Name: 定錨效應：為什麼第一次報價很重要？ (The Anchoring Bias: Why The First Offer Matters)
Uploaded: 2025-05-21T21:01:10.000Z
Duration: 4 min 5 s

讓我們做一個簡單的心理測試。

Do you think the average German car costs more than $90,000?

你認為德國汽車的平均售價超過 9 萬美元嗎？

That's the question Professor Michael Morris of Columbia University asked his class of MBA students in order to trick them using a phenomenon known as anchoring.

這是哥倫比亞大學的邁克爾-莫里斯教授向他的 MBA 學生們提出的問題，目的是利用一種被稱為定錨效應的現象來欺騙他們。

Anchoring is a cognitive bias that makes you rely too heavily on the first piece of information presented, the anchor, no matter how arbitrary it may seem, it pulls your thoughts, judgments and decisions towards it.

定錨效應是一種認知偏差，它會讓你過分依賴第一條資訊，即 "錨"，無論它看起來多麼武斷，它都會把你的想法、判斷和決定拉向它。

In negotiations, for example, priming the other party with an initial offer sets an anchor that can heavily influence the final outcome,

例如，在談判中，用最初的報價來引誘對方，就會設置一個錨，嚴重影響最終的結果，

even if both parties know that the initial offer is absurd, the final agreement often gravitates towards that first figure.

即使雙方都知道最初的報價是荒謬的，最終的協議也往往傾向於最初的數字。

In medicine, studies show that doctors are often overly influenced by the initial information they receive, which can lead to screening errors, a false diagnosis and the wrong treatment plan.

在醫學領域，研究表明，醫生往往會受到最初所獲資訊的過度影響，從而導致篩查錯誤、誤診和錯誤的治療方案。

Even the smartest among us, who are trying to arrive at a logical conclusion, have an intuition that has already been swayed by the anchor, which pulls our thoughts towards a biased conclusion.

即使是我們中最聰明的人，在試圖得出一個合乎邏輯的結論時，直覺也已經被錨所左右，將我們的思維拉向一個有偏見的結論。

A fascinating experiment by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman first introduced the idea in 1971.

1971 年，阿莫斯-特沃斯基（Amos Tversky）和丹尼爾-卡尼曼（Daniel Kahneman）的一項引人入勝的實驗首次提出了這一觀點。

The two psychologists asked people to spin a rigged wheel with numbers ranging from 1 to 100.

這兩位心理學家要求人們轉動一個裝有 1 到 100 個數字的轉盤。

Afterwards, participants were asked to estimate how many African countries were members of the United Nations.

隨後，與會者被要求估計有多少非洲國家是聯合國會員國。

The result? Those who saw a high number on the spinning wheel gave much higher estimates than those who saw a low number.

結果，看到轉盤上數字高的人比看到數字低的人估計的數字要高得多。

But does this work on Morris's smart MBA students?

但這對莫里斯聰明的 MBA 學生有用嗎？

Before Professor Morris ran his experiment, he separated his students into two groups.

在做實驗之前，莫里斯教授把學生抽成兩組，

One group was asked if they thought that the average German car from last year cost more than $90,000,  while the other was asked if it cost more than 30,000.

一組被問及是否認為去年的德國汽車平均價格超過 9 萬美元，另一組被問及是否超過 3 萬美元。

After doing this for many years, Professor Morris found that his students who were anchored by the $90,000 figure estimated the average price to be between $45,000 and $50,000,

經過多年的實踐，莫里斯教授發現，他的學生以 9 萬美元為基準，估計平均價格在 4.5 萬至 5 萬美元之間，

while those anchored by the $30,000 figure estimated it to be between $35,000 and $40,000.

而以 3 萬美元為基準，估計平均價格在 3.5 萬至 4 萬美元之間。

The anchors, regardless of the number, had pulled their judgments in that direction.

無論錨的數量為何，他們的判斷都是朝著這個方向進行的。

When Morris asked his students to explain how they arrived at their conclusions, they claimed that they used their knowledge to make a rational estimate.

當莫里斯要求他的學生解釋他們是如何得出結論時，他們聲稱自己是利用所學知識進行合理估算的。

Only when the professor dug deeper did one group mention high-end brands like Mercedes, while the other thought of more affordable cars like Volkswagen.

只有當教授深入調查時，一組人才會提到賓士等高端品牌，而另一組人則會想到大眾等更經濟實惠的汽車。

It is as if the pictures that arrive in the students' heads when they are primed by the anchor decide where they land with their estimates.

在錨點的引導下，學生腦海中浮現的畫面彷彿決定了他們的估算結果。

Intuition drives more than 90% of our thinking and behavior, Morris concluded.

直覺驅動著我們 90% 以上的思維和行為，莫里斯總結道。

How did you answer? Were you influenced by our anchor at the beginning of the video to give estimates closer to $90,000, like the MBA students?

你的回答如何？你是否受到影片開頭錨的影響，像 MBA 學生一樣給出了接近 9 萬美元的估價？

Share your experiences with anchoring in the comments below.

在下面的評論中分享你的定錨效應經驗。

We relentlessly researched education for the past decade, read plenty of peer-reviewed papers, visited all sorts of schools, created hundreds of videos on the topic,

過去十年，我們堅持不懈地研究教育，閱讀了大量同行評議的論文，參觀了各種學校，製作了數百部相關視頻，

and even set up our very own kindergarten for project-based learning, and now, we also made a book.

甚至建立了自己的幼兒園，開展基於項目的學習，現在，我們還出了一本書。

The Unschooler's Educational Dictionary covers everything we know about learning, unveils the unintended consequences of compulsory education, and includes a complete guide to the alternative school movement.

《非學校主義者教育詞典》涵蓋了我們對學習的一切認識，揭示了義務教育的意外後果，還包括另類學校運動的完整指南。

Just visit your favorite bookshop or check the links in the description below.

請訪問你喜愛的書店或查看下面說明欄中的連結。

If you found this helpful, check out our other videos, join us on YouTube or on patreon.com/sprouts.

如果你覺得這對你有幫助，請查看我們的其他影片，加入我們的 YouTube 或 patreon.com/sprouts。

For more information, classroom exercises or videos without background music, visit sproutsschools.com.

如需瞭解更多資訊、課堂練習或無背景音樂影片，請訪問 sproutsschools.com。