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由 AI 自動生成
  • What's the worst thing we've ever done to the planet?

    我們對地球做過的最糟糕的事情是什麼?

  • The answer is tough to hear

    答案很難聽

  • and many people recoil from it

    而許多人對它感到退縮

  • because it conflicts with some of our most cherished beliefs.

    因為它與我們最珍視的一些信仰相沖突。

  • Farming.

    耕作。

  • Farming is the greatest cause of habitat destruction,

    養殖業是生境破壞的最大原因。

  • the greatest cause of wildlife loss,

    是造成野生動物損失的最大原因。

  • the world's greatest cause of extinction.

    是世界上最大的物種滅絕原因。

  • It's caused roughly 80 percent of the deforestation this century.

    它造成了本世紀大約80%的森林砍伐。

  • Only 29 percent of the weight of birds on Earth

    地球上的鳥類只有29%的重量

  • consists of wild species.

    由野生物種組成。

  • And the rest are poultry.

    而其餘的是家禽。

  • Just four percent of mammals, by weight, are wild.

    按重量計算,只有4%的哺乳動物是野生的。

  • 36 percent is accounted for by humans,

    36%是由人類佔的。

  • and farmed animals make up the remaining 60 percent.

    和養殖的動物佔剩餘的60%。

  • Yes, look, we all need food and we all need farming.

    是的,看,我們都需要食物,我們都需要耕作。

  • But that shouldn't blind us to the fact

    但這不應該讓我們忽視一個事實

  • that it's also among the world's foremost causes of climate breakdown,

    它也是世界上造成氣候崩潰的最主要原因之一。

  • of water pollution, of air pollution.

    的水汙染,空氣汙染。

  • But, perhaps most importantly,

    但是,也許最重要的是。

  • it's the foremost cause of land use.

    它是土地使用的首要原因。

  • Now I've come to see land

    現在,我已經看到了土地

  • as perhaps the most important of all environmental questions.

    作為所有環境問題中最重要的問題。

  • Every acre of land that we use for our own purposes

    我們為自己的目的而使用的每一英畝土地

  • is an acre that can't support wild ecosystems,

    是一畝地,不能支持野生生態系統。

  • such as forests and wetlands and savannahs,

    如森林、溼地和大草原。

  • on which the great majority of the world's species depend.

    世界上絕大多數的物種都依賴於此。

  • It's our use of land which, above all,

    這是我們對土地的使用,這一點,首先。

  • is driving the sixth great extinction of species.

    正在推動第六次物種大滅絕。

  • Now, there are some thrilling and world-changing solutions

    現在,有一些令人激動的、改變世界的解決方案

  • to these great crises,

    對這些偉大的危機。

  • and I'll be coming to those in just a minute.

    我馬上就會講到這些。

  • I mean, some of them are mind-blowing

    我的意思是,他們中的一些人是令人振奮的

  • and have the potential to solve several problems at the same time.

    並有可能同時解決幾個問題。

  • But in order to understand them and the need for them,

    但為了瞭解它們和對它們的需要。

  • first, we need to understand the scope and direction

    首先,我們需要了解範圍和方向

  • of the global food system.

    全球糧食系統的。

  • We rail against urban sprawl, and rightly so.

    我們抨擊城市無序擴張,這是對的。

  • But all our homes and businesses and infrastructure

    但我們所有的房屋、企業和基礎設施

  • occupy just one percent of the planet's land.

    僅佔地球土地的百分之一。

  • Agricultural sprawl is a far greater ecological threat.

    農業的無序擴張是一個更大的生態威脅。

  • Farming occupies 38 percent of the planet's land.

    養殖業佔據了地球上38%的土地。

  • Most of the rest, incidentally, is protected areas,

    順帶一提,其餘大部分地區都是保護區。

  • forests, deserts, ice and mountains.

    森林、沙漠、冰雪和山脈。

  • So we have this vast amount of land being occupied.

    是以,我們有這麼大量的土地被佔用。

  • A lot of people complain about intensive farming

    很多人抱怨集約化耕作

  • and the harm that it does to us and our world,

    以及它對我們和我們的世界造成的傷害。

  • and this harm is real.

    而這種傷害是真實的。

  • But so is the harm caused by extensive farming,

    但大面積耕種造成的危害也是如此。

  • which means using more land to produce a given amount of food.

    這意味著使用更多的土地來生產一定數量的食物。

  • Now, I know some of you will find this a shocking statement,

    現在,我知道你們中的一些人會發現這是一個令人震驚的聲明。

  • but the most damaging of all farm products is pasture-fed meat,

    但所有農場產品中損害最大的是牧草餵養的肉類。

  • and that's because of the agricultural sprawl it causes.

    而這是因為它所造成的農業擴張。

  • You remember that 38 percent of land used by farming?

    你還記得那38%的土地用於耕種嗎?

  • Well, only 12 percent of the land is covered by crops.

    那麼,只有12%的土地被農作物覆蓋。

  • The remaining 26 percent is used for pasture,

    剩餘的26%被用來做牧場。

  • mostly for cattle, sheep and goats.

    主要用於牛、綿羊和山羊。

  • Our environmental crisis is not driven by intensive farming

    我們的環境危機不是由密集型農業驅動的

  • or by extensive farming,

    或通過廣泛的耕作。

  • but by a disastrous combination of the two.

    而是通過兩者的災難性結合。

  • The problem is not the adjective --

    問題不在於形容詞 --

  • it's the noun.

    是名詞。

  • Farming itself is threatened

    耕作本身受到了威脅

  • by the environmental harm that it's contributed to,

    它所造成的環境損害。

  • such as climate breakdown and soil depletion

    如氣候崩潰和土壤枯竭

  • and the exhaustion of water supplies.

    和水供應的枯竭。

  • But there could be an even greater threat to our food supplies.

    但是對我們的食品供應可能有更大的威脅。

  • It's possible to see the biggest threat that the global food system faces

    有可能看到全球糧食系統面臨的最大威脅

  • as the global food system.

    作為全球食品系統。

  • It's beginning to look a bit like the global financial system

    它開始看起來有點像全球金融體系了

  • in the approach to 2008.

    在接近2008年的時候。

  • Now for a long time, we thought we were beating hunger.

    現在有很長一段時間,我們認為我們正在戰勝飢餓。

  • Between the 1960s and 2014, hunger was declining fairly steadily.

    在20世紀60年代至2014年期間,飢餓感在相當穩定地下降。

  • But then, in 2015, the trend began to turn,

    但後來,在2015年,這一趨勢開始轉向。

  • and the number of chronically malnourished people began rising

    而長期營養不良的人數開始上升

  • and has continued to rise ever since.

    並從那時起一直持續上升。

  • Astoundingly, that rise began just as world food prices were falling.

    令人吃驚的是,這種上升恰恰是在世界糧食價格下降時開始的。

  • So what's going on?

    那麼發生了什麼事?

  • Well, the world food system, like global finance,

    嗯,世界糧食系統,像全球金融。

  • is a complex system,

    是一個複雜的系統。

  • and complex systems behave in counterintuitive ways.

    和複雜系統的行為方式是反直覺的。

  • They're resilient under certain conditions,

    在某些條件下,他們有很強的適應力。

  • because there’s weird self-organizing dynamics [to] stabilize them.

    因為有奇怪的自組織動力學[來]穩定它們。

  • But if they're pushed by an extreme amount of stress,

    但如果他們被極端的壓力所推動。

  • then those same self-organizing dynamics

    那麼這些相同的自組織動力學

  • can start transmitting shocks across the network.

    可以開始在網絡上傳輸衝擊。

  • And beyond a certain point,

    而且超過一定的限度。

  • they can tip the whole network past its critical threshold,

    他們可以使整個網絡超過其關鍵閾值。

  • whereupon the system collapses, suddenly and unstoppably.

    在此情況下,系統就會突然而不可阻擋地崩潰。

  • Now over the past few years,

    現在在過去的幾年裡。

  • the crucial elements of systemic resilience

    系統復原力的關鍵因素

  • that we call redundancy, modularity, circuit breakers and backup systems

    我們稱之為冗餘、模塊化、斷路器和備份系統。

  • have been stripped out by corporate strategies.

    被公司的戰略剝離了。

  • On one estimate, just four companies now control

    根據一項估計,現在只有四家公司控制著

  • 90 percent of the global grain trade.

    90%的全球糧食貿易。

  • Only four crops, which are wheat, rice, corn and soy,

    只有四種作物,即小麥、水稻、玉米和大豆。

  • account for almost 60 percent of the calories that farmers produce.

    佔農民生產的熱量的近60%。

  • And the production for export of those crops

    而這些農作物的出口生產

  • has become highly concentrated in a handful of nations,

    已經高度集中在少數幾個國家。

  • including Russia and Ukraine.

    包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭。

  • Nations have polarized into superexporters and superimporters,

    國家已經分化為超級出口國和超級進口國。

  • and much of this trade passes through vulnerable choke points,

    而這些貿易大多通過脆弱的咽喉部位。

  • such as the Turkish Straits

    如土耳其海峽

  • and the Suez and Panama Canals.

    以及蘇伊士和巴拿馬運河。

  • Had the blockage of the Suez Canal in 2021 --

    如果蘇伊士運河在2021年被封鎖 --

  • by that giant container ship, you remember that --

    在那艘巨大的集裝箱船旁,你記得 --

  • had that coincided with the closure of the Turkish Straits in 2022

    恰逢2022年土耳其海峽關閉。

  • by the war in Ukraine,

    烏克蘭戰爭的影響。

  • then the food chain for hundreds of millions of people

    然後是數以億計的人的食物鏈

  • might have snapped.

    可能已經斷氣了。

  • The reason why hunger is rising seems to be that,

    飢餓感上升的原因似乎是:。

  • as the food system has lost its resilience,

    因為食品系統已經失去了它的復原力。

  • more and more contagious shocks are being transmitted across it.

    越來越多的傳染性震盪在其間傳播。

  • Now, we in the rich nations,

    現在,我們富國的人。

  • we scarcely noticed the shocks being caused by speculative surges

    我們幾乎沒有注意到投機性暴漲所造成的震盪

  • and export bans and bottlenecking and other issues like that,

    以及出口禁令和瓶頸和其他類似問題。

  • until 2020, when COVID began to make us more aware

    直到2020年,當COVID開始讓我們更清楚地認識到

  • of some of the issues we were facing.

    我們所面臨的一些問題。

  • But those shocks, for years, have been hitting the poorer nations

    但這些衝擊,多年來,一直在打擊較貧窮的國家

  • with weak currencies,

    貨幣疲軟的情況下。

  • which stand at the end of the queue.

    其中站在隊列的最後。

  • And what they saw is that local food prices can surge

    而他們所看到的是,當地的食品價格會激增

  • even as global prices remain low.

    即使全球價格仍然很低。

  • Now, these problems are likely only to become worse

    現在,這些問題可能只會變得更糟

  • as the system becomes less stable

    隨著系統變得不那麼穩定

  • and is possibly approaching a critical threshold.

    並且可能正在接近一個關鍵的閾值。

  • Governments prevented the banks from collapsing

    政府阻止了銀行的倒閉

  • by bailing them out with future money.

    通過用未來的錢來拯救他們。

  • But you can't bail out the food system with future food.

    但你不能用未來的食物來拯救食品系統。

  • So we face two enormous issues here.

    是以,我們在這裡面臨兩個巨大的問題。

  • One, the environmental harm caused by the food system,

    其一,食品系統造成的環境危害。

  • and secondly, the possibility that the system itself could collapse.

    其次,系統本身有可能崩潰。

  • Might there be a solution,

    可能有一個解決方案。

  • a solution to both these problems?

    解決這兩個問題的辦法是什麼?

  • Can we find a way of feeding the world without devouring the planet?

    我們能否找到一種既能養活世界,又不吞噬地球的方法?

  • Well, there are some fascinating new techniques for growing crops

    嗯,有一些迷人的作物種植新技術

  • being developed by farmers and scientists.

    農民和科學家正在開發。

  • I'm especially interested in the potential of perennial grain crops,

    我對多年生穀物作物的潛力特別感興趣。

  • which are being developed in particular by The Land Institute in Salina, Kansas.

    其中,堪薩斯州薩利納的土地研究所正在特別開發。

  • If we can grow grain on plants that stay in the soil from year to year,

    如果我們能在每年都留在土壤中的植物上種植穀物。

  • we can greatly reduce the damage to the soil caused by plowing

    我們可以大大減少耕作對土壤的破壞。

  • and the amount of pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers,

    以及殺蟲劑、除草劑、化肥的用量。

  • irrigation required to establish new crops.

    建立新作物所需的灌溉。

  • Other farmers are finding really amazing ways

    其他農民正在尋找真正驚人的方法

  • of boosting their yields without using either fertilizers or manure.

    在不使用化肥或糞便的情況下提高他們的產量。

  • Crucial as all these developments are,

    儘管所有這些發展都是至關重要的。

  • they can only be partial solutions to the issues we face.

    它們只能是我們所面臨問題的部分解決方案。

  • Because perhaps our most urgent task

    因為也許我們最緊迫的任務是

  • is replacing the protein-rich and fat-rich foods

    正在取代富含蛋白質和脂肪的食物

  • that we currently obtain from animals

    我們目前從動物身上獲得的

  • and from crops like soy and oil palm.

    以及來自大豆和油棕櫚等作物。

  • If the biggest problem that farming is causing

    如果養殖業造成的最大問題是

  • is the amount of land it uses,

    是其使用的土地數量。

  • then perhaps the biggest environmental solution

    那麼最大的環境解決方案可能是

  • is shifting food production off the land and into the factory.

    正在將糧食生產從土地上轉移到工廠中。

  • Now, I realize that's another shocking statement.

    現在,我意識到這是另一個令人震驚的說法。

  • Many people hate the idea of food being produced in factories,

    許多人討厭在工廠裡生產食物的想法。

  • forgetting, somewhat, that almost all the food we eat

    某種程度上忘記了,我們吃的幾乎所有的食物

  • passes through a factory at some point in its production.

    在生產過程中的某個環節中經過一個工廠。

  • In fact, the great majority of the animals we eat are factory farmed.

    事實上,我們吃的絕大部分動物都是工廠化養殖的。

  • Well, in Helsinki, Finland, I visited a company called Solar Foods,

    好吧,在芬蘭的赫爾辛基,我參觀了一家名為太陽能食品的公司。

  • which is using a technique called precision fermentation

    這是在使用一種叫做精確發酵的技術

  • to create a protein-rich flour

    以創建一個富含蛋白質的麵粉

  • from a soil bacterium that eats hydrogen.

    來自一種吃氫氣的土壤細菌。

  • It requires no farm products at all.

    它根本不需要任何農產品。