that you're a soldier in the heat of battle.

如果你是一個在激烈戰鬥中的士兵

Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier or a medieval archer

也許你是個羅馬步兵，或是一個中世紀的弓箭手

or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.

或是個祖魯族的戰士

Regardless of your time and place, there are some things that are constant.

撇開時間和地點，有一些事情是不變的

Your adrenaline is elevated,

就是你的腎上腺素會飆高

and your actions are stemming from these deeply ingrained reflexes,

你的行為是源自於根深蒂固的反射作用

reflexes rooted in a need to protect yourself and your side

反射出自於你要保護自己和你的這一方

and to defeat the enemy.

並且打敗敵人

So now, I'd like you to imagine playing a very different role,

現在，我請你轉換成一個很不一樣的角色

that of the scout.

成為一個偵查兵

The scout's job is not to attack or defend.

偵查兵的職責不是去攻擊或防禦

The scout's job is to understand.

偵查兵的職責是去瞭解

The scout is the one going out,

偵查兵是要出去

mapping the terrain, identifying potential obstacles.

觀察附近的地形地貌，找出潛在的阻礙

And the scout may hope to learn that, say, there's a bridge

他也許希望找到附近有一座

in a convenient location across a river.

橫跨溪流的橋

But above all, the scout wants to know what's really there,

但最重要的是，偵查兵要知道那裡到底有什麼

as accurately as possible.

而且要儘可能的正確

And in a real, actual army, both the soldier and the scout are essential.

在真正的軍隊裡，戰鬥士兵和偵查兵都是不可或缺的

But you can also think of each of these roles as a mindset --

但你也可以把這兩種角色看成是

a metaphor for how all of us process information and ideas

比喻我們日常生活中處理各種訊息和觀念

in our daily lives.

所抱持的不同心態

What I'm going to argue today is that having good judgment,

我今天要強調的是，良好的判斷力

making accurate predictions, making good decisions,

正確的預測，最好的決定

is mostly about which mindset you're in.

都源自於你有什麼樣的心態

So, to illustrate these mindsets in action,

為了說明得更具體一點

I'm going to take you back to 19th-century France,

我要帶你們回到十九世紀的法國

where this innocuous-looking piece of paper

一張看似平淡無奇的文件

launched one of the biggest political scandals in history.

卻揭發了史上一樁著名的醜聞

It was discovered in 1894 by officers in the French general staff.

這張文件是在1894年被法國參謀本部的軍官發現的

It was torn up in a wastepaper basket,

它被撕碎扔在垃圾桶裡

but when they pieced it back together,

當這張紙被拼湊還原後

they discovered that someone in their ranks

他們發現在同級的軍官之中有人

had been selling military secrets to Germany.

祕密將武器賣給德國

So they launched a big investigation,

於是他們展開了大規模的調查

and their suspicions quickly converged on this man,

很快地懷疑都聚焦在這個人身上

Alfred Dreyfus.

阿弗雷德·德雷福斯

He had a sterling record,

他有優良的紀錄

no past history of wrongdoing, no motive as far as they could tell.

未曾犯過錯，調查人員找不出他有犯案的動機

But Dreyfus was the only Jewish officer at that rank in the army,

但德雷福斯是軍官中唯一的猶太人

and unfortunately at this time, the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.

很不幸在當時法國軍方是強烈反猶太人的

They compared Dreyfus's handwriting to that on the memo

他們比對文件和德雷福斯的筆跡

and concluded that it was a match,

所得的結論是兩者相符

even though outside professional handwriting experts

雖然外部的的筆跡鑑定專家

were much less confident in the similarity,

對是否相符仍有存疑

but never mind that.

但是軍方置之不理

They went and searched Dreyfus's apartment,

他們搜索德雷福斯的家

looking for any signs of espionage.

想找出他是間諜的蛛絲馬跡

They went through his files, and they didn't find anything.

他們翻遍了他的檔案，結果一無所獲

This just convinced them more that Dreyfus was not only guilty,

但是他們卻因此更認定德雷福斯不但有罪

but sneaky as well, because clearly he had hidden all of the evidence

而且狡猾，因為很明顯的，他在軍方來搜索之前就把所有的證據

before they had managed to get to it.

全部都藏起來了

Next, they went and looked through his personal history

接著，他們查看他的個人紀錄

for any incriminating details.

想找出罪證

They talked to his teachers,

他們訪談他的老師

they found that he had studied foreign languages in school,

發現他在學校的時候曾經學習外語

which clearly showed a desire to conspire with foreign governments

這很清楚顯示他打算在日後與外國政府

later in life.

密謀的企圖

His teachers also said that Dreyfus was known for having a good memory,

他的老師還說阿弗雷德有很強的記憶力

which was highly suspicious, right?

這點也很可疑，對吧？

You know, because a spy has to remember a lot of things.

因為一個間諜要記住很多東西靠的就是記憶力

So the case went to trial, and Dreyfus was found guilty.

於是案子進入審判，德雷福斯被判有罪

Afterwards, they took him out into this public square

之後，他們把他帶到一個公共廣場

and ritualistically tore his insignia from his uniform

用公開的儀式拔除他的軍階

and broke his sword in two.

並將他的配劍折斷

This was called the Degradation of Dreyfus.

這被稱為德雷福斯貶降的羞辱

And they sentenced him to life imprisonment

他們並將他判處終身監禁

on the aptly named Devil's Island,

關在一個叫做魔鬼島的地方

which is this barren rock off the coast of South America.

位在南美洲海岸外的荒蕪之地

So there he went, and there he spent his days alone,

他被遣送到那哩，孤獨的一個人渡日

writing letters and letters to the French government

他不斷寫信給法國政府

begging them to reopen his case so they could discover his innocence.

哀求他們重啟調查這個案子來還他清白

But for the most part, France considered the matter closed.

但是法國政府多認為案子已經結案了

One thing that's really interesting to me about the Dreyfus Affair

我對德雷福斯事件最感興趣的一點

is this question of why the officers were so convinced

就是這些官員為何如此肯定

that Dreyfus was guilty.

的德雷福斯是有罪

I mean, you might even assume that they were setting him up,

我是說，你也許會推測他是被設計的

that they were intentionally framing him.

他們故意要陷害他

But historians don't think that's what happened.

但是歷史學家們並不這麼認為

As far as we can tell,

就我們所知

the officers genuinely believed that the case against Dreyfus was strong.

這些官員真的相信德雷福斯罪證確鑿

Which makes you wonder:

這會讓你疑惑

What does it say about the human mind

對於人類的這種思維

that we can find such paltry evidence

用這麼微不足道的證據

to be compelling enough to convict a man?

就可以將人羅織入罪

Well, this is a case of what scientists call "motivated reasoning."

就是可學家所謂的「動機性推理」

It's this phenomenon in which our unconscious motivations,

這是一種現象，因為出自於慾望或是恐懼

our desires and fears,

而下意識的

shape the way we interpret information.

影響了我們對資訊主觀的判斷

Some information, some ideas, feel like our allies.

如果一些訊息，想法，好像是和我們的理念一致

We want them to win. We want to defend them.

我們就會為它辯護

And other information or ideas are the enemy,

其他的訊息，想法，就變成我們的敵人

and we want to shoot them down.

我們就要擊敗它

So this is why I call motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."

這就為什麼我把「動機性推理」稱做「士兵心態」

Probably most of you have never persecuted

可能你們大部份的人都不曾為了叛國的罪名

a French-Jewish officer for high treason,

去迫害一個猶太裔的法國軍官

I assume,

這是我的推測

but maybe you've followed sports or politics, so you might have noticed

但是也許你會關心運動或是政治，你可能已注意到

that when the referee judges that your team committed a foul,

當裁判吹你支持的球隊犯規

for example,

我只是舉例

you're highly motivated to find reasons why he's wrong.

你會有很強的動機找出理由來證明裁判是錯的

But if he judges that the other team committed a foul -- awesome!

但是如國裁判吹對方犯規─太棒了！

That's a good call, let's not examine it too closely.

判的好，不用追究了

Or, maybe you've read an article or a study

或者是，如果你看過一篇文章或研究報告

that examined some controversial policy,

內容是檢討一些具爭議性的政策

like capital punishment.

像是死刑

And, as researchers have demonstrated,

而且研究人員已經有清楚的論證

if you support capital punishment

如果你支持死刑

and the study shows that it's not effective,

而研究報告說體罰是無效的

then you're highly motivated to find all the reasons

於是你會想辦法找各種理由

why the study was poorly designed.

來證明這研究是錯誤的

But if it shows that capital punishment works,

但如果研究說死刑是有效的

it's a good study.

你就會認為這個研究做得很好

And vice versa: if you don't support capital punishment, same thing.

反之亦然，如果你不支持死刑，你的心態也是一樣的

Our judgment is strongly influenced, unconsciously,

我們想要的結果，不自覺地，

by which side we want to win.

嚴重的影響了我們的判斷

And this is ubiquitous.

這是普遍存在的現象

This shapes how we think about our health, our relationships,

這個現象塑造了我們對於健康、人際關係的看法

how we decide how to vote,

我們的政治傾向

what we consider fair or ethical.

我們對公平或道德的價值觀

What's most scary to me about motivated reasoning

「動機性推理」或「士兵心態」讓我感到

or soldier mindset,

最可怕之處

is how unconscious it is.

在於我們是如此的不自覺

We can think we're being objective and fair-minded

使我們認為自己是很客觀，很公平

and still wind up ruining the life of an innocent man.

像一個單純的人

However, fortunately for Dreyfus, his story is not over.

然而，德雷福斯運氣不錯，他的故事並沒有結束

This is Colonel Picquart.

這是帕卡德上校

He's another high-ranking officer in the French Army,

他是法國軍隊裡的另一名高階軍官

and like most people, he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.

如同其他人，他也認為德雷福斯是有罪的

Also like most people in the army, he was at least casually anti-Semitic.

也和軍中大多數人一樣，他或多或少也是反猶太人的

But at a certain point, Picquart began to suspect:

但是有一天，帕卡德開始有了疑問

"What if we're all wrong about Dreyfus?"

「如果我們冤枉了德雷福斯怎麼辦？」

What happened was, he had discovered evidence

結果是，他發現了證據

that the spying for Germany had continued,

證明德國的間諜活動並沒有因為

even after Dreyfus was in prison.

德雷福斯被捕而停止

And he had also discovered that another officer in the army

他也發現軍中的另一名軍官

had handwriting that perfectly matched the memo,

有著符合那張紙上的筆跡

much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.

相似程度更高過德雷福斯

So he brought these discoveries to his superiors,

於是他將些證據向長官呈報

but to his dismay, they either didn't care

令人失望的是，他的長官們不是漠不關心

or came up with elaborate rationalizations to explain his findings,

就是精心編織一些理由來合理化他的證據

like, "Well, all you've really shown, Picquart, is that there's another spy

例如，「帕卡德，你的證據清楚的告訴我們，有另外一個間諜

who learned how to mimic Dreyfus's handwriting,

他會模仿德雷福斯的筆跡，

and he picked up the torch of spying after Dreyfus left.

在德雷福斯被抓以後就由他來繼續接手間諜的工作

But Dreyfus is still guilty."

但是德雷福斯仍然是有罪的」

Eventually, Picquart managed to get Dreyfus exonerated.

最後，帕卡德經過了十年的努力才成功的

But it took him 10 years,

幫助德雷福斯脫罪

and for part of that time, he himself was in prison

其中有一段時間，他自己也被關進監獄

for the crime of disloyalty to the army.

罪名是對軍方不忠誠

A lot of people feel like Picquart can't really be the hero of this story

很多人認為帕卡德不該是這個故事裡的英雄

because he was an anti-Semite and that's bad, which I agree with.

因為他反猶太人，這是不好的，我同意這種說法。

But personally, for me, the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic

但是我個人認為，帕卡德反猶太人這個事實

actually makes his actions more admirable,

正足以證明他的行為令人敬佩

because he had the same prejudices, the same reasons to be biased

因為他和其他人有一樣的偏見，和他軍中同儕一樣有著

as his fellow officers,

相同的理由來偏頗的看待這個案子

but his motivation to find the truth and uphold it trumped all of that.

但是他堅持追求真相的動機超越了這些偏見

So to me,

對我而言

Picquart is a poster child for what I call "scout mindset."

帕卡德是我所謂的「偵查兵心態」的典範

It's the drive not to make one idea win or another lose,

它的動機不是要證明這個對那個錯

but just to see what's really there

而是要追求事實的真相

as honestly and accurately as you can,

儘可能的誠實而且正確

even if it's not pretty or convenient or pleasant.

即便遭遇不美好、不順利或不愉快也會堅持下去

This mindset is what I'm personally passionate about.

這種心態也是我最鍾情的