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  • The recent debate over copyright laws

    譯者: Yen Chu Lin 審譯者: Joyce Chou

  • like SOPA in the United States

    最近對於著作權法的爭論

  • and the ACTA agreement in Europe

    像美國的SOPA禁止網絡盜版法案(Stop Online Piracy Act)

  • has been very emotional.

    以及歐洲的ACTA 反仿冒貿易協定(Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement)

  • And I think some dispassionate, quantitative reasoning

    有點過度情緒化

  • could really bring a great deal to the debate.

    不過我覺得一些理性且有數據的理論

  • I'd therefore like to propose

    對這個辯論會有更大的幫助

  • that we employ, we enlist,

    因此我想建議

  • the cutting edge field of copyright math

    我們可以充分運用

  • whenever we approach this subject.

    這個尖端領域: copyright math(版權數學法)

  • For instance, just recently

    當我們涉及這個話題時

  • the Motion Picture Association revealed

    像是不久之前

  • that our economy loses 58 billion dollars a year

    美國電影協會(Motion Picture Association of America) 發現

  • to copyright theft.

    盜版使我們的經濟

  • Now rather than just argue about this number,

    一年損失580億美金

  • a copyright mathematician will analyze it

    現在與其對這個數字進行爭辯

  • and he'll soon discover that this money

    版權數學家會分析這個數字

  • could stretch from this auditorium

    並且很快會發現這筆錢

  • all the way across Ocean Boulevard

    可以從這個演講廳

  • to the Westin, and then to Mars ...

    堆到海洋大道

  • (Laughter)

    再到威士汀酒店然後到火星

  • ... if we use pennies.

    (笑聲)

  • Now this is obviously a powerful,

    當然.....要是我們使用銅板來堆這些錢

  • some might say dangerously powerful, insight.

    現在這明顯是個強大的

  • But it's also a morally important one.

    有人甚至會說是個異常強大的事

  • Because this isn't just the hypothetical retail value

    這同時也是個具有重大道德意思的一件事

  • of some pirated movies that we're talking about,

    因為這不僅是我們說的

  • but this is actual economic losses.

    盜版電影的預設零售價

  • This is the equivalent

    這是一個真正的經濟損失

  • to the entire American corn crop failing

    這個損失相當於

  • along with all of our fruit crops,

    美國整體玉米種植量的損失

  • as well as wheat, tobacco,

    並且加上水果

  • rice, sorghum --

    小麥,菸草

  • whatever sorghum is -- losing sorghum.

    米及高粱

  • But identifying the actual losses to the economy

    不管高粱是什麼,我們就是損失了高粱

  • is almost impossible to do

    要真正去計算經濟上的損失

  • unless we use copyright math.

    是幾乎不可能的

  • Now music revenues are down by about eight billion dollars a year

    除非我們使用版權數學法

  • since Napster first came on the scene.

    現在音樂產業每年損失近80億美金

  • So that's a chunk of what we're looking for.

    因為Napster的出現

  • But total movie revenues

    所以這塊是我們所要研究的

  • across theaters, home video and pay-per-view are up.

    但是整個電影產業的收入

  • And TV, satellite and cable revenues are way up.

    包括電影,家庭劇院以及點播購買電視節目的卻上升了

  • Other content markets like book publishing and radio

    而普通電視,衛星電視以及有線電視的收入也大幅提升

  • are also up.

    其它產業像是書籍出版以及廣播節目

  • So this small missing chunk here

    的收入也跟著提升

  • is puzzling.

    因此損失的這塊

  • (Laughter)

    是讓人感到困惑的

  • (Applause)

    (笑聲)

  • Since the big content markets

    (掌聲)

  • have grown in line with historic norms,

    但整體的市場

  • it's not additional growth that piracy has prevented,

    還是隨著過去的標準成長

  • but copyright math tells us

    盜版並沒有對主要市場造成太大的影響

  • it must therefore be foregone growth

    從版權數學法中我們可以得知

  • in a market that has no historic norms --

    在過往一定有一個成長

  • one that didn't exist in the 90's.

    是沒有遵循著以往的標準

  • What we're looking at here

    並且在90年代時尚未出現

  • is the insidious cost of ringtone piracy.

    我們現在看的是

  • (Laughter)

    電話鈴聲潛在的侵權損失

  • 50 billion dollars of it a year,

    (笑聲)

  • which is enough, at 30 seconds a ringtone,

    每年會造成500億美金的損失

  • that could stretch from here

    這已經夠多了, 一個鈴聲30秒

  • to Neanderthal times.

    可以從這裡一直延伸到

  • (Laughter)

    尼安德塔人的時代

  • It's true.

    (笑聲)

  • (Applause)

    這是事實

  • I have Excel.

    (鼓掌)

  • (Laughter)

    我用Excel來計算的

  • The movie folks also tell us

    (笑聲)

  • that our economy loses

    電影行業的人跟我說

  • over 370,000 jobs to content theft,

    我們經濟損失中

  • which is quite a lot when you consider that, back in '98,

    有超過370,000人是因為版權侵占而失業的

  • the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated

    這個數字是相當驚人的

  • that the motion picture and video industries

    在1998年 美國勞動統計局表示

  • were employing 270,000 people.

    整個動畫以及影片相關產業

  • Other data has the music industry at about 45,000 people.

    共雇用了270,000人

  • And so the job losses that came with the Internet

    另一資料顯示,音樂產業雇用了約45,000人

  • and all that content theft,

    隨著網路普及後的失業潮

  • have therefore left us with negative employment in our content industries.

    以及版權侵占而來的失業

  • And this is just one of the many mind-blowing statistics

    使我們的內容產業損失很大

  • that copyright mathematicians have to deal with every day.

    這僅是許多讓人沮喪的統計數字之一

  • And some people think that string theory is tough.

    版權數學家每天都要面對這些數據

  • (Laughter)

    有人認弦理論很難

  • Now this is a key number from the copyright mathematicians' toolkit.

    (笑聲)

  • It's the precise amount of harm

    這是版權數學家一個很重要的工具

  • that comes to media companies

    這是一個很準確的損失數據

  • whenever a single copyrighted song or movie

    當傳媒公司

  • gets pirated.

    有任何一首歌或是電影

  • Hollywood and Congress derived this number mathematically

    遭到侵權時

  • back when they last sat down to improve copyright damages

    這個數據是好萊塢跟國會

  • and made this law.

    為減少侵權損失,修定版權法時

  • Some people think this number's a little bit large,

    所計算出來的

  • but copyright mathematicians who are media lobby experts

    有人覺得這個數字太大了

  • are merely surprised

    而身為傳媒界的計算專家,版權數學家們

  • that it doesn't get compounded for inflation every year.

    僅對於這個數據

  • Now when this law first passed,

    並沒有跟著通貨膨脹而增加感到驚訝

  • the world's hottest MP3 player could hold just 10 songs.

    而當這個法律通過後

  • And it was a big Christmas hit.

    市面上最熱銷的MP3播放器僅能存10首歌而已

  • Because what little hoodlum wouldn't want

    並且這會是聖誕節最熱銷的禮物

  • a million and a half bucks-worth of stolen goods in his pocket.

    因為小流氓不會將

  • (Laughter)

    價值150萬美金的贓物放在口袋裡

  • (Applause)

    (笑聲)

  • These days an iPod Classic can hold 40,000 songs,

    (掌聲)

  • which is to say eight billion dollars-worth

    現在一台iPod Classic可以存放40,000首歌

  • of stolen media.

    這也就是說相當於8億美金的

  • (Applause)

    盜版音樂

  • Or about 75,000 jobs.

    (掌聲)

  • (Laughter)

    或是相當於75,000個工作

  • (Applause)

    (笑聲)

  • Now you might find copyright math strange,

    (掌聲)

  • but that's because it's a field

    或許你會覺得版權數學法很奇怪

  • that's best left to experts.

    那是因為這是一個特別的領域

  • So that's it for now.

    只適合專家們去研究

  • I hope you'll join me next time

    今天就先到這裡

  • when I will be making an equally scientific and fact-based inquiry

    希望下次

  • into the cost of alien music piracy to he American economy.

    當我在對國外盜版音樂對於美國經濟的損失

  • Thank you very much.

    用比較科學且有事實根據的調查時,還能看到你們

  • (Applause)

    謝謝你們

  • Thank you.

    (掌聲)

  • (Applause)

    謝謝大家

The recent debate over copyright laws

譯者: Yen Chu Lin 審譯者: Joyce Chou

字幕與單字

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 TED 損失 版權 產業 數學家 美金

【TED】羅伯-裡德。80億美元的iPod(The $80 billion iPod | Rob Reid) (【TED】Rob Reid: The $8 billion iPod (The $8 billion iPod | Rob Reid))

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    Zenn 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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