Today we're going to talk about international trade. So we all know our stuff is from everywhere.

我們今天要談的是國際貿易。我們都知道我們所買的東西來自世界各地

Bangladesh, China, Vietnam, China again,

孟加拉、中國、越南，又是中國

but what does it actually tell us about the global economy or the US economy?

但這告訴我們關於全球經濟或者美國經濟些什麼事情？

And who's is benefitting from all this trade. And who's gonna clean all this up?

且誰在這些貿易行為中受益？且誰會把這些清乾淨？

[Theme Music]

[主題音樂]

International trade is the lifeblood of the global economy. Basically when a good

國際貿易是全球經濟的命脈。基本上，舉例來說，當一樣商品

or service is produed in, let's say, Brazil and sold to a person or business in the

或服務在巴西被生產出來之後，賣給了美國的一位消費者或是企業

US, that counts as an export for Brazil and as an import from US. As you might

對巴西來說就是一筆出口，而對美國來說就是一筆進口貿易。你可能會想說

expect, the United States is the world's largest importer because Americans love

美國是全世界最大的進口國家，因為美國人喜歡購物

their stuff. In 2014 Americans import over two trillion dollars worth of stuff,

在2014年，美國進口超過兩兆美元的商品或服務

like oil cars and clothing from countries all over the world. And if you

從全世界個國家進口像是汽油、汽車和服飾等物品。而你若

look around your local big box store, it feels like everything is made in China.

去瞧瞧你家附近的大賣場，會發現好像所有東西都是中國製造的

And we do import a lot of things from China but in terms of both imports, and

而我們的確也從中國進口很多東西，但我們最大的出口國家

exports our largest trading partner's not China, it's Canada. The US and Canada trade

並非中國，而是加拿大。美國和加拿大

over six hundred billion dollars worth of goods and services each year.

每年貿易額超過6000億美元

The US imports a lot from Canada but exports almost as much. In fact, the United States is

美國從加拿大進出口額度幾乎差不多，量都很大。事實上，美國是

the world's second-largest exporter. It sells high-tech things like

世界上第二大出口國家。它銷售出高科技的產品像是

pharmaceuticals, jet turbines, generators and aircraft to countries all over the world.

藥品、噴射引擎扇葉、發電機以及航空器至世界各地的國家

It also exports intellectual goods like Kanye West albums and Pixar movies as

它也同時出口智慧財產商品像是Kanye West的專輯以及Pixar的電影

well as bulk commodities like corn, oil and cotton. The annual difference between

以及大宗貨物像是玉米、油品以及棉花等。每年每個國加的進出口

a country's exports and imports is called net exports. So if Brazil exports 250

貿易差額稱之為淨出口。所以若巴西出口2500億美元

billion dollars worth of goods and imports 200 billion that its net exports

等值的商品，進口2000億美元，其淨出口

are fifty billion. That means Brazil has a trade surplus. In 2014, net exports in

就是500億美元。這代表巴西有貿易盈餘。在2014年，美國的

the usmore negative 722 billion dollars. That's what you call a trade deficit.

淨出口值為負的7220億美元。這就是我們所稱的貿易赤字

Some people assume that having a trade deficit is inherently bad. Why does the

有些人假設若是貿易呈現赤字是不好的。為什麼

US import nearly all of clothing? Why can't we clote ourselves?

美國服飾幾乎都來自進口的呢？我們難道不能自己紡織服飾嗎？

US producers could easily make more than enough clothing to keep all of us

美國的製造商也許能夠很輕易地製作出足夠的衣物來滿足我們全部的

dressed. But they don't because they focus on other things that they're better at

需求。但他們並不選擇這麼做，因為他們專注於他們更擅長製作的

producing. The US buys clothes from other countries because we can get them

商品。美國從其他國家購買服飾商品的原因是我們能夠

cheaper than if we made them here. This is the value of international trade. It

從國外所製造的服飾以更便宜的價格買到。這就是國際貿易的利基所在

doesn't make sense to make everything on your own if you can trade with other

有時並非自己製造所有的商品比你與他人交易

countries that have a comparative advantage. It's worth mentioning here

自己擅長製造的商品來得合理。值得在這裡一提的是

that these savings sometimes come with other costs, especially for the people

這些儲蓄有時伴隨著其他的成本，特別是對於

who are producing these goods overseas. Unsafe and unfair working conditions, and

在海外生產商品的那些人而言是如此。不安全以及不公平的工作條件，以及

environmental degradation can be ugly side effects of

環境的破壞都是國際貿易可能帶來的醜陋的

internnational trade. And we're gonna talk about that. For today though let's get a handle

副作用。而我們要來談論這一塊。今天我們要來看

on trade deficits. It can seem like exporting would make a country wealthy

貿易赤字。似乎像是藉由「出口」能夠讓一個國家變得富有

while importing would make it poor. After all, if we buy products produced in other

而「進口」會讓國家變窮。畢竟，如果我們購買其他國家

countries than were shipping jobs overseas, right? Well only to an extent.

生產的商品就會讓工作外移，是這樣嗎？這個嘛，只會到某個程度

Imagine that I have a choice of buying an American made TV or a TV made in

試想我有兩個選擇，一個是美國製的電視與一個是馬來西亞製的

Malaysia. Because of lower labor costs in Malaysia the imported TV cost $200 less

由於馬來西亞的勞工成本比較低所以從馬國進口電視會比

than the American made one. So I buy the imported TV. That may cost jobs at a TV

購買美製電視要省200美元。所以我會買進口的電視。而這也許會造成

factory in the US but I saved $200 by buying the imported TV. And what am I

美國的電視製造工廠的工作消失，但相對地我因為買了進口電視而省了200美元。而我會

gonna do with those $200? I'm gonna spend them on something I couldn't have

怎麼處理那省下的200美元？我可能會花在我之前

afforded if I bought the US TV. Like maybe taking my family out to a baseball game

若是只有美製電視可以選擇的情況下不能負擔的物品上。像是我也許會帶我的家人去看棒球比賽

or to a restaurant. That creates jobs in those industries that wouldn't have

或者去餐廳吃飯。這也會讓因為只能購買相對貴的電視下

existed if I'd bought the more expensive TV. Economic theory suggests that

原本無法存在的這些產業的工作機會增加。經濟理論暗示說

international trade reshuffles jobs from one sector of the economy to another, like

國際貿易讓經濟體中某個產業的工作重新洗牌，像是

from the TV factory to the restaurant. But the quality of these jobs can be

從電視工廠移往餐廳等等。但是這些工作的品質內容

markedly different. The guy assembling TVs at the US factory was probably

可能相去甚遠。在美國工廠中組裝電視的工人也許

making a lot more at his manufacturing job before he got reshuffled to the burrito

在他的工作被重新洗牌，去墨西哥大玉米餅快餐店包裝捲餅之前

assembly line at Chipotle. Which is just to say all this is really complicated

能夠賺很多。這是一個真的相當複雜的

and what is good in the aggregate is not necessarily good for individuals. For

且整體來說並不必然對於個人是一定好的現象。舉例來說

example, look at the North American Free Trade Agreement or NAFTA. It was

北美自由貿易協定或NAFTA，成立於

established in 1994 to drop trade barriers between Canada, the United

1994年，主要是要降低墨西哥、美國以及加拿大之間的

States and Mexico. Critics point out that NAFTA significantly increased US trade

貿易障礙。但許多評論指出NAFTA使得美國的貿易赤字顯著增加

deficits and they say it decreased the number of manufacturing jobs in many

且他們說NAFTA使得許多州之內的製造業工作機會

states, as companies moved out of the US. Proponents of free trade point out that

隨著公司企業外移而減少。許多支持自由貿易的人士指出

the US economy boomed in the 1990's, creating millions of jobs including manufacturing jobs, and that free trade

美國經濟在1990年代快速成長，創造出包含製造業在內數以百萬計的工作機會，且自由貿易

has decreased the prices of all sorts of consumer goods, from vegetables to cars. So despite the fact

使得從蔬菜到車子等各種消費性產品的價格降低。所以儘管事實上

that some workers and industries were clearly hurt, economist would tell us

有些工人以及產業的利益明顯被傷害，經濟學家仍會告訴我們

NAFTA's had a net positive impact on all three countries. By the way, you know

NAFTA對這三個國家具有淨正向影響。

Thought café, the makers of the Thought Bubble? They're Canadian. These

Thought cafe，Thought Bubble的製造者？他們是加拿大人。這些

graphics are imported. The debate over the value of specific trade agreements

動畫就是進口的產品。大家對於特定的貿易協定的

continues. But it's unlikely that the world's largest economies will return to

價值爭論持續不斷。但要全世界最大的經濟體走回保護主義

strict protectionism. Protectionist policy, like placing high tariffs on

路線似乎也不太可能。保護主義人士的政策，像是加很高的

imports and limiting the number of foreign goods, usually hurts an economy

進口關稅以及限制外國商品的數量等，通常會對一個經濟體來說

more than it helps. There are now several organizations designed to eradicate

是弊大於利。現在有一些組織是專門來消除

protectionism, most notably the World Trade Organization or WTO. The WTO has been

保護主義的，它們之中最有名的為世界貿易組織或稱WTO。WTO已經

effective in getting countries to agree to specific rules and help settle

在讓許多國家對特定的規範達到共識且協助平息

disputes but it's also been accused of favouring rich countries and not doing

爭端，但也被指控其有偏袒富裕國家且對於環境和勞工們

enough to protect the environment or workers. Trade between countries depends

沒有做到足夠的保護。國家間的貿易是以

on the demand for a country's goods, political stability and interest rates,

對於一個國家商品的需求、政治穩定度以及利率決定的

but one of the most important factors is exchange rates. Basically this is how

但其中一個最重要的因素為匯率。基本上這是你國家的幣值

much your currency is worth when you trade it for another country's currency.

在交易的當下另一個國家的幣值而言有多少價值

And let's engage in some foreign trade now by going to the Thought Bubble. Suppose the

讓我們來看Thought Bubble對一些國外交易的描述。假設

US-Mexico exchange rate is 15 pesos to the dollar. If an American's on vacation in Mexico and wants to

美國-墨西哥之間的匯率是15 披索兌換1美元，如果以個美國人在墨西哥度假且

buy some sunscreen that cost 60 pesos, they'll have to trade four dollars for pesos. Likewise if someone from

想要買個60披索的防曬油，他們就需要先以4美元交換等值的披索。像是如果某人從

Mexico is on vacation in the US and wants to buy a $20 t-shirt she will need to exchange 300 pesos for

墨西哥到美國度假且想要買一件20塊美金的t-shirt，她會需要先交換 300披索等值的

dollars. Now one let's think about what happens if the exchange rate goes up to twenty

美元。現在來看如果匯率攀升到 20披索兌換

pesos per dollar. Now to buy that 50 peso sunscreen in mexico it'll cost the American

1 美元會發生什麼事。現在那個在墨西哥度假的美國人只要花三塊美金

tourist $3 instead of four. We say that the dollar has appreciated. At the same

而不是原本的四塊美金就可以買到那個防曬油。我們會說美元升值。於此

time the Mexican tourist who wants to buy the $20 t-shirt will need four

同時墨西哥到美國旅遊的觀光客就需要以 400 披索而不是原本的 300披索

hundred pesos instead of 300. It works the same way with imports and exports.

才能買到原本20美金的t-shirt。這在進出口買賣時也是如此

When the dollar appreciates, it gets cheaper for US consumers to import

當美金升值，使得美國的消費者能以更低的價錢進口

foreign goods, and US exports to other countries get more expensive. US imports

國外商品，而美國的出口貨物到了外國價格就變得更貴。美國進口

rise and export fall. On the other hand

增加而出口衰退。另一方面

what if the exchange rate fell to 10 pesos per dollar? Now to buy that

若是變成10披索兌換一美元的狀況呢？現在美國的觀光客

sunscreen, the american tourist needs $6. Each dollar has gotten less powerful. We

在墨西哥要買一條防曬乳要六塊美金了。每一塊美金能購買的東西變少了。我們

say that the dollar has depreciated. At the same time, the Mexican tourist who

會說美金貶值了。與此同時，墨西哥到美國的觀光客

wants to buy the $20 t-shirt needs only two hundred pesos. So when the dollar

就能夠只用兩披索買到20美元一件的t-shirt了。所以當美金

depreciates, foreign imports get more expensive which means they fall, and US

貶值，國外進口商品就變得更貴，也就是進口會減少，而美國

exports to other countries get cheaper which means they rise.

出口到別的國家的商品價格就會變得更便宜而增加

Most currencies, like the peso and the dollar have floating exchange rates that

大多數的貨幣，像是美元和披索都使以浮動匯率制存在

change based on supply and demand. Like when the US imports more products from

主要受到供需法則的調控。像是當美國從墨西哥進口更多的

Mexico, they exchange dollars for pesos. This will increase the demand for pesos,

商品，他們會以美金換披索。也就會增加披索的需求

and peso will appreciate. At the same time, the dollar will depreciate. Now some

而披索就會升值。同時，美金貶值。現在某些

countries have elected to peg their currency to another currency. This is

國家選擇盯住匯率制度。意思就是

when a country's central bank wants to keep the exchange rate in a certain

當一個國家的中央銀行想要自己國家的貨幣與特定國家的

range, and they buy or sell currencies to keep it in that range. The Chinese

貨幣匯率在一個範圍內，就會為了保持在這個範圍內而進行外匯的買賣。

government was well known for buying US dollars to keep the Chinese currency

中國政府以盯住美元匯率而讓人民幣

artificially depreciated. When the US's importing goods from China, the yuan

進行人為變質的操控著稱。當美國從中國進口商品，人民幣就

would appreciate. Than the Chinese government would turn around and buy

會升值。而中國政府就會購買美元

dollars which kept the exchange rate about the same. This kept Chinese exports

以保持匯率在一個範圍之中。這就能使得中國出口貿易

cheap for Americans. Up to this point, we focused on exporting and importing goods

價格對美國來說落在便宜的位置。至此，我們聚焦在進出口商品和服務

and services but there's a whole other side of international trade that involves

但是還有牽涉到財政資產相關的

financial assets. Let's look at something called the balance of payments. It might

國際貿易的諸多面相尚未探討。我們來看所謂的收支平衡。這可能聽起來

feel more like accounting than economics, but it helps to show how flows of money and

感覺更像是會計學而非經濟學，但這能夠幫助我們將金流以及物流、服務流動

flows of goods and services are opposite sides of the same coin. Every country

這一體兩面的概念具象化。每個國家

keeps an accounting statement called the balance of payments that records all

都保有一個會計帳稱為國際收支平衡表，上面記載所有的

international transactions. It's made up of two sub-accounts, the current account

國際交易。這是由兩個子帳目組成，分別為經常帳

and the financial account, sometimes called the capital account. The current

以及金融帳，有時叫做資本帳。經常帳

account records the sale and purchase of goods and services, investment income

會記錄銷售和商品、服務的採購、海外投資收入

earned abroad, and other transfers like donations and foreign aid. So when the US buys

以及其他像是捐款以及國外資助等的帳目轉動。所以當美國買了

fifty billion dollars of computers from China, that's recorded in the US current

中國價值550億美元的電腦設備，美國的經常帳上就會

account. So this is a simplification, but when Americans spend money on Chinese

有記錄。這是個簡化的例子，但當美國人花錢買中國的

goods, the people in China, in theory, have only two things they can do with that

商品，理論上在中國的人們會有兩個方式去處理這筆錢

money. They can buy US goods, or they can buy US financial assets, like stocks and

他們可以買美國的商品，或者買美國的金融資產，像是股票和債券

bonds. These transactions are recorded in the other side of account, the financial

這些交易都會被記載在金融帳上

account. There is a reason why the flow of goods and the flow of money are

商品流與金流有對稱性的原因在於

symmetric. If consumers, businesses, and government want to buy more stuff than their

如果消費者、企業以及政府想要買比自己國家生產的商品更多數量的東西時

country is producing domestically, they have to import it. So there's a trade deficit. That country has to sell

就比需靠進口。所以會有個貿易赤字存在。國家必須要

assets to pay for those imports, and that's recorded in the financial account. The United

去賣資產來負清這些進口的金額，而這些會記錄在金融帳上。美國

States has a very low savings rate which means it's consuming everything it's

有非常低的儲蓄率，也就是說，他們幾乎將

producing and it sells assets to pay for the additional output it brings in from

他們所有製造生產的東西以及資產變賣以支付額外從國外進口的

overseas. Americans are choosing to run a trade deficit. International trade, like

東西。美國人選擇去承擔貿易赤字。國際貿易，跟其他

everything else in economics, is about trade-offs and choices and winners and

所有在經濟學理的東西一樣，都與交易和選擇以及贏家和

losers. In purely economic terms trade deficits and surpluses are the result of

輸家有關。在純經濟術語中，貿易赤字和貿易盈餘都是

people and nations seeking their own self-interests. But while everyone is

人們和國家為了追求他們自己的利益的結果。但當每個人

acting in the self-interested way, international trade doesn't always meet

都已滿足自身利益為出發點，國際貿易就不總是

our individual interests. What might be good for the wider global economy, might

會符合我們個人的利益。對於泛全球貿易也許是有益的，也許

be really bad for me or my hometown. But in the aggregate, trade does improve the

對於我或者我的家鄉是很不好的。但總體來說，交易的確改善了

global standard of living. It's just sometimes hard to see up close. Thanks for watching, we'll see you next week.

全球的生活水準。這有時很難清楚的看見。感謝收看，我們很快會再見

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