like SOPA in the United States

最近對於著作權法的爭論

and the ACTA agreement in Europe

像美國的SOPA禁止網絡盜版法案(Stop Online Piracy Act)

has been very emotional.

以及歐洲的ACTA 反仿冒貿易協定（Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement)

And I think some dispassionate, quantitative reasoning

有點過度情緒化

could really bring a great deal to the debate.

不過我覺得一些理性且有數據的理論

I'd therefore like to propose

對這個辯論會有更大的幫助

that we employ, we enlist,

因此我想建議

the cutting edge field of copyright math

我們可以充分運用

whenever we approach this subject.

這個尖端領域: copyright math(版權數學法)

For instance, just recently

當我們涉及這個話題時

the Motion Picture Association revealed

像是不久之前

that our economy loses 58 billion dollars a year

美國電影協會（Motion Picture Association of America) 發現

to copyright theft.

盜版使我們的經濟

Now rather than just argue about this number,

一年損失580億美金

a copyright mathematician will analyze it

現在與其對這個數字進行爭辯

and he'll soon discover that this money

版權數學家會分析這個數字

could stretch from this auditorium

並且很快會發現這筆錢

all the way across Ocean Boulevard

可以從這個演講廳

to the Westin, and then to Mars ...

堆到海洋大道

(Laughter)

再到威士汀酒店然後到火星

... if we use pennies.

(笑聲)

Now this is obviously a powerful,

當然.....要是我們使用銅板來堆這些錢

some might say dangerously powerful, insight.

現在這明顯是個強大的

But it's also a morally important one.

有人甚至會說是個異常強大的事

Because this isn't just the hypothetical retail value

這同時也是個具有重大道德意思的一件事

of some pirated movies that we're talking about,

因為這不僅是我們說的

but this is actual economic losses.

盜版電影的預設零售價

This is the equivalent

這是一個真正的經濟損失

to the entire American corn crop failing

這個損失相當於

along with all of our fruit crops,

美國整體玉米種植量的損失

as well as wheat, tobacco,

並且加上水果

rice, sorghum --

小麥,菸草

whatever sorghum is -- losing sorghum.

米及高粱

But identifying the actual losses to the economy

不管高粱是什麼，我們就是損失了高粱

is almost impossible to do

要真正去計算經濟上的損失

unless we use copyright math.

是幾乎不可能的

Now music revenues are down by about eight billion dollars a year

除非我們使用版權數學法

since Napster first came on the scene.

現在音樂產業每年損失近80億美金

So that's a chunk of what we're looking for.

因為Napster的出現

But total movie revenues

所以這塊是我們所要研究的

across theaters, home video and pay-per-view are up.

但是整個電影產業的收入

And TV, satellite and cable revenues are way up.

包括電影,家庭劇院以及點播購買電視節目的卻上升了

Other content markets like book publishing and radio

而普通電視,衛星電視以及有線電視的收入也大幅提升

are also up.

其它產業像是書籍出版以及廣播節目

So this small missing chunk here

的收入也跟著提升

is puzzling.

因此損失的這塊

(Laughter)

是讓人感到困惑的

(Applause)

(笑聲)

Since the big content markets

(掌聲)

have grown in line with historic norms,

但整體的市場

it's not additional growth that piracy has prevented,

還是隨著過去的標準成長

but copyright math tells us

盜版並沒有對主要市場造成太大的影響

it must therefore be foregone growth

從版權數學法中我們可以得知

in a market that has no historic norms --

在過往一定有一個成長

one that didn't exist in the 90's.

是沒有遵循著以往的標準

What we're looking at here

並且在90年代時尚未出現

is the insidious cost of ringtone piracy.

我們現在看的是

(Laughter)

電話鈴聲潛在的侵權損失

50 billion dollars of it a year,

(笑聲)

which is enough, at 30 seconds a ringtone,

每年會造成500億美金的損失

that could stretch from here

這已經夠多了, 一個鈴聲30秒

to Neanderthal times.

可以從這裡一直延伸到

(Laughter)

尼安德塔人的時代

It's true.

(笑聲)

(Applause)

這是事實

I have Excel.

(鼓掌)

(Laughter)

我用Excel來計算的

The movie folks also tell us

(笑聲)

that our economy loses

電影行業的人跟我說

over 370,000 jobs to content theft,

我們經濟損失中

which is quite a lot when you consider that, back in '98,

有超過370,000人是因為版權侵占而失業的

the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated

這個數字是相當驚人的

that the motion picture and video industries

在1998年 美國勞動統計局表示

were employing 270,000 people.

整個動畫以及影片相關產業

Other data has the music industry at about 45,000 people.

共雇用了270,000人

And so the job losses that came with the Internet

另一資料顯示，音樂產業雇用了約45,000人

and all that content theft,

隨著網路普及後的失業潮

have therefore left us with negative employment in our content industries.

以及版權侵占而來的失業

And this is just one of the many mind-blowing statistics

使我們的內容產業損失很大

that copyright mathematicians have to deal with every day.

這僅是許多讓人沮喪的統計數字之一

And some people think that string theory is tough.

版權數學家每天都要面對這些數據

(Laughter)

有人認弦理論很難

Now this is a key number from the copyright mathematicians' toolkit.

(笑聲)

It's the precise amount of harm

這是版權數學家一個很重要的工具

that comes to media companies

這是一個很準確的損失數據

whenever a single copyrighted song or movie

當傳媒公司

gets pirated.

有任何一首歌或是電影

Hollywood and Congress derived this number mathematically

遭到侵權時

back when they last sat down to improve copyright damages

這個數據是好萊塢跟國會

and made this law.

為減少侵權損失，修定版權法時

Some people think this number's a little bit large,

所計算出來的

but copyright mathematicians who are media lobby experts

有人覺得這個數字太大了

are merely surprised

而身為傳媒界的計算專家,版權數學家們

that it doesn't get compounded for inflation every year.

僅對於這個數據

Now when this law first passed,

並沒有跟著通貨膨脹而增加感到驚訝

the world's hottest MP3 player could hold just 10 songs.

而當這個法律通過後

And it was a big Christmas hit.

市面上最熱銷的MP3播放器僅能存10首歌而已

Because what little hoodlum wouldn't want

並且這會是聖誕節最熱銷的禮物

a million and a half bucks-worth of stolen goods in his pocket.

因為小流氓不會將

(Laughter)

價值150萬美金的贓物放在口袋裡

(Applause)

(笑聲)

These days an iPod Classic can hold 40,000 songs,

(掌聲)

which is to say eight billion dollars-worth

現在一台iPod Classic可以存放40,000首歌

of stolen media.

這也就是說相當於8億美金的

(Applause)

盜版音樂

Or about 75,000 jobs.

(掌聲)

(Laughter)

或是相當於75,000個工作

(Applause)

(笑聲)

Now you might find copyright math strange,

(掌聲)

but that's because it's a field

或許你會覺得版權數學法很奇怪

that's best left to experts.

那是因為這是一個特別的領域

So that's it for now.

只適合專家們去研究

I hope you'll join me next time

今天就先到這裡

when I will be making an equally scientific and fact-based inquiry

希望下次

into the cost of alien music piracy to he American economy.

當我在對國外盜版音樂對於美國經濟的損失

Thank you very much.

用比較科學且有事實根據的調查時,還能看到你們

(Applause)

謝謝你們

Thank you.

(掌聲)

(Applause)

謝謝大家