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  • We live on a human-dominated planet,

    我們住在一個人類宰制著的星球上

  • putting unprecedented pressure

    而人類給予了地球上的系統前所未有的壓力。

  • on the systems on Earth.

    而人類給予了地球上的系統前所未有的壓力。

  • This is bad news, but perhaps surprising to you,

    這是個負面的事實,但出其意料的是

  • it's also part of the good news.

    這同時也是個正面的事實。

  • We're the first generation -- thanks to science --

    幸於科學的進步,我們是第一個世代能夠瞭解

  • to be informed that we may be

    我們行為可能對地球的生產力以及穩定性

  • undermining the stability and the ability

    我們行為可能對地球的生產力以及穩定性

  • of planet Earth

    與對於人類發展的負面影響。

  • to support human development as we know it.

    與對於人類發展的負面影響。

  • It's also good news, because the planetary risks we're facing

    這也是正面的事實,因為我們目前所面對的危機

  • are so large,

    大到平日正常運作的標準也無法紓緩。

  • that business as usual is not an option.

    大到平日正常運作的標準也無法紓緩。

  • In fact, we're in a phase

    事實上,我們處在一個

  • where transformative change is necessary,

    必須要尋求創新概念及典範的時期。

  • which opens the window for innovation,

    必須要尋求創新概念及典範的時期。

  • for new ideas and new paradigms.

    必須要尋求創新概念及典範的時期。

  • This is a scientific journey on the challenges facing humanity

    我今天的演講是則是一趟針對全球永續發展時期

  • in the global phase of sustainability.

    的一個科學旅程。

  • On this journey, I'd like to bring, apart from yourselves,

    在這趟旅程中,除了各位以外,我還想要帶一位朋友,

  • a good friend,

    在這趟旅程中,除了各位以外,我還想要帶一位朋友,

  • a stakeholder, who's always absent

    它是一位利益相關者,

  • when we deal with the negotiations on environmental issues,

    但在大家討論到環境問題時,它總是不在現場,

  • a stakeholder who refuses to compromise --

    因為它總是不願為了人類發展而妥協:

  • planet Earth.

    它就是我們的地球。

  • So I thought I'd bring her with me today on stage,

    今天我終有機會帶它上台與各位見面,

  • to have her as a witness

    它將作為這趟奇妙旅程

  • of a remarkable journey,

    的見證人,

  • which humbly reminds us

    這趟旅程將會提醒我們人類在過去一萬年中享有的美好時期。

  • of the period of grace we've had

    這趟旅程將會提醒我們人類在過去一萬年中享有的美好時期。

  • over the past 10,000 years.

    這趟旅程將會提醒我們人類在過去一萬年中享有的美好時期。

  • This is the living conditions on the planet over the last 100,000 years.

    這張圖顯示了人類在過去十萬年中的居住條件。

  • It's a very important period --

    這是一段非常重要的時期,

  • it's roughly half the period when we've been fully modern humans on the planet.

    這時段約略是現代人類時期的一半左右。

  • We've had the same, roughly, abilities

    這段時期的人類 (包括我們在內)

  • that developed civilizations as we know it.

    擁有約略同樣的文明發展能力。

  • This is the environmental conditions on the planet.

    這張圖也顯示了過去地球上的環境條件。

  • Here, used as a proxy, temperature variability.

    圖中以溫度作為居住條件的指標。

  • It was a jumpy ride. 80,000 years back in a crisis,

    這其實是一段充滿巨變的旅程。八萬年前曾出現一次危機,

  • we leave Africa, we colonize Australia

    人類離開了非洲大陸並殖民了澳大利亞。

  • in another crisis, 60,000 years back,

    在六萬年前的另一個危機中,人類離開了亞洲前往歐洲。

  • we leave Asia for Europe

    在六萬年前的另一個危機中,人類離開了亞洲前往歐洲。

  • in another crisis, 40,000 years back,

    而在四萬年前的危機後,

  • and then we enter

    人類進入了穩定的"全新世"(holocene)

  • the remarkably stable Holocene phase,

    人類進入了穩定的"全新世"(holocene)

  • the only period in the whole history of the planet,

    那是歷史上唯一一段能夠支持人類發展的世代。

  • that we know of, that can support human development.

    那是歷史上唯一一段能夠支持人類發展的世代。

  • A thousand years into this period,

    在進入這世代的一千年後,人類轉變了狩獵集居住的模式。

  • we abandon our hunting and gathering patterns.

    在進入這世代的一千年後,人類轉變了狩獵集居住的模式。

  • We go from a couple of million people

    從當時的幾百萬人繁衍成現今的七十億人口。

  • to the seven billion people we are today.

    從當時的幾百萬人繁衍成現今的七十億人口。

  • The Mesopotamian culture: we invent agriculture,

    人類在美索不達米亞文明中創造了農業,

  • we domesticate animals and plants.

    並養馴牲畜及植物。

  • You have the Roman, the Greek and the story as you know it.

    在那之後又出現了眾所皆知的羅馬和希臘文明。

  • The only phase, as we know it

    那是唯一適合人類生存及發展文明的時期。

  • that can support humanity.

    那是唯一適合人類生存及發展文明的時期。

  • The trouble is we're putting a quadruple sqeeze

    但問題是,我們卻四度地擠壓這可憐的星球。

  • on this poor planet,

    但問題是,我們卻四度地擠壓這可憐的星球。

  • a quadruple sqeeze, which, as its first squeeze,

    第一度壓力當然是人口成長。

  • has population growth of course.

    第一度壓力當然是人口成長。

  • Now, this is not only about numbers;

    這不只是數字上的問題,

  • this is not only about the fact that we're seven billion people

    也不只是現今七十億的人口

  • committed to nine billion people, it's an equity issue as well.

    可能在未來發展成九十億的事實,更是一個平等性的問題。

  • The majority of the environmental impacts on the planet

    地球上大多數的環境影響是由富裕的少數的人造成的,

  • have been caused by the rich minority,

    地球上大多數的環境影響是由富裕的少數的人造成的,

  • the 20 percent that jumped onto the industrial bandwagon

    就是那些在十八世紀中葉投身於工業革命的百分之二十人口。

  • in the mid-18th century.

    就是那些在十八世紀中葉投身於工業革命的百分之二十人口。

  • The majority of the planet,

    絕大多數的人口都想要爭取發展的機會,

  • aspiring for development, having the right for development,

    絕大多數的人口都想要爭取發展的機會,

  • are in large aspiring for an unsustainable lifestyle,

    但都被迫於陷入非永續的生活模式,

  • a momentous pressure.

    那是個極巨大的壓力。

  • The second pressure on the planet is, of course the climate agenda --

    第二度壓力則是氣候議題,

  • the big issue -- where the policy interpretation of science

    這是個很大的問題 --

  • is that it would be enough

    政策上認為科學指出將溫室氣體維持在450ppm則可維持穩定,

  • to stabilize greenhouse gases at 450 ppm

    政策上認為科學指出將溫室氣體維持在450ppm則可維持穩定,

  • to avoid average temperatures

    並且避免全球平均溫度上升兩度,

  • exceeding two degrees,

    並且避免全球平均溫度上升兩度,

  • to avoid the risk that we may be destabilizing

    進而避免動搖到西南極的冰層,

  • the West Antarctic Ice Sheet,

    進而避免動搖到西南極的冰層,

  • holding six meters -- level rising,

    有可能造成全球海平面上升六公尺

  • the risk of destabilizing the Greenland Ice Sheet,

    也可避免動搖到格陵蘭的冰層,

  • holding another seven meters -- sea level rising.

    有可能造成海平面上升七公尺。

  • Now, you would have wished the climate pressure

    你可能期望氣候變遷襲擊了是一顆極具抗壓性的星球,

  • to hit a strong planet, a resilient planet,

    你可能期望氣候變遷襲擊了是一顆極具抗壓性的星球,

  • but unfortunately, the third pressure

    但不幸的是,第三度的擠壓

  • is the ecosystem decline.

    造成了生態系統的衰退。

  • Never have we seen, in the past 50 years,

    在過去的五十年中

  • such a sharp decline

    我們從未見過如此劇烈的生態功能衰退

  • of ecosystem functions and services on the planet,

    我們從未見過如此劇烈的生態功能衰退

  • one of them being the ability to regulate climate on the long term,

    而其中之一就是生態長期調節森林、陸地、

  • in our forests, land and biodiversity.

    維持生物多樣性和調節氣候的能力。

  • The forth pressure is surprise,

    第四度的壓力則是出其預料的 -

  • the notion and the evidence

    依據現有的主張和證據

  • that we need to abandon our old paradigm,

    我們必須改變現在的想法,

  • that ecosystems behave linearly, predictably,

    我們不能夠再認為生態系只不過是線性系統

  • controllably in our -- so to say -- linear systems,

    它並不像一般的系統俱有預測性及控管性,

  • and that in fact, surprise is universal,

    事實上,出乎我們預料的事會不斷的出現

  • as systems tip over very rapidly, abruptly

    因為系統有可能很快速、突然、並不可扭轉地崩解。

  • and often irreversibly.

    因為系統有可能很快速、突然、並不可扭轉地崩解。

  • This, dear friends, poses a human pressure on the planet

    這些人類帶給生態的壓力也會轉為人類自身的巨大壓力。

  • of momentous scale.

    這些人類帶給生態的壓力也會轉為人類自身的巨大壓力。

  • We may, in fact, have entered a new geological era --

    其實我們人類已經進入了一個新的地質時代 --

  • the Anthropocene,

    叫做「人類世」,

  • where humans are the predominant driver of change

    在這世代中人類是主導星球改變的力量。

  • at a planetary level.

    在這世代中人類是主導星球改變的力量。

  • Now, as a scientist,

    現在,你們可能會問道:

  • what's the evidence for this?

    我身為一位科學家,那我的證據在哪?

  • Well, the evidence is,

    不幸的是,有非常多的證據

  • unfortunately, ample.

    能夠證明我所說的一切。

  • It's not only carbon dioxide

    並不是只有二氧化碳加速了整個生態變遷。

  • that has this hockey stick pattern of accelerated change.

    並不是只有二氧化碳加速了整個生態變遷。

  • You can take virtually any parameter

    幾乎所有影響著人類的健康的因素 -

  • that matters for human well-being --

    幾乎所有影響著人類的健康的因素 -

  • nitrous oxide, methane,

    一氧化二氮、甲烷

  • deforestation, overfishing

    森林毀壞、過度捕魚

  • land degredation, loss of species --

    土地退化,物種的喪失 --

  • they all show the same pattern

    種種的因素於過去兩百年

  • over the past 200 years.

    都顯示相同的趨勢。

  • Simultaneously, they branch off in the mid-50s,

    這些因素一起在二次世界大戰後十年的 1950 年代明顯化,

  • 10 years after the Second World War,

    這些因素一起在二次世界大戰後十年的 1950 年代明顯化,

  • showing very clearly that the great acceleration of the human enterprise

    清楚顯示了人類由50年代開始的加速發展。

  • starts in the mid-50s.

    清楚顯示了人類由50年代開始的加速發展。

  • You see, for the first time, an imprint on the global level.

    由那時開始,第一次看到了種種的全球性的演變。

  • And I can tell you,

    而我可以告訴你們,

  • you enter the disciplinary research in each of these,

    在你們的自身研究領域當中,

  • you find something remarkably important,

    都可以發現一些異乎尋常的結論,

  • the conclusion that we may have come to the point

    那就是我們可能處於

  • where we have to bend the curves,

    必須挽回現在的趨勢的時刻,

  • that we may have entered the most challenging and exciting decade

    我門已經進入了有史以來最具挑戰性和令人興奮的時代,

  • in the history humanity on the planet,

    我門已經進入了有史以來最具挑戰性和令人興奮的時代,

  • the decade when we have to bend the curves.

    必須要「改變的時代」。

  • Now, as if this was not enough --

    現在,改變趨勢和瞭解到地球正承受著巨大壓力之事實還不夠

  • to just bend the curves and understanding the accelerated pressure on the planet --

    現在,改變趨勢和瞭解到地球正承受著巨大壓力之事實還不夠

  • we also have to recognize the fact

    我們還得瞭解

  • that systems do have multiple stable states,

    所有的系統都有多重穩定的時期

  • separated by thresholds -- illustrated here by this ball and cup diagram,

    被幾個門檻所區隔 -- 由上圖所示,

  • where the depth of the cup is the resilience of the system.

    而各位看到的凹陷區塊顯示著系統的抗壓性。

  • Now, the system may gradually --

    但是呢,系統有可能在氣候變遷、

  • under pressure of climate change,

    但是呢,系統有可能在氣候變遷、

  • erosion, biodiversity loss --

    土質侵蝕,生物多樣性的喪失,等等因素下

  • lose the depth of the cup, the resilience,

    逐漸失去圖中凹陷地區 (代表抗壓性) 的深度,

  • but appear to be healthy

    地球可能還是顯得健康,

  • and appear to suddenly, under a threshold,

    但有可能在某一門檻中突然地崩解。誒!

  • be tipping over. Upff.

    但有可能在某一門檻中突然地崩解。誒!

  • Sorry. Changing state

    系統就會改變狀態

  • and literally ending up

    並可能進入我們所不希望的形勢,

  • in an undesired situation,

    並可能進入我們所不希望的形勢,

  • where new biophysical logic takes over,

    一個由新的生物物理邏輯接管的系統,

  • new species take over, and the system gets locked.

    新的物種勝出,而系統也被封鎖了。

  • Do we have evidence of this? Yes, coral reef systems.

    那我又有什麼證據?有的,珊瑚系統。

  • Biodiverse, low-nutrient, hard coral systems

    多樣化的,營養需求低的硬態珊瑚系統

  • under multiple pressures of overfishing,

    在多重壓力下:過度捕魚、

  • unsustainable tourism, climate change.

    非永續性的觀光、氣候變遷等等...

  • A trigger and the system tips over,

    可能都會造成珊瑚系統的崩解,

  • loses its resilience,

    可能都會造成珊瑚系統的崩解,

  • soft corals take over,

    那麼軟性珊瑚就在這情況下勝出,

  • and we get undesired systems

    而後果就是我們不希望的新系統,

  • that cannot support economic and social development.

    因為它不能扶助經濟和社會的發展。

  • The Arctic -- a beautiful system --

    美麗的北極圈是個調節地球的生物群落,

  • a regulating biome at the planetary level,

    美麗的北極圈是個調節地球的生物群落,

  • taking the knock after knock on climate change,

    在不斷地承受打擊後似乎依然處於良好的狀態。

  • appearing to be in a good state.

    在不斷地承受打擊後似乎依然處於良好的狀態。

  • No scientist could predict that in 2007,

    但沒有一位科學家能夠預測,

  • suddenly, what could be crossing a threshold.

    於 2007 年,北極圈系統忽然越過了門檻。

  • The system suddenly, very surprisingly, loses 30 to 40 percent

    北極圈系統突然地、並出乎預料地

  • of its summer ice cover.

    少了三到四成的夏季冰層面積。

  • And the drama is, of course, that

    戲劇性的當然是

  • when the system does this, the logic may change.

    此時系統邏輯有可能改變。

  • It may get locked in an undesired state,

    系統有可能被封鎖於一個不良的狀態,

  • because it changes color, absorbs more energy,

    因為它改變了顏色,吸收了更多的能量,

  • and the system may get stuck.

    然後系統就陷住了。

  • In my mind, the largest red flag warning for humanity

    依我看來,目前人類最大的危機紅旗就是

  • that we are in a precarious situation.

    我們處於一個危險的形勢當中。

  • As a sideline, you know that the only red flag that popped up here

    你們大概知道,北極唯一的紅旗

  • was a submarine from an unnamed country

    是被某個國家的濳水艇隊

  • that planted a red flag at the bottom of the Arctic

    於海底插上的,

  • to be able to control the oil resources.

    因為那個國家想要擁有北極圈裡的石油資源。

  • Now, if we have evidence, which we now have,

    那麼,現在我們有了證據顯示

  • that wetlands, forests,

    濕地、森林、

  • [unclear] monsoon system, the rainforests,

    梅雨系統、熱帶雨林等...

  • behave in this nonlinear way.

    不會一貫的線性發展。

  • 30 or so scientists around the world

    全世界共三十多位科學家同聚一堂,並詢問道:

  • gathered and asked a question for the first time,

    全世界共三十多位科學家同聚一堂,並詢問道:

  • "Do we have to put the planet into the the pot?"

    「我門非得將地球置於不可挽回的形式嗎?」

  • So we have to ask ourselves:

    我們必須捫心自問:

  • are we threatening this extraordinarily stable Holocene state?

    「人類是否威脅到了這段極為穩定的全新世?」

  • Are we in fact putting ourselves in a situation

    我們是否將自身至於一個

  • where we're coming too close

    太接近門檻,

  • to thresholds that could lead

    已至於越過後的狀態

  • to deleterious and very undesired,

    是一個有害,惡劣,

  • if now catastrophic, change

    甚至對人類發展造成

  • for human development?

    災難性的變化?

  • You know, you don't want to stand there.

    各位都知道,我們並不想發展到那樣的階段。

  • In fact, you're not even allowed to stand

    事實上,各位都不會想站在

  • where this gentleman is standing,

    如圖中的人所站的地方,

  • at the foaming, slippery waters at the threshold.

    那就像是個對人類來說危機四伏的門檻。

  • In fact, there's a fence

    其實,在人類發展的上游就有一座欄杆,

  • quite upstream of this threshold,

    其實,在人類發展的上游就有一座欄杆,

  • beyond which you are in a danger zone.

    能夠防止我們進入危險的時期。

  • And this is the new paradigm,

    這就是全新的典範及想法,

  • which we gathered two, three years back,

    我們兩、三年前就認知道了尋求舊的模式,

  • recognizing that our old paradigm

    我們兩、三年前就認知道了尋求舊的模式,

  • of just analyzing and pushing and predicting

    一味的分析、預測、並將種種的因素推向未來,

  • parameters into the future,

    一味的分析、預測、並將種種的因素推向未來,

  • aiming at minimalizing environmental impacts, is of the past.

    只是緣木求魚的做法。

  • Now we to ask ourselves:

    現在,我們自問道:

  • which are the large environmental processes

    到底有哪些主要的環境過程是我們必須要關切的,

  • that we have to be stewards of

    到底有哪些主要的環境過程是我們必須要關切的,

  • to keep ourselves safe in the Holocene?

    以確保人類自身的安危?

  • And could we even,

    而我們是否有辦法

  • thanks to major advancements in Earth systems science,

    利用地球科學的進步,

  • identify the thresholds,

    進一步地指出非線性發展的分岔點?

  • the points where we may expect nonlinear change?

    進一步地指出非線性發展的分岔點?

  • And could we even define

    我們也是否能夠針對地球承載界限

  • a planetary boundary, a fence,

    我們也是否能夠針對地球承載界限

  • within which we then have a safe operating space for humanity?

    界定出人類發展而不破壞的安全邊界?

  • This work, which was published in "Nature,"

    這個著作在 2009 年發表於「自然 (Nature)」雜誌中

  • late 2009,

    這個著作在 2009 年發表於「自然 (Nature)」雜誌中

  • after a number of years of analysis,

    在多年的分析後,科學家最終指出了九個「地球範疇」,

  • led to the final proposition

    在多年的分析後,科學家最終指出了九個「地球範疇」,

  • that we can only find

    在多年的分析後,科學家最終指出了九個「地球範疇」,

  • nine planetary boundaries

    在多年的分析後,科學家最終指出了九個「地球範疇」,

  • with which, under active stewardship,

    在這些範疇內,人類能夠得到安全的發展空間。

  • would allow ourselves to have a safe operating space.

    在這些邊界內,人類能夠得到安全的發展空間。

  • These include, of course, climate.

    這些範疇理所當然地包括了氣候。

  • It may surprise you that it's not only climate.

    出乎意料的是,不只是氣候而已。

  • But it shows that we are interconnected, among many systems on the planet,

    我們的人類系統與地球上眾多的系統是息息相關的,

  • with the three big systems, climate change,

    其中的三大系統為:氣候變遷、臭氧耗損和海水酸化

  • stratospheric ozone depletion and ocean acidification

    其中的三大系統為:氣候變遷、臭氧耗損和海水酸化

  • being the three big systems,

    其中的三大系統為:氣候變遷、臭氧耗損和海水酸化

  • where the scientific evidence of large-scale thresholds

    這些都是地球古歷史中經過科學佐證的重要範疇。

  • in the paleo-record of the history of the planet.

    這些都是地球古歷史中經過科學佐證的重要範疇。

  • But we also include, what we call, the slow variables,

    但我們也收錄了所謂的「緩慢變量質」,

  • the systems that, under the hood,

    這些是系統表層下調節和緩衝地球抗壓性的因素 --

  • regulate and buffer the capacity of the resilience of the planet --

    這些是系統表層下調節和緩衝地球抗壓性的因素 --

  • the interference of the big nitrogen and phosphorus cycles on the planet,

    大型的氮和磷的循環影響著地球,

  • land use change, rate of biodiversity loss,

    土地用量,生物多樣性的喪失速率,淡水用量等...

  • freshwater use,

    土地用量,生物多樣性的喪失速率,淡水用量等...

  • functions which regulate

    這些功能都會調節地球的生物質能、碳封存量、多樣性。

  • biomass on the planet, carbon sequestration, diversity.

    這些功能都會調節地球的生物質能、碳封存量、多樣性。

  • And then we have two parameters which we were not able to quantify --

    我們也發現兩類無法量化的因素質 --

  • air pollution,

    空氣污染,包括了溫室氣體、硫酸鹽、硝酸鹽,

  • including warming gases and air-polluting sulfates and nitrates,

    空氣污染,包括了溫室氣體、硫酸鹽、硝酸鹽,

  • but also chemical pollution.

    還有化學汙染。

  • Together, these form an integrated whole

    這些因素共同形成了人類發展的指標,

  • for guiding human development in the Anthropocene,

    這些因素共同集成了人類發展的指標,

  • understanding that the planet

    並使我們瞭解到地球本身

  • is a complex self-regulating system.

    也是一個非常複雜的自我調節系統。

  • In fact, most evidence indicates

    其實,多數的佐證顯示這九個範疇就像三劍客一般,

  • that these nine may behave as three Musketeers,

    其實,多數的佐證顯示這九個範疇就像三劍客一般,

  • "One for all. All for one."

    「我為人人,人人為我。」