about the future,

人類文化裡，有許多

and where we might move forward from this point.

關於未來的故事

Some of those stories are that

這些故事激勵我們前進

somebody is just going to sort everything out for us.

在某些故事中

Other stories are that everything is on the verge of unraveling.

有人努力採取對策

But I want to tell you a different story here today.

在另一些故事中，所有事物都瀕臨瓦解

Like all stories, it has a beginning.

但我今天要帶來一個不同的故事

My work, for a long time, has been involved in education,

如同所有故事，它也有起始

in teaching people practical skills

長期以來，我涉入教育事業甚深

for sustainability,

我教人們

teaching people how to take responsibility

永續性的實用技能

for growing some of their own food,

教大家如何承擔責任

how to build buildings using local materials,

比如，自己耕種、

how to generate their own energy, and so on.

用在地的材料蓋房子、

I lived in Ireland, built the first straw-bale houses in Ireland,

使用自發的電力......等等

and some cob buildings and all this kind of thing.

我住在愛爾蘭，在那裡造了第一座稻草屋，

But all my work for many years was focused

和一些圓形建築與其他類似的事

around the idea that sustainability

很多年來，在我的工作中，我都關注於

means basically looking at

一個想法: 永續性

the globalized economic growth model,

它意謂著: 著眼於

and moderating what comes in at one end,

全球經濟成長模型、

and moderating the outputs at the other end.

監控其所投入的，

And then I came into contact with a way of looking at things

也調節著另一端產出

which actually changed that profoundly.

接著，我開始觀察

And in order to introduce you to that,

那些根深蒂固的巨大轉變

I've got something here that I'm going to unveil,

為了向大家清楚介紹

which is one of the great marvels of the modern age.

在這裏，我打算向各位展示

And it's something so astounding and so astonishing

一個現代的偉大奇蹟

that I think maybe as I remove this cloth

它是如此驚天動地

a suitable gasp of amazement might be appropriate.

所以我不如先揭開它的真面目

If you could help me with that it would be fantastic.

讓大家喘口氣，再來述說比較合適

(Laughter)

如果你們能幫我一下，那就再好不過了

This is a liter of oil.

（笑聲）

This bottle of oil,

這是一公升的石油

distilled over a hundred million years of geological time,

這瓶油

ancient sunlight,

是從上億年前的地質中所提煉而出

contains the energy equivalent of about five weeks

經過遠古的陽光照射

hard human manual labor --

它飽含的能量相當於5星期的

equivalent to about 35 strong people

人類體力勞動——

coming round and working for you.

相當於三十五個壯漢

We can turn it into a dazzling array of materials,

為您服務

medicine, modern clothing,

我們可以把它轉變為各式各樣令人炫目的材料:

laptops, a whole range of different things.

藥物、現代服飾、

It gives us an energy return that's unimaginable, historically.

筆記型電腦、還有其他不同的材料等等

We've based the design of our settlements,

它給予我們歷史上難以想像的巨大能源收益:

our business models, our transport plans,

我們賴以為生的生計、

even the idea of economic growth, some would argue,

經濟學模型、運輸計畫、

on the assumption that we will have this in perpetuity.

甚至經濟成長的觀點，都以它為基礎而設計，有些人

Yet, when we take a step back,

認定我們可以永久地使用石油

and look over the span of history,

然而，倘若我們退一步

at what we might call the petroleum interval,

審視整個人類的歷史

it's a short period in history

我們所謂的石油時代

where we've discovered this extraordinary material,

從我們發現這個無與倫比的材料，

and then based a whole way of life around it.

到完全依賴石油之間的這個短暫時期

But as we straddle the top of this energy mountain, at this stage,

不過是歷史中的一瞬罷了

we move from a time where our economic success,

但，當我們處在現階段能源的頂峰時，

our sense of individual prowess and well-being

我們已脫離了以往那個時期:

is directly linked to how much of this we consume,

經濟效益、個人能力和福利

to a time when actually our degree of oil dependency

必須直接取決於我們對能源的消耗；

is our degree of vulnerability.

而現在，我們來到了一個高度依賴石油的時期

And it's increasingly clear that we

這正是我們的弱點

aren't going to be able to rely on the fact that

有一個日益明白的道理:

we're going to have this at our disposal forever.

我們將無法再以

For every four barrels of oil that we consume,

這樣的方式處置能源了

we only discover one.

我們每消耗4桶石油，

And that gap continues to widen.

卻只能發現1桶。

There is also the fact that the amount of energy

這個鴻溝持續不斷地擴大

that we get back from the oil that we discover is falling.

同時，我們從石油中所發掘出的能源

In the 1930s we got 100 units of energy back

正在減少

for every one that we put in to extract it.

1930年代，我們每個人可以從提煉石油中

Completely unprecedented, historically.

得到100單位的能源

Already that's fallen to about 11.

這個數據在歷史上前所未見

And that's why, now,

現在，能源利用值已跌到11

the new breakthroughs, the new frontiers

這就是為什麼，現在

in terms of oil extraction are scrambling about in Alberta,

石油萃取的新技術

or at the bottom of the oceans.

爭奪得如此激烈的原因，不管是在Alberta

There are 98 oil-producing nations in the world.

還是在海底

But of those, 65 have already passed their peak.

世界上有98個產油國

The moment when the world on average passes this peak,

但，其中65個已經超過了開採的高峰

people wonder when that's going to happen.

世界平均開採早晚都會超過這個峰值

And there is an emerging case

人們只想知道什麼時候發生

that maybe that was what happened last July

一個新近的例子是

when the oil prices were so high.

大約在去年7月所發生的

But are we to assume that the same brilliance

油價上漲

and creativity and adaptability

然而，人類的智慧、

that got us up to the top of that energy mountain in the first place

創造力、與適應力

is somehow mysteriously going to evaporate

曾使我們第一次達到了能源高峰，

when we have to design a creative way back down the other side?

當我們必須設計一個新的解決方案，讓自己越過低谷時

No. But the thinking that we have to come up with

這種智慧、創造力、和適應力為何莫名其妙地神秘蒸發了呢？

has to be based on a realistic assessment

不，這想法並不正確。

of where we are.

這是基於一個現實的假設，

There is also the issue of climate change,

我們已經達到了開採巔峰

is the other thing that underpins this transition approach.

面對氣候變化時，

But the thing that I notice, as I talk to climate scientists,

也同樣支持了這種轉變方法。

is the increasingly terrified look they have in their eyes,

當我和氣候學家討論時，我注意到

as the data that's coming in,

他們眼裏與日俱增的恐懼，

which is far ahead of what the IPCC are talking about.

它是伴隨著近日比 IPCC（聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會）

So the IPCC said

更有說服力更新資料而出現的

that we might see significant breakup

IPCC 的提到:

of the arctic ice in 2100, in their worst case scenario.

我們可以預見2100年

Actually, if current trends continue,

在最壞的情況下，北極冰川嚴重斷裂。

it could all be gone in five or 10 years' time.

事實上，如果目前的趨勢持續惡化，

If just three percent of the carbon locked up in the arctic permafrost

它將在五年或十年內發生。

is released as the world warms,

如果北極永凍土中所包含的 3% 的二氧化碳

it would offset all the savings that we need to make,

在全球暖化中釋放，

in carbon, over the next 40 years to avoid runaway climate change.

它將抵消我們為減少二氧化碳所做的一切努力，

We have no choice other than deep and urgent decarbonization.

在未來的四十年間，將難以防範無常的氣候變化

But I'm always very interested to think about

除了更進一步實施緊急二氧化碳減排，我們沒有其他選擇

what might the stories be

但我一直好奇地想著

that the generations further down the slope from us

也許故事是這樣的:

are going to tell about us.

下幾個世代的人們

"The generation that lived at the top of the mountain,

將會告訴我們

that partied so hard, and so abused its inheritance."

「我們這一世代，生活在山頂，

And one of the ways I like to do that

忍受艱難，亦所剩無幾。」

is to look back at the stories people used to tell

我喜歡的方法之一是

before we had cheap oil, before we had fossil fuels,

回首往事時，人們通常這麼說:

and people relied on their own muscle, animal muscle energy,

在我們擁有便宜的汽油和化石燃料之前，

or a little bit of wind, little bit of water energy.

人們依賴於他們的肌肉、動物肌肉中的能量、

We had stories like "The Seven-League Boots":

或者一些風能水力

the giant who had these boots, where, once you put them on,

我們有像「七大靴子」的童話故事:

with every stride you could cover seven leagues, or 21 miles,

一旦巨人穿上這樣的靴子，

a kind of travel completely unimaginable

每邁出一步，可以完 21 英里，

to people without that kind of energy at their disposal.

對於沒有這種功能靴子的人們來說，

Stories like The Magic Porridge Pot,

這是一種完全無法想像的旅程

where you had a pot where if you knew the magic words,

還有像「神奇魔術鍋」的故事，

this pot would just make as much food as you liked,

如果你知道術語，你可以讓一個魔術鍋

without you having to do any work,

不斷地做出你想要的食物，

provided you could remember the other magic word to stop it making porridge.

當然你什麽也無需做

Otherwise you'd flood your entire town with warm porridge.

假如你記得其他術語，就可以停止做燕麥粥

There is the story of "The Elves and the Shoemaker."

否則，整個城市將被溫燕麥粥淹沒

The people who make shoes go to sleep, wake up in the morning,

還有一個「鞋匠和小矮人」的故事

and all the shoes are magically made for them.

鞋匠晚上沒做完鞋就睡著了，當他早上睡醒的時候，

It's something that was unimaginable to people then.

卻發現所有的鞋子都神奇地做好了

Now we have the seven-league boots

對人類來說，這真是不可思議

in the form of Ryanair and Easyjet.

現在，我們有 Ryanair 和 Easyjet 飛機形式的

We have the magic porridge pot

七大靴子

in the form of Walmart and Tesco.

也有類似神奇魔術鍋的

And we have the elves in the form of China.

Walmart 和 Tesco 等大型超市

But we don't appreciate what an astonishing

還有好比小矮人一樣的中國

thing that has been.

但是我們並不特別感謝

And what are the stories that we tell ourselves now,

這些令人驚愕的正發生的事情

as we look forward about where we're going to go.

現在我們要講的

And I would argue that there are four. There is the idea of business as usual,

是我們所期盼的的關於前途的問題

that the future will be like the present, just more of it.

我認為有四個方向，通常的商業想法是

But as we've seen over the last year, I think that's an idea

未來僅只是現在的延續，甚至是更好

that is increasingly coming into question.

然而回顧去年，我認為那個想法

And in terms of climate change,

已逐漸成為問題

is something that is not actually feasible.

從氣候變遷上看來，

There is the idea of hitting the wall,

事實上，這想法行不通

that actually somehow everything is so fragile

還有一個碰壁的想法是

that it might just all unravel and collapse.

所有東西都變得很脆弱，

This is a popular story in some places.

即將瓦解，全部崩潰

The third story is the idea that technology can solve everything,

在某些地方，這是一種流行的故事

that technology can somehow get us through this completely.

第三種想法是: 科技可以解決所有問題

And it's an idea that I think is very prevalent at these TED Talks,

科技可以帶領我們完全客服困難

the idea that we can invent our way out of a profound

我認為，這種觀點在 TED 討論者當中非常普遍，

economic and energy crisis,

我們發明一種方法，走出嚴峻的

that a move to a knowledge economy

經濟與能源危機，

can somehow neatly sidestep those energy constraints,

這種知識經濟的運動可以

the idea that we'll discover some fabulous new source of energy

遠離能源的桎梏與瓶頸，

that will mean we can sweep all concerns

發現一些極好的新能源，

about energy security to one side,

使我們可以把

the idea that we can step off neatly

能源安全的問題擱置一邊，

onto a completely renewable world.

於是輕鬆地邁入

But the world isn't Second Life.

一個全新的可再生能源世界

We can't create new land and new energy systems at the click of a mouse.

然而，世界並非「第二人生」（遊戲: Second Life）

And as we sit, exchanging free ideas with each other,

我們不能單單地憑藉點擊滑鼠，創造出新大陸和新的能源體系

there are still people mining coal

當我們坐在這裏，彼此自由交換點子的時候，

in order to power the servers, extracting the minerals

仍然有人在挖煤，

to make all of those things.

爲了提供能量，

The breakfast that we eat as we sit down

使之運轉

to check our email in the morning

當我們早上坐下來

is still transported at great distances,

查閱郵件的時候，

usually at the expense of the local, more resilient

早餐仍然是從從很遠的地方運來，

food systems that would have supplied that in the past,

通常，取自當地、更具恢復性的食物系統

which we've so effectively devalued and dismantled.

長久以來便存在

We can be astonishingly inventive and creative.

我們卻大大地低估它，甚至讓它們消失

But we also live in a world with very real constraints and demands.

我們極具創意與發明性

Energy and technology are not the same thing.

然而在現實約束的世界中

What I'm involved with is the transition response.

能源和科技不是同一件事

And this is really about looking the challenges

於是，我參與了回應轉變的積極措施。

of peak oil and climate change square in the face,

這是當前關於

and responding with a creativity and an adaptability

石油開採高峰和氣候變化的巨大挑戰，

and an imagination that we really need.

以創造性、適應性、

It's something which has spread incredibly fast.

和我們急需的想像力來回應

And it is something which has several characteristics.

這個轉變以驚人的速度散播

It's viral. It seems to spread under the radar very, very quickly.

它有多種特徵，

It's open source. It's something which everybody who's involved with it

像病毒一樣，猶如在雷達偵測下飛快傳播著

develops and passes on as they work with it.

它是開放的，每個從事這個工作的人

It's self-organizing. There is no great central organization

開發、並且把知識分享給他人

that pushes this; people just pick up an idea

自我組織，沒有龐大的中央機構

and they run with it, and they implement it where they are.

來推動，人們一有想法

It's solutions-focused. It's very much looking at what people can do

就實地運作，貫徹執行

where they are, to respond to this.

它是問題解決取向的，在很大的程度上，端看人們

It's sensitive to place and to scale.

如何設身處地行事，進行回應

Transitional is completely different.

根據不同的地方、規模，會不同的因應措施

Transition groups in Chile, transition groups in the U.S., transition groups here,

轉變方式也完全不同

what they're doing looks very different in every place that you go to.

無論是智利的轉變小組、美國的轉變小組，還是這裏的轉變小組，

It learns very much from its mistakes.

每個地方看法都不一樣

And it feels historic. It tries to create a sense

從錯誤中，你可以學習到很多

that this is a historic opportunity

這個轉變極具歷史意義。它創造了一種

to do something really extraordinary.

歷史機會

And it's a process which is really joyful.

讓人們從事非凡的事業

People have a huge amount of fun doing this,

在此過程中，的確充滿樂趣

reconnecting with other people as they do it.

在做這件事時，人們感到充滿喜悅

One of the things that underpins it is this idea of resilience.

許多人也彼此串聯

And I think, in many ways, the idea of resilience

支持上述的其中一個觀點是所謂的彈性思維

is a more useful concept than the idea of sustainability.

我認為，在許多方面，這種彈性思維

The idea of resilience comes from the study of ecology.

比永續續理論更有效

And it's really about how systems,

彈性思維源自於生態學

settlements, withstand shock from the outside.

它與系統、

When they encounter shock from the outside

定居、與如何抵擋外部衝擊等息息相關

that they don't just unravel and fall to pieces.

當它們遇到外部衝擊時，

And I think it's a more useful concept than sustainability, as I said.

它們不只分解或崩潰而已

When our supermarkets have only two or three days' worth of food in them

我認為彈性思維比永續的觀點更有用，正如我所說的

at any one time, often sustainability tends to focus on

在任何時候，當超市只有2、3天的食物存貨時，

the energy efficiency of the freezers

通常永續理論關注於

and on the packaging that the lettuces are wrapped up in.

冰箱的功效、

Looking through the lens of resilience,

和生菜的包裝

we really question how we've let ourselves get into a situation

從彈性思維的角度來看，

that's so vulnerable.

我們會質疑 自己竟依賴於這種

Resilience runs much deeper:

如此脆弱的超市消費模式

it's about building modularity into what we do,

彈性可以更廣泛地運作:

building surge breakers into how we organize the basic things that support us.

它從我們所做的事中建立模型

This is a photograph of the Bristol and District

我們應該如何自行組織、建立生產自給自足必需品的社區

Market Gardeners Association, in 1897.

這是布里斯托 (Bristol) 和湖區的照片，