Name: 【TED】大衛-蒂特利。軍方如何對抗氣候變化（How the military fights climate change | David Titley）。 (【TED】David Titley: How the military fights climate change (How the military fights climate change | David Titley))
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T07:30:38.000Z
Duration: 7 min 42 s

So I'd like to tell you a story about climate and change,

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Regina Chu

程度副詞

but it's really a story about people and not polar bears.

我想要告訴各位一個 關於氣候和變遷的故事，

So this is our house that we lived in in the mid-2000s.

但它其實是一個關於 人的故事，而非北極熊。

I was the chief operating officer for the Navy's weather and ocean service.

這是我們在 2000 年代中期 所居住的房子。

It happened to be down at a place called Stennis Space Center

我是海軍氣象與海洋局營運長。

它剛好是在一個叫做 斯坦尼斯航天中心的地方，

so we lived in a little town called Waveland, Mississippi,

nice modest house, and as you can see, it's up against a storm surge.

所以我們住在一個小鎮， 密西西比的威佛蘭，

what a 30-foot or nine-meter storm surge does

三十英呎或九公尺高的 風暴潮打到街上時，

That's me, kind of wondering what's next.

But when we say we lost our house -- this is, like, right after Katrina --

so the house is either all the way up there in the railway tracks,

那是我，有點搞不清楚 接下來會發生什麼。

or it's somewhere down there in the Gulf of Mexico,

我們說我們的房子不見了 ──那是在卡崔娜颶風之後──

and to this day, we really, we lost our house.

房子要不是一路跑到鐵軌那一頭，

至今，我們的房子真的不見了。

because in many ways, we were the luckiest people on the Gulf Coast.

我呈現這些的目的不是要索取同情，

and that idea of insurance is probably pretty important there.

But does this scale up, you know, what happened here?

我們算是墨西哥灣沿岸最幸運的人。

And I think it kind of does, because as you've heard,

其中一件幸運的事是，我們有保險，

it takes weaker and weaker storms to do something like this.

So let's just step back for a second and kind of look at this.

而我認為還會再擴大， 因為如你們已經聽到過的，

And, you know, climate's really complicated,

不用多強的風暴， 就可以造成這樣的破壞了。

but I kind of put it about it's all about the water.

我們先退後一步，來看看這個現象。

See, see those three blue dots there down on the lower part?

The one you can easily see, that's all the water in the world.

Those two smaller dots, those are the fresh water.

但我覺得可以說，一切都和水有關。

And it turns out that as the climate changes,

the distribution of that water is changing very fundamentally.

很容易看見的那個藍點， 表示全世界所有的水。

So now we have too much, too little, wrong place, wrong time.

兩個比較小的點，它們表示淡水。

It's salty where it should be fresh; it's liquid where it should be frozen;

and in fact, the very chemistry of the ocean itself is changing.

現在我們看到太多水、 太少水、不對的地方、不對的時間。

And what that does from a security or a military part

該是淡水的地方有鹽， 在水該是液態的地方水卻結冰了；

it changes the very operating environment that we're working in,

事實上，連海洋本身的 化學性質也在改變。

and then it has geostrategic risks, which sounds kind of fancy

and I'll explain what I mean by that in a second.

它改變了我們工作的作業環境，

So let's go to just a couple examples here.

And we'll start off with what we all know

且還有地緣戰略的風險， 這聽起來挺炫的，

is of course a political and humanitarian catastrophe

And it turns out that climate was one of the causes

當然，就是政治和人道主義的災難，

he decided he wanted to be self-sufficient in things like wheat and barley.

其實，一切是從 1970 年代開始的。

that there was somebody in Assad's office that said,

"Hey boss, you know, we're in the eastern Mediterranean,

在小麥和大麥方面， 他決定要做到自給自足。

kind of dry here, maybe not the best idea."

在阿薩德的辦公室中有個人說：

"Boss, you are a smart, powerful and handsome man. We'll get right on it."

「嘿，老闆，你知道嗎， 我們在東地中海，

這裡有點乾燥， 這也許不是最好的點子。」

they were actually self-sufficient in food,

「老闆，你是個很聰明、有影響力、 英俊的人。我們馬上去辦。」

they did it at a cost of their surface water.

And of course, there are many nonclimate issues

他們在食物方面確實做到自給自足，

and as you can see by that lower blue line there,

over a million refugees come into the cities.

there's this tremendous heat wave and drought --

yes, this is in fact related to the changing climate --

has put another three quarters of a million farmers

這些狀況上面全是兇手的指紋，

They had dust. They had dirt. They had nothing.

是的，事實上， 這和氣候變遷有關──

it's Assad, it's not like he's taking care of his people,

and all of a sudden we have just this huge issue here

他們只有塵土、泥土。 他們一無所有。

And this is why in the security community

總統是阿薩德， 他並不是會照顧人民的人，

we call climate change a risk to instability.

突然間，我們就有了這個巨大議題，

In plain English, it makes bad places worse.

這就是為什麼在安全共同體中，

Now we're going to go 2,000 kilometers, or about 1,200 miles, north of Oslo,

我們會把氣候變遷 稱為不穩定性的風險。

用白話英文來說， 它會讓不好的地方變更糟。

the most strategic island you've never heard of.

我們要再走 2000 公里 或約 1200 英哩，到北奧斯陸，

that the Russian Northern Fleet needs to get out and go into warmer waters.

【TED】大衛-蒂特利。軍方如何對抗氣候變化（How the military fights climate change | David Titley）。 (【TED】David Titley: How the military fights climate change (How the military fights climate change | David Titley))

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【TED】大衛-蒂特利。軍方如何對抗氣候變化（How the military fights climate change | David Titley）。 (【TED】David Titley: How the military fights climate change (How the military fights climate change | David Titley))

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