Traditionally crowded with tourists, co-workers grabbing a pint at the pub,

傳統上擠滿了遊客，同事們在酒吧裡喝杯酒。

students running to class, day-trippers heading to the West End, you name it.

學生跑去上課，一日遊的人去西區，你說的都有。

But that picture of London has changed beyond recognition.

但倫敦的那幅圖景已經變的不堪入目。

Now the streets are mostly empty, and the usual buzz is gone.

現在街道上大部分都是空蕩蕩的，沒有了平時的熱鬧。

So, is this what the future looks like for big cities?

那麼，這就是大城市的未來嗎？

The Covid-19 pandemic has upended the rhythm of big cities and some of its consequences may be here to stay.

科維德-19疫情顛覆了大城市的節奏，它的一些後果可能會一直存在。

The rise of working from home is one example.

在家辦公的興起就是一個例子。

There is an increasing trend towards working from home,

在家工作的趨勢越來越明顯。

I think our research is telling us historically it's been roughly one

我想我們的研究告訴我們，從歷史上看，它是大約一

to one and half days a week on average and we predict that will increase

至每週平均一天半，我們預計這一數字還會增加。

roughly to around about two and half days per week into the future.

大致到未來每週約有兩天半的時間。

Not every industry offers the chance to work remotely, but those who have this option

並非每個行業都提供遠程工作的機會，但那些有這種選擇的人

are getting used to the benefits of not having to commute every day.

正在習慣於不用每天通勤的好處。

At least 16% of American employees want to work from home at least two days per week after the pandemic.

至少有16%的美國員工希望在大流行後每週至少有兩天在家工作。

And in the U.K., 39% of the workforce said they want to continue working from home some of the time,

而在英國，39%的上班族表示，他們希望在某些時候繼續在家工作。

while nearly one in five don't want to return to the office at all.

而近五分之一的人根本不想回辦公室。

This will inevitably bring changes to business districts filled with big blocks of offices.

這勢必會給充滿大塊寫字樓的商圈帶來變化。

Most of us will be spending less time here, and this means that there's probably no need

我們大多數人在這裡的時間都會減少，這意味著可能沒有必要。

for as many restaurants and shops nearby.

因為附近有很多餐館和商店。

How do you think big cities might change as a result of the pandemic?

你認為大城市可能會因為這場大流行而發生怎樣的變化？

I think it's right to expect some conversion of commercial into residential,

我覺得期待一些商業轉為住宅是對的。

so to the extent that we see a drop-off in demand for commercial real estate,

所以，以至於我們看到商業地產的需求下降。

I think we're going to see more robust demand for residential real estate.

我認為我們會看到住宅地產的需求更加旺盛。

Some industry experts agree that there will be less demand for retail spaces going forward.

有業內專家認為，未來零售空間的需求將減少。

In fact, more than 20,000 U.K stores may have closed in 2020, a far greater number than in previous years.

事實上，2020年可能有超過2萬家英國門店關閉，數量遠超往年。

Once it's safe to be together again, we have seen a long-term trend in urban spaces,

一旦再次安全地在一起，我們已經看到了城市空間的長期趨勢。

from commercial spaces that sell goods to commercial spaces that sell experiences,

從賣商品的商業空間到賣體驗的商業空間。

so the coffee shop replaces the toy store. That's, of course, likely to continue.

所以咖啡店取代了玩具店。當然，這種情況很可能會持續下去。

So, in a post-pandemic world, these shops might be transformed into spas, coffee shops, or even a Pilates studio.

所以，在後流行病的世界裡，這些店鋪可能會被改造成水療中心、咖啡店，甚至是普拉提工作室。

It's not just about having fewer people in business districts. The pivot to online shopping,

這不僅僅是商圈人少的問題。對網購的中樞。

another consequence of the pandemic, is also contributing to a different downtown.

疫的另一個後果，也是造成不同的鬧市。

If you look at previous pandemics, everyone afterwards went back to shops and restaurants.

如果你看看以前的流行病，之後大家都回到商店和餐館。

But what pandemics and other shocks have done is accelerate changes that were previously underway,

但是，流行病和其他衝擊所做的是加速了之前正在進行的變革。

and one of those is, of course, the shift to shopping online.

而其中之一，當然是向網上購物的轉變。

But will the demand to keep working from home, at least some of the time, lead to fewer offices too?

但是，保持在家工作的需求，至少部分時間，會不會導致辦公室也減少？

Over 90% of respondents in a U.K. survey said they expect

在英國的一項調查中，有超過90%的受訪者表示，他們期望

firms to scale back their office footprint over the next two years,

公司在未來兩年內縮減其辦公室面積。

with around one in three forecasting a reduction of between 5% and 10%.

約有三分之一的人預測降幅在5%至10%之間。

However, many employees, especially those with smaller homes,

然而，很多員工，尤其是那些家境較好的員工。

or roles requiring them to interact with colleagues and clients,

或需要他們與同事和客戶互動的角色。

are still keen to return to a space where they can socialize,

還是很想回到一個可以社交的空間。

meaning that although firms might reduce their total office space, they will still need a physical presence.

意味著雖然企業可能會減少總的辦公面積，但仍然需要實際的存在。

The age of face-to-face contact is not over by any stretch of the imagination.

面對面接觸的時代無論如何都沒有結束。

We also find it a great deal more fun to be together than we do alone.

我們也覺得在一起比獨自一人更有趣。

So I believe very much that the office is not dead, although it will evolve, for sure,

所以，我非常相信，辦公室並沒有死，雖然會發展，但肯定會發展。

but while the office is not dead it is surely more mobile than it has been in the past.

但是，雖然辦公室沒有死，但肯定比過去更加機動。

So it is surely, you know, easier to imagine picking up your start-up and moving it

所以，你知道，這肯定是，你知道，更容易想象拿起你的創業和移動它。

away from Silicon Valley to Austin, Texas because you know that you can connect with

從硅谷到德克薩斯州奧斯汀，因為你知道，你可以連接到

your former collaborators via Zoom, because you know you can connect with venture capitalists via Zoom.

你以前的合作者，因為你知道你可以通過Zoom與風險投資人聯繫。

And so this mobility means that all cities are in some sense at risk.

所以這種流動性意味著所有的城市在某種意義上都有風險。

Some cities, especially those with abundant outdoor spaces, might gain from the shift towards working from home

一些城市，特別是那些擁有豐富戶外空間的城市，可能會從在家工作的轉變中獲益。

and attract new businesses and citizens. Whereas other big urban areas,

並吸引新的企業和市民。而其他大城區。

where food and housing have traditionally been pricier, might become less attractive.

傳統上食品和住房價格較高的地方，可能會變得不那麼吸引人。

London's population is actually expected to decline this year for the first time in the 21st century,

實際上，今年倫敦的人口有望在21世紀首次出現下降。

as people look for bigger houses beyond the city limits,

由於人們在城市範圍外尋找更大的房子。

migrants leave the capital, and fewer choose to relocate there.

移徙者離開首都，而選擇在那裡重新定居的人則更少。

In the United States, more than half of the 100 largest metropolitan areas

在美國，100個最大的大都市中，有一半以上的地區

are seeing increased interest for housing in their suburbs, too.

正在看到人們對其郊區住房的興趣也在增加。

There's also going to be a group of people for whom they don't move out,

也會有一群人不為他們搬出去。

but they do work from home, and they facilitate that by extending their current residences,

但他們確實在家裡工作，他們通過擴大現有的住所來促進工作。

or building offices in the garden or whatever it might be.

或在花園裡建辦公室什麼的。

I would expect that, you know, scrappy start-ups will continue to be attracted to dense urban areas.

我預計，你知道，廢舊的創業公司將繼續被吸引到密集的城市地區。

Which means that the cities will look a little bit more like they did in the 70s.

這意味著，城市的面貌會更像70年代的樣子。

They will be younger, they will be scruffier, they'll be a little bit more rough around the edges,

他們會更年輕，他們會更邋遢，他們會更粗糙一點的邊緣。

but there's still plenty to love about that as well.

但也還是有很多喜歡的地方。

Many surveys suggest that young professionals are the keenest to return to the office,

許多調查顯示，年輕的專業人員最熱衷於重返辦公室。

even if they don't want to lose the flexibility of working from home either.

即使他們也不想失去在家工作的靈活性。

These early career professionals often live in smaller places, with others,

這些早期職業者往往住在較小的地方，與其他人。

and they value the opportunity of learning from their co-workers as they try to climb the corporate ladder.

並且他們在努力攀登企業階梯的過程中，非常珍惜向同事學習的機會。

So will the pandemic spell the end for big cities?

那麼，疫情會不會給大城市帶來滅頂之災呢？

The way that cities operate and function will, I think, change and that will present challenges,

我認為，城市的營運和運作方式將發生變化，這將帶來挑戰。

but I think there is this idea that the pandemic will spell the end of cities.

但我認為有這樣的想法，大流行將意味著城市的結束。

I think, however, that is overdone, that is probably going to prove to be wrong.

不過，我覺得，這話說得過頭了，那很可能會被證明是錯誤的。

Cities have a way of enduring and adapting if you look through history,

城市有一種經久不衰的方式，如果你縱觀歷史，就會發現它的適應性。

and there's greater economic benefits of connectivity and closeness.

並有更大的經濟效益，連接性和緊密性。

Hi everyone, thank you so much for watching.

大家好，非常感謝大家的觀看。

The pandemic has been changing the big cities, but how has it changed yours?

疫情一直在改變著大城市，但它是如何改變你的城市的？

Let us know in the comments section, and I will see you soon.

請在評論區告訴我們，我們很快就會見面。