Name: 為什麼大多數人投資都不賺錢？因為為他們犯了這個錯誤...巴菲特的致富哲學「棒球理論- Warren Buffett 巴菲特（中英字幕） (為什麼大多數人投資都不賺錢？因為他們犯了這個錯誤... ► 巴菲特的致富哲學「棒球理論」 - Warren Buffett 巴菲特（中英字幕）)
Uploaded: 2025-01-31T03:05:47.000Z
Duration: 4 min 47 s

過去簡單式

They got a punch card with 20 punches on it and that's all the investment decisions they got to make in their entire life.

他們有一張打卡機，上面有 20 個打孔，這就是他們一生中所有的投資決策。

我與比爾-蓋茨相識於 1991 年 7 月 5 日。

We were out in Seattle and Bill said, you've got to have a computer.

我們當時在西雅圖，比爾說，你得有一臺電腦。

And he said, well, he said you can do your income tax on it.

他說，好吧，他說你可以用它來繳納所得稅。

He said, well, you can keep track of your portfolio.

他說，好吧，你可以跟蹤你的投資組合。

He says, it's going to change everything.

And I said, well, will it change whether people chew gum?

我說，那麼，它會改變人們是否嚼口香糖嗎？

And I said, well, will it change what kind of gum they chew?

我說，那麼，這會改變他們咀嚼的口香糖種類嗎？

And I said, well, then I'll stick to chewing gum and you stick to computers.

我說，好吧，那我就堅持做口香糖，你堅持做電腦。

I don't have to understand all kinds of business.

There's all kinds of business I don't understand.

But there's thousands of opportunities there.

I did understand the Bank of America, you know, and and I'll be able, I'm able to do that.

我確實瞭解美國銀行，你知道，而且我能夠，我能夠做到這一點。

I'm able to understand some given percentage.

我能夠理解一些給定的百分比。

But Ted Williams wrote a book called The Science of Hitting.

但特德-威廉姆斯寫過一本書，名叫《擊球科學》。

And in The Science of Hitting, he's got a diagram, shows him at the plate, and he's got the strike zone divided into 77 squares, each the size of a baseball.

在《擊球科學》一書中，他有一張圖，顯示了他在本壘的情況，他把打擊區劃分為77個方格，每個方格都有一個棒球那麼大。

And he says, if I only swing at pitches in my sweet zone, which he shows there, and he has what his batting average would be, which is 400.

他說，如果我只在我的甜蜜區揮棒，他在那裡展示了這一點，他的平均打擊率就會達到400。

If he had to swing at low outside pitches, but still in the strike zone, his average would be 230.

如果他必須揮擊外圍低速球，但仍在打擊區內，那麼他的平均打擊率將達到 230。

He said the most important thing in hitting is waiting for the right pitch.

他說，擊球最重要的是等待正確的投球。

Now, he was at a disadvantage because if the count was 0-2 or 1-2 or so on, even if that ball was down where he was only gonna bat 230, he had to swing at it.

現在，他處於劣勢，因為如果球數是 0-2 或 1-2 等，即使球落在他只能擊出 230 壘的地方，他也必須揮棒擊球。

在投資中，沒有所謂的三振出局。

People can throw Microsoft at me and, you know, you name it, any stock, General Motors.

人們可以把微軟扔給我，你知道的，你說得出來的，任何股票，通用汽車。

Nobody's gonna call me out on called strikes.

I only get a strike called if I swing at a pitch and miss.

我只有在揮棒落空時才會被三振出局。

So I can wait there and look at thousands of companies day after day, and only when I see something I understand, and when I like the price at which it's selling, then if I swing, if I hit it fine, if I miss it, it's a strike.

是以，我可以等在那裡，日復一日地觀察成千上萬家公司，只有當我看到我瞭解的東西，當我喜歡它的銷售價格時，如果我揮杆，如果我擊中它很好，如果我錯過它，它就是一個罷工。

But it's an enormously advantageous game.

And it's a terrible mistake to think you have to have an opinion on everything.

如果認為自己必須對所有事情都有自己的看法，那就大錯特錯了。

You only have to have an opinion on a few things.

你只需對一些事情有自己的看法。

In fact, I've told students if when they got out of school, they got a punch card with 20 punches on it, and that's all the investment decisions they got to make in their entire life, they would get very rich because they would think very hard about each one.

事實上，我曾對學生們說，如果他們離開學校時，拿到一張打卡機，上面有 20 個打孔，這就是他們一生中要做的所有投資決定，他們就會變得非常富有，因為他們會認真思考每一個決定。

And you don't need 20 right decisions to get very rich.

你不需要做出 20 個正確的決定，就能獲得鉅額財富。

Four or five will probably do it over time.

隨著時間的推移，四五個人可能就夠了。

So I don't worry too much about the things.

If you understand some of these businesses that are coming along and can spot things on, if you can spot on Amazon, for example, I mean, it's a tremendous accomplishment what Jeff Bezos has done.

如果你瞭解一些即將出現的企業，並能發現其中的問題，比如說，如果你能發現亞馬遜的問題，我的意思是，傑夫-貝索斯所做的是一項巨大的成就。

But could I have anticipated that he would be the success and ten others wouldn't be?

但我能預料到他會成功，而其他十個人不會嗎？

You know, I don't have to form an opinion on Amazon.

你知道，我沒必要對亞馬遜形成看法。

And I did form an opinion on the Bank of America, and I formed an opinion on Coca-Cola.

我確實對美國銀行有看法，對可口可樂也有看法。

I mean, Coca-Cola has been around since 1886.

我的意思是，可口可樂從 1886 年就已經存在了。

There's 1.8 billion, 1.8 billion, 8-ounce servings of Coca-Cola products sold every day.

每天售出 18 億份 8 盎司裝的可口可樂產品。

Now, if you take one penny and get one penny extra, that's 18 million dollars a day.

現在，如果多拿一分錢，每天就是 1800 萬美元。

And 18 million times 365 is 7,000,003, less 730 billion, or 6,570,000,000 dollars.

1800 萬乘 365 等於 7000 003，減去 7300 億，即 65.7 億美元。

So annually, 6,570,000,000 dollars from one penny.

是以，每年有 65.7 億美元來自一分錢。

Do you think Coca-Cola is worth a penny more than, you know, Joe's Cola?

你認為可口可樂比喬氏可樂值錢嗎？

So, you know, and I've got about 127 years of history that would indicate it.

所以，我有 127 年的歷史可以證明這一點。

So those are the kind of decisions I like to make.

所以，這些都是我喜歡做的決定。

And you may have an entirely different field of expertise than I would have, and probably much more up-to-date in terms of the kind of businesses that we're seeing evolve.

你可能擁有與我完全不同的專業領域，而且在我們所看到的企業類型發展方面，你可能更與時俱進。

 And you can get very rich if you just understand a few of them and understand their future.

只要你瞭解其中的幾個，瞭解它們的未來，你就能發大財。