Name: 特朗普的關稅會讓美國經濟萎縮嗎？| 特朗普的 100 天 | BBC Americast (Could Trump's tariffs shrink the US economy? | 100 Days of Trump | BBC Americast)
Uploaded: 2025-05-03T00:10:47.000Z
Duration: 13 min 29 s

I'm Matt Chorley in the AmeriCast studio in London.

我是倫敦 AmeriCast 演播室的 Matt Chorley。

I'm Justin Webb, also in the worldwide headquarters of AmeriCast, as we call it, Matt, in London.

我是賈斯汀-韋伯（Justin Webb），也在我們所說的 AmeriCast 全球總部，馬特，倫敦。

And I'm Sarah Smith in our BBC bureau in Washington, DC.

我是英國廣播公司華盛頓分社的薩拉-史密斯。

So, inevitably, if we're going to talk about the economy, we'll end up talking about tariffs.

是以，如果我們要談經濟，最終不可避免地要談關稅。

But, you know, we've talked an awful lot about the impact of it around the world.

但是，你知道，我們已經談了很多關於它對全世界的影響。

But let's look at what is actually happening in the US.

但讓我們看看美國的實際情況。

讓我們聽聽真正的美國人怎麼說。

This is Sarah Wells, who runs a small business in Virginia, making bags.

這位是莎拉-韋爾斯，她在弗吉尼亞州經營著一家制作箱包的小企業。

I was actually bringing over some goods from China.

實際上，我從中國帶了一些貨物過來。

And in the midst of shipping those over here, the first 20 percent tariff hit.

在把這些產品運到這裡的過程中，20% 的關稅就開始徵收了。

And I had to come up with the cash for that.

I had to put up just over $15,000 to get my goods out of the port that I hadn't expected to have.

我不得不拿出 1.5 萬多美元來把我的貨物運出港口，這是我沒有想到的。

At this point, it might as well be 1,000 percent.

在這一點上，還不如說是 1000%。

It's just insurmountable for small businesses.

這對小企業來說是難以克服的。

That exceeds the cost of the manufactured product.

That's obviously a reminder of just what tariffs are, a tax on imports.

這顯然是在提醒人們關稅是什麼，是一種進口稅。

And a reminder this is having an impact inside America, rather than the global conversation that we've been having in Britain and Europe and elsewhere.

這也提醒我們，這是在美國國內產生的影響，而不是我們在英國、歐洲和其他地方進行的全球對話。

And Donald Trump doesn't like to acknowledge that this is going to have an impact inside America and that it's going to put prices up.

唐納德-特朗普不願意承認這會對美國國內產生影響，也不願意承認這會導致物價上漲。

He seems to think that the countries exporting the goods to America will somehow have to swallow the tariff.

他似乎認為，向美國出口商品的國家在某種程度上必須吞下關稅。

But of course, it's going to hurt people who are importing things from countries that have had these big tariffs put upon them.

當然，這也會傷害到那些從被徵收鉅額關稅的國家進口商品的人們。

Some huge retailers like Walmart, Home Depot and Target have been telling the White House the shelves will be empty soon with these tariffs against China, because it's going to have a real impact in America and it will probably put prices up, which is going to hurt Donald Trump a lot with the people who voted for him precisely because he said he would curb inflation and bring consumer prices down again.

一些大型零售商，如沃爾瑪、家得寶和塔吉特已經告訴白宮，對中國徵收關稅後，貨架很快就會被清空，因為這將對美國產生真正的影響，很可能會導致物價上漲，這將對唐納德-特朗普造成很大傷害，因為他曾說過他將抑制通脹，使消費價格再次下降，而這些人正是把票投給了他。

Justin, are they two separate thoughts from Donald Trump in terms of the economy?

賈斯汀，這是唐納德-特朗普在經濟方面的兩個不同想法嗎？

He wants to use tariffs to bring back old industries, make America great again and all that, while also promising to bring down the cost of living.

他希望用關稅來振興老工業，讓美國再次偉大，同時還承諾降低生活成本。

I suspect we might talk about eggs in a moment, but groceries more generally.

我想我們一會兒可以談談雞蛋，但更多的是食品雜貨。

Is it two separate thoughts or does he think that one leads to the other?

這是兩種不同的想法，還是他認為一種想法會導致另一種想法？

He thinks that if you have tariffs in the longer term, you bring back a load of jobs to America and a load of manufacturing to America and a load of kind of...

他認為，從長遠來看，如果徵收關稅，就會為美國帶來大量就業機會，為美國帶來大量製造業，為美國帶來大量......

It's more than just the jobs and the manufacturing, actually.

事實上，這不僅僅是就業和製造業的問題。

Civic life, a load of things happen again in localities in America that have essentially stopped happening.

在公民生活中，美國各地又發生了大量基本上已經停止發生的事情。

You think of the Rust Belt, the kind of classic places where there used to be all these steel mills and things, now there aren't anymore.

你會想到 "鐵鏽地帶"（Rust Belt），那些曾經有鋼鐵廠的地方，現在已經沒有了。

But he thinks that what the tariffs do is eventually, after a pause, after some difficulties, and he's admitted that there might be one or two difficulties, but after those difficulties, you revivify, you re-energize those parts of America that have not been vivified and energized for some time.

但他認為，關稅的作用最終是，在暫停之後，在經歷了一些困難之後，他承認可能會有一兩次困難，但在這些困難之後，你會讓美國那些已經有一段時間沒有生機和活力的地區重新煥發生機和活力。

And in that way, you then stimulate the economy locally because people have money in their pockets because they're doing these wonderful jobs again.

這樣一來，你就能刺激當地的經濟，因為人們口袋裡有錢了，因為他們又能從事這些出色的工作了。

And that is the way in which America benefits eventually from what seems to be this incredibly strong medicine.

這就是美國最終受益於這種看似強大無比的藥物的方式。

Eventually, he's doing a lot of work in that, though, isn't it, Sal?

最終，他在這方面做了很多工作，不是嗎，薩爾？

It will eventually attract manufacturing and jobs back to America only if it's so expensive to source parts or components or goods from elsewhere that it's worth building a new factory, finding an entire workforce and basing your production here.

只有當從其他地方採購零部件或商品的成本非常昂貴，值得在這裡建造新工廠、尋找全部勞動力並將生產基地設在這裡時，它才會最終吸引製造業和工作崗位回到美國。

So that means things are going to have to be pretty highly priced to make that worth doing, and those are prices that Americans consumers are going to have to bear.

是以，這就意味著必須要有相當高的價格，才值得這樣做，而這些價格是美國消費者必須承擔的。

And before you start building new factories and moving whole parts of your business back into America, you want to know what's going to greet you there in two, three, four, ten years' time.

在你開始建造新工廠並將整個業務遷回美國之前，你要知道兩年、三年、四年、十年後迎接你的將是什麼。

You need a degree of certainty before you can put that kind of investment and planning in.

在進行這種投資和規劃之前，你需要有一定程度的把握。

And the way Donald Trump is hopping around, changing the tariff regime, changing his policies, hinting one thing one day, doing something else the next, that is not an environment in which you can imagine people wanting to make multi-billion dollar investments in revivifying American industry.

唐納德-特朗普四處跳槽，改變關稅制度，改變政策，今天暗示一件事，明天又做另一件事，在這種環境下，你無法想象人們會願意投資數十億美元來振興美國工業。

And then on top of that, and it's worth adding, the kind of factories of the future aren't going to employ many people anyway.

此外，值得補充的是，未來的工廠無論如何都不會僱用很多人。

So if you're going to bring back kind of low value, low margin jobs to America, that's hopeless because nobody would want to do them and the money won't be good enough.

是以，如果你想把低價值、低利潤的工作帶回美國，那是沒有希望的，因為沒有人願意做這些工作，錢也不夠好賺。

So even if you dropped a car factory in Detroit again, it's not going to employ thousands of people?

所以，即使在底特律再建一家汽車廠，也不會僱傭成千上萬的員工？

No, and in the longer term, we'll employ three people pressing a button somewhere else and it'll be entirely robotic.

不，從長遠來看，我們會僱傭三個人在其他地方按一個按鈕，而且完全是機器人操作。

And the idea, and you know, in many respects, maybe that works for an economy in the modern era.

這個想法，你知道，從很多方面來說，也許在現代經濟中是可行的。

Maybe we are going to see a lot of reshoring that goes on right around the world and specifically in America.

也許，我們將看到大量的再生產活動在世界各地進行，特別是在美國。

Maybe Americans do consume a lot of the goods they make and if they can make those goods at home and continue to make them, then that's not a bad thing for the American economy.

也許美國人確實消費了很多他們製造的商品，如果他們能在國內製造這些商品並繼續製造下去，那麼這對美國經濟來說並非壞事。

But the idea, as Sarah points out, that suddenly there's going to be thousands of wonderful jobs, these kind of classic jobs, 1970s jobs, where the man, because it always was, the man went out to work and earned enough money to come back and the whole family...

但是，正如莎拉所指出的，突然間會有成千上萬的好工作，這些經典的工作，20世紀70年代的工作，男人，因為它始終是，男人出去工作，賺足夠的錢回來，整個家庭......

All these things that actually classically, I mean, there's a bit of truth in it.

我的意思是，所有這些東西其實都是經典，都有一定的道理。

它確實發生過，但已經過去了。

The idea that it comes back now in the modern American economy is crazy.

在現代美國經濟中，這種想法是瘋狂的。

在嘗試分析時，這樣做有用嗎？

There is the aim, which is Donald Trump says he wants to bring back these things and make people pay if they're going to take industries away from you.

唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）說，他想把這些東西帶回來，如果他們要奪走你的產業，就要讓人們付出代價。

So there's the aim and there's the ways going about it and the chopping and changing and the tariffs are on, tariffs are off.

是以，有了目標，就有了實現目標的方式，就有了 "砍砍改改"、"開徵關稅 "和 "取消關稅"。

我們在做這個，我們在做那個。

So even if business were on board with the aim, and actually business always say, we will go along with almost anything as long as you announce it and then you leave it alone and then we can stick with it.

是以，即使企業界同意這一目標，而且實際上企業界總是說，只要你宣佈了，我們幾乎什麼都會同意，然後你就別管它了，然後我們就可以堅持下去。

And actually it's the method rather than the aim which is causing so much instability.

實際上，是方法而不是目的造成了如此多的不穩定。

Absolutely, because you've got the fact that he doesn't seem to be settled on a policy from one day to the next.

完全正確，因為他似乎從早到晚都沒有確定一項政策。

But also he's chopping and changing the entire idea because as soon as he had announced some fairly steep tariffs on most countries around the world, the markets got very yippy, as he put it, and he started changing his policy again.

但他也在不斷改變整個想法，因為他剛宣佈對全球大多數國家徵收相當高的關稅，市場就變得非常躁動，正如他所說的那樣，他又開始改變政策了。

Suddenly he paused most of the tariffs for 90 days and said he wanted to do trade deals with these countries to lower the tariffs, which is entirely against the idea, of course, that you keep them high enough to force people to reshore their manufacturing to America.

突然間，他將大部分關稅暫停了90天，並說他想與這些國家達成貿易協議以降低關稅，當然，這完全違背了他的想法，即保持足夠高的關稅以迫使人們將製造業轉移到美國。

We don't even know what direction he's going in here, whether he's wanting to lower prices or whether he's wanting to deliberately keep them high over the longer term.

我們甚至不知道他的方向是什麼，是想降低價格，還是想故意長期保持高價。

So if our sort of big question is in this episode, is he making America wealthy again?

所以，如果我們在這一集裡的大問題是，他是否能讓美國再次富裕起來？

Let's hear in his own words Donald Trump setting out his aims with this.

讓我們聽聽唐納德-特朗普用自己的話闡述他的目標。

April 2nd, 2025 will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again.

2025 年 4 月 2 日將作為美國工業重生之日、美國命運重獲之日以及我們開始讓美國再次富裕之日而被永遠銘記。

We're going to make it wealthy, good and wealthy.

我們要讓它變得富裕、美好和富有。

I mean, we'll put aside the eventually plan.

我的意思是，我們暫且不談最終計劃。

Right now, America's getting worse off, aren't they?

現在，美國的情況越來越糟，不是嗎？

Number one thing, America is an incredibly wealthy country and incredibly economically successful.

首先，美國是一個無比富裕的國家，在經濟上無比成功。

You look at the graphs, all the graphs about growth in the world since Covid, and you look at the amazing way in which the American economy bounced back.

你看看圖表，看看自科維德事件以來世界經濟增長的所有圖表，你就會發現美國經濟反彈的驚人方式。

There is an incredible strength and vigour about America.

美國有一種令人難以置信的力量和活力。

All the kind of classic sort of cliches about America and Americans and their energy and vigour and all the rest of it are actually true.

所有關於美國和美國人的經典陳詞濫調，以及他們的精力和活力等等，其實都是真實的。

And the American economy is an incredible powerhouse.

美國經濟是一個令人難以置信的動力源。

The American economy is thriving, but not for everybody.

美國經濟欣欣向榮，但並非人人如此。

And so the problem that Donald Trump has identified is the right one.

是以，唐納德-特朗普所指出的問題是正確的。

He's looking at communities that have been completely hollowed out and left behind by globalisation, where manufacturing jobs did disappear.

他看到的是被全球化完全掏空和遺棄的社區，那裡的製造業工作確實消失了。

Donald Trump gets a lot of his support from these left behind communities that were so hurt by the industrialisation.

唐納德-特朗普的很多支持都來自這些被工業化嚴重傷害的落後社區。

And that's, I think, why he's so obsessed with this idea of creating a golden age of manufacturing again.

我認為，這就是為什麼他如此痴迷於再次創造製造業黃金時代的想法。

It's just that that's not necessarily what the future for the American economy should be or what he's going to create.

只是，這不一定是美國經濟的未來，也不一定是他要創造的未來。

But he's not wrong in identifying that there are whole swathes of the Rust Belt, for instance, where the economy is not working for ordinary Americans.

但他也沒有說錯，比如在 "鐵鏽地帶"（Rust Belt）的大片地區，普通美國人的經濟並不景氣。

And it's that, you know, every political cliche, it's the economy's stupid.

這就是，你知道，每一個政治陳詞濫調，這是經濟的愚蠢。

你知道，這是生活成本的問題。

It's the question, do you feel better now than you did four years ago?

問題是，你現在比四年前感覺更好嗎？

And you saw it during the election campaign.

When I was in the US for a week, all the people we spoke to were talking about the cost of living and the price of eggs.

我在美國待了一個星期，所有與我們交談過的人都在談論生活成本和雞蛋價格。

And yet you look at, when you're talking about putting imports, tariffs on imports, 60% of fresh fruit in the US is imported, 30% of fresh vegetables, 70% of toys are imported.

然而你看看，當你談到對進口商品徵收關稅時，美國60%的新鮮水果是進口的，30%的新鮮蔬菜和70%的玩具是進口的。

So if you're putting those tariffs on, it's going to have the opposite impact, isn't it?

是以，如果你徵收這些關稅，就會產生相反的影響，不是嗎？

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特朗普的關稅會讓美國經濟萎縮嗎？| 特朗普的 100 天 | BBC Americast (Could Trump's tariffs shrink the US economy? | 100 Days of Trump | BBC Americast)

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