Good afternoon, I'm proud to be here at TEDxKrakow.

午安，我很榮幸能來到TEDx Krakow（克拉科夫，波蘭）。

I'll try to speak a little bit today about a phenomenon

今天我會提到一種現象，

which can, and actually is changing the world,

一種能夠亦已經在改變世界的現象，

and whose name is people power.

這個現象就是人民的力量。

I'll start with an anecdote,

讓我先來與你們分享一段故事，

or for those of you who are Monty Python lovers,

如果你們是蒙提·派森（英國喜劇團體）的愛好者的話， 這是一個蒙提·派森式的小品。

a Monty Python type of sketch.

故事是這樣的。2010年12月15日

Here it is.

有人和你打賭。你會在水晶球裡，

It is December 15, 2010.

看到未來，而且是準確的未來。

Somebody gives you a bet: you will look at a crystal ball,

但是你必須把你所看到的公諸於眾。你願意嗎？

and you will see the future; the future will be accurate.

好奇心會殺死一隻貓。你接受了挑戰。

But you need to share it with the world.

你往水晶球裡看了進去。一個小時後，

OK, curiosity killed the cat, you take the bet,

你坐在一棟全國性電視台的大樓裡，

you look at the crystal ball.

在脱口秀中接受訪問，講述你在水晶球裡看到的事情。

One hour later, you're sitting in a building of the national TV,

“2011年結束之前，本·阿里(突尼西亞前總統)、 穆巴拉克(埃及前總理)、

in a top show, and you tell the story.

和格達費(利比亞前總理) 都會垮台並被起訴。

Before the end of 2011,

葉門的薩利赫和敘利亞的阿薩德

Ben Ali, and Mubarak, and Gaddafi would be down,

會受到挑戰或屈服於壓力。

and prosecuted.

奧薩瑪賓拉登會死亡，

Saleh of Yemen and Assad of Syria

然後拉特科·姆拉迪奇會在荷蘭哈牙受審 (國際戰爭罪)“。

would be either challenged, or already on their knees.

現在，節目主持人用奇怪的眼神看著你，

Osama bin Laden would be dead,

接著，你繼續把故事說下去，

and Ratko Mladic would be in the Hague.

" 然後在雅典、馬德里還有紐約，

Now, the anchor watches you with a strange gaze on his face.

成千上萬的年輕人為了社會的公理而走上街頭，

And then, on top of it you add:

宣稱他們是受到了阿拉伯世界的鼓舞。"

"And thousands of young people from Athens, Madrid and New York

接下來你所能記得的，是兩個穿著白色衣服的人出現。

will demonstrate for social justice, claiming they are inspired by Arabs."

他們給你一件奇怪的T恤衫，

Next thing you know, two guys in white appear,

把你帶到最近的一間心理治療中心。

they give you the strange t-shirt,

所以我想講的這個現象，

take you to the nearest mental institution.

對於那些壞蛋來說這似乎是個走衰運的一年，

So I would like to speak a little bit

這個現象就是人民的力量。

about the phenomenon which is behind what already seems to be

事實上，人民的力量已經存在好一陣子了。

a very bad year for bad guys.

它幫助了甘地把英國人趕出印度。

And this phenomenon is called people power.

它幫助馬丁·路德·金恩贏了一場歷史悠久的種族抗爭。

Well, people power has been there for a while.

它幫助了萊赫·華勒沙

It helped Gandhi kick the Brits from India,

將蘇聯的百萬大軍逐出波蘭，

it helped Martin Luther King win his historic racial struggle.

並引發了我們所知的蘇聯解體。

It helped a local, Lech Walesa,

這裡頭有甚麼我們不知道的呢?

to kick out one million Soviet troops from Poland,

我今天要和各位分享的是一個嶄新的想法，

and in beginning the end of the Soviet Union as we know it.

有一套可以學習並傳授的規則和技巧

So what's new in it?

可以用來進行非暴力式的抗爭。

What seems to be very new,

如果這是真的的話，我們可以對這些運動提供幫助。

which is the idea I would like to share with you today,

首先，分析技能。

is that there is a set of rules and skills

這一切都是從中東開始的，

which can be learned and taught

這麼多年以來，我們平常對於中東的認知

in order to perform successful nonviolent struggle.

有著全然的錯誤。

If this is true, we can help these movements.

那裏從前看起來像是一塊不會改變的地區， 打個比方，就像是冰箱一樣，

Well, the first one - analytic skills.

然而這冰箱裡只有兩種食物 :

I'll try where it all started in the Middle East.

第一種是牛排，代表的是 穆巴拉克 和 本·阿里 這類

And for so many years,

軍事政權獨裁者 ; 第二種是馬鈴薯，

we were living with a completely wrong perception of the Middle East.

代表的是伊朗德黑蘭這類的神權政治。

It was looking like the frozen region.

當這個冰箱被打開來的時候， 每個人都為此感到驚訝，

Literally a refrigerator.

接著數百萬來自平民階層的年輕人， 為了做出改變而站了出來

And there were only two types of meal there.

各位知道嗎? 他們忽略了人口統計的相關數據。

Steak, which stands for a Mubarak-Ben Ali type of military police dictatorship,

埃及人的平均年齡是多少? 24歲

or a potato, which stands for a Tehran type of theocracies.

穆巴拉克在位時間有多久? 31年

And everybody was amazed when the refrigerator opened,

這代表這是一個老舊的政權。它們已經過期了。

and millions of young, mainly secular people

然而阿拉伯世界的年輕人在一夜之間覺醒了，

stepped out to do the change.

並了解到實質的力量其實掌握在他們手中。

Guess what - they didn't watch the demographics.

接下來的事正在我們眼前發生中。接著發生了甚麼事?

What is the average age of an Egyptian? 24.

同一群 Epsilon 世代的人，擁有他們自己的規則， (Generation Epsilon 阿拉伯世界 18~29 歲反抗獨裁政權的人)

How long was Mubarak in power? 31.

他們自己的工具，他們自己的遊戲和語言，

So, this system was just obsolete, they expired.

這對已經38歲的我來說有一點的新奇。

And young people of the Arab world have awakened one morning,

你可以去看看那些在歐洲上街頭的群眾的年齡嗎?

and understood that power lies in their hands.

看起來 Epsilon 世代已經來臨了。

The rest is the year in front of us.

現在讓我再給大家另一個例子。

And guess what? The same Generation Y,

我現在正在和來自世界各地的人會面，

with their rules, with their tools, with their games,

他們是那些，你知道的，學術人士和教授

and with their language, which sounds a little bit strange to me.

還有醫生們，他們總是說各式各樣的環境限制

I'm 38 now.

他們會說 " 人民的力量只有在政權沒那麼嚴厲時才會發揮功效 "

And can you look at the age of the people on the streets of Europe?

他們會說 " 人民的力量只有在

It seems that Generation Y is coming.

國家的年收入在逆差的時候才會發生"

Now, let me set another example.

他們會說 " 人民的力量只有在有外國力量介入時才會出現 "

I'm meeting different people throughout the world,

他們會說 " 人民的力量只有在石油短缺時才有用 "

and they are, you know, academics, and professors, and doctors,

我的意思是，他們有一大堆的限制。

and they will always talk conditions.

我要給你們的消息是，你們在抗爭中的使用的技能

They will say: "People power will work only if the regime is not too oppressive."

似乎比這些限制條件更為重要，

They will say: "People power will work,

換句話說，技能像是團結、規劃

if the annual income of the country is between X and Z."

和維持非暴力的紀律。

They will say: "People power will work only if there is a foreign pressure."

讓我給你們一些範例。

They will say: "People power will work only if there is no oil."

我來自塞爾維亞。

And, I mean, there is a set of conditions.

在我們國家，我們花了 10 年的時間讓 18 個擁有各自雄心壯志的黨派領袖結合起來，

Well, the news here is that your skills during the conflict

讓他們同時站在同一個候選人的背後，

seem to be more important than the conditions.

來對抗巴爾幹的獨裁者 Slobodan Milosevic。

Namely, the skills of unity, planning, and maintaining nonviolent discipline.

接著呢? 那一天就是他被擊倒的日子。

Let me give you an example.

你們看看埃及人們，他們在解放廣場上放火，

I come from a country called Serbia.

他們擺脫個體的象徵

It took us 10 years to unite 18 opposition party leaders,

他們上街時只帶著埃及的國旗。

with their big egos, behind one single candidate

我在給你們一個相反的例子。

against the Balkan dictator Slobodan Milosevic.

在白俄羅斯，九個候選人同時去和 Lukashenko 做競爭。

Guess what? That was the day of his defeat.

結果你們應該猜到了。

You look at the Egyptians, they fight on Tahrir Square,

所以，團結是一件很重要的事，而且是一件可以達成的事。

they get rid of their individual symbols,

規劃也是一樣。有人對你撒謊說過關於

they appear on the street only with the flag of Egypt.

成功且自發的非暴力革命嗎?

I will give you a counter-example.

這種事壓根不存在這世上。

You see nine presidential candidates running against Lukashenko,

每當你看到有年輕人在隊伍最前面，

you all know the outcome.

試圖對軍警釋出善意，

So unity is a big thing.

這一定是有人深思熟慮所導致的行為。

And this can be achieved.

最後一個，非暴力的紀律，

Same with planning.

而這可能是改變整場遊戲的關鍵。

Somebody has lied to you

如果你能夠維持非暴力的紀律， 你就會獲得完全的勝利。

about the successful and spontaneous nonviolent revolution.

假熱你有十萬個人正在進行非暴力性的遊行

That thing doesn't exist in the world.

然後有個白癡或是敵方的臥底扔出了一個石頭，

Whenever you see young people in front of the row

猜猜看所有媒體的焦點會跑到哪? 就只會在那一個人身上。

trying to fraternize with the police or military,

一個小小的暴力行為

somebody was thinking about it before.

可以破壞掉一整個運動。

Now, at the end, nonviolent discipline.

現在把場景轉換一下。

And this is probably the game-changer.

這是戰術和戰略的抉擇。

If you maintain nonviolent discipline,

非暴力性的抗爭有既有的規則你應該去遵守。

you'll exclusively win.

首先，先從簡單的開手。

You have 100,000 people in a nonviolent march,

第二步，你挑選一個你可以贏的戰鬥。

one idiot or agent-provocateur throwing a stone.

我們在這個房間只有200人。

Guess what takes all the cameras.

我們不會號稱這是個百萬人的大遊行。

That one guy.

但如果我們有組織性的在夜晚去做街頭塗鴉

One single act of violence can literally destroy your movement.

而目標是整個 Krakow city (波蘭第二大城) 呢? 整個城市都會收到訊息。

Now, let me move to another place.

所以我們必須挑選適合這樣事件的戰略，

It's the selection of strategies and tactics.

特別是這種我們稱為分散兵力的小型戰略。

There are certain rules in nonviolent struggle you may follow.

它們在暴力鎮壓中非常有用。

First, you start small.

事實上我們正在目睹一個

Second, you pick the battles you can win.

有史以來最好的戰略之一。

It's only 200 of us in this room.

在埃及解放廣場上，國際性團體

We won't call for the march of a million.

一直都很害怕伊斯蘭會主導這場革命

But what if we organized the spraying of graffiti throughout the night,

事實上，它們組織了基督徒

all over Krakow.

去保護那些正在祈禱的穆斯林，

The city will know.

去保護那些正在為科普特婚禮歡呼的穆斯林。

So, we pick tactics accommodated to the event,

世界的樣貌正在改變，

especially this thing we call the small tactics of dispersion.

而這是因為有人在事前有縝密的規劃。

They're very useful in violent oppression.

所以，有很多的方法可以當作替代方案

We are actually witnessing the picture of one of the best tactics ever used.

讓你不用跑到某個地方，對著維安人員

It was on Tahrir square,

大吼或是做些引人注目的動作。

where the international community was constantly frightened

這裡還有另一種非常重要的動能，

that, you know, the Islamists will overtake the revolution.

而這種動能是一般的分析看不見的。

What they organized --

這是一個介於恐懼、冷漠

Christians protecting Muslims where they are praying,

和熱情、幽默之間的一種動能

a Coptic wedding cheered by thousands of Muslims,

他運作的方式和電玩遊戲很像。

the world has just changed the picture,

如果你的恐懼值較高的話， 你會維持現狀不動。

but somebody was thinking about this previously.

如果你的熱情值開始攀高， 你的恐懼會開始消散。

So there are so many things you can do

第二天，人群會開始向警察跑過去

instead of getting into one place,

而不是從警察那裏跑開。

shouting, and you know, showing off in front of the security forces.

在埃及，你可以看到有些事情正在發生中

Now, there is also another very important dynamic.

接下來是關於幽默。幽默是一個強大的關鍵

And this is a dynamic that analysts normally don't see.

它可以改變整個局勢， 當然它對於波蘭來說是非常的重要。

This is the dynamic between fear and apathy on the one side,

你們知道嗎，當我們做出這策劃時，

and enthusiasm and humor on another side.

我們只是在塞爾維亞的一小群瘋瘋癲癲的學生。

So, it works like in a video game.

我們在大型的汽油桶上面

You have the fear high, you have status quo.

放了總統先生的肖像，

You have the enthusiasm higher,

並且將它放在主要幹道的中央。 桶子的上面有一個洞，

you see the fear is starting to melt.

你可以把銅板丟進去，

Day two, you see people running towards the police

然後拿起球棒往他的臉尻下去，

instead of from the police, in Egypt.

然後發出巨大的聲響。當時我們坐在附近的咖啡廳，

You can tell that something is happening there.

喝著咖啡，並且在幾分鐘之內，

And then, it's about the humor.

聚集了一排的人等著要來試試這項運動。

Humor is such a powerful game-changer,

而這只是整場秀的開幕。

and of course, it was very big in Poland.

真正的好戲從警察的出現開始。

You know, we were just a small group of crazy students in Serbia

他們要怎麼做? 逮捕我們? 我們在他們看不見的地方。

when we made this big skit.

我們在三個街區之外的咖啡吧檯觀察著一切。

We put the big petrol barrel

逮捕那些帶著小孩的消費者? 這一點道理都沒有。

with a portrait of Mr. President on it, in the middle of the Main Street.

當然，你可以打賭他們會做出最笨的決定:

There was a hole in the top.

它們逮捕了汽油桶。而如今，

So you could literally come, put a coin in,

這個上面有個被打爛的臉的汽油桶

get a baseball bat, and hit his face.

被警察拖上警車。那一天

Sounds loud.

對報社的攝影師來說 是再也不會有更好的日子。

And within minutes,

所以我的意思是，這些是你可以做的事，

we were sitting in a nearby café having coffee,

而你永遠可以善用你的幽默。

and there was a queue of people waiting to do this lovely thing.

對幽默來說只有一件重要的事 : 它們的殺傷力真的很大，

Well, that's just the beginning of the show.

因為那些人總是把他們自己看得太重。

The real show starts when the police appears.

當你開始取笑他們時, 他們會因此受傷。

(Laughter)

現在每個人都在討論他們的神主牌，。網際網路。

"What will they do?"

這也是一項很有用個技能， 但不要急著把標籤貼上

Arrest us? We were nowhere to be seen.

像是Facebook 革命 , Twitter革命。

We were like three blocks away, observing it from our espresso bar.

不要把工具和實質意義作了混淆。

Arrest the shoppers, with kids?

實際上，網際網路和新興媒體真的非常有用，

Doesn't make sense.

它讓事情做起來更快更便宜。

Of course, you could bet, they did the most stupid thing.

它也讓那些參與者能夠更安全，

They arrested the barrel.

因為它們提供了隱匿性。

And now, the picture of the smashed face on the barrel,

我們正在看的是一個很棒的範例， 他展示出網路的另一項功能。

with the policemen dragging it to the police car,

他可以將那些因為被領公費的暴行者 弄受傷的非暴力抗爭者貼上標籤

that was the best day for newspaper photographers

這是一個很有名的團體, We are all Khaled Said (Khaled Said 是個被埃及警察赤手空拳打到死的年輕人)

that they will ever have.

是由Wael Ghonim和他的朋友在埃及組成的。

So, I mean, these are the things you can do.

這是那個被警察揍的年輕人分解的臉。

And you can always use humor.

這就是他如何變成公眾議題，

There is also one big thing about humor,

而這也可能是壓垮駱駝的最後一根稻草。

it really hurts.

但這同時也有壞消息。

Because these guys really are taking themselves too seriously.

非暴力型抗爭在現實世界中獲得了勝利，

When you start to mock them, it hurts.

就在外頭的街道上。但你絕不能夠改變你的社會

Now, everybody is talking about His Majesty, the Internet,

轉向民主或是改變經濟

and it is also a very useful skill.

假如你只是坐在電腦前面按讚而已。

But don't rush to label things like "a Facebook Revolution,"

有的風險是要去承擔，而在外頭有真正的活人

"Twitter Revolution."

他們正在贏得這場抗爭。

Don't mix the tools with the substance.

百萬獎金大猜謎 : 阿拉伯世界會發生什麼事呢?

It is true that the Internet and the new media are very useful

雖然阿拉伯世界的年輕人

in making things faster and cheaper.

很成功的把三位獨裁者拉下台了，

They also make it a bit safer for the participants,

撼動他們的政權，也因此動搖了

because they give partial anonymity.

識時務的約旦和摩洛哥國王做了實質性的政治重組，

We're watching the great example of something else the Internet can do.

但最後的結果還有待觀察，

It can put the price tag of state-sponsored violence

不論埃及人或突尼西亞人會咬牙度過轉換期，

over a nonviolent protester.

或是最後變成了血腥的種族和聰轎衝突，

This is the famous group "We are all Khaled Said,"

不論敘利亞人是否會維持非暴力的紀律，

made by Wael Ghonim in Egypt, and his friend.

當他們面對的是一天天殘酷的暴力，

This is the mutilated face of the guy who was beaten by the police.

而這已經讓他們造成了上千人的傷亡，

This is how he became known to the public,

或是他們會順勢的變成暴力抗爭

and this is what probably became the straw that broke the camel's back.

並因此引爆內戰。

But here is also the bad news.

這場革命在他轉向民主的路上

The nonviolent struggle is won in the real world, in the streets.

會保持他的完整性嗎?還是會被軍方

You will never change your society towards democracy,

或類似極端主義給奪走? 我們不知道。

or, you know, the economy, if you sit down and click.

同樣的事情在西方也在上演，你可以看到

There are risks to be taken,

這些興奮的年輕人在世界各處抗爭著，

and there are living people who are winning the struggle.

佔領這個，佔領那個。

Well, the million-dollar question.

他們會變成世界的潮流嗎?

What will happen in the Arab world?

他們會發現他們的技能、熱情

And though young people from the Arab world

和他們的策略來發現他們真正想要的

were pretty successful in bringing down three dictators,

並將他們推向重建的路上? 抑或是

shaking the region,

他們只會持續抱怨那些 他們厭惡且無止盡的事情?

kind of persuading the clever kings from Jordan and Morocco

這就是兩座城市之間有的差別。

to do substantial reforms,

現在，統計學家有個甚麼資訊?

it is yet to be seen what will be the outcome.

我一個朋友的書，Maria Stephan的書，

Whether the Egyptians and Tunisians will make it through the transition,

講述很多關於暴力和非暴力抗爭的事，

or this will end in bloody ethnic and religious conflicts,

而這裡有些令人震撼的資料。

whether the Syrians will maintain nonviolent discipline,

如果你回顧過去的35年，

faced with a brutal daily violence which kills thousands already,

從獨裁轉到民主的路上有不同的社會轉變

or they will slip into violent struggle

你會發現有67種不一樣的情形，

and make ugly civil war.

其中的50個是非暴力型的抗爭

Will these revolutions be pushed through the transitions and democracy

而這就是關鍵。

or be overtaken by the military or extremists of all kinds?

這是另一個去關注這個現象的理由。

We cannot tell.

這是另一個去關注Epsilon世代的理由，

The same works for the Western sector,

我已經給他們足夠信譽和希望了

where you can see all these excited young people

他們會發現他們的技能和勇氣，

protesting around the world, occupying this, occupying that.

應用在非暴力性抗爭上，

Are they going to become the world wave?

並最少能因此修正一些

Are they going to find their skills, their enthusiasm, and their strategy