Does your mindset correspond to my dataset?

我今天要來談談你的心智

(Laughter)

你的心智是否與我的資料相符？

If not, one or the other needs upgrading, isn't it?

(笑)

When I talk to my students about global issues,

若不相符，其中一個需要做更新，對不對？

and I listen to them in the coffee break,

當我跟我的學生談到全球議題時，

they always talk about "we" and "them."

在休息時間時，我總聽到他們説，

And when they come back into the lecture room

説〞我們〞和〞他們〞。

I ask them, "What do you mean with "we" and "them"?

等他們回到教室的時候，

"Oh, it's very easy. It's the western world and it's the developing world," they say.

我問〞你們口中的「我們」和「他們」是什麼意思？〞

"We learned it in college."

〞喔，很簡單啊，就是西方（已開發）世界和開發中的世界〞，他們説。

And what is the definition then? "The definition?

“我們在大學時所學的”

Everyone knows," they say.

那是什麼意思？定義是什麼？

But then you know, I press them like this.

他們回答說：這是常識。

So one girl said, very cleverly, "It's very easy.

接著，我繼續逼問他們

Western world is a long life in a small family.

於是一個很聰明的女孩答説，“這很簡單”

Developing world is a short life in a large family."

西方世界泛指長壽、小家庭的國家。

And I like that definition, because it enabled me

而開發中世界是平均壽命短，大家庭的國家。

to transfer their mindset

我喜歡這個定義，因為這讓我

into the dataset.

可以將他們的心智轉換

And here you have the dataset.

成資料

So, you can see that what we have on this axis here

於是這裡我們得到這個資料結果

is size of family. One, two, three, four, five

大家可以看到我們在這個軸上：

children per woman on this axis.

是家庭的大小：一，二，三，四，五

And here, length of life, life expectancy,

個小孩/每個女人為單位在這個軸上。

30, 40, 50.

然後這裡，平均壽命的長度

Exactly what the students said was their concept about the world.

三十，四十，五十。

And really this is about the bedroom.

正是學生們對這個世界的概念。

Whether the man and woman decide to have small family,

而這正與臥房有關

and take care of their kids, and how long they will live.

當男人和女人決定建立一個小家庭

It's about the bathroom and the kitchen. If you have soap, water and food, you know,

然後撫育他們的小孩，以及他們會活多久。

you can live long.

這和浴室與廚房有關。也就是說，如果你有肥皂，水和食物

And the students were right. It wasn't that the world consisted --

你就可以活得久。

the world consisted here, of one set of countries over here,

所以這些學生是對的。不過這不是世界組成的方式

which had large families and short life. Developing world.

世界在這些地方組成：在這裡的一大群國家

And we had one set of countries up there

這些家庭大，平均壽命短的開發中世界。

which was the western world.

然後在上面一點這裡我們有另一群國家

They had small families and long life.

就是西方世界。

And you are going to see here

他們家庭小，平均壽命長。

the amazing thing that has happened in the world during my lifetime.

然後你在這裡將看到

Then the developing countries applied

在我一生中世界所發生最驚人的事。

soap and water, vaccination.

自此這些開發中國家使用

And all the developing world started to apply family planning.

肥皂、水，疫苗

And partly to USA who help to provide

所有開發中國家開始採行家庭計劃。

technical advice and investment.

一部份是美國幫忙提供

And you see all the world moves over to a two child family,

技術諮詢與投資

and a life with 60 to 70 years.

你看到全部的世界移向兩個小孩的家庭

But some countries remain back in this area here.

平均壽命約60到70歲

And you can see we still have Afghanistan down here.

但有一些國家仍停留在後面這個區域

We have Liberia. We have Congo.

大家可以看到阿富汗仍然在下面這區

So we have countries living there.

利比亞、剛果

So the problem I had

仍然有國家在這些區域

is that the worldview that my students had

所以我發現到問題就是

corresponds to reality in the world

這些學生們所具有的世界觀

the year their teachers were born.

對應真實的世界

(Laughter)

停留在他們老師出生的這一年。

(Applause)

笑

And we, in fact, when we have played this over the world.

鼓掌

I was at the Global Health Conference here in Washington last week,

所以我們事實上在玩弄這個過時的概念

and I could see the wrong concept

我上禮拜在華盛頓參加全球健康會議

even active people in United States had,

而我看到這個錯誤的概念

that they didn't realize the improvement

甚至是在美國活躍的人仍有。

of Mexico there, and China, in relation to United States.

也就是他們並沒有察覺到進步：

Look here when I move them forward.

墨西哥的進步、中國的進步，相較於美國的

Here we go.

看看這裡，當我將他們推進

They catch up. There's Mexico.

到這裡

It's on par with United States in these two social dimensions.

他們追上了。這裡有墨西哥

There was less than five percent

在這兩個社會面向上，墨西哥和美國不相上下

of the specialists in Global Health that was aware of this.

只有不到5%

This great nation, Mexico,

的全球健康專員意識到這件事

has the problem that arms are coming from North,

這個大國，墨西哥

across the borders, so they had to stop that,

有北方來的武器的問題

because they have this strange relationship to the United States, you know.

越過國界，所以他們必須阻止走私這件事。

But if I would change this axis here,

因為他們和美國有著微妙的關係，你知道。

I would instead put income per person.

但如果我改變這裡的這個軸，看。

Income per person. I can put that here.

然後把單位改成人均收入

And we will then see

人均收人。我可以把那放在這。

a completely different picture.

然後我們可以看到，

By the way, I'm teaching you

一個完全不同的現象

how to use our website, Gapminder World,

對了，我正在教你們

while I'm correcting this,

如何使用我們的網站：Gapminder World

because this is a free utility on the net.

為什麼我要修改這個？

And when I now finally got it right,

因為這是網路上免費的資源

I can go back 200 years in history.

而當我終於把它弄對了，

And I can find United States up there.

我可以回到二百年前

And I can let the other countries be shown.

然後我可以看到美國在上面這裡，

And now I have income per person on this axis.

而且我可以顯示其他國家

And United States only had some, one, two thousand dollars at that time.

而現在我在這個軸上有人均收入

And the life expectancy was 35 to 40 years,

美國人在當時平均只有2,000美金

on par with Afghanistan today.

而平均壽命只有35到40歲

And what has happened in the world, I will show now.

和今天的阿富汗一樣。

This is instead of studying history

然後世界上發生了什麼事，我現在展示給你們看

for one year at university.

相較於在大學裡

You can watch me for one minute now and you'll see the whole thing.

讀一年的歷史

(Laughter)

你可以用一分鐘的時間看我，然後你看到完整的故事♫

You can see how the brown bubbles, which is west Europe,

（笑）

and the yellow one, which is the United States,

你可以看到這些代表西歐的棕色圈圈，

they get richer and richer and also

而代表美國的黃色圈圈

start to get healthier and healthier.

他們如何愈來愈富有並且

And this is now 100 years ago,

開始愈來愈健康

where the rest of the world remains behind.

而這是100年前，

Here we come. And that was the influenza.

當其餘的國家還遠遠落後

That's why we are so scared about flu, isn't it?

就是這裡，流行病爆發

It's still remembered. The fall of life expectancy.

這就是為什麼我們這麼怕流行性感冒，不是嗎？

And then we come up. Not until

人們仍然記得。平均壽命的縮短。

independence started.

然後我們起來了，一直要到

Look here You have China over there,

獨立時期開始

you have India over there,

看中國在那裡

and this is what has happened.

而印度在那裡

Did you note there, that we have Mexico up there?

而這是已經發生的

Mexico is not at all on par with the United States,

你注意到那裡，我們有墨西哥在上面那裡，

but they are quite close.

墨西哥和美國一點也不相等

And especially, it's interesting to see

但他們很近

China and the United States

特別有趣的是觀察

during 200 years,

這200年間的

because I have my oldest son now working for Google,

中國跟美國

after Google acquired this software.

因為我大兒子在Google買下這套軟體後，

Because in fact, this is child labor. My son and his wife sat in a closet

就在Google工作

for many years and developed this.

因為事實上這是我孩子的心血。我兒子和他的妻子待在小房間裡

And my youngest son, who studied Chinese in Beijing.

許多年然後開發了這個

So they come in with the two perspectives I have, you know?

而我的小兒子，曾去北京學中文

And my son, youngest son who studied in Beijing,

結果他們給了我兩種不同的觀點，你們知道嗎？

in China, he got a long-term perspective.

我那個在中國北京讀過書的小兒子，

Whereas when my oldest son, who works for Google,

他看事情是用長遠的觀點

he should develop by quarter, or by half-year.

而我那在Google工作的大兒子，

Or Google is quite generous, so he can have one or two years to go.

他則要每季或每半年開發新的成果

But in China they look generation after generation

或者説Google還蠻大方的，所以他可以有一到兩年去做這件事。

because they remember

但在中國，他們看世代的交替

the very embarrassing period, for 100 years,

因為他們記得

when they went backwards.

過去這100年來非常困窘的時期，

And then they would remember the first part

這段他們退步的時期

of last century, which was really bad,

於是他們會記得上個世紀的

and we could go by this so-called Great Leap Forward.

前半部，非常糟的時期。

But this was 1963.

然後歷經這個所謂的大躍進

Mao Tse-Tung eventually brought health to China,

但這是在1963年

and then he died, and then Deng Xiaoping started

毛澤東終於為中國帶來健康

this amazing move forward.

然後他死了。而鄧小平開始

Isn't it strange to see that the United States

這個驚人的進步

first grew the economy, and then gradually got rich?

難道看美國一開始發展經濟

Whereas China could get healthy much earlier,

然後逐漸富裕不奇怪嗎？

because they applied the knowledge of education, nutrition,

而中國卻在更早的時候就發展健康，

and then also benefits of penicillin

因為他們可以實施了教育、營養的知識

and vaccines and family planning.

他們同樣受惠於盤尼西林

And Asia could have social development

疫苗以及家庭計劃。

before they got the economic development.

所以亞洲在經濟發展前

So to me, as a public health professor,

先有社會層面的建設

it's not strange that all these countries grow so fast now.

所以對我一個公共衛生教授而言，

Because what you see here, what you see here

看這些國家發展如此迅速一點也不奇怪。

is the flat world of Thomas Friedman,

因為你在這裡看到什麼，在這裡看到的

isn't it.

就是湯瑪士傅利曼所説的世界是平的

It's not really, really flat.

不是嗎？

But the middle income countries --

其實不竟然如此

and this is where I suggest to my students,

但這些中產國家

stop using the concept "developing world."

這是我對我的學生建議的

Because after all, talking about the developing world

停止用〝開發中國家〞這樣的概念

is like having two chapters in the history of the United States.

因為畢竟，提到開發中國家

The last chapter is about present, and president Obama,

就像是讀美國歷史的兩個章節

and the other is about the past,

後面的這章是現在，也就是歐巴馬總統

where you cover everything from Washington

而另一章則是過去

to Eisenhower.

指的是從華盛頓開始

Because Washington to Eisenhower,

到艾森豪

that is what we find in the developing world.

因為從華盛頓到艾森豪

We could actually go to Mayflower

是我們在開發中國家中看見的

to Eisenhower,

我們實際上可以從五月花號

and that would be put together into a developing world,

到艾森豪

which is rightly growing its cities in a very amazing way,

這段時間的情形可以在開發中國家中看見

which have great entrepreneurs,

然而這些國家中的城市正以驚人的方式成長

but also have the collapsing countries.

其中有許多厲害的創業家

So, how could we make better sense about this?

但也有正在傾頹中的國家

Well, one way of trying is to see whether we could

所以我們要怎麼要如何解釋這樣的結果呢?

look at income distribution.

一種方式是看我們可以試著

This is the income distribution of peoples in the world,

觀察收入的分配

from $1. This is where you have food to eat.

這是世界上各民族的收入分配

These people go to bed hungry.

從一元。這裡是你有食物可以吃。

And this is the number of people.

這些人餓著肚子睡覺

This is $10, whether you have a public or a private

而這些人

health service system. This is where you can

這是十元。不論你有公營或私營的

provide health service for your family and school for your children,

健康服務系統，這裡你可以

and this is OECD countries:

提供你的家人、學校與子女健康服務。

Green, Latin America, East Europe.

然後這裡是OECD成員國

This is East Asia, and the light blue there is South Asia.

綠色的，拉丁美洲、東歐

And this is how the world changed.

這裡是東亞。而淡藍色的圈圈是南亞。

It changed like this.

這是世界如何改變。

Can you see how it's growing? And how hundreds of millions

它像這樣改變。

and billions is coming out of poverty in Asia?

你可以看到它是怎麼成長的嗎？有成千上百萬

And it goes over here?

甚至上億的亞洲人正在遠離貧窮？

And I come now, into projections,

它走到這裡

but I have to stop at the door of Lehman Brothers there, you know, because --

然後我現在到這理，做預測。

(Laughter)

但我必須要停在雷曼兄弟門口，你知道，因為⋯

that's where the projections are not valid any longer.

（笑）

Probably the world will do this.

因為這裡的預測不再準確

and then it will continue forward like this.

或許這個世界會這麼做

But more or less, this is what will happen,

然後它會繼續像這樣往前

and we have a world which cannot be looked upon as divided.

但或多或少這就是會發生的

We have the high income countries here,

我們有一個不能被分開檢視的世界

with the United States as a leading power;

這裡有高所得國家

we have the emerging economies in the middle,

以美國為首

which provide a lot of the funding for the bailout;

在中間這裡有新興市場

and we have the low income countries here.

提供很多資供緊急融資

Yeah, this is a fact that from where the money comes,

而這裡有低所得國家

they have been saving, you know, over the last decade.

這是金錢來源的事實

And here we have the low income countries

你知道的，他們在過去十年間一直在存錢

where entrepreneurs are.

而這裡的低所得國家

And here we have the countries in collapse and war,

是創業家所在的地方

like Afghanistan, Somalia, parts of Congo, Darfur.

而這裡我們有衰敗和戰爭中的國家

We have all this at the same time.

阿富汗、索馬利亞，部分的剛果、達弗

That's why it's so problematic to describe what has happened

我們同時擁有這些

in the developing world.

這也是為什麼要解釋在開發中世界所發生的事

Because it's so different, what has happened there.

是多麼困難

And that's why I suggest

因為它是如此不同，指的是在那裡所發生的事。

a slightly different approach of what you would call it.

也因此我建議

And you have huge differences within countries also.

用些微不同的方式來稱呼

I heard that your departments here were by regions.

同時在國與國間，也有很大的差別

Here you have Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia,

我聽説你們的部門是以地區分的

East Asia, Arab states,

這裡有次撒哈拉非洲，南亞

East Europe, Latin America, and OECD.

東亞、阿拉伯國家

And on this axis, GDP.

東歐、拉丁美洲和OECD國家

And on this, heath, child survival,

GDP在這個軸上

and it doesn't come as a surprise

健康以及小孩的存活率在這裡

that Africa south of Sahara is at the bottom.

不意外地

But when I split it, when I split it

非洲、撒哈拉南部在底部

into country bubbles,

但當我分開它，當我拆解它

the size of the bubbles here is the population.

成為代表國家的圈圈

Then you see Sierra Leone and Mauritius, completely different.

圈圈的大小是人口數

There is such a difference within Sub-Saharan Africa.

你可以看到塞拉利昂和毛里求斯是完全不同的

And I can split the others. Here is the South Asian,

在次撒哈拉非洲地區裡就有如此的差異

Arab world.

我還把其他的也拆解了。這裡的是南亞

Now all your different departments.

阿拉伯世界

East Europe, Latin America, and OECD countries.

這樣你們看到了不同的區域與國家

And here were are. We have a continuum in the world.

東歐、拉丁美洲、和富裕國家

We cannot put it into two parts.

於是我們就得到了一個世界的進程

It is Mayflower down here. It is Washington here,

我們不能只把它分成兩個部分

building, building countries.

下面這裡是五月花（時期），這裡是華盛頓（時期）

It's Lincoln here, advancing them.

不斷地開發、建設國家

It's Eisenhower bringing modernity into the countries.

這裡是林肯（時期），又加速了發展

And then it's United States today, up here.

是艾森豪為這些國家帶來現代化

And we have countries all this way.

然後在上面這裡就是今天的美國