Name: 【TEDx】就算你是錯的，為什麼你還是覺得你是對的 (Why "scout mindset" is crucial to good judgment | Julia Galef | TEDxPSU)
Uploaded: 2016-08-10T21:59:58.000Z
Duration: 11 min 46 s

that you are a soldier in the heat of battle.

Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier or a medieval archer

你可能是一位羅馬步兵或是中世紀的弓箭手

Your adrenalin is elevated, and your actions are stemming

你的腎上腺素提高了，然後你的行動都被

那根深蒂固地本能反應左右著。

Reflexes rooted in a need to protect yourself and your side

本能之所以存在，是為了保護你自己還有你的同伴，

So now I'd like you to imagine playing a very different role.

那現在我想請大家再想像一下，當自己扮演另一個非常不同的角色。

So the scout's job is not to attack or defend.

偵察兵的任務並不是去攻擊也不是防禦。

mapping the terrain, identifying potential obstacles,

描繪周遭地形、辨認潛在障礙，

and the scout may hope to learn that say, there's a bridge

當然，偵察兵可能會希望自己只要說

in a convenient location across the river.

前方有座橋位在利於過河的位置。

But above all, the scout wants to know what's really there

但整體來說，偵察兵要知道那裏到底有什麼

both the soldier and the scout are essential.

But you can also think of each of these roles as a mindset.

不過你也可以把這些角色想像成一種心態。

A metaphor for how all of us process information

它像是一種隱喻，描述人類如何在日常生活裡處理訊息

And what I'm going to argue today is that having good judgment,

所以我今天想要討論的事情是，不論是做出好的判斷、

and making accurate predictions, making good decisions

準確地做出預測、或是產出好的決定，

大部分都與你所處的心態有關。

So, to illustrate these mindsets in action,

所以，當我們想把這些心態在現實中闡明，

I'm going to take you back to 19th century France

我需要帶大家回到十九世紀的法國，

where this innocuous looking piece of paper launched

one of the biggest political scandals in history.

引發史上最大的政治醜聞之一。

由一群法國參謀總部的軍官所發現。

And it was torn up in a wastepaper basket

它當時原本只是一堆在廢紙簍中的廢紙，

but when they pieced it back together, they discovered

但是，當官兵們將其拼湊完整後，

that someone in their ranks had been selling military secrets

發現在他們同樣階級的軍官裡，有人一直在販賣軍事機密

所以，他們展開大規模的調查，

這個人，艾伯特 ● 德雷福斯，有著最大的嫌疑。

基本上他們找不出任何的犯罪動機。

But Dreyfus was the only Jewish officer at that rank in the Army

不過，德雷福斯是當時在軍中唯一一位，符合嫌疑人軍階的猶太軍官，

法國軍隊是非常地反猶太人的。

So they compared Dreyfus's handwriting to that on the memo

所以他們將德雷福斯的筆跡與那張備忘錄上的比對

Even though outside professional handwriting experts

were much less confident in the similarity, but never mind that.

對於鑑定結果都不敢打包票，不過沒關係。

They went and searched Dreyfus's apartment

試圖尋找與間諜有關的一絲證據。

They went through his files and they didn't find anything.

他們翻遍了他的所有文件，卻都一無所獲。

And this just convinced them more that Dreyfus was not only guilty,

但這一切卻更讓他們堅信，德雷福斯不只是有罪，

but sneaky as well, because clearly he had hidden all of the evidence

而且還很狡猾。因為很明顯地，他趕在他們搜查前，

Next, they went and looked through his personal history

緊接著，他們轉向搜查他的私人紀錄，

They found that he had studied foreign languages in school

發現德雷福斯曾在學校修習外語，

which clearly showed a desire to conspire with foreign governments

很明顯地展現未來與外國政府合謀的

His teachers also said that Dreyfus had a good memory

他的老師們更說德雷福斯有著絕佳的記憶力，

同樣地，聽起來很可疑，對吧？

You know, because a spy has to remember a lot of things.

你知道的，因為間諜要有能力記住很多事情。

So, the case went to trial and Dreyfus was found guilty.

所以，這件案子進入審判後，法官判德雷福斯有罪。

And afterwards they took him out into this public square

之後他們把德雷福斯帶到市民廣場，

and ritualistically tore his insignia from his uniform

儀式般地將他的肩章從制服上摘除，

This is called the degradation of Dreyfus.

And they sentenced him to life imprisonment

到那個同樣名為"惡魔"的島上服刑，

which is this barren rock off the coast of South America.

那是一座位在南美海岸的荒蕪之島。

And there he spent his days alone writing letters

被單獨監禁的每一天，他不斷地

begging them to reopen his case so they could discover his innocence.

懇求政府能夠重新調查他的案子以還他清白。

But for the most part, France considered the matter closed.

不過基本上，法國政府認為這件事情已經結案了。

So one thing that's really interesting to me

但在這裡，針對這個德雷福斯事件，

about the Dreyfus Affair is this question

有一個問題讓我覺得很有意思就是，

I mean you might even assume that they were setting him up.

我的意思是，你甚至可以假設其實是這些軍官陷害他的。

but historians don't think that's what happened.

As far as we can tell, the officers genuinely believed

就我們所了解的，這些軍官是真的相信

that the case against Dreyfus was strong.

對於德雷福斯的指控是強而有力的。

Which you know, makes you wonder what does it say

但是這也會讓你開始思考，當我們能用

about the human mind that we can find such paltry evidence

如此微薄的證據去強定一個人的罪時，

to be compelling enough to convict a man?

我們該如何解釋這其中的心理運作？

Well, this is a case of what scientists call

It's this phenomenon which our unconscious motivations,

這種心理現象描述人類在理解資訊時，

our desires and fears shape the way we interpret information.

會受到潛意識的動機、慾望以及恐懼所影響。

So some information, some ideas feel like our allies

所以有些讓人感覺是屬同盟的資訊及想法，

And other information or ideas are the enemy

然後把其他訊息與想法視為敵人，