Name: 為什麼年輕人都不想生小孩了？ (nOboDy wAnTs tO HaVe kIdS AnyMore)
Uploaded: 2025-03-08T21:01:30.000Z
Duration: 11 min 18 s

情態副詞

The end of the Second World War resulted in a massive spike in fertility across the world that gave rise to the largest generation in history, the aptly named Baby Boomers.

第二次世界大戰結束後，全球生育率大幅飆升，催生了歷史上人數最多的一代人，即 "嬰兒潮 "一代。

Soldiers returned home young, dumb, and full of patriotic spirit.

阿兵哥們年輕、懵懂、充滿愛國精神地返回家鄉。

And especially here in America, this family-centered growth coincided with what many believed to be the golden age of capitalism.

特別是在美國，這種以家庭為中心的發展恰逢許多人認為的資本主義黃金時代。

Homes were cheap, the free market was providing new-fangled products to consume, jobs could provide a stable and comfortable living, and the only thing left to do was get busy starting a family.

當時的房價便宜，自由市場提供新奇的消費產品，工作可以提供穩定舒適的生活，唯一要做的就是忙著成家立業。

Now, this sounds like such a rose-tinted version of history that borders on being inaccurate, but that doesn't actually matter.

現在，這聽起來像是玫瑰色的歷史版本，幾乎是不準確的，但實際上這並不重要。

Today, we are dealing with expensive homes, over-consumption of disposable consumer junk, and jobs that are extremely insecure.

今天，我們面對的是昂貴的住房、過度消費的一次性消費垃圾和極不穩定的工作。

So naturally, the most pressing question for governments around the world is, how to make people make babies again?

是以，世界各國政府面臨的最緊迫問題自然是：如何讓人們再次生育？

Child care is now more expensive than rent for working families and is costing the economy more than $122 billion a year.

對於工薪家庭來說，兒童保育現在比房租還貴，每年造成的經濟損失超過 1220 億美元。

Their child care expenses from their income taxes, that's a first.

從所得稅中扣除他們的育兒費用，這還是頭一遭。

What is the biggest thing that needs to change here in South Korea to make this more appealing for women?

在韓國，為了讓這一行業對女性更有吸引力，需要改變的最大因素是什麼？

Starting next year, South Korea will pay a child care allowance of around US$530 to parents with newborns.

從明年開始，韓國將向有新生兒的父母支付約 530 美元的育兒津貼。

The biggest issue in 20 years will be population collapse, not explosion, collapse.

20 年後最大的問題將是人口崩潰，而不是爆炸、崩潰。

An uncontrolled population decline is a very concerning issue that will have serious impacts on all of us who are planning to live for more than the next 20 years.

人口無節制地減少是一個非常令人擔憂的問題，它將對我們所有計劃在未來生活 20 年以上的人產生嚴重影響。

But it's important to distinguish between people who are concerned about what a population decline represents and people who are concerned about not having a ready stream of available labor produced for them.

但重要的是，要把擔心人口減少的人和擔心沒有現成的可用勞動力的人區分開來。

They may sound similar, but there are two very distinct solutions depending on how you look at the problem or if you even consider it a problem at all.

這兩個問題聽起來很相似，但有兩種截然不同的解決方案，這取決於你如何看待這個問題，或者你是否認為這是一個問題。

To see why, we need to clear up some history.

為了弄清原因，我們需要釐清一些歷史。

The exact cause of the 1950s baby boom was not as simple as people just returning home from war and getting to it.

20 世紀 50 年代嬰兒潮的確切原因並不像人們剛剛從戰爭中返回家園並開始工作那麼簡單。

The easiest way to see this is that there was no baby boom after the first world war.

最簡單的解釋就是，第一次世界大戰後沒有出現嬰兒潮。

In fact, after 1918 and a brief dip during the Spanish flu, birth rates dropped to levels very similar to today, which kind of goes against the narrative.

事實上，1918 年之後，以及西班牙流感期間的短暫下降，出生率下降到了與今天非常相似的水準，這有點違背了人們的說法。

If you've paid any attention to general media coverage of population collapse, you have probably been told that this is an entirely modern phenomenon caused by, well, whatever problem with the modern world you want to pick, but that's not entirely accurate.

如果你關注過媒體關於人口崩潰的報道，你可能會被告知，這完全是一種現代現象，是由現代世界的任何問題造成的，但這並不完全準確。

In fact, the fertility rate back here was actually worse than it looks.

事實上，這裡的生育率比看上去的還要糟糕。

To understand why, you need to understand two numbers.

要了解原因，你需要了解兩個數字。

The fertility rate, normally expressed in the number of births per woman, and also the replacement rate.

生育率，通常用每名婦女的生育數量表示，也是更替率。

The replacement rate is how many children the average woman needs to have to maintain the population.

更替率是指平均每名婦女需要生育多少個孩子才能維持人口數量。

Today in America, and most other high-income countries, that number is about 2.1 children per woman.

如今，在美國和大多數其他高收入國家，這一數字約為每名婦女 2.1 個孩子。

The 2 is because the population is naturally split 50-50 between men and women.

2 是因為人口中男女自然各佔一半。

So to account for that, the average woman needs to have two children.

是以，考慮到這一點，一般婦女需要生育兩個孩子。

And the .1 is because tragically, some children don't make it to adulthood where they could potentially have children of their own.

之所以是.1，是因為不幸的是，有些孩子無法長大成人，無法擁有自己的孩子。

Now, everybody from politicians across the political spectrum to your weird uncle at Thanksgiving has been paying strangely close attention to national and global fertility rates.

現在，從各政治派別的政客到你感恩節時的怪叔叔，每個人都在奇怪地密切關注全國和全球的生育率。

But what gets less attention is that the replacement rate is variable too.

但較少引起注意的是，替代率也是可變的。

Back in the 1920s, people needed to have more than 3 children on average just to maintain the population, since infant mortality rate was much higher than it is today.

早在 20 世紀 20 年代，人們平均需要生育 3 個以上的孩子才能維持人口，因為當時的嬰兒死亡率比現在要高得多。

That means that the population back here was actually declining faster than it is today.

這意味著，這裡的人口實際上比現在下降得更快。

All in the age before modern contraceptives, widespread women in the workforce, the breakdown of family values, or whatever else is blamed for our current population trends.

這一切都發生在現代避孕藥具、婦女普遍參加工作、家庭價值觀崩潰或其他任何被歸咎於當前人口趨勢的時代之前。

The other explanation for the baby boom was that the post-WWII economy was just so good that starting a family was easy.

嬰兒潮的另一種解釋是，二戰後經濟形勢大好，成家容易。

But the Roaring 20s were also a highly prosperous post-war economy, and yet people were having a lot fewer babies.

但是，"咆哮的 20 年代 "也是戰後經濟高度繁榮的時期，但人們的生育率卻大大降低。

The birth rate actually only started recovering after 1929 when the Great Depression plunged a staggering amount of American families back into relative poverty.

實際上，出生率在 1929 年後才開始恢復，當時的大蕭條使大量美國家庭重新陷入相對貧困。

In fact, by actually looking at the data, you can see that the baby boom really started in the 1930s when the American economy was arguably in its worst state in the last century.

事實上，通過實際查看數據，你可以發現嬰兒潮真正開始於 20 世紀 30 年代，當時美國經濟可以說處於上世紀最糟糕的狀態。

There was a pause during the war, but the post-war baby boom that we are all familiar with was really just the continuation of a trend that had already started.

戰爭期間曾有過停頓，但我們都熟悉的戰後嬰兒潮實際上只是已經開始的趨勢的延續。

So if it wasn't contraceptives, women in the workforce, economic growth, the move into cities, or modern family values, what actually caused the birth rate slump back then?

那麼，如果不是因為避孕藥具、婦女加入勞動力大軍、經濟增長、城市化進程或現代家庭價值觀，究竟是什麼導致了當年出生率的下滑呢？

Well, it's the same thing that caused the baby boom, and the reason I am giving you this history lesson is because it could also solve a lot of our population problems today, but you might not like the answer.

我之所以給你們上這堂歷史課，是因為它也能解決我們今天的許多人口問題，但你們可能不喜歡這個答案。

One of the most consistent baby blockers is income inequality.

收入不平等是阻礙嬰兒成長的最主要因素之一。

The economist Thomas Piketty, as part of writing his book Capital in the 21st Century, collected and compiled income inequality data over the last century.

經濟學家托馬斯-皮凱蒂（Thomas Piketty）在撰寫《21 世紀資本論》（Capital in the 21st Century）一書時，收集整理了上個世紀的收入不平等數據。

Just quickly, this is probably one of the best books on economics ever written, and it reads easily even to non-economists.

簡單地說，這可能是有史以來最好的經濟學書籍之一，即使不是經濟學家也能輕鬆讀懂。

So like always, I will leave a link to it in the description below.

是以，我會一如既往地在下面的描述中留下鏈接。

Using my link helps the channel a little bit, and a good book will provide way more value than I ever could through something like a Patreon.

使用我的鏈接會對頻道有一點幫助，而且一本好書所提供的價值遠遠超過我通過 Patreon 等方式所能提供的價值。

But anyways, if you invert the data that Piketty collected on income inequality, it lines up almost perfectly with the fertility rate.

但不管怎麼說，如果把皮凱蒂收集的收入不平等數據反過來看，它與生育率幾乎完全吻合。

If people feel like they aren't falling behind, if they have social mobility, and they can provide what is considered a good life, they will have more children.

如果人們覺得自己沒有落後，如果他們有社會流動性，如果他們能提供被認為是美好的生活，他們就會有更多的孩子。

The New Deal that was the foundation of the Great Depression recovery efforts and the GI Bill following World War II massively reduced income inequality, and with it, the babies flowed.

作為大蕭條復甦努力基礎的新政和二戰後的大兵法案大大減少了收入不平等，隨之而來的是嬰兒潮。

But this is a big problem because, yes, people in power want to avoid a population crunch, but not like that.

但這是個大問題，因為，是的，當權者想要避免人口緊縮，但不是這樣。

So it's time to learn how money works to find out how to make people make babies without, you know, giving them too much.

所以，是時候瞭解一下金錢是如何運作的了，看看如何在不給人們太多的情況下讓他們生孩子。

Beam is all about helping you sleep better, feel better, and perform at your best with high-quality wellness products.

Beam 致力於用高品質的健康產品幫助您睡得更好、感覺更好，併發揮最佳狀態。

Their best-selling Dream Powder is a nighttime blend designed to help you fall asleep faster and wake up refreshed.

其最暢銷的夢幻粉是一種夜間混合粉，旨在幫助您更快入睡，醒來後神清氣爽。

It's crafted with natural ingredients like melatonin, magnesium, and l-theanine to support deep, restful sleep.

它含有褪黑素、鎂和茶氨酸等天然成分，有助於深度睡眠。

In a customer survey, 92% of people who used the Dream Powder said it helped them get higher quality sleep.

在一項客戶調查中，92% 使用過夢幻粉的人表示，夢幻粉有助於他們獲得更高質量的睡眠。

The ingredients themselves are backed by clinical research for their potential benefits in promoting restful sleep.

其成分本身在促進安穩睡眠方面的潛在益處得到了臨床研究的支持。

I've been using it for a couple weeks now before bed, and it's made going to sleep a lot easier.

我已經在睡前使用了幾個星期，它讓我更容易入睡。

I fall asleep instead of spending hours on Reddit, and I wake up the next morning feeling refreshed.

我睡著了，而不是花幾個小時在 Reddit 上，第二天早上醒來，感覺神清氣爽。

Plus, it tastes like a delicious cup of hot cocoa, so it actually feels like a treat before bed.

此外，它的味道就像一杯美味的熱可可，讓人感覺睡前是一種享受。

I personally like the chocolate peanut butter flavor, and it comes with 30 servings.

我個人喜歡巧克力花生醬口味，它有 30 份。

So it works out to roughly $2.30 a serving when you subscribe and save.

是以，如果您訂閱並保存，每份大約為 2.30 美元。

And if you want to try it out, you can use my code for up to 35% off.

如果你想試試，可以使用我的代碼，最高可享受 35% 的折扣。

That's 35% off subscriptions and 18% off one-time purchases.

訂閱優惠 35%，一次性購買優惠 18%。

Head over to shopbeam.com forward slash howmanyworks to check it out.

前往 shopbeam.com forward slash howmanyworks 查看。

For most of human history, our population has been pretty much stagnant.

在人類歷史的大部分時間裡，我們的人口基本處於停滯狀態。

Based on archaeological records, the average population growth rate for the 10,000 years between the dawn of human civilization and the Industrial Revolution was just 0.04%.

根據考古記錄，從人類文明誕生到工業革命之間的 1 萬年間，平均人口增長率僅為 0.04%。

Generation to generation, it was barely enough to register.

And even then, there were significant setbacks like the Black Plague, which wiped out between a quarter and half of all people in Europe.

即便如此，也出現過重大挫折，比如黑死病，它使歐洲四分之一到一半的人口喪生。

People had a lot more children on average, but fewer of them survived, so the population didn't really budge.

人們平均生育了更多的孩子，但存活下來的孩子卻更少，是以人口並沒有真正增長。

And then came the Industrial Revolution, which kicked off a bit of a feedback loop.

隨後，工業革命爆發，引發了一個反饋循環。

Mechanized industry and agriculture could feed and provide more people.

機械化的工業和農業可以養活和提供更多的人。

And more people meant more work could be done, and more innovations could be made to feed and provide for more people.

更多的人意味著可以完成更多的工作，可以進行更多的創新，以養活和供養更多的人。

Refinements in medicine and nutrition meant that people also lived a lot longer, which gave them more opportunities to apply their expertise to making an overall wealthier world.

醫學和營養學的進步意味著人們的壽命也大大延長，這讓他們有更多機會運用自己的專業知識來創造一個更加富裕的世界。

By best estimates, something like 7% of all of the humans to have ever lived are currently alive right now.

據估計，有史以來所有人類中大約有 7% 現在還活著。

Having more people naturally boosted industry, because there were more potential consumers to cater to, and population growth provided a ready supply of labor to work in the new factories.

人口的增加自然會促進工業的發展，因為有更多的潛在消費者需要滿足，而人口的增長也為新工廠提供了現成的勞動力。

Early industrial centers like London became extremely rich, but even back then, some familiar trends emerged.

倫敦等早期工業中心變得異常富裕，但即使在當時，也出現了一些我們熟悉的趨勢。

Cities during the Industrial Revolution were horrible places to live.

工業革命時期的城市是可怕的居住地。

They figured out building factories much faster than building sanitation.

他們發現建造工廠比建造衛生設施要快得多。

So infectious diseases, malnutrition, and food-borne pathogens were more prevalent in these population-dense centers.

是以，傳染病、營養不良和食源性病原體在這些人口密集的中心更為普遍。

So many people died in London that up until the 20th century, it was almost entirely reliant on people moving from the countryside to get work to maintain its population.

倫敦死了太多的人，以至於直到 20 世紀，倫敦幾乎完全依靠人們從鄉下搬來工作來維持人口。

Now most cities in high-income countries, with the notable exception of San Francisco, eventually figured out that leaving human waste in the street was not a good idea.

現在，除了舊金山這個明顯的例外，大多數高收入國家的城市最終都認識到，把人類排洩物留在街上並不是一個好主意。

So even though cities aren't actively killing their inhabitants anymore, they are still population black holes that have very low birth rates and rely on people moving to them to maintain themselves.

是以，儘管城市不再主動殺害居民，但它們仍然是人口黑洞，出生率非常低，依靠人們遷移到城市來維持自身。

That's simply because cities are expensive.

原因很簡單，因為城市很昂貴。

Unless you are extremely wealthy, you probably can't afford a family-sized home close to a major city.

除非你非常富有，否則你可能買不起靠近大城市的家庭式住宅。

And depending on your career, you might not be able to move away from those cities without losing your job.

而且根據你的職業，你可能無法在不失去工作的情況下搬離這些城市。

Today, a trend has emerged where having lots of children is either an indication of being extremely wealthy or being extremely poor, with very little room in the middle for large middle-class families, because that's just become unaffordable in most cities around the world.

如今，出現了一種趨勢，即有很多孩子要麼說明非常富有，要麼說明非常貧窮，中間很少有中產階級大家庭的空間，因為在世界大多數城市，這已經變得難以承受。

Now over the past 300 years, we have also run out of people to pull from the high birth rate countryside.

現在，在過去的 300 年裡，我們也從高出生率的農村拉走了很多人。

So the trend has gone global, and today, most advanced economies pull in people from high birth rate countries.

如今，大多數發達經濟體都從高出生率國家吸引人口。

The rise in immigration to fill labor shortages has masked the issue, but it has caused other problems like further contributing to housing affordability and putting downward pressure on wages and upward pressure on income inequality.

為填補勞動力短缺而增加的移民人數掩蓋了這一問題，但卻引發了其他問題，如進一步加劇了住房負擔能力，對工資造成下行壓力，對收入不平等造成上行壓力。

There is also the not-so-subtle reality that a lot of the people that want a stable supply of young workers would, let's just say, strongly prefer if those workers were homegrown.

還有一個不那麼微妙的現實是，很多希望有穩定的年輕工人供應的人都強烈希望這些工人是本地人。

Now in all of this, there is one other simple solution.

現在，還有一個簡單的解決方案。

Let people work jobs outside of the city.

The COVID pandemic was the most recent global event to shake up birth rates.

COVID 大流行是最近一次撼動出生率的全球性事件。

Initially, it caused a sharp dip as people lost their jobs and saw hospitals barely having the capacity to manage the load.

起初，由於人們失去工作，醫院幾乎沒有能力應付工作量，是以造成了急劇下降。

But as more dual-income households moved to working from home, births increased and not only made up for the initial drop but exceeded expected trends.

但是，隨著越來越多的雙職工家庭轉向在家工作，出生人數增加，不僅彌補了最初的下降，而且超出了預期趨勢。

Unsurprisingly, it's easier to deal with a pregnancy and have children when parents don't need to go into an office.

不難理解，當父母不需要去辦公室時，懷孕和生子會更容易些。

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為什麼年輕人都不想生小孩了？ (nOboDy wAnTs tO HaVe kIdS AnyMore)

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