Name: 生育率全世界最低！南韓要完蛋了嗎？ (SOUTH KOREA IS OVER)
Uploaded: 2025-04-03T21:01:30.000Z
Duration: 14 min 47 s

This sounds brutal, but South Korea will soon start melting on all fronts.

這聽起來很殘酷，但韓國很快就會在各條戰線上開始融化。

情態副詞

Demographically, economically, socially, culturally, and militarily.

在人口、經濟、社會、文化和軍事方面。

Because for decades, the country has been experiencing a fertility crisis unprecedented in human history.

因為幾十年來，我國經歷了人類歷史上前所未有的生育危機。

And we've probably reached a point of no return.

我們可能已經到了無法回頭的地步。

By 2060, the South Korea we know and love today will no longer exist.

到 2060 年，我們今天所熟悉和喜愛的韓國將不復存在。

And why is it now almost impossible to stop?

To have a stable population, you need a fertility rate of about 2.1 children per woman.

要實現人口穩定，每名婦女需要生育約 2.1 個孩子。

In the 1950s, South Koreans used to have 6 children on average.

20 世紀 50 年代，韓國人平均生育 6 個孩子。

在 20 世紀 80 年代，該比率降至 2.0 以下。

And in 2023, it was 0.72 kids per woman, the lowest ever recorded in history.

而在 2023 年，每名婦女生育 0.72 個孩子，為歷史最低記錄。

In Seoul, fertility is even lower, around 0.55.

首爾的生育率更低，約為 0.55。

On average, about half of the women here won't have any kids, and the other half just one.

平均而言，這裡約有一半的女性不會有孩子，另一半隻有一個。

What do these numbers actually mean in the real world?

這些數字在現實世界中究竟意味著什麼？

If fertility stays as it is, then 100 South Koreans will have 36 kids.

如果生育率保持不變，那麼 100 個韓國人將有 36 個孩子。

When they grow up, they will have 13 kids, who will then have 5.

長大後，他們會有 13 個孩子，而這些孩子又會有 5 個。

Within 4 generations, 100 South Koreans will turn into 5.

四代之內，100 個韓國人將變成 5 個。

If we look at today's South Korean population pyramid, we see this is pretty real.

如果我們看一看今天的韓國人口金字塔，就會發現這是非常真實的。

There's only one 1-year-old for 4 50-year-olds.

4 個 50 歲的人只有一個 1 歲的孩子。

After 4 decades below the replacement level, the consequences were still largely invisible.

在低於更替水準 40 年之後，其後果在很大程度上仍未顯現。

Today, South Korea's population is at an all-time high, as are its workforce and its GDP, which is still growing.

如今，韓國的人口、勞動力和國內生產總值都達到了歷史最高水準，而且仍在不斷增長。

But demographics hits you like a freight train.

但是，人口統計就像一列貨運列車一樣撞擊著你。

You hear it vaguely in the distance, and then it runs you over.

你隱約聽到遠處有聲音，然後它就碾過你。

Let's time travel 35 years into the future, to 2060, and see what the country will look like then.

讓我們穿越時空，回到 35 年後的 2060 年，看看那時的國家會是什麼樣子。

When it comes to demographics, the most commonly used projections are those put together by the UN.

在人口統計方面，最常用的是聯合國的預測。

They envisage three scenarios, low fertility, medium, and high.

他們設想了三種情況，即低生育率、中生育率和高生育率。

But in the past, all medium UN projections for South Korea have consistently been too positive.

但在過去，聯合國對韓國的所有中期預測一直過於樂觀。

Between 2022 and 2023 alone, fertility in South Korea dropped by another 8%.

僅在 2022 年至 2023 年期間，韓國的生育率就將再下降 8%。

So we're going to use the latest low fertility scenario, which has been the most accurate in the last few years.

是以，我們將採用最新的低生育率方案，這是過去幾年中最準確的方案。

Keep in mind that we're still talking about projections, and the future is a faraway land.

請記住，我們談論的仍然是預測，而未來是一個遙遠的國度。

In 2060, South Korea's population pyramid will look like this.

2060 年，韓國的人口金字塔將是這樣的。

The population will have shrunk by 30%. 16 million South Koreans will have disappeared in just 35 years.

人口將減少 30%。1 600 萬韓國人將在短短 35 年內消失。

And it'll be the oldest country in human history. 1 in 2 South Koreans will be over the age of 65.

它將成為人類歷史上最老的國家。每兩個韓國人中就有一個超過 65 歲。

不到十分之一的人年齡在 25 歲以下。

And only 1 in 100 will be small children.

而每 100 人中只有 1 人是幼兒。

Imagine waking up in a country where the streets are strangely quiet with no children playing on them.

想象一下，一覺醒來，你發現自己身處一個陌生的國度，街道上異常安靜，沒有孩子在玩耍。

Half of the population is elderly and living either alone or in overcrowded retirement homes.

半數人口為老年人，他們要麼獨居，要麼住在擁擠不堪的養老院裡。

With a minority of people desperately trying to keep society running.

In 2023, a breathtaking 40% of South Koreans over 65 live below the poverty line.

到 2023 年，65 歲以上的韓國人中，將有 40% 生活在貧困線以下，這一數字令人震驚。

But in 2060, this number may seem lovely in comparison.

但到了 2060 年，這個數字相比之下可能就顯得可愛了。

Today, South Korea has one of the largest pension funds in the world, worth about US$730 billion.

如今，韓國擁有世界上最大的養老基金之一，價值約 7 300 億美元。

But it's projected to stop growing in the 2040s and be completely depleted by the 2050s.

但預計到 2040 年代將停止增長，到 2050 年代將完全耗盡。

So in 2060, pensions will have to be paid by the working population.

是以，到 2060 年，養老金必須由勞動人口來支付。

Estimates vary, but for a pension system to work, the minimum a society needs is between 2 to 3 workers per retiree paying for them with their taxes.

估計數字不盡相同，但要使養老金制度行之有效，一個社會至少需要每個退休人員有 2 到 3 名工人用稅收來支付養老金。

But even if we assume that all South Koreans over 15 will be working in 2060, the country will have less than 1 worker per senior.

但是，即使我們假設所有 15 歲以上的韓國人都將在 2060 年參加工作，該國每名老年人擁有的勞動力也將不足 1 人。

Workers will be unable to stem the incredible costs.

工人們將無法承受驚人的成本。

So not only will poverty among the elderly be common, but a big chunk will be forced to work.

是以，老年人不僅普遍貧困，而且很大一部分將被迫工作。

Except, they may not be able to find jobs because by 2060, the South Korean economy may have collapsed.

只是，他們可能找不到工作，因為到 2060 年，韓國經濟可能已經崩潰。

Broadly speaking, the size of an economy is linked to the size of its workforce.

廣義上講，一個經濟體的規模與其勞動力規模相關。

To have a big economy, you need a lot of workers to produce a lot of things and a lot more people to buy them.

要有一個龐大的經濟體，就需要大量的工人來生產大量的產品，也需要更多的人來購買這些產品。

Today, South Korea has about 37 million people of working age, generating a GDP of about 1.7 trillion US dollars.

如今，韓國約有 3700 萬勞動適齡人口，創造了約 1.7 萬億美元的國內生產總值。

But by 2060, its workforce would have shrunk to less than half, to about 17 million.

但到 2060 年，其勞動力將縮減到不足一半，約為 1700 萬人。

Of course, technological progress means that productivity will be higher, and each individual will probably produce more than today.

當然，技術進步意味著生產率會提高，每個人的產量可能會比現在更高。

But even if productivity keeps growing at the same rate or more than we've seen in the last decades, South Korea's GDP could peak in the 2040s.

但是，即使生產率保持與過去幾十年相同或更高的增長速度，韓國的 GDP 也可能在 2040 年代達到頂峰。

In other words, South Korea will enter a permanent economic recession.

換句話說，韓國將進入長期的經濟衰退。

There are more optimistic projections that see the recession begin as late as 2050, but they're based on the medium UN demographic scenario, and there are no signs that we're heading there.

有更樂觀的預測認為，衰退最晚將在 2050 年開始，但這些預測是基於聯合國的中度人口假設，沒有跡象表明我們正在走向衰退。

Another factor in the economy is science, technology, and innovation, areas in which big leaps are typically made by young adults and the middle-aged.

經濟中的另一個因素是科學、技術和創新，這些領域的重大飛躍通常是由青壯年和中年人實現的。

Young people have fresh ideas that contribute to the wealth of society.

年輕人有新想法，能為社會財富做出貢獻。

Significantly fewer people working also means way less tax for the government, which will be trapped between a rock and a hard place.

工作人數的大幅減少也意味著政府稅收的大幅減少，政府將陷入進退兩難的境地。

On the one hand, having to provide for half the population that are seniors, on the other, seeing its income diminish.

一方面，要養活一半的老年人，另一方面，收入又在減少。

It will be forced to shut down or cut essential services like hospitals or social benefits.

政府將被迫關閉或削減醫院或社會福利等基本服務。

Since infrastructure only works at scale, smaller communities may be abandoned as the country contracts into its metropolitan areas.

由於基礎設施只能在一定規模上發揮作用，隨著國家向大都市區收縮，較小的社區可能會被遺棄。

And of course, there won't be enough money to invest in the future.

當然，也不會有足夠的錢來投資未來。

But what will happen to South Korean society and culture may be worse.

但是，韓國社會和文化將面臨的情況可能更糟。

Speculating on how societies will develop is extra hard, but there are a few pretty unavoidable trends.

推測社會將如何發展是一件非常困難的事情，但有一些趨勢是不可避免的。

Today, already about 20% of Koreans live alone.

如今，已有約 20% 的韓國人獨自生活。

Also, 20% report having no close friends or relatives.

此外，20% 的人表示沒有親朋好友。

By 2060, 50% of South Koreans aged 70 will have no siblings and 30% will have no children.

到 2060 年，50% 的 70 歲韓國人將沒有兄弟姐妹，30% 將沒有子女。

Young adults between 25 and 35 will only make up 5% of the population and typically have no siblings at all.

25 至 35 歲的年輕人只佔總人口的 5%，而且通常沒有兄弟姐妹。

This leaves the elderly with almost no close family and young adults with little family and few potential friends, especially outside of big cities.

這就使得老年人幾乎沒有近親，而年輕人幾乎沒有家人，潛在的朋友也很少，尤其是在大城市之外。

A loneliness epidemic of epic proportions is all but guaranteed.

一場史詩般規模的孤獨流行病幾乎已成定局。

On top of that, South Korean culture will probably experience a huge decline.

除此之外，韓國文化可能也將經歷巨大的衰落。

In 2000, there were 17.5 million South Koreans between 25 and 45 and they made up 37% of the population.

2000 年，25 至 45 歲的韓國人有 1 750 萬，佔總人口的 37%。

This was the generation that brought us K-pop, K-drama, K-food and many other trends that spread around the world.

正是這一代人為我們帶來了 K-pop、K-drama、K-food 以及其他許多風靡全球的潮流。

In 2060, there will be just 5.6 million people in that age group and they'll only be 16% of the population.

到 2060 年，這個年齡段的人口將只有 560 萬，只佔總人口的 16%。

Many cultural traditions are already struggling because the older generations are having trouble finding young people to pass them on to.

許多文化傳統已經陷入困境，因為老一輩人很難找到年輕人將其傳承下去。

As young people disappear, many traditions will die out.

隨著年輕人的消失，許多傳統也將隨之消亡。

Without young people, the soul of South Korean culture will shrink and wither away.

沒有年輕人，韓國文化的靈魂就會萎縮和枯萎。

And on a personal level, what kind of experience will it be growing up in 2060?

就個人而言，2060 年的成長經歷會是怎樣的呢？

What will youth culture be like in a country of seniors?

在一個老年人的國度裡，青年文化會是什麼樣子？

Where many universities, schools and kindergartens are abandoned as there are no longer children to fill them with life.

許多大學、學校和幼兒園被遺棄，因為不再有孩子讓它們充滿生機。

What kind of job prospects will they face and what will politics look like?

If young people don't want to remain alone, they'll concentrate in Seoul or a few other big cities or worse for South Korea, emigrate to other countries.

如果年輕人不甘寂寞，他們會集中在首爾或其他幾個大城市，或者移民到其他國家。

Rural areas will decline and most smaller cities will turn into ghost towns.

農村地區將衰落，大多數小城市將變成鬼城。

We're already seeing this in Japan, which has almost 10 million abandoned houses in rural areas.

我們已經在日本看到了這種情況，該國農村地區有近 1,000 萬間廢棄房屋。

Large parts of South Korea will simply vanish and be reclaimed by nature.

韓國的大部分地區將消失，由大自然重新開墾。

Last but not least, South and North Korea are technically at war and they could very well still be in 2060.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，南朝鮮和北朝鮮在技術上處於戰爭狀態，而且很可能在 2060 年依然如此。

Will South Korea still be able to afford to have its young men do 18 months of mandatory military service?

韓國還有能力讓年輕人服 18 個月的義務兵役嗎？

Today, 5% of men of combat age are enrolled in the military.

如今，5% 的適齡男性參軍入伍。

In 2060, it would have to be 15% just to match today's numbers.

到 2060 年，這一比例必須達到 15%，才能與今天的數字相匹配。

字幕列表影片播放

生育率全世界最低！南韓要完蛋了嗎？ (SOUTH KOREA IS OVER)

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