The answer is tough to hear

答案很難聽

and many people recoil from it

而許多人對它感到退縮

because it conflicts with some of our most cherished beliefs.

因為它與我們最珍視的一些信仰相沖突。

Farming.

耕作。

Farming is the greatest cause of habitat destruction,

養殖業是生境破壞的最大原因。

the greatest cause of wildlife loss,

是造成野生動物損失的最大原因。

the world's greatest cause of extinction.

是世界上最大的物種滅絕原因。

It's caused roughly 80 percent of the deforestation this century.

它造成了本世紀大約80%的森林砍伐。

Only 29 percent of the weight of birds on Earth

地球上的鳥類只有29%的重量

consists of wild species.

由野生物種組成。

And the rest are poultry.

而其餘的是家禽。

Just four percent of mammals, by weight, are wild.

按重量計算，只有4%的哺乳動物是野生的。

36 percent is accounted for by humans,

36%是由人類佔的。

and farmed animals make up the remaining 60 percent.

和養殖的動物佔剩餘的60%。

Yes, look, we all need food and we all need farming.

是的，看，我們都需要食物，我們都需要耕作。

But that shouldn't blind us to the fact

但這不應該讓我們忽視一個事實

that it's also among the world's foremost causes of climate breakdown,

它也是世界上造成氣候崩潰的最主要原因之一。

of water pollution, of air pollution.

的水汙染，空氣汙染。

But, perhaps most importantly,

但是，也許最重要的是。

it's the foremost cause of land use.

它是土地使用的首要原因。

Now I've come to see land

現在，我已經看到了土地

as perhaps the most important of all environmental questions.

作為所有環境問題中最重要的問題。

Every acre of land that we use for our own purposes

我們為自己的目的而使用的每一英畝土地

is an acre that can't support wild ecosystems,

是一畝地，不能支持野生生態系統。

such as forests and wetlands and savannahs,

如森林、溼地和大草原。

on which the great majority of the world's species depend.

世界上絕大多數的物種都依賴於此。

It's our use of land which, above all,

這是我們對土地的使用，這一點，首先。

is driving the sixth great extinction of species.

正在推動第六次物種大滅絕。

Now, there are some thrilling and world-changing solutions

現在，有一些令人激動的、改變世界的解決方案

to these great crises,

對這些偉大的危機。

and I'll be coming to those in just a minute.

我馬上就會講到這些。

I mean, some of them are mind-blowing

我的意思是，他們中的一些人是令人振奮的

and have the potential to solve several problems at the same time.

並有可能同時解決幾個問題。

But in order to understand them and the need for them,

但為了瞭解它們和對它們的需要。

first, we need to understand the scope and direction

首先，我們需要了解範圍和方向

of the global food system.

全球糧食系統的。

We rail against urban sprawl, and rightly so.

我們抨擊城市無序擴張，這是對的。

But all our homes and businesses and infrastructure

但我們所有的房屋、企業和基礎設施

occupy just one percent of the planet's land.

僅佔地球土地的百分之一。

Agricultural sprawl is a far greater ecological threat.

農業的無序擴張是一個更大的生態威脅。

Farming occupies 38 percent of the planet's land.

養殖業佔據了地球上38%的土地。

Most of the rest, incidentally, is protected areas,

順帶一提，其餘大部分地區都是保護區。

forests, deserts, ice and mountains.

森林、沙漠、冰雪和山脈。

So we have this vast amount of land being occupied.

是以，我們有這麼大量的土地被佔用。

A lot of people complain about intensive farming

很多人抱怨集約化耕作

and the harm that it does to us and our world,

以及它對我們和我們的世界造成的傷害。

and this harm is real.

而這種傷害是真實的。

But so is the harm caused by extensive farming,

但大面積耕種造成的危害也是如此。

which means using more land to produce a given amount of food.

這意味著使用更多的土地來生產一定數量的食物。

Now, I know some of you will find this a shocking statement,

現在，我知道你們中的一些人會發現這是一個令人震驚的聲明。

but the most damaging of all farm products is pasture-fed meat,

但所有農場產品中損害最大的是牧草餵養的肉類。

and that's because of the agricultural sprawl it causes.

而這是因為它所造成的農業擴張。

You remember that 38 percent of land used by farming?

你還記得那38%的土地用於耕種嗎？

Well, only 12 percent of the land is covered by crops.

那麼，只有12%的土地被農作物覆蓋。

The remaining 26 percent is used for pasture,

剩餘的26%被用來做牧場。

mostly for cattle, sheep and goats.

主要用於牛、綿羊和山羊。

Our environmental crisis is not driven by intensive farming

我們的環境危機不是由密集型農業驅動的

or by extensive farming,

或通過廣泛的耕作。

but by a disastrous combination of the two.

而是通過兩者的災難性結合。

The problem is not the adjective --

問題不在於形容詞 --

it's the noun.

是名詞。

Farming itself is threatened

耕作本身受到了威脅

by the environmental harm that it's contributed to,

它所造成的環境損害。

such as climate breakdown and soil depletion

如氣候崩潰和土壤枯竭

and the exhaustion of water supplies.

和水供應的枯竭。

But there could be an even greater threat to our food supplies.

但是對我們的食品供應可能有更大的威脅。

It's possible to see the biggest threat that the global food system faces

有可能看到全球糧食系統面臨的最大威脅

as the global food system.

作為全球食品系統。

It's beginning to look a bit like the global financial system

它開始看起來有點像全球金融體系了

in the approach to 2008.

在接近2008年的時候。

Now for a long time, we thought we were beating hunger.

現在有很長一段時間，我們認為我們正在戰勝飢餓。

Between the 1960s and 2014, hunger was declining fairly steadily.

在20世紀60年代至2014年期間，飢餓感在相當穩定地下降。

But then, in 2015, the trend began to turn,

但後來，在2015年，這一趨勢開始轉向。

and the number of chronically malnourished people began rising

而長期營養不良的人數開始上升

and has continued to rise ever since.

並從那時起一直持續上升。

Astoundingly, that rise began just as world food prices were falling.

令人吃驚的是，這種上升恰恰是在世界糧食價格下降時開始的。

So what's going on?

那麼發生了什麼事？

Well, the world food system, like global finance,

嗯，世界糧食系統，像全球金融。

is a complex system,

是一個複雜的系統。

and complex systems behave in counterintuitive ways.

和複雜系統的行為方式是反直覺的。

They're resilient under certain conditions,

在某些條件下，他們有很強的適應力。

because there’s weird self-organizing dynamics [to] stabilize them.

因為有奇怪的自組織動力學[來]穩定它們。

But if they're pushed by an extreme amount of stress,

但如果他們被極端的壓力所推動。

then those same self-organizing dynamics

那麼這些相同的自組織動力學

can start transmitting shocks across the network.

可以開始在網絡上傳輸衝擊。

And beyond a certain point,

而且超過一定的限度。

they can tip the whole network past its critical threshold,

他們可以使整個網絡超過其關鍵閾值。

whereupon the system collapses, suddenly and unstoppably.

在此情況下，系統就會突然而不可阻擋地崩潰。

Now over the past few years,

現在在過去的幾年裡。

the crucial elements of systemic resilience

系統復原力的關鍵因素

that we call redundancy, modularity, circuit breakers and backup systems

我們稱之為冗餘、模塊化、斷路器和備份系統。

have been stripped out by corporate strategies.

被公司的戰略剝離了。

On one estimate, just four companies now control

根據一項估計，現在只有四家公司控制著

90 percent of the global grain trade.

90%的全球糧食貿易。

Only four crops, which are wheat, rice, corn and soy,

只有四種作物，即小麥、水稻、玉米和大豆。

account for almost 60 percent of the calories that farmers produce.

佔農民生產的熱量的近60%。

And the production for export of those crops

而這些農作物的出口生產

has become highly concentrated in a handful of nations,

已經高度集中在少數幾個國家。

including Russia and Ukraine.

包括俄羅斯和烏克蘭。

Nations have polarized into superexporters and superimporters,

國家已經分化為超級出口國和超級進口國。

and much of this trade passes through vulnerable choke points,

而這些貿易大多通過脆弱的咽喉部位。

such as the Turkish Straits

如土耳其海峽

and the Suez and Panama Canals.

以及蘇伊士和巴拿馬運河。

Had the blockage of the Suez Canal in 2021 --

如果蘇伊士運河在2021年被封鎖 --

by that giant container ship, you remember that --

在那艘巨大的集裝箱船旁，你記得 --

had that coincided with the closure of the Turkish Straits in 2022

恰逢2022年土耳其海峽關閉。

by the war in Ukraine,

烏克蘭戰爭的影響。

then the food chain for hundreds of millions of people

然後是數以億計的人的食物鏈

might have snapped.

可能已經斷氣了。

The reason why hunger is rising seems to be that,

飢餓感上升的原因似乎是：。

as the food system has lost its resilience,

因為食品系統已經失去了它的復原力。

more and more contagious shocks are being transmitted across it.

越來越多的傳染性震盪在其間傳播。

Now, we in the rich nations,

現在，我們富國的人。

we scarcely noticed the shocks being caused by speculative surges

我們幾乎沒有注意到投機性暴漲所造成的震盪

and export bans and bottlenecking and other issues like that,

以及出口禁令和瓶頸和其他類似問題。

until 2020, when COVID began to make us more aware

直到2020年，當COVID開始讓我們更清楚地認識到

of some of the issues we were facing.

我們所面臨的一些問題。

But those shocks, for years, have been hitting the poorer nations

但這些衝擊，多年來，一直在打擊較貧窮的國家

with weak currencies,

貨幣疲軟的情況下。

which stand at the end of the queue.

其中站在隊列的最後。

And what they saw is that local food prices can surge

而他們所看到的是，當地的食品價格會激增

even as global prices remain low.

即使全球價格仍然很低。

Now, these problems are likely only to become worse

現在，這些問題可能只會變得更糟

as the system becomes less stable

隨著系統變得不那麼穩定

and is possibly approaching a critical threshold.

並且可能正在接近一個關鍵的閾值。

Governments prevented the banks from collapsing

政府阻止了銀行的倒閉

by bailing them out with future money.

通過用未來的錢來拯救他們。

But you can't bail out the food system with future food.

但你不能用未來的食物來拯救食品系統。

So we face two enormous issues here.

是以，我們在這裡面臨兩個巨大的問題。

One, the environmental harm caused by the food system,

其一，食品系統造成的環境危害。

and secondly, the possibility that the system itself could collapse.

其次，系統本身有可能崩潰。

Might there be a solution,

可能有一個解決方案。

a solution to both these problems?

解決這兩個問題的辦法是什麼？

Can we find a way of feeding the world without devouring the planet?

我們能否找到一種既能養活世界，又不吞噬地球的方法？

Well, there are some fascinating new techniques for growing crops

嗯，有一些迷人的作物種植新技術

being developed by farmers and scientists.

農民和科學家正在開發。

I'm especially interested in the potential of perennial grain crops,

我對多年生穀物作物的潛力特別感興趣。

which are being developed in particular by The Land Institute in Salina, Kansas.

其中，堪薩斯州薩利納的土地研究所正在特別開發。

If we can grow grain on plants that stay in the soil from year to year,

如果我們能在每年都留在土壤中的植物上種植穀物。

we can greatly reduce the damage to the soil caused by plowing

我們可以大大減少耕作對土壤的破壞。

and the amount of pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers,

以及殺蟲劑、除草劑、化肥的用量。

irrigation required to establish new crops.

建立新作物所需的灌溉。

Other farmers are finding really amazing ways

其他農民正在尋找真正驚人的方法

of boosting their yields without using either fertilizers or manure.

在不使用化肥或糞便的情況下提高他們的產量。

Crucial as all these developments are,

儘管所有這些發展都是至關重要的。

they can only be partial solutions to the issues we face.

它們只能是我們所面臨問題的部分解決方案。

Because perhaps our most urgent task

因為也許我們最緊迫的任務是

is replacing the protein-rich and fat-rich foods

正在取代富含蛋白質和脂肪的食物

that we currently obtain from animals

我們目前從動物身上獲得的

and from crops like soy and oil palm.

以及來自大豆和油棕櫚等作物。

If the biggest problem that farming is causing

如果養殖業造成的最大問題是

is the amount of land it uses,

是其使用的土地數量。

then perhaps the biggest environmental solution

那麼最大的環境解決方案可能是

is shifting food production off the land and into the factory.

正在將糧食生產從土地上轉移到工廠中。

Now, I realize that's another shocking statement.

現在，我意識到這是另一個令人震驚的說法。

Many people hate the idea of food being produced in factories,

許多人討厭在工廠裡生產食物的想法。

forgetting, somewhat, that almost all the food we eat

某種程度上忘記了，我們吃的幾乎所有的食物

passes through a factory at some point in its production.

在生產過程中的某個環節中經過一個工廠。

In fact, the great majority of the animals we eat are factory farmed.

事實上，我們吃的絕大部分動物都是工廠化養殖的。

Well, in Helsinki, Finland, I visited a company called Solar Foods,

好吧，在芬蘭的赫爾辛基，我參觀了一家名為太陽能食品的公司。

which is using a technique called precision fermentation

這是在使用一種叫做精確發酵的技術

to create a protein-rich flour

以創建一個富含蛋白質的麵粉

from a soil bacterium that eats hydrogen.

來自一種吃氫氣的土壤細菌。

It requires no farm products at all.

它根本不需要任何農產品。