to the White House.

到白宮。

Welcome, too, to those who are viewing our event today

也歡迎今天觀看我們活動的朋友們來參加

on the web via livestream.

在網絡上通過直播。

>> Male Speaker: Is that mic on?

＆gt;＆gt;男發言人。那話筒開著嗎？

(inaudible)

(聽不清)

>> Bob Simon: Yes, it is.

>>鮑勃-西蒙：是的，它是。

>> Male Speaker: Okay (inaudible).

>>男發言人。好的（聽不清）。

>> Bob Simon: Yes, it's on.

>>鮑勃-西蒙：是的，它'在。

>> Male Speaker: Okay.

>>男發言人。好的。

>> Bob Simon: We're glad that all of you are able

>>鮑勃-西蒙：我們'很高興你們所有人都能。

to share in the event today.

來分享今天的活動。

Today we're pleased to discuss a major new

今天，我們很高興地討論了一個重要的新的

scientific assessment that has been completed on the

的科學評估

impacts of climate change on human

氣候變化對人類的影響

health in the United States.

美國的健康問題。

This report has been three years in the making and

本報告已經編寫了三年，並已於2012年12月1日正式發佈。

its scientific assessment of what is known about the

其對《公約》已知情況的科學評估

impacts of climate change on human health and the degree

氣候變化對人類健康的影響及對人類健康的影響程度

of confidence that one can have in that knowledge is a

在這種知識中，一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁有的信心是一個人可以擁

significant contribution to the science on this subject.

對這一課題的科學做出了重大貢獻。

Today's introduction and discussion of this new

今天'對這個新的介紹和討論。

report will begin with a conversation between

報告將從以下兩個人的對話開始

Dr. John Holdren and EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy.

約翰-霍德倫博士和環保局局長吉娜-麥卡錫。

Dr. John P. Holdren is the President Obama's

約翰-P-霍爾德倫博士是奧巴馬總統'的。

Science and Technology Advisor and the

科學和技術顧問及

Senate-confirmed director of the White House

參議院確認的白宮主任

Office of Science and Technology Policy.

科學和技術政策辦公室；

In this capacity he's responsible for the

在這個身份下，他負責的是

administration's National Science and Technology

政府的國家科學和技術

Council which oversees the U.S. Global Change Research

監管美國全球變化研究的理事會。

Program which produced today's report.

節目，產生了今天'的報告。

His involvement today is only appropriate as he is a

他今天的參與是非常合適的，因為他是一個。

leading climate expert.

主要氣候專家。

Prior to being appointed as the President's science

在被任命為總統的科學顧問之前，他的工作是："我是一個很好的人。

advisor, Dr. Holdren spent most of his career as a

顧問，霍爾德倫博士在他的職業生涯中大部分時間都是作為一個顧問來工作的。

faculty member at the University of California,

加利福尼亞大學的教員。

Berkeley and Harvard, leading into disciplinary

伯克利大學和哈佛大學，導致進入紀律性的

programs focused on energy and technology and policy,

側重於能源、技術和政策的方案。

environmental change, nuclear arms control and

環境變化、核軍備控制和

non-proliferation, and science and

不擴散以及科學和技術問題

technology policy.

技術政策；

Gina McCarthy is administrator of the U.S.

吉娜-麥卡錫是美國的管理者。

Environmental Protection Agency,

環境保護局。

appointed by President Obama in 2009 as the assistant

2009年被奧巴馬總統任命為助理

administrator for EPA's Office of Air and Radiation.

環保局空氣和輻射辦公室的管理員。

She has been a leading advocate for common sense

她一直是常識的主要倡導者。

strategies to protect public health and environment.

保護公眾健康和環境的戰略；

Previously Administrator McCarthy served as

此前，麥卡錫署長曾擔任

commissioner of the Connecticut Department of

康涅狄格州警察局局長

Environmental Protection.

環境保護；

During her career which spans over 30 years she has

在她超過30年的職業生涯中，她曾經歷過

worked at both the state and local level on critical

在國家和地方兩級從事關鍵性的工作。

environmental issues and has helped to coordinate

環境問題，並幫助協調

policies on economic growth, energy, transportation,

關於經濟增長、能源、交通的政策。

and the environment.

和環境。

Please join me in welcoming them both to the stage to

請大家和我一起歡迎他們兩位上臺，為的是

start our discussion this afternoon.

開始我們今天下午的討論。

(applause)

(掌聲)

>> John Holdren: Well, thank you, Bob,

>>約翰-霍爾德倫。嗯，謝謝你，鮑勃。

and thanks to all of you for being here today.

並感謝大家今天的到來。

It's a pleasure to be up here with my friend and

很高興能和我的朋友一起上臺，也很高興能和你一起上臺。

colleague Gina McCarthy to talk about the new

的同事吉娜-麥卡錫談論新的。

scientific assessment of climate change and its

科學評估氣候變化及其對人類的影響

impacts on human health in the United States.

對美國人類健康的影響。

If not a whole of government effort,

如果不是政府的整體努力。

this was certainly a much of government effort with eight

這無疑是政府的一大努力，有八個

departments and agencies involved,

有關部門和機構。

over 100 scientists.

100多名科學家。

The leadership of the study came from EPA, from HHS,

研究的上司來自環保局，來自HHS。

from NOAA, all under the auspices,

從諾阿，都是在其主持下。

as Bob Simon has already mentioned, of the U.S.

正如鮑勃-西蒙已經提到的，美國。

Global Change Research Program and it really

全球變化研究計劃，它真的

demonstrates I think the capacity of the

我認為這表明了

U.S. Global Change Research Program not only to fund

美國全球變化研究計劃不僅要資助

research on aspects of global environmental change,

研究全球環境變化的各個方面；

but to convene experts from across the government

但要召集政府各部門的專家

to combine their knowledge, to assess critically what

結合他們的知識，批判性地評估什麼是真正的 "大數據"。

is out there in the literature, and then to

是有在文獻，然後到。

build on that with new analyses, new assessments,

在此基礎上進行新的分析、新的評估。

as this particular study has done.

正如這項特殊的研究所做的那樣。

Before we get into the details of this new

在我們瞭解這個新

assessment and hear from some of the authors and hear

評估，並聽取一些提交人的意見和建議。

some more from Administrator McCarthy about EPA's

一些更多從管理員麥卡錫關於環保局'的。

perspective on this work, I want to start by providing

我想首先從以下幾個方面介紹一下這項工作。

just a little bit of context in terms of what we actually

只是一點點的背景下，在什麼方面，我們實際上

know about climate change.

瞭解氣候變化；

Interestingly enough, understanding that

有趣的是，瞭解到

increasing the atmospheric concentration of carbon

增加大氣中的碳濃度

dioxide would influence the Earth's climate goes back

二氧化碳對地球氣候的影響可以追溯到公元前。

to the middle of the 1800s.

到19世紀中葉。

Some people imagine that this is a new idea;

有些人想象，這是一個新的想法。

it is not a new idea; it was recognized by farseeing

這不是一個新的想法，它被遠見卓識的人所認識。

scientists in the middle 1800s and the era in which

科學家在19世紀中葉和時代的。

the scientific community began to take on board

科學界開始接受

that this was not just a theoretical problem,

這不僅僅是一個理論問題。

but a real problem in the real world,

但卻是現實世界中的一個現實問題。

really began in the late '50s, early 1960s.

真正開始於'50年代末，60年代初。

So we've got basically 50 years of increasingly

是以，我們已經得到了基本上50年越來越多的

intense study of the climate change issue and those five

氣候變化問題的深入研究，以及這五點。

decades and more of intensive observation,

幾十年甚至更長時間的深入觀察。

monitoring, analysis, have led to the establishment of

監測、分析，已經建立起了。

I would say five crucial facts that are indeed today

我想說的是，今天確實有五個關鍵的事實。

established beyond reasonable doubt.

毋庸置疑地確定。

The first of those is that the Earth's climate is

其中第一個是地球的氣候是'的。

changing at a pace and in a pattern that is not

變化的速度和模式是不一樣的。

explainable by our well-understood,

可以用我們的好理解來解釋。

natural influences on climate.

氣候的自然影響；

Climate has been changing of course for millennia under a

幾千年來，氣候一直在變化，在一個

variety of natural influences.

各種自然影響。

Those are reasonably well-understood;

這些都是相當好理解的。

they do not explain what we have been seeing

他們不能解釋我們所看到的

in recent decades.

近幾十年來，。

A second fact is that what does indeed explain what we

第二個事實是，確實能解釋我們的。

have been seeing is the buildup of atmospheric

一直以來，我們看到的是大氣層的積聚。

carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases and

二氧化碳和其他蓄熱性氣體，以及

particles resulting from human activities,

人類活動產生的微粒；

primarily the combustion of fossil fuels and

主要是化石燃料的燃燒，和

land use change.

土地利用的變化；

The third fact established beyond reasonable doubt is

第三個不容置疑的事實是

that climate change is already causing harm to

氣候變化已經對人類造成傷害

people, to economies, and to ecosystems in many parts of

對許多地區的人民、經濟和生態系統的影響。

the world and we'll come back to that,

世界，我們'會回來的。

of course in the U.S.

當然在美國

context, in a minute.

語境，在一分鐘內。

The fourth fundamental fact is that that harm will

第四個基本事實是，這種危害將

continue to grow for some time to come,

在未來一段時間內繼續增長。

both because of the time lags and inertia built into

兩者都是由於時間滯後和慣性造成的。

the Earth's climate system, but also the inertia in

地球上的氣候系統，但也是慣性的。

civilization's energy system.

文明'的能源系統。

We are not able to transform civilization's

我們無法改造文明'的。

energy system overnight.

能源系統一夜之間。

The fifth insight, and this is very important,

第五個見解，這是非常重要的。

is that the amount of harm to be expected going forward

是指預期今後的損害量。

will be much smaller if society takes aggressive,

會小很多，如果社會採取積極。

effective action to limit the amount of harm than if

採取有效行動限制損害的程度，而不像其他國家那樣採取有效行動限制損害的程度。

we don't; big difference in the expected consequences

我們不';大的差異在預期的後果

based on the action that we do or do not take.

基於我們所做的或不做的行動。

The recent observed and measured changes in climate

最近觀測和測量到的氣候變化

around the world include a multi-decade increase in the

在全世界範圍內開展的活動包括：數十年來增加了大量新的活動，如："中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國"、"中國 "等。

global average surface air temperature,

全球平均地表溫度；

but they are not limited to that.

但他們並不限於此。

That's what most people talk about,

這'是大多數人談論的問題。

how many degrees warming have we seen,

我們已經看到了多少度的溫暖。

how many will we see, but in fact the changes also

我們會看到多少，但事實上，這些變化還

include increased temperatures in the ocean,

包括海洋溫度升高。

a decline in Arctic sea ice extent,

北極海冰面積減少；

accelerated sea level rise, increased moisture in the

海平面加速上升，海面溼度增加。

atmosphere accompanied by an increase in torrential

伴隨著暴雨的增加

downpours and associated flooding,

傾盆大雨和相關的洪水。

increased numbers of extremely hot

極度高溫的數量增加

days, and in some regions increases in drought,

天，部分地區旱情增加。

wildfire, and unusually powerful storms.

野火，以及異常強大的風暴。

The reality of those changes and the conclusion that

這些變化的現實和結論是

human influence on climate is the principal culprit

人類對氣候的影響是罪魁禍首。

rest on an enormous number of measurements and

基於大量的測量和

observations made by thousands of scientists at

數千名科學家的觀察結果

tens of thousands of locations around the world,

世界各地數萬個地點。

recorded in an enormous number of peer-reviewed

記載在大量的同行評議中。

publications and reviews of reviews of reviews of the

出版品和審查《公約》的審查報告

scientific validity of that body of work.

這些工作的科學有效性；

The key findings, the findings that I have just

主要的調查結果，也就是我剛才所說的調查結果。

summarized, have been endorsed by every major

歸納起來，已經得到了各大國的認可。

National Academy of Sciences in the world,

國家科學院在世界。

including those of China, India, Russia, Brazil,

包括中國、印度、俄羅斯、巴西的。

as well as that of the United States,

以及美國的情況。

have been endorsed by nearly every U.S.

幾乎得到了所有美國人的認可。

scientific professional society,

科學專業協會；

by the World Meteorological Organization,

由世界氣象組織提供。

by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on

聯合國政府間小組的報告

Climate Change, and by our own "Third National Climate

氣候變化，而由我國自己的"第三次國家氣候?

Assessment" which we released just two years ago.

評估"，我們在兩年前就發佈了。

Those changes have a broad range of impacts across many

這些變化對許多國家產生了廣泛的影響。

sectors of American society in virtually every region of

美國社會各階層幾乎每個地區的人都有。

the United States, as the "Third National Climate

美國作為"第三次國家氣候?

Assessment" documented, but now in the new report we

評估"的文件，但現在在新的報告中，我們。

have a fresh assessment of the impact of these changes

對這些變化的影響進行重新評估。

on an aspect of human well-being whose importance

人類福祉的一個方面，其重要性

everybody understands: that is human health.

大家都明白：這就是人類的健康。

The assessment that we are releasing today is based on

我們今天發佈的評估是基於

review and analysis of over 1, 800 peer-reviewed

審閱和分析1,800多份同行評議的報告。

publications, but also an overlay

出版品，但也是一種覆蓋

of additional study, analysis,

的補充研究、分析。

modeling, and conclusions that in turn have been

模型，並得出結論，而這些結論又被稱為 "模型"。

reviewed -- peer-reviewed by the National Academy of

由美國國家科學院進行同行評審。

Sciences, among others.

科學等。

So, Gina, let me turn to you as the head of the EPA and

所以，吉娜，讓我轉到你作為環保局的負責人，並。

ask you what kinds of impacts are we seeing from

問你，我們看到的是什麼影響？

climate change as recorded in this study that concern

本研究報告中所記錄的有關氣候變化的

you from a public health perspective?

你從公共衛生的角度？

>> Gina McCarthy: Well, John, thank you for

吉娜-麥卡錫。嗯，約翰，謝謝你

the introduction.

導讀：

I was going to say happy National Public Health Week,

我本來想說全國公共衛生周快樂。

but it sounds kind of like I shouldn't do that, but --

但這聽起來好像我不應該這麼做，但是 --

(laughter)

（笑聲）

-- it's not -- it's not unhappy

-- 它不是... 它不是不開心的事

news, because for the first time we really -- this

新聞，因為這是我們第一次真正的...

document provides a really comprehensive scientific

文件提供了一個真正全面的科學

foundation that will tell us what the damages,

地基，將告訴我們什麼損害。

what the concerns are with public health and climate in

對公共衛生和氣候的關切是什麼？

a way that it can feed into policy folks,

一種方式，它可以反饋到政策人員。

feed into government entities, NGOs,

為政府實體、非政府組織提供服務。

individuals who really want to know what the future is

真心想知道未來的人。

going to look like, what we're already seeing in

將會是什麼樣子，我們已經看到了在

terms of impacts, and what we might do to mitigate and

影響，以及我們可以採取什麼措施來緩解和解決這些問題。

adapt to those impacts, but this is the first time

適應這些影響，但這是第一次。

I think in history we've been able to really look at this

我想在歷史上，我們已經能夠真正看清這一點。

and show that it's not just about polar bears and

並顯示它不只是關於北極熊和。

melting ice caps.

融化的冰蓋。

>> Male Speaker: Yeah.

>>男發言人。是的。

>> Gina McCarthy: It's about our kids;

>>吉娜-麥卡錫。這是關於我們的孩子。

it's about families; it's about our future;

它'關於家庭；它'關於我們的未來。

it's about what our core value is and what

它是關於我們的核心價值是什麼，以及什麼？

we do to meet our moral responsibility to our kids

我們為履行對孩子們的道德責任而做的事情。

in that future.

在這個未來。

So this is a really great document to sink

所以，這是一份真正偉大的文件，可以沉澱一下

your teeth into.

你的牙齒成。

While you won't be reading happy news,

雖然你不會讀到喜訊。

if knowledge is power, we need it and that's what we

如果知識就是力量，我們需要它，這就是我們的目標

have here for the first time and, John, I want

第一次來這裡，約翰，我想...

to thank you for all of your leadership with the

感謝您對我們的上司。

team and also the folks at EPA, because

團隊和環保局的人，因為...

I can remember in 2013 when EPA was putting

我還記得2013年的時候，環保局在把

out our "Climate Indicators" report,

查看我們的"氣候指標"報告。

the one indicator that was the weakest was

最弱的一個指標是

the one that I wanted to be the strongest,

我想成為最強的那個人。

which was the public health indicators and we're all

這是公共衛生指標，我們都'。

sitting there, scratching our heads,

坐在那裡，搔首弄姿。

saying "How come you can talk about precipitation,

說"你怎麼能說降水。

intense storms, sea level rise" -- you know,

激烈的風暴，海平面上升"--你知道。

we could talk about a lot of those things,

我們可以談論很多這些事情。

but quantify none of the public health impacts

但沒有量化任何公共衛生影響。

directly and so it's been a remarkable journey over the

直接，所以它是一個非凡的旅程，在過去的

past two years to actually get this science under our

在過去的兩年裡，我們實際上已經把這種科學的東西

belt in a way that even the National Academies have

帶的方式，甚至連國家科學院都有

reviewed and provided input on.

審查並提供以下方面的意見：

So it's a -- it's a -- it's a great thing and frankly it

所以這是一個 -- 這是一個 -- 這是一個偉大的事情，坦率地說，它。

is a wakeup call, because there are a number of

是一個警鐘，因為有一些。

impacts that we are seeing here that we're already

我們在這裡看到的影響，我們'已

feeling and a number of impacts so that you can

感受和一些影響，這樣你就可以。

virtually see that every human being in every part of

幾乎可以看到，每一個人在每一個地區的每一個人