where the power dynamics between men and women

我們正在經歷驚人且前所未有的時刻

are shifting very rapidly,

此時男人和女人之間的權力，

and in many of the places where it counts the most,

正迅速的移轉。

women are, in fact, taking control of everything.

在許多重量級的領域，

In my mother's day, she didn't go to college.

女人正在掌管一切。

Not a lot of women did.

在我母親那個時代，她沒有上大學，

And now, for every two men who get a college degree,

大部分的女人都沒有。

three women will do the same.

而如今，每兩個男性得到大學學位的同時，

Women, for the first time this year,

就有三個女人亦達到相同成就。

became the majority of the American workforce.

在今年女性首度

And they're starting to dominate lots of professions --

成為美國勞動力的多數人口，

doctors, lawyers,

且她們開始在許多職業中佔重要地位—

bankers, accountants.

醫生、律師、

Over 50 percent of managers are women these days,

銀行家、會計師...

and in the 15 professions

現今有超過半數的經理人皆為女性，

projected to grow the most in the next decade,

預計在未來十年

all but two of them are dominated by women.

會大幅成長的十五種職業領域中，

So the global economy is becoming a place

有十三種會被女性所主宰。

where women are more successful than men,

故可知女性在全球經濟場域中，

believe it or not,

表現已逐漸比男性突出，

and these economic changes

信不信由你。

are starting to rapidly affect our culture --

這些在經濟上的改變

what our romantic comedies look like,

正開始迅速的影響我們的文化—

what our marriages look like,

我們的浪漫喜劇、

what our dating lives look like,

我們的婚姻形式、

and our new set of superheroes.

我們的男女交往方式、

For a long time, this is the image of American manhood that dominated --

以及我們對超級英雄的新詮釋。

tough, rugged,

長久以來，這就是美國男子氣概的形象：

in control of his own environment.

剛硬、粗曠、

A few years ago, the Marlboro Man was retired

掌控著自己的領域。

and replaced by this

萬保龍先生在幾年前已退休了（譯註：萬寶龍曾在廣告中以牛仔強調自家商品的男子氣概）

much less impressive specimen,

取而代之的是這個—

who is a parody of American manhood,

不那麼令人印象深刻的典型—

and that's what we have in our commercials today.

美國男子氣概的搞怪版，

The phrase "first-born son"

這就是我們現在的廣告。

is so deeply ingrained in our consciousness

「長子」這個字眼

that this statistic alone shocked me.

在我們的腦中是如此根深蒂固，

In American fertility clinics,

以致於單單是這個數據就使我震驚：

75 percent of couples

在美國人工生育診所，

are requesting girls and not boys.

有四分之三的夫妻

And in places where you wouldn't think,

要求女孩而非男孩；

such as South Korea, India and China,

並且在你絕對想像不到的地方，

the very strict patriarchal societies

像是南韓、印度、和中國，

are starting to break down a little,

這些嚴格的父系家族長制社會，

and families are no longer

正在鬆動，

strongly preferring first-born sons.

且這些家庭

If you think about this, if you just open your eyes to this possibility

不再對長子有著強烈偏愛。

and start to connect the dots,

如果你去思考這件事、如果你張開眼睛看看這個可能性，

you can see the evidence everywhere.

並開始連接這些點，

You can see it in college graduation patterns,

你可以發現證據無所不在，

in job projections,

在大學的畢業情形、

in our marriage statistics,

在工作預估、

you can see it in the Icelandic elections, which you'll hear about later,

在我們的婚姻統計數據上。

and you can see it on South Korean surveys on son preference,

你可以在冰島的選舉中看見，等一下你將會聽到，

that something amazing and unprecedented

你也可以在南韓關於對兒子的偏愛的研究上看到，

is happening with women.

一些驚人且空前的事情

Certainly this is not the first time that we've had great progress with women.

發生在女性身上。

The '20s and the '60s also come to mind.

當然這不是女性的第一次重大進展，

But the difference is that, back then,

1920年代和1960年代也是，

it was driven by a very passionate feminist movement

但不同之處在於，那個時候，

that was trying to project its own desires,

是由試著要實現自身欲望的、

whereas this time, it's not about passion,

熱血的女權運動所推動；

and it's not about any kind of movement.

反之，這次，無關乎激情、

This is really just about the facts

也無關乎任何類型的運動，

of this economic moment that we live in.

這完全只繫於，

The 200,000-year period

我們所處的經濟時代的現實。

in which men have been top dog

二十萬年來

is truly coming to an end, believe it or not,

男性當道的時期，

and that's why I talk about the "end of men."

已經走到了盡頭，信不信由你，

Now all you men out there,

那就是我為何我說這是男性的終點。

this is not the moment where you tune out or throw some tomatoes,

在座的各位男性，

because the point is that this

現在不是裝作沒看到或丟番茄的時候，（譯註：在西方，丟蕃茄有時是表達不滿之意）

is happening to all of us.

因為重點是，

I myself have a husband and a father

這正發生在我們所有人身上。

and two sons whom I dearly love.

我本人有丈夫和父親、

And this is why I like to talk about this,

還有兩個我深愛的兒子

because if we don't acknowledge it,

這就是為何我想談論這件事，

then the transition will be pretty painful.

因為如果我們不承認之，

But if we do take account of it,

則過渡期會很痛苦；

then I think it will go much more smoothly.

但若我們有考慮過，

I first started thinking about this about a year and a half ago.

則我認為會進行的更加順利。

I was reading headlines about the recession just like anyone else,

我開始思考這件事是在一年半前，

and I started to notice a distinct pattern --

我那時正在和其他人一樣，閱讀關於經濟衰退的頭條新聞，

that the recession was affecting men

然後我開始注意到一個明顯的狀況—

much more deeply than it was affecting women.

那就是經濟不景氣對男性的影響

And I remembered back to about 10 years ago

遠大於對女性的影響。

when I read a book by Susan Faludi

我記得約十年前，

called "Stiffed: The Betrayal of the American Man,"

當我正閱讀Susan Faludi所著的

in which she described how hard the recession had hit men,

《僵局：美國男性的背叛》一書時，

and I started to think about

她在書中描述不景氣是如何嚴重打擊了男性，

whether it had gotten worse this time around in this recession.

我開始思考

And I realized that two things were different this time around.

是不是這次的不景氣更嚴重呢？

The first was that

然後我意識到這次有兩件事不同：

these were no longer just temporary hits

首先，

that the recession was giving men --

這些不再只是不景氣對男性

that this was reflecting a deeper

暫時的衝擊；

underlying shift in our global economy.

這反映出全球經濟

And second, that the story was no longer

一個更深層的轉變。

just about the crisis of men,

第二，這不再只關係到

but it was also about what was happening to women.

男性的危機，

And now look at this second set of slides.

也關係到女性。

These are headlines about what's been going on with women in the next few years.

現在，來看看第二組投影片：

These are things we never could have imagined a few years ago.

這是幾則關於未來幾年將發生關於女性的頭條新聞

Women, a majority of the workplace.

這是我們過去幾年完全無法想像的事情—

And labor statistics: women take up most managerial jobs.

女性，職場上的主體。

This second set of headlines --

勞動力統計數據：女性佔管理職務的大半。

you can see that families and marriages are starting to shift.

第二組頭條：

And look at that last headline --

你可以看到家庭和婚姻開始轉變。

young women earning more than young men.

再來看最後一則頭條：

That particular headline comes to me from a market research firm.

年輕女性賺得比男性更多。

They were basically asked by one of their clients

我從一個市調問卷發現這則特別的頭條，

who was going to buy houses in that neighborhood in the future.

他們被他們的一個客戶詢問：

And they expected that it would be young families,

未來誰會在該社區購買房屋？

or young men, just like it had always been.

他們原以為答案會是年輕小家庭

But in fact, they found something very surprising.

或年輕男性，一如以往。

It was young, single women

但事實上，他們很驚訝的發現，

who were the major purchasers of houses in the neighborhood.

答案是—年輕單身的女性

And so they decided, because they were intrigued by this finding,

才是該社區中主要的房屋購買者。

to do a nationwide survey.

因為這項發現激起他們的好奇，

So they spread out all the census data,

他們決定要做一個全國性的調查，

and what they found, the guy described to me as a shocker,

故他們分析了所有統計資料，

which is that in 1,997

然後他們發現了，那人很驚訝的向我敘述，

out of 2,000 communities,

就是—在1997年，

women, young women,

在2000個社區裡面，

were making more money than young men.

女性，年輕的女性，

So here you have a generation of young women

賺的錢比年輕男性更多。

who grow up thinking of themselves

在這個世代，

as being more powerful earners

年輕女性成長在

than the young men around them.

覺得自己可以比週遭年輕男性

Now, I've just laid out the picture for you,

更會賺錢的認知中。

but I still haven't explained to you why this is happening.

我已向你們提出這些景況，

And in a moment, I'm going to show you a graph,

我仍未解釋為何會發生，

and what you'll see on this graph --

等一下我要給各位看一張圖表，

it begins in 1973,

你會在這張圖上看到，

just before women start flooding the workforce,

從1973年開始，

and it brings us up to our current day.

在女性開始大量湧入勞動力市場之前，

And basically what you'll see

然後變到這樣。

is what economists talk about

基本上你會看到的是

as the polarization of the economy.

經濟學家所說的

Now what does that mean?

經濟結構的分化。

It means that the economy is dividing into high-skill, high-wage jobs

這意謂著什麼？

and low-skill, low-wage jobs --

這表示經濟結構現在漸分裂成高技術高薪資工作

and that the middle, the middle-skill jobs,

和低技術低薪資工作，

and the middle-earning jobs, are starting to drop out of the economy.

而在中間的，中等技術

This has been going on for 40 years now.

和中等報酬的工作已開始在經濟結構中被淘汰。

But this process is affecting men

這已經進行了40年，

very differently than it's affecting women.

但這個過程對男人的影響

You'll see the women in red, and you'll see the men in blue.

和對女人的影響相當不同。

You'll watch them both drop out of the middle class,

從下張圖你可以看到紅色代表女性，藍色代表男性，

but see what happens to women and see what happens to men.

你可以看到他們都脫離了中產階級，

There we go.

但請看看在女性部份和男性部份分別發生什麼變化。

So watch that. You see them both drop out of the middle class.

就是這樣，

Watch what happens to the women. Watch what happens to the men.

請看，你看他們都脫離中產階級，

The men sort of stagnate there,

看看女性發生什麼變化?男性又發生什麼變化?

while the women zoom up in those high-skill jobs.

男性部份有點停滯不前，

So what's that about?

然而女性卻在那些高技術性的工作急速上升。

It looks like women got some power boost on a video game,

這表示什麼?

or like they snuck in some secret serum into their birth-control pills

好像是女性在電玩中得到加強功力，

that lets them shoot up high.

或悄悄在避孕藥裡得到神奇的漿液，

But of course, it's not about that.

使她們步步高升，

What it's about is that the economy has changed a lot.

當然不是這樣的。

We used to have a manufacturing economy,

這代表的是經濟結構有很大的改變：

which was about building goods and products,

我們過去擁有的是工業的經濟，

and now we have a service economy

也就是製造出產品；

and an information and creative economy.

現在是服務業的經濟，

Those two economies require very different skills,

是資訊及創意的經濟。

and as it happens, women have been much better

這兩種經濟型態需要的是很不同的技能，

at acquiring the new set of skills than men have been.

當這一切發生，

It used to be that you were

女性在取得新技能方面較男性擅長。

a guy who went to high school

在以前，

who didn't have a college degree,

如果你上過高中、

but you had a specific set of skills,

沒有大學學歷、

and with the help of a union,

但擁有一技之長，

you could make yourself a pretty good middle-class life.

藉由工會的幫助

But that really isn't true anymore.

你可以讓你自己過著優渥的小康生活。

This new economy is pretty indifferent

這一套已經行不通了。

to size and strength,

這個新經濟型態對於

which is what's helped men along all these years.

多年來幫助著男性的

What the economy requires now

個頭和身高完全不感興趣，

is a whole different set of skills.

現在這個經濟型態所需要的，

You basically need intelligence,

是完全不同的技能，

you need an ability to sit still and focus,

基本上你需要智慧、

to communicate openly,

你需要安坐和聚焦的能力、

to be able to listen to people

開放的溝通、

and to operate in a workplace that is much more fluid than it used to be,

能夠傾聽人們說話、

and those are things that women do extremely well,

在比從前更加變動不居的工作環境中工作。

as we're seeing.

這些都是女性做的非常好的事情，

If you look at management theory these days,

如同我們所見。

it used to be that our ideal leader

如果你看看近來的管理理論，

sounded something like General Patton, right?

以前像是鐵血將軍巴頓這樣的類型

You would be issuing orders from above.

可說是理想的領袖，對吧？

You would be very hierarchical.

你可以高高在上發號施令、

You would tell everyone below you what to do.

你可以很有權威、

But that's not what an ideal leader is like now.

你可以叫所有底下的人做事。

If you read management books now,

但現在理想的領袖不是那樣子，

a leader is somebody who can foster creativity,

現在如果你去讀經營管理的書，

who can get his -- get the employees -- see, I still say "his" --

領導人是能夠激發創造力、

who can get the employees to talk to each other,

能夠使他的—使員工—瞧，我依然說「他的」，

who can basically build teams and get them to be creative.

能夠使員工彼此溝通的人，

And those are all things that women do very well.

是能夠建立團隊並使其具有創造力的人，

And then on top of that, that's created a kind of cascading effect.

以上都是女性做的非常好的事項。

Women enter the workplace at the top,

在加上，女性創造了一種串接效應：

and then at the working class,

女性進入職場的頂端，

all the new jobs that are created

然後在一般勞動階級，

are the kinds of jobs that wives used to do for free at home.

所有新創造出來的工作機會，

So that's childcare,

是那些曾經由家庭主婦們免費做的事，

elder care and food preparation.

就是帶小孩、

So those are all the jobs that are growing,

照顧老人和準備三餐。

and those are jobs that women tend to do.

這些工作正在增加，

Now one day it might be

女人也樂意去從事這種工作，

that mothers will hire an out-of-work,

可能有一天，

middle-aged, former steelworker guy

媽媽們會僱用一個失業的、

to watch their children at home,

中年的前任打鐵工

and that would be good for the men, but that hasn't quite happened yet.

來家裡幫她們帶小孩，

To see what's going to happen, you can't just look at the workforce that is now,

這對男人來說也是好事一樁，但目前還沒發生。

you have to look at our future workforce.

要明白未來會發生什麼事，你不能只著眼於現在的勞動力情勢，

And here the story is fairly simple.

你必須觀察未來的勞動力。

Women are getting college degrees

這相當的單純，

at a faster rate than men.

獲得大學文憑的女性比例

Why? This is a real mystery.

比男性快速增長。

People have asked men, why don't they just go back to college,

為什麼？這是一個謎，

to community college, say, and retool themselves,

人們問男性，為何他們不回去大學、

learn a new set of skills?

回到社區大學再充實自己、

Well it turns out that they're just very uncomfortable doing that.

學習新技能？

They're used to thinking of themselves as providers,

事實上是，他們對於做這件事感到很不自在，

and they can't seem to build the social networks

他們習慣於認為自己是養家活口的人，

that allow them to get through college.

而且他們似乎無法建立起

So for some reason

使他們可以撐過大學的新社群網絡，

men just don't end up going back to college.

故基於一些理由

And what's even more disturbing

男性終是無法回去唸大學。

is what's happening with younger boys.

而更加令人不安的

There's been about a decade of research

是發生在年輕男孩身上的事。

about what people are calling the "boy crisis."

有一個已持續約莫十年的研究，

Now the boy crisis is this idea

是關於人們所稱的「男孩危機」，

that very young boys, for whatever reason,