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  • Translator: Amanda Chu Reviewer: Peter van de Ven

    謝謝你們

  • Thank you very much.

    當我還小的時候

  • When I was a boy,

    父母時常會帶我去加州露營

  • my parents would sometimes take me camping in California.

    沙灘、森林或沙漠等各種地方都有

  • We would camp in the beaches, in the forests, in the deserts.

    有些人說沙漠沒有生命存在

  • Some people think the deserts are empty of life,

    但我的父母要我去觀察 這些圍繞在四周的野生動物:

  • but my parents taught me to see the wildlife all around us,

    隼、老鷹或陸龜等等

  • the hawks, the eagles, the tortoises.

    有一次我們在紮營時

  • One time when we were setting up camp,

    發現了一隻蠍子寶寶露出牠的螫刺

  • we found a baby scorpion with its stinger out,

    當下我心想,真是太酷了

  • and I remember thinking how cool it was

    怎麼會有這麼可愛 卻又這麼危險的東西

  • that something could be both so cute and also so dangerous.

    大學畢業後,我搬到加州

  • After college, I moved to California,

    著手進行一些環境相關的活動計畫

  • and I started working on a number of environmental campaigns.

    參與了拯救全美 最後一座紅杉森林的工作

  • I got involved in helping to save the state's last ancient redwood forest

    並阻止在沙漠中設置 放射性廢棄物的存放區

  • and blocking a proposed radioactive waste repository

    剛滿 30 歲後不久

  • set for the desert.

    我決定要窮盡一生

  • Shortly after I turned 30,

    去解決氣候變遷的問題

  • I decided I wanted to dedicate a significant amount of my life

    我擔心全球暖化

  • to solving climate change.

    終會摧毀人們竭力 所保護的各種自然環境

  • I was worried that global warming would end up destroying

    要解決這個問題 我認為在技術面很單純

  • many of the natural environments that people had worked so hard to protect.

    在所有的屋頂裝上太陽能板 電動車的普及等

  • I thought the technical solutions were pretty straightforward -

    最大的問題是在政策上

  • solar panels on every roof, electric car in the driveway -

    因此我協助全國最大的勞工工會 以及最大的環保團體共同組織聯盟

  • that the main obstacles were political.

    我們的提案是 3000 億美元的 再生能源投資計畫

  • And so I helped to organize a coalition

    抱持的理念不只是預防氣候變遷

  • of the country's biggest labor unions and biggest environmental groups.

    而且能在一個快速發展的高科技領域

  • Our proposal was for a 300-billion-dollar investment in renewables.

    創造上百萬個工作機會

  • And the idea was not only would we prevent climate change,

    在 2007 年,我們的努力有了成果

  • but we would also create millions of new jobs

    當時的總統候選人 巴拉克·歐巴馬接受了我們的願景

  • in a very fast-growing high-tech sector.

    在 2009 及 2015 年之間

  • Our efforts really paid off in 2007,

    美國在再生能源等潔淨能源技術上 投資了 1500 億美元

  • when then-presidential candidate Barack Obama embraced our vision.

    但一開始,我們就遇到一些問題

  • And between 2009 and 2015, the US invested 150 billion dollars

    第一,屋頂太陽能板發電的 電力成本是太陽能發電廠的兩倍

  • in renewables and other kinds of clean tech.

    且太陽能和風力發電廠

  • But right away, we started to encounter some problems.

    都需要極大面積的土地 來設置太陽能板及風機

  • So first of all, the electricity from solar rooftops

    並建置龐大的電力傳輸系統

  • ends up costing about twice as much as the electricity from solar farms.

    以便將電力從鄉村送去都市

  • And both solar farms and wind farms

    這些事情往往受到當地社區

  • require covering a pretty significant amount of land

    以及保育生物學家的強烈抵制

  • with solar panels and wind turbines

    他們擔心野生鳥類 及其他動物會受到迫害

  • and also building very big transmission lines

    當時很多人在技術方面 努力解決這個問題

  • to bring all that electricity from the countryside into the city.

    很大的一個挑戰是太陽能 及風力發電的間歇特性

  • Both of those things were often very strongly resisted by local communities,

    它們一年只有 10% 到 30% 的時間在發電

  • as well as by conservation biologists

    不過還是有一些提案

  • who were concerned about the impacts on wild-bird species and other animals.

    像是把大壩當作一個巨大的電池

  • Now, there was a lot of other people

    意思是當太陽露出、當風在吹時

  • working on technical solutions at the time.

    馬達會把水打到高處儲存

  • One of the big challenges, of course, is the intermittency of solar and wind.

    當你需要電力時 再這些水送入渦輪發電機組

  • They only generate electricity about 10 to 30 percent of the time

    談到野生動物 問題似乎不那麼令人擔心

  • during most of year.

    家貓每年會殺死數十億隻鳥

  • But some of the solutions being proposed

    相比只有幾十萬隻鳥因風機而死

  • were to convert hydroelectric dams into gigantic batteries.

    這時我在想

  • The idea was that when the sun was shining and the wind was blowing,

    在大規模化太陽能及風力發電時

  • you would pump the water uphill, store it for later,

    那些問題大部分都能以 未來的先進技術來解決

  • and then when you needed electricity, run it over the turbines.

    但幾年過去了

  • In terms of wildlife, some of these problems

    這些問題仍然存在,且越演越烈

  • just didn't seem like a significant concern.

    加州非常致力於再生能源的發展

  • So when I learned that house cats kill billions of birds every year,

    但將水壩改造為大型電池的計畫中

  • it put into perspective the hundreds of thousands of birds

    落成的數量不多

  • that are killed by wind turbines.

    有些只是地理位置上的問題

  • It basically seemed to me at the time

    水壩必須有符合條件的 地形才能改造

  • that most, if not all, of the problems of scaling up solar and wind

    即使能夠符合條件

  • could be solved through more technological innovation.

    仍要很多的資金來實現

  • But as the years went by,

    更不用說還有其他問題 像是灌溉等用水的需求

  • these problems persisted and, in many cases, grew worse.

    或許最嚴重的問題是

  • So California is a state that's really committed to renewable energy,

    加州河川和水庫的水

  • but we still haven't converted many of our hydroelectric dams

    因為氣候變遷的緣故 越來越稀缺又不穩定

  • into big batteries.

    為了不讓穩定性影響整體發電系統

  • Some of the problems are just geographic;

    我們必須將太陽能發電廠 產出的電停止輸送到城市

  • it's just you have to have a very particular kind of formation

    因為現在實在是太多了

  • to be able to do that,

    或是花錢請亞歷桑納等鄰近的州 來消耗我們多餘的太陽能電力

  • and even in those cases,

    否則會造成電網超載,無法供電

  • it's quite expensive to make those conversions.

    說到鳥和家貓

  • Other challenges are just that there's other uses for water,

    貓並不會傷害老鷹,但老鷹會殺害貓

  • like irrigation,

    貓殺的是體型小且常見的 麻雀、松鴉和知更鳥

  • and maybe the most significant problem

    這些鳥並不會有絕種的可能

  • is just that in California the water in our rivers and reservoirs

    老鷹及大型鳥類

  • is growing increasingly scarce and unreliable

    像是齒鷹、貓頭鷹和禿鷹 和其他遭受威脅及瀕臨絕種的物種

  • due to climate change.

    才是風力發電機殺害的鳥類

  • In terms of this issue of reliability, as a consequence of it,

    對這些大型鳥類來說 風機是最大的威脅之一

  • we've actually had to stop the electricity

    近年設置風力機組之前

  • coming from the solar farms into the cities

    我們從來沒有在天空上放這麼多東西

  • because there's just been too much of it at times.

    而說到太陽能

  • Or we've been starting to pay our neighboring states, like Arizona,

    建置太陽能發電廠就像是建置農場

  • to take that solar electricity.

    必須騰出大片土地 清走其中的野生動物

  • The alternative is to suffer from blowouts of the grid.

    這是加州最大的太陽能發電廠之一 照片拍到的只是它的 1/3 ──

  • And it turns out that when it comes to birds and cats -

    艾文帕太陽能發電廠

  • cats don't kill eagles; eagles kill cats.

    為了建置這發電廠

  • What cats kill are the small common sparrows and jays and robins,

    他們必須清走整個區域的沙漠陸龜

  • birds that are not endangered and not at risk of going extinct.

    直接把沙漠陸龜和小陸龜拖出洞穴

  • What do kill eagles and other big birds,

    放到卡車中,運到圈養地

  • like this kite as well as owls and condors

    許多就死在那裡

  • and other threatened and endangered species,

    近期估計每年約有 6000 隻鳥被殺害

  • are wind turbines;

    牠們在太陽能電廠的上方著火

  • in fact, they're one of the most significant threats

    墜地而死

  • to those big bird species that we have.

    隨著時間的過去,我漸漸意識到

  • We just haven't been introducing the airspace with many other objects

    任何技術發展

  • like we have wind turbines over the last several years.

    都不可能讓陽光穩定照射 讓風不斷地吹

  • And in terms of solar,

    你只能把太陽能板變便宜

  • you know, building a solar farm is a lot like building any other kind of farm:

    你只能讓風機變得更大

  • you have to clear the whole area of wildlife.

    而陽光和風力就是這麼的沒效率

  • So this is a picture of one third of one of the biggest solar farms in California,

    而為了產出足夠用的電力

  • called Ivanpah.

    你必須使用大面積的土地

  • In order to build this,

    換句話說,再生能源的 主要問題都不在技術面

  • they had to clear the whole area of desert tortoises,

    是在自然環境面

  • literally pulling desert tortoises and their babies out of burrows,

    要處理這些不穩定的問題

  • putting them on the back of pickup trucks, and transporting them to captivity,

    以及這些環境的巨大衝擊

  • where many of them ended up dying.

    明顯的要付出很大的經濟代價

  • And the current estimates are that about 6,000 birds are killed every year,

    近幾年我們已經聽到太多

  • actually catching on fire above the solar farm

    太陽能板及風力機組價格下降的消息

  • and plunging to their deaths.

    但要把所有不穩定的 發電系統整合到電網上

  • Over time, it gradually struck me

    花費仍然很可觀

  • that there was really no amount of technological innovation

    從加州的情況即可見一斑

  • that was going to make the sun shine more regularly

    在太陽能板和風力機組 價錢大幅下降之際

  • or wind blow more reliably;

    我們所看見的反而是電費漲價幅度 比國內其他地區多了 5 倍

  • in fact, you could make solar panels cheaper,

    這不是我們才有的問題

  • and you could make wind turbines bigger,

    你可以看到相同的狀況發生在德國

  • but sunlight and wind are just really dilute fuels,

    德國在太陽能、風力及其他 再生能源科技方面可說是世界龍頭

  • and in order to produce significant amounts of electricity,

    在大力推動再生能源後 他們的電價上漲了 50%

  • you just have to cover a very large land mass with them.

    你可能會想,對抗氣候變遷

  • In other words, all of the major problems with renewables aren't technical,

    我們就必須在能源上花費更多

  • they're natural.

    我以前也是這麼想的

  • Well, dealing with all of this unreliability

    但看看法國的例子

  • and the big environmental impacts

    以潔淨的零排放發電量來說

  • obviously comes at a pretty high economic cost.

    法國是德國的兩倍

  • We've been hearing a lot

    但電價幾乎是德國的一半

  • about how solar panels and wind turbines have come down in cost in recent years,

    這是如何做到的?

  • but that cost has been significantly outweighed

    你們可能已經猜出答案了

  • by just the challenges of integrating all of that unreliable power onto the grid.

    法國有 75% 的電力來自核能

  • Just take, for instance, what's happened in California.

    核能比再生能源可靠許多

  • At the period in which solar panels have come down in price

    且每天 24 小時 每周 7 天都在發電

  • very significantly, same with wind,

    一年有 90% 的時間在運轉

  • we've seen our electricity prices go up

    我們看到這個現象在全球各地發生

  • five times more than the rest of the country.

    舉例來說

  • And it's not unique to us.

    有個為期 40 多年的自然實驗法研究

  • You can see the same phenomenon happened in Germany,

    針對核能和太陽能的運用做比較

  • which is really the world's leader

    顯示太陽能和風力發電 使用比核能稍高的成本

  • in solar, wind and other renewable technologies.

    發電量卻只有核能的一半

  • Their prices increased 50 percent during their big renewable-energy push.

    這意味著我們應該如何走下去?

  • Now you might think, well, dealing with climate change

    我認爲截至目前最重大的發現是:

  • is just going to require that we all pay more for energy.

    如果德國當時把 5800 億美元的經費 用以發展核能,而非再生能源

  • That's what I used to think.

    現在他們 100% 的電力 以及所有交通運輸的能源

  • But consider the case of France.

    都會是潔淨能源

  • France actually gets twice as much of its electricity

    你們可能會問一個很合理的問題:

  • from clean zero-emission sources than does Germany,

    核能安全嗎? 你要如何處理核廢料?

  • and yet France pays almost half as much for its electricity.

    這些都是非常合理的疑問

  • How can that be?

    這裡有個超過 40 年的 科學研究結果

  • You might have already anticipated the answer.

    最近一次的研究

  • France gets most of its electricity from nuclear power, about 75% in total.

    是由英國的權威醫學雜誌 《刺胳針》進行

  • And nuclear just ends up being a lot more reliable,

    他們發現核能是最安全的

  • generating power 24 hours a day, seven days a week,

    這不難理解

  • for about 90% of the year.

    世界衛生組織表示

  • We see this phenomenon show up at a global level.

    一年約有 7 百萬人死於空氣污染

  • So, for example, there's been a natural experiment

    核能不會造成空污

  • over the last 40 years,

    氣候科學家詹姆士·漢森計算出

  • even more than that,

    到目前為止,核能已經 拯救了近兩百萬條人命

  • in terms of the deployment of nuclear and the deployment of solar.

    連風力發電也比核能更致命

  • You can see that at a little bit higher cost,

    這張照片中是荷蘭的兩位維修工人

  • we got about half as much electricity from solar and wind

    拍照後事隔不久,其中一位 為了躲避火燒而墜落身亡

  • than we did from nuclear.

    另一位則是被大火吞沒

  • Well, what does all this mean for going forward?

    對環境的影響呢?

  • I think one of the most significant findings to date is this one.

    我認爲有一個非常簡單的方法能理解

  • Had Germany spent 580 billion dollars on nuclear instead of renewables,

    鈾是核電廠的能量來源

  • it would already be getting a hundred percent of its electricity

    它的能量密度非常高

  • from clean energy sources, and all of its transportation energy.

    像這顆魔術方塊一樣大小的鈾

  • Now I think you might be wondering, and it's quite reasonable to ask:

    即可產生你一生需要的所有能源

  • Is nuclear power safe? And what do you do with the waste?

    結論是,大量發電 不需要這麼大面積的土地

  • Well, those are very reasonable questions.

    你可以將我剛提到的 艾文帕太陽能電廠

  • Turns out that there's been scientific studies on this

    和加州最後一座核電廠── 代亞布羅峽谷電廠作比較

  • going over 40 years.

    為了產出相同的電力

  • This is just the most recent study,

    太陽能電廠比核電廠 多花了 450 倍的土地面積

  • that was done by the prestigious British medical journal Lancet,

    你需要增加 17 座 像艾文帕的太陽能電廠

  • finds that nuclear power is the safest.

    發電量才會 與代亞布羅峽谷核電廠相同

  • It's easy to understand why.

    此外,太陽能還會降低發電的可靠性

  • According to the WHO,

    如果從原料採集、廢料 和材料吞吐量的角度來看呢?

  • about 7 million people die annually from air pollution.

    這也有被充分的研究過

  • And nuclear plants don't emit that.

    結果是

  • As a result, the climate scientist James Hansen looked at it.

    太陽能板所需的材料 比核電廠多出 17 倍

  • He calculated that nuclear power has already saved

    這些材料包含 水泥、玻璃、混凝土、金屬

  • almost two million lives to date.

    所有核電廠所需的燃料也包含在內

  • It turns out that even wind energy is more deadly than nuclear.

    到頭來,經過整個發電流程

  • This is a photograph taken of two maintenance workers

    核電所產出的廢棄物並不多

  • in the Netherlands,

    這個房間可以容得下 瑞士核電計畫產出的所有廢棄物

  • shortly before one of them fell to his death to avoid the fire,

    核廢料是核能發電的唯一廢棄物

  • and the other one was engulfed in flames.

    它被安全地保存 沒有額外的社會成本

  • Now, what about environmental impact?

    其他方式所產生的電力

  • I think a really easy way to think about it

    排放出的廢棄物都進入了大自然

  • is that uranium fuel, which is what we used to power nuclear plants,

    這些可能是污染物或固體廢棄物

  • is just really energy dense.

    我們以為太陽能發電很乾淨

  • About the same amount of uranium as this Rubik's Cube

    但事實是我們沒有任何計劃

  • can power all of the energy you need in your entire life.

    來處理 20 或 25 年後的 廢棄太陽能板

  • As a consequence,

    許多專家都非常擔心太陽能板 會連同電子產品廢棄物

  • you just don't need that much land

    一起被運往貧窮的 非洲或亞洲國家進行拆解

  • in order to produce a significant amount of electricity.

    工作人員將接觸到 大量的危害性有毒元素

  • Here you can compare the solar farm I just described, Ivanpah,

    包含鉛、鎘和鉻

  • to California's last nuclear plant,

    因為它們是元素,毒性永遠不會降解

  • Diablo Canyon.

    我想我們心裡都知道

  • It takes 450 times more land to generate the same amount of electricity

    核能真是個很強大的能源

  • as it does from nuclear.

    太陽光很分散又微弱

  • You would need 17 more solar farms like Ivanpah

    這也就是為什麼 我們需要有這麼大的面積

  • in order to generate the same output as Diablo Canyon,

    來收集太陽光和風

  • and of course, it would then be unreliable.

    最近的新版《銀翼殺手》科幻片中

  • Well, what about the mining and the waste and the material throughput.

    一開場就是一個灰暗的後末日景象

  • This has been studied pretty closely as well,

    加州的沙漠完全被太陽能板覆蓋

  • and it just turns out

    沒有人會對這一幕感到驚訝

  • that solar panels require 17 times more materials than nuclear plants do,

    我想,這一切讓我們 不禁要提出一個令人不安的問題:

  • in the form of cement, glass, concrete, steel -

    為了拯救氣候,我們要毀掉環境嗎?

  • and that includes all the fuel used for those nuclear plants.

    有趣的是,過去幾百年的時間

  • The consequence is that what comes out at the end, since its material throughput,

    人類其實試著要淘汰 所謂的高物質密度燃料

  • is just not a lot of waste from nuclear.

    而轉移到高能量密度的燃料

  • All of the waste from the Swiss nuclear program fits into this room.

    比如說,從木材、動物乾糞 轉換到煤、石油、天然氣、鈾

  • Nuclear waste is actually the only waste from electricity production

    這是自古以來的現象

  • that's safely contained and internalized.

    有些貧窮國家目前 才逐漸在淘汰木材、乾糞燃料

  • Every other way of making electricity

    大致來說,這是件好事

  • emits that waste into the natural environment,

    當你停止使用木材作為燃料來源

  • either as pollution or as material waste.

    森林有機會重新生長 野生動物才得以回歸大自然

  • We tend to think of solar panels as clean,

    當你停止在家裡燒木材

  • but the truth is that there is no plan

    你不需要再吸入這些有毒氣體

  • to deal with solar panels at the end of their 20 or 25-year life.

    當你開始使用煤、石油、天然氣和鈾 作為能源的主要來源

  • A lot of experts are actually very concerned that solar panels

    徹底消除空氣汙染的 潛在契機就會出現

  • are just going to be shipped to poor countries in Africa or Asia,

    核能有個問題

  • with the rest of our electronic-waste stream,

    大部分人都欣然接受 從污染性能源轉換成潔淨能源

  • to be disassembled,

    以及從低能量密度 轉換成高能量密度能源

  • often exposing people to really high level of toxic elements,

    核能卻因為許多歷史因素 而非常不受歡迎

  • including lead, cadmium and chromium,

    結果,過去我和很多人可能都說過

  • elements that because they're elements, their toxicity never declines over time.

    「為了解決氣候變遷

  • I think we have an intuitive sense

    各種潔淨能源都必須派上用場。」

  • that nuclear is a really powerful strong energy source

    問題是,這並不正確

  • and that sunlight is really dilute and diffuse and weak,

    記得嗎?我先前提到法國

  • which is why you have to spread solar collectors or wind collectors

    法國使用核能來得到大部分的電力

  • over such a large amount of land.

    如果法國增加太陽能 及風力發電的規模

  • Maybe that's why nobody was surprised

    他們就必須大幅減少核能的發電量

  • when in the recent science-fiction remake of Blade Runner,

    原因在於,為了要讓電網能應付 變數較大的太陽能及風力發電

  • the film opens with a very dark dystopian scene

    他們需要使用更多的天然氣

  • where California's deserts have been entirely paved with solar farms.

    你要這樣想:

  • All of which, I think, raises a really uncomfortable question:

    核電廠的電力輸出 很難隨時機動地控制

  • In the effort to try to save the climate, are we destroying the environment?

    但電網的管理像是控制瓦斯爐火大小

  • The interesting thing is that over the last several hundred years,

    可隨時開關調整

  • human beings have actually been trying to move away

    石油、天然氣公司當然都很明白這點

  • from what you would consider matter-dense fuels

    我們都看到他們近年投資數百萬美元 來推動太陽能和風力發電

  • towards energy-dense ones.

    這又引出了另一個具挑戰性的問題: