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  • I have given the slide show that I gave here two years ago about 2,000 times.

    譯者: Joyce Lynn 審譯者: Chih-Yuan Huang

  • I'm giving a short slide show this morning

    兩年前,我在這裡講過一場演講,後來,同樣的內容我大概又講了2000次

  • that I'm giving for the very first time, so --

    今天早上的投影片內容

  • well it's -- I don't want or need to raise the bar,

    可是我頭一次講的

  • I'm actually trying to lower the bar.

    我這樣說,並非想提高標準

  • Because I've cobbled this together

    其實我是想降低標準。

  • to try to meet the challenge of this session.

    因為,我東拼西湊了這些資料

  • And I was reminded by Karen Armstrong's fantastic presentation

    來配合今天的演講場合。

  • that religion really properly understood

    我不禁想起了凱倫‧阿姆斯壯( Karen Armstrong) 曾說過

  • is not about belief, but about behavior.

    宗教,恰當地來說,其實非關人類的信仰

  • Perhaps we should say the same thing about optimism.

    而是人類的行為。

  • How dare we be optimistic?

    或許,我們也該如此看待「樂觀」這件事。

  • Optimism is sometimes characterized as a belief, an intellectual posture.

    我們怎敢說自己是樂觀派呢?

  • As Mahatma Gandhi famously said,

    樂觀,有時被當成一種信仰,一種理智的態度

  • "You must become the change you wish to see in the world."

    誠如印度國父甘地所言,

  • And the outcome about which

    「你希望世界變成什麼樣子,你自己要先成為那個樣子」

  • we wish to be optimistic is not going to be created

    我們想要樂觀,可是樂觀

  • by the belief alone, except to the extent that the belief

    並不會因為我們想要而自動產生

  • brings about new behavior. But the word "behavior"

    除非我們的想法,某個程度上

  • is also, I think, sometimes misunderstood in this context.

    可以帶來新的行為,但是「行為」這個字眼

  • I'm a big advocate of changing

    我覺得,有時候在這種情況下會被誤解

  • the lightbulbs and buying hybrids,

    我是大力贊成換省電燈泡

  • and Tipper and I put 33 solar panels on our house,

    還有開油電車的人,

  • and dug the geothermal wells, and did all of that other stuff.

    我和太太一同幫家裡裝了 33 片太陽能板,

  • But, as important as it is to change the lightbulbs,

    也開挖地熱井,還有做了許多其他類似的事情。

  • it is more important to change the laws.

    雖然,換省電燈泡很重要,

  • And when we change our behavior in our daily lives,

    但是,修訂法條更重要。

  • we sometimes leave out the citizenship part

    當我們在改變每天的行為模式時,

  • and the democracy part. In order to be optimistic about this,

    卻忘了我們還有公民權利

  • we have to become incredibly active as citizens in our democracy.

    還有民主制度,為了要可以真正樂觀,

  • In order to solve the climate crisis,

    我們必須更積極扮演好我們的公民角色。

  • we have to solve the democracy crisis.

    要解決地球的氣候危機,

  • And we have one.

    我們要先解決我們的民主危機。

  • I have been trying to tell this story for a long time.

    我們的民主真的有危機。

  • I was reminded of that recently, by a woman

    這個故事我已經講過很多次了。

  • who walked past the table I was sitting at,

    最近有位女士又讓我想起這個故事

  • just staring at me as she walked past. She was in her 70s,

    我那時坐著,她走過我的旁邊

  • looked like she had a kind face. I thought nothing of it

    她一直盯著我看,年紀大約七十來歲

  • until I saw from the corner of my eye

    她看起來很和藹,我本來也不以為意

  • she was walking from the opposite direction,

    後來我從眼睛的餘光看到她

  • also just staring at me. And so I said, "How do you do?"

    她從對面方向朝我走來,

  • And she said, "You know, if you dyed your hair black,

    她還是一直盯著我看,於是,我跟她說:「您好!」

  • you would look just like Al Gore." (Laughter)

    然後,她就說:「你知道嗎?如果你把頭髮染黑

  • Many years ago, when I was a young congressman,

    你看起來就像高爾副總統。」(哄堂大笑)

  • I spent an awful lot of time dealing with the challenge

    多年前,我還是個年輕的國會議員

  • of nuclear arms control -- the nuclear arms race.

    那時我花了好多時間

  • And the military historians taught me,

    處理核武限制、核武競賽的問題。

  • during that quest, that military conflicts are typically

    在那段期間,軍事專家告訴我

  • put into three categories: local battles,

    軍事衝突基本上分為三大類

  • regional or theater wars, and the rare but all-important

    局部戰事、區域戰爭

  • global, world war -- strategic conflicts.

    以及罕見但嚴重的世界大戰

  • And each level of conflict requires a different allocation of resources,

    戰略性衝突。

  • a different approach,

    不同衝突階段需要不同的資源分配

  • a different organizational model.

    不同的兵法

  • Environmental challenges fall into the same three categories,

    以及不同的組織形態

  • and most of what we think about

    環保的挑戰同樣也可以分成這三類

  • are local environmental problems: air pollution, water pollution,

    目前大部分人的想法

  • hazardous waste dumps. But there are also

    都停留在局部的環保問題:空氣污染、水污染

  • regional environmental problems, like acid rain

    有害廢棄物棄置等。

  • from the Midwest to the Northeast, and from Western Europe

    但是還有區域的環保問題,像是酸雨

  • to the Arctic, and from the Midwest

    從中西部到東北部,從西歐到北極

  • out the Mississippi into the dead zone of the Gulf of Mexico.

    從中西部密西西比以外

  • And there are lots of those. But the climate crisis

    到墨西哥灣的死區。

  • is the rare but all-important

    這類區域環保問題太多了,但是氣候危機

  • global, or strategic, conflict.

    是屬於罕見而嚴重的全球性問題

  • Everything is affected. And we have to organize our response

    是戰略性的衝突。

  • appropriately. We need a worldwide, global mobilization

    全球無一倖免!大家必須組織動員起來

  • for renewable energy, conservation, efficiency

    一起好好面對這個問題,我們需要全球動員

  • and a global transition to a low-carbon economy.

    找尋再生能源,保護地球資源,提升效能

  • We have work to do. And we can mobilize resources

    全世界一起轉型成「低碳經濟」。

  • and political will. But the political will

    我們有好多事情要做,我們可以動員各種資源

  • has to be mobilized, in order to mobilize the resources.

    包括政治力,但政治力要先動員起來

  • Let me show you these slides here.

    才能有效動員其他資源

  • I thought I would start with the logo. What's missing here,

    我來給大家看些投影片

  • of course, is the North Polar ice cap.

    我想就從這個LOGO開始,這裡已經消失的

  • Greenland remains. Twenty-eight years ago, this is what the

    當然,就是北極冰帽

  • polar ice cap -- the North Polar ice cap -- looked like

    格林蘭還在,28年前,這裡還是極地冰帽

  • at the end of the summer, at the fall equinox.

    北極冰帽

  • This last fall, I went to the Snow and Ice Data Center

    看起來是夏末秋分的時節。

  • in Boulder, Colorado, and talked to the researchers

    這是去年秋天,我去冰雪資料中心

  • here in Monterey at the Naval Postgraduate Laboratory.

    在科羅拉多的博爾德市,向研究人員演講

  • This is what's happened in the last 28 years.

    這是在蒙特雷的海軍研究所實驗室。

  • To put it in perspective, 2005 was the previous record.

    這是過去 28 年的情形

  • Here's what happened last fall

    正確來說,上次記錄是2005做的。

  • that has really unnerved the researchers.

    這是去年秋天的情形

  • The North Polar ice cap is the same size geographically --

    這讓研究人員相當緊張。

  • doesn't look quite the same size --

    從地形上來看,北極冰帽大小非常像美國。

  • but it is exactly the same size as the United States,

    雖然看起來沒有完全像,

  • minus an area roughly equal to the state of Arizona.

    但它跟美國的大小一樣,

  • The amount that disappeared in 2005

    扣掉大約一個亞利桑納州的面積。

  • was equivalent to everything east of the Mississippi.

    2005 年冰帽消失的面積

  • The extra amount that disappeared last fall

    等於密西西比以東的面積。

  • was equivalent to this much. It comes back in the winter,

    去年秋天再消失的面積

  • but not as permanent ice, as thin ice --

    等於這麼多,它在冬天又回來了

  • vulnerable. The amount remaining could be completely gone

    但這並不是永久冰,而是薄冰。

  • in summer in as little as five years.

    是會融化的,現在僅存的冰也是會完全消失的

  • That puts a lot of pressure on Greenland.

    大約五年後的夏天就會消失。

  • Already, around the Arctic Circle --

    這讓格林蘭面臨極大壓力。

  • this is a famous village in Alaska. This is a town

    這是在北極圈附近

  • in Newfoundland. Antarctica. Latest studies from NASA.

    這是阿拉斯加一個有名的村莊,這是個小鎮

  • The amount of a moderate-to-severe snow melting

    在紐芬蘭,在南極洲,太空總署的最新研究。

  • of an area equivalent to the size of California.

    中度到重度融冰的數量

  • "They were the best of times,

    約等於一個加州。

  • they were the worst of times": the most famous opening sentence

    這是最好的時代

  • in English literature. I want to share briefly

    也是最壞的時代:這是英國文學

  • a tale of two planets. Earth and Venus

    最有名的開場白,我想要簡短地

  • are exactly the same size. Earth's diameter

    跟你們講兩個星球的故事

  • is about 400 kilometers larger, but essentially the same size.

    地球和金星大小一樣

  • They have exactly the same amount of carbon.

    地球直徑約多了 400 公里,但基本上,兩者大小一樣。

  • But the difference is, on Earth, most of the carbon

    兩者含碳量也相同

  • has been leeched over time out of the atmosphere,

    但不同的是,地球上大多數的碳

  • deposited in the ground as coal, oil,

    經過長時間,都被從大氣層中吸了出去,

  • natural gas, etc. On Venus, most of it

    藏在土壤中,像是煤炭、石油

  • is in the atmosphere. The difference is that our temperature

    天然氣等等,而在金星,大部分的碳

  • is 59 degrees on average. On Venus,

    都在大氣層中,結果我們的溫度

  • it's 855. This is relevant to our current strategy

    平均 59 度,而金星的溫度是855 度

  • of taking as much carbon out of the ground as quickly as possible,

    這跟我們現在的做法有相當的關係

  • and putting it into the atmosphere.

    我們正在加速把土壤中的碳拿出來

  • It's not because Venus is slightly closer to the Sun.

    放回大氣層裡頭去。

  • It's three times hotter than Mercury,

    金星不是因為離太陽近一點

  • which is right next to the Sun. Now, briefly,

    所以它比水星熱三倍,

  • here's an image you've seen, as one of the only old images,

    水星就在太陽的旁邊,簡單來說

  • but I show it because I want to briefly give you CSI: Climate.

    看看這張圖片,這是你看過的照片,

  • The global scientific community says:

    我讓大家簡單看看氣候犯罪現場的照片。

  • man-made global warming pollution, put into the atmosphere,

    全球科學界都說,

  • thickening this, is trapping more of the outgoing infrared.

    人類造成全球溫室污染,排入大氣層中

  • You all know that. At the last

    把這個加厚,更多紅外線無法輻射出去。

  • IPCC summary, the scientists wanted to say,

    這些你都已經知道了

  • "How certain are you?" They wanted to answer that "99 percent."

    根據 IPCC 最新的說法,科學家想告訴我們

  • The Chinese objected, and so the compromise was

    「你有多確定呢?」科學家想回答:「百分之九十九」

  • "more than 90 percent."

    中國代表反對這種說法,所以折衷的說法是

  • Now, the skeptics say, "Oh, wait a minute,

    「百分之九十以上」

  • this could be variations in this energy

    現在,懷疑論者說,「等一下」

  • coming in from the sun." If that were true,

    這裡面有許多變數,來自太陽的能量。

  • the stratosphere would be heated as well as the

    如果這是真的話

  • lower atmosphere, if it's more coming in.

    同溫層的溫度會上升

  • If it's more being trapped on the way out, then you would

    大氣層下層溫度也會上升,如果有更多熱量進來。

  • expect it to be warmer here and cooler here. Here is the lower atmosphere.

    如果有更多紅外線出不去

  • Here's the stratosphere: cooler.

    你可以預期這裡比較熱,這裡比較涼,這裡是大氣層的下層。

  • CSI: Climate.

    這裡是同溫層,比較涼。

  • Now, here's the good news. Sixty-eight percent of Americans now believe

    氣候犯罪現場的分析

  • that human activity is responsible

    這裡有些好消息,現在有68%的美國人相信

  • for global warming. Sixty-nine percent believe that the Earth is heating up

    人類要為全球暖化負責

  • in a significant way. There has been progress,

    有69%相信地球的溫度正急遽升高

  • but here is the key: when given a list

    觀念上的確是有些進步了

  • of challenges to confront, global warming is still listed at near the bottom.

    但重點是:如果要開一張清單

  • What is missing is a sense of urgency.

    列出我們要面對的挑戰,全球暖化還是被排在很下面。

  • If you agree with the factual analysis,

    因為我們缺少了急迫感。

  • but you don't feel the sense of urgency,

    如果你都同意這些事實分析,

  • where does that leave you?

    但是你卻沒有急迫感,

  • Well, the Alliance for Climate Protection, which I head

    你會怎麼做呢?

  • in conjunction with Current TV -- who did this pro bono --

    我所領導的氣候保護聯盟

  • did a worldwide contest to do commercials on how to communicate this.

    跟 CurrentTV 一起共同舉辦了

  • This is the winner.

    一場全球廣告競賽,來宣傳這件事情。

  • NBC -- I'll show all of the networks here -- the top journalists

    這是得獎作品。

  • for NBC asked 956 questions in 2007

    我給大家看看所有的媒體 - NBC 電視台他們頂尖的記者群

  • of the presidential candidates: two of them were about

    2007 年向總統候選人提了 956 個問題

  • the climate crisis. ABC: 844 questions, two about the climate crisis.

    只有兩個是關於氣候危機的問題

  • Fox: two. CNN: two. CBS: zero.

    ABC 電視台:844個問題,只有兩個關於氣候危機

  • From laughs to tears -- this is one of the older

    Fox 電視台:兩個,CNN 新聞網:兩個,CBS 電視台:沒有

  • tobacco commercials.

    樂極生悲,這是一個很老的

  • So here's what we're doing.

    香煙廣告。

  • This is gasoline consumption in all of these countries. And us.

    這是我們正在做的事情。

  • But it's not just the developed nations.

    這是這些國家的石油消耗量,這是我們美國的消耗量。

  • The developing countries are now following us

    不是只有已開發國家這樣而已。

  • and accelerating their pace. And actually,

    開發中國家現在也步上了我們的後塵

  • their cumulative emissions this year are the equivalent

    而且腳步更快。事實上,

  • to where we were in 1965. And they're catching up

    他們今年的累積排放量已經等於

  • very dramatically. The total concentrations:

    我們在 1965 年的水準了。

  • by 2025, they will be essentially where we were in 1985.

    他們還在拼命急起直追

  • If the wealthy countries were completely missing

    到 2025 年的總排放量,大概會到達我們在 1985 年的水準。

  • from the picture, we would still have this crisis.

    就算有錢國家全都消失了

  • But we have given to the developing countries

    從這圖上來看,我們還是得面臨危機。

  • the technologies and the ways of thinking

    因為我們給了開發中國家

  • that are creating the crisis. This is in Bolivia --

    跟我們一樣的科技、一樣的思惟模式

  • over thirty years.

    因而產生一樣的危機,這是玻利維亞

  • This is peak fishing in a few seconds. The '60s.

    過去三十年的情形

  • '70s. '80s. '90s. We have to stop this. And the good news is that we can.

    接下來幾秒鐘是捕魚高峰期的圖,60年代

  • We have the technologies.

    70年代、80年代、90年代,我們必須停止這種情形,好消息是我們做得到

  • We have to have a unified view of how to go about this:

    我們有這方面的技術。

  • the struggle against poverty in the world

    至於要怎麼做,我們必須要有一致的看法

  • and the challenge of cutting wealthy country emissions,

    全世界都在對抗貧窮

  • all has a single, very simple solution.

    同時還有降低富有國家碳排放量的挑戰,

  • People say, "What's the solution?" Here it is.

    這些問題有個唯一的、簡單的解決之道。

  • Put a price on carbon. We need a CO2 tax, revenue neutral,

    有人問:「什麼解決之道?」,就是這個。

  • to replace taxation on employment, which was invented by Bismarck --

    給碳訂個價錢,我們需要徵收二氧化碳的稅,但不增加整體稅賦,

  • and some things have changed

    來取代以聘雇課稅的方式,這是俾斯麥發明的

  • since the 19th century.

    自從十九世紀開始

  • In the poor world, we have to integrate the responses

    有些事情就已經變了。

  • to poverty with the solutions to the climate crisis.

    對貧窮國家來說,貧窮問題

  • Plans to fight poverty in Uganda

    要跟氣候危機一起解決。

  • are mooted, if we do not solve the climate crisis.

    烏干達對抗貧窮的計畫會被不斷討論

  • But responses can actually make a huge difference

    如果我們不一併解決氣候危機的問題。

  • in the poor countries. This is a proposal

    但是貧窮國家對抗貧窮的方式

  • that has been talked about a lot in Europe.

    可能會有極大的差異。

  • This was from Nature magazine. These are concentrating

    在歐洲,這個提案已經被廣泛地討論過了。

  • solar, renewable energy plants, linked in a so-called "supergrid"

    這是 Nature 雜誌寫的,這些是密集的

  • to supply all of the electrical power

    太陽能再生能源電廠,串連成一個超級輸電網

  • to Europe, largely from developing countries -- high-voltage DC currents.

    提供全歐洲所有的電力

  • This is not pie in the sky; this can be done.

    這些多半來自開發中國家,高壓直流電。

  • We need to do it for our own economy.

    這不是空話,這是可行的。

  • The latest figures show that the old model

    為了我們的經濟,我們得這麼做

  • is not working. There are a lot of great investments

    最新的數據顯示,過去的舊模式是行不通的

  • that you can make. If you are investing in tar sands

    不過還是有很多你可以投資的東西

  • or shale oil, then you have a portfolio

    如果你投資了瀝青砂,或頁岩油

  • that is crammed with sub-prime carbon assets.

    那你的投資組合裡面

  • And it is based on an old model.

    就有很多次級碳資產。

  • Junkies find veins in their toes when the ones

    這是根據舊有的模式

  • in their arms and their legs collapse. Developing tar sands

    當吸毒的人手臂跟腳的靜脈血管都萎縮了

  • and coal shale is the equivalent. Here are just a few of the investments

    他們就會發現自己腳趾頭的靜脈了。

  • that I personally think make sense.

    開發瀝青砂和煤炭頁岩結果都一樣

  • I have a stake in these, so I'll have a disclaimer there.

    這是一些我個人認為值得的投資。

  • But geothermal, concentrating solar,

    我自己也投資了一些,所以對此我會發表免責聲明

  • advanced photovoltaics, efficiency and conservation.

    但是地熱,密集太陽能

  • You've seen this slide before, but there's a change.

    高階太陽能發電,兼顧效能與節能。

  • The only two countries that didn't ratify

    你以前有看過這張投影片,但現在有點不一樣了。

  • -- and now there's only one. Australia had an election.

    那兩個不簽署的國家

  • And there was a campaign in Australia

    現在只剩下一個了,澳洲經過了一場選舉。

  • that involved television and Internet and radio commercials

    當時在澳洲有一系列宣傳活動

  • to lift the sense of urgency for the people there.

    包括電視、網路、廣播廣告等

  • And we trained 250 people to give the slide show

    為了加深人們的急迫感。

  • in every town and village and city in Australia.

    我們訓練了250人來講這些投影片

  • Lot of other things contributed to it,

    給澳洲每個小鎮、村子,還有城裡的人聽。

  • but the new Prime Minister announced that

    很多其他的資源也都做了貢獻

  • his very first priority would be to change Australia's position

    最後澳洲的新總理宣佈

  • on Kyoto, and he has. Now, they came to an awareness

    他上任後的第一件事就是要改變澳洲對京都議定書的立場

  • partly because of the horrible drought that they have had.

    他的承諾他真的做到了。

  • This is Lake Lanier. My friend Heidi Cullen

    現在他們總算意識到問題了,有部份原因是因為澳洲的乾旱。

  • said that if we gave droughts names the way we give hurricanes names,

    這是拉尼爾湖,我朋友 Heidi Cullins 說

  • we'd call the one in the southeast now Katrina,

    如果我們像幫颶風命名一樣,也幫乾旱取名字

  • and we would say it's headed toward Atlanta.

    我們會叫東南部的那個乾旱「卡崔納」

  • We can't wait for the kind of drought

    然後我們會說它正朝亞特蘭大前進。

  • Australia had to change our political culture.

    我們不能等到像澳洲那麼嚴重的乾旱發生了

  • Here's more good news. The cities supporting Kyoto in the U.S.

    才來改變我們的政治文化。

  • are up to 780 -- and I thought I saw one go by there,

    這裡有更多好消息,這是全美支持京都議定書的城市

  • just to localize this -- which is good news.

    有多達780個城市,我好像有看到一個熟悉的名字

  • Now, to close, we heard a couple of days ago

    就是它,這的確是個好消息。

  • about the value of making individual heroism so commonplace

    最後來做個結論,幾天前我們聽到有人說

  • that it becomes banal or routine.

    個人英雄主義已經普通到沒什麼價值了

  • What we need is another hero generation. Those of us who are alive

    以致於英雄變得相當平庸或公式化。

  • in the United States of America

    我們需要的是另一個英雄世代,就是我們這些活在當下的人

  • today especially, but also the rest of the world,

    尤其是今天的美國人

  • have to somehow understand