but it's really a story about people and not polar bears.

我想要告訴各位一個 關於氣候和變遷的故事，

So this is our house that we lived in in the mid-2000s.

但它其實是一個關於 人的故事，而非北極熊。

I was the chief operating officer for the Navy's weather and ocean service.

這是我們在 2000 年代中期 所居住的房子。

It happened to be down at a place called Stennis Space Center

我是海軍氣象與海洋局營運長。

right on the Gulf Coast,

它剛好是在一個叫做 斯坦尼斯航天中心的地方，

so we lived in a little town called Waveland, Mississippi,

就在墨西哥灣沿岸地區，

nice modest house, and as you can see, it's up against a storm surge.

所以我們住在一個小鎮， 密西西比的威佛蘭，

Now, if you ever wonder

它是間樸素的好房子，

what a 30-foot or nine-meter storm surge does

如你們所見，它面對風暴潮。

coming up your street,

如果你曾納悶過，

let me show you.

三十英呎或九公尺高的 風暴潮打到街上時，

Same house.

會造成什麼狀況，

That's me, kind of wondering what's next.

讓我呈現給你們看。

But when we say we lost our house -- this is, like, right after Katrina --

同一間房子。

so the house is either all the way up there in the railway tracks,

那是我，有點搞不清楚 接下來會發生什麼。

or it's somewhere down there in the Gulf of Mexico,

我們說我們的房子不見了 ──那是在卡崔娜颶風之後──

and to this day, we really, we lost our house.

房子要不是一路跑到鐵軌那一頭，

We don't know where it is.

就是到了墨西哥灣那一頭，

(Laughter)

至今，我們的房子真的不見了。

You know, it's gone.

我們不知道它在哪裡。

So I don't show this for pity,

（笑聲）

because in many ways, we were the luckiest people on the Gulf Coast.

你們知道的，它不見了。

One of the things is, we had insurance,

我呈現這些的目的不是要索取同情，

and that idea of insurance is probably pretty important there.

因為從許多方面看，

But does this scale up, you know, what happened here?

我們算是墨西哥灣沿岸最幸運的人。

And I think it kind of does, because as you've heard,

其中一件幸運的事是，我們有保險，

as the sea levels come up,

在這裡，保險是相當重要的。

it takes weaker and weaker storms to do something like this.

這裡發生的事是否會再擴大？

So let's just step back for a second and kind of look at this.

而我認為還會再擴大， 因為如你們已經聽到過的，

And, you know, climate's really complicated,

隨著海平面上升，

a lot of moving parts in this,

不用多強的風暴， 就可以造成這樣的破壞了。

but I kind of put it about it's all about the water.

我們先退後一步，來看看這個現象。

See, see those three blue dots there down on the lower part?

氣候是很複雜的，

The one you can easily see, that's all the water in the world.

當中有許多持續在動的部分，

Those two smaller dots, those are the fresh water.

但我覺得可以說，一切都和水有關。

And it turns out that as the climate changes,

看到下半部有三個藍點了嗎？

the distribution of that water is changing very fundamentally.

很容易看見的那個藍點， 表示全世界所有的水。

So now we have too much, too little, wrong place, wrong time.

兩個比較小的點，它們表示淡水。

It's salty where it should be fresh; it's liquid where it should be frozen;

結果發現，隨著氣候變遷，

it's wet where it should be dry;

水的分佈也有根本上的改變。

and in fact, the very chemistry of the ocean itself is changing.

現在我們看到太多水、 太少水、不對的地方、不對的時間。

And what that does from a security or a military part

該是淡水的地方有鹽， 在水該是液態的地方水卻結冰了；

is it does three things:

該乾燥的地方卻是濕的；

it changes the very operating environment that we're working in,

事實上，連海洋本身的 化學性質也在改變。

it threatens our bases,

它對於安全或是軍方的影響，

and then it has geostrategic risks, which sounds kind of fancy

包括下列三項：

and I'll explain what I mean by that in a second.

它改變了我們工作的作業環境，

So let's go to just a couple examples here.

它威脅我們的基地，

And we'll start off with what we all know

且還有地緣戰略的風險， 這聽起來挺炫的，

is of course a political and humanitarian catastrophe

我等一下就會解釋它的意思。

that is Syria.

我們先來看幾個例子。

And it turns out that climate was one of the causes

我們先從大家都知道的開始，

in a long chain of events.

當然，就是政治和人道主義的災難，

It actually started back in the 1970s.

也就是敘利亞。

When Assad took control over Syria,

結果發現，氣候是一系列

he decided he wanted to be self-sufficient in things like wheat and barley.

連鎖事件的成因之一。

Now, you would like to think

其實，一切是從 1970 年代開始的。

that there was somebody in Assad's office that said,

阿薩德接管了敘利亞，

"Hey boss, you know, we're in the eastern Mediterranean,

在小麥和大麥方面， 他決定要做到自給自足。

kind of dry here, maybe not the best idea."

你會希望，

But I think what happened was,

在阿薩德的辦公室中有個人說：

"Boss, you are a smart, powerful and handsome man. We'll get right on it."

「嘿，老闆，你知道嗎， 我們在東地中海，

And they did.

這裡有點乾燥， 這也許不是最好的點子。」

So by the '90s, believe it or not,

但我認為，真正的狀況的是：

they were actually self-sufficient in food,

「老闆，你是個很聰明、有影響力、 英俊的人。我們馬上去辦。」

but they did it at a great cost.

他們就做了。

They did it at a cost of their aquifers,

所以，到了 1990 年代，

they did it at a cost of their surface water.

信不信由你，

And of course, there are many nonclimate issues

他們在食物方面確實做到自給自足，

that also contributed to Syria.

但他們這麼做的代價很大。

There was the Iraq War,

代價是他們的地下蓄水層，

and as you can see by that lower blue line there,

犧牲了他們的地表水。

over a million refugees come into the cities.

當然，有許多非氣候的議題，

And then about a decade ago,

也影響著敘利亞。

there's this tremendous heat wave and drought --

有伊拉克戰爭，

fingerprints all over that show,

你們可以看看下方的藍線，

yes, this is in fact related to the changing climate --

有超過一百萬難民來到城市。

has put another three quarters of a million farmers

接著，大約十年前，

into those same cities.

發生了驚人的熱浪和乾旱──

Why? Because they had nothing.

這些狀況上面全是兇手的指紋，

They had dust. They had dirt. They had nothing.

是的，事實上， 這和氣候變遷有關──

So now they're in the cities,

讓一百萬農夫的四分之三

the Iraqis are in the cities,

也都進入這些城市中。

it's Assad, it's not like he's taking care of his people,

為什麼？因為他們一無所有。

and all of a sudden we have just this huge issue here

他們只有塵土、泥土。 他們一無所有。

of massive instability

所以，現在他們在城市中，

and a breeding ground for extremism.

伊拉克人在城市中，

And this is why in the security community

總統是阿薩德， 他並不是會照顧人民的人，

we call climate change a risk to instability.

突然間，我們就有了這個巨大議題，

It accelerates instability here.

這個議題就是極度的不穩定性

In plain English, it makes bad places worse.

以及極端主義的滋生地。

So let's go to another place here.

這就是為什麼在安全共同體中，

Now we're going to go 2,000 kilometers, or about 1,200 miles, north of Oslo,

我們會把氣候變遷 稱為不穩定性的風險。

only 600 miles from the Pole,

在這裡，它會加速不穩定性。

and this is arguably

用白話英文來說， 它會讓不好的地方變更糟。

the most strategic island you've never heard of.

我們再來看看另一個地方。

It's a place called Svalbard.

我們要再走 2000 公里 或約 1200 英哩，到北奧斯陸，

It sits astride the sea lanes

離北極只有 600 英哩，

that the Russian Northern Fleet needs to get out and go into warmer waters.

這可以說是

It is also, by virtue of its geography,

你從來沒有聽過， 卻最具戰略性的島嶼。

a place where you can control every single polar orbiting satellite

這個地方叫做斯瓦巴。

on every orbit.

它橫跨各個海上航路，

It is the strategic high ground of space.

俄國的北方艦隊需要從這些航路出去

Climate change has greatly reduced the sea ice around here,

到更溫暖的水域。

greatly increasing human activity,

此外，因為這個地方的地勢，

and it's becoming a flashpoint,

從這裡，你能控制在每條軌道上 環繞的每一顆繞極軌道衛星。

and in fact the NATO Parliamentary Assembly

它是太空的策略性高地。

is going to meet here on Svalbard next month.

氣候變遷大大減少了這裡的海冰，

The Russians are very, very unhappy about that.

大大增加了人類活動，

So if you want to find a flashpoint in the Arctic,

它變成了一觸即發的爆發點，

look at Svalbard there.

事實上，北大西洋公約組織議會大會

Now, in the military,

下個月將會在斯瓦巴這裡開會。

we have known for decades, if not centuries,

俄國人對此非常不高興。

that the time to prepare,

如果你想要在北極圈找一個爆發點，

whether it's for a hurricane, a typhoon or strategic changes,

那就是斯瓦巴了。

is before they hit you,

在軍中，

and Admiral Nimitz was right there.

數百年或至少數十年來，我們都知道

That is the time to prepare.

面對不論是颶風、

Fortunately, our Secretary of Defense,

颱風，或策略改變，做準備的時間點

Secretary Mattis, he understands that as well,

是在它來襲之前。

and what he understands is that climate is a risk.

尼米茲將軍就在那裡。

He has said so in his written responses to Congress,

那就是做準備的時間點。

and he says, "As Secretary of Defense,

幸運的是，我們的國防部長，

it's my job to manage such risks."

馬提斯部長，他也了解這一點，

It's not only the US military that understands this.

他了解的是，氣候是一項風險。

Many of our friends and allies in other navies and other militaries

他在給國會的 書面回應中提到這一點，

have very clear-eyed views about the climate risk.

他寫說：「身為國防部長，

And in fact, in 2014, I was honored to speak for a half-a-day seminar

我的工作就是要管理這類風險。」

at the International Seapower Symposium

不只有美國軍方了解這一點。

to 70 heads of navies about this issue.

我們在其他海軍及軍隊中的 許多朋友和盟友

So Winston Churchill is alleged to have said,

對於氣候風險有著非常清晰的了解。

I'm not sure if he said anything, but he's alleged to have said

事實上，2014 年， 我有榮幸在為期半天的

that Americans can always be counted upon to do the right thing

國際海權研討會上演說，

after exhausting every other possibility.

與七十位海軍將領談論這個議題。

(Laughter)

據說邱吉爾說過，

So I would argue we're still in the process

我不確定他說過什麼， 但據說他說過，

of exhausting every other possibility,

永遠可以仰賴美國人， 相信他們會做對的事，

but I do think we will prevail.

如果所有其他可能性都已用盡的話。

But I need your help.

（笑聲）

This is my ask.

我會爭辯說，我們還在努力用盡

I ask not that you take your recycling out on Wednesday,

所有其他可能性的過程當中，

but that you engage with every business leader,

但我確實認為我們會獲勝。

every technology leader, every government leader,

但我需要你們協助。

and ask them, "Ma'am, sir,

這是我的請願。

what are you doing to stabilize the climate?"

我請求的不是你們要在 星期三把回收物拿出來回收，

It's just that simple.

而是要你們去接觸每一位企業領導者、

Because when enough people care enough,

每一位科技領導者、 每一位政府領導者，

the politicians, most of whom won't lead on this issue --

並問他們：「女士／先生，

but they will be led --

你做了什麼事來穩定氣候？」

that will change this.

就這麼簡單。

Because I can tell you, the ice doesn't care.

因為，當足夠的人有足夠的在乎，

The ice doesn't care who's in the White House.

在這個議題上，雖然 大部分政客不會帶頭──

It doesn't care which party controls your congress.

但他們會被引領──

It doesn't care which party controls your parliament.

那就能改變這狀況。

It just melts.

因為我能告訴各位，冰並不在乎。

Thank you very much.

冰並不在乎誰坐鎮白宮。

(Applause)

冰並不在乎哪個黨派控制你的國會。