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  • So, I'd like you to imagine for a moment

    好,我想請大家先想像一下

  • that you are a soldier in the heat of battle.

    你是一位身處戰場的士兵。

  • Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier or a medieval archer

    你可能是一位羅馬步兵或是中世紀的弓箭手

  • or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.

    也可能是祖魯族的戰士。

  • Regardless of your time and place,

    不管你身處的年代與空間,

  • there are some things that are constant.

    有些事情是一樣的。

  • Your adrenalin is elevated, and your actions are stemming

    你的腎上腺素提高了,然後你的行動都被

  • from these deeply ingrained reflexes.

    那根深蒂固地本能反應左右著。

  • Reflexes rooted in a need to protect yourself and your side

    本能之所以存在,是為了保護你自己還有你的同伴,

  • and to defeat the enemy.

    以及打敗敵人。

  • So now I'd like you to imagine playing a very different role.

    那現在我想請大家再想像一下,當自己扮演另一個非常不同的角色。

  • That of the scout.

    那就是偵察兵。

  • So the scout's job is not to attack or defend.

    偵察兵的任務並不是去攻擊也不是防禦。

  • The scout's job is to understand.

    他的工作是去了解敵情。

  • The scout is the one going out,

    偵察兵是那個在戰場上奔走,

  • mapping the terrain, identifying potential obstacles,

    描繪周遭地形、辨認潛在障礙,

  • and the scout may hope to learn that say, there's a bridge

    當然,偵察兵可能會希望自己只要說

  • in a convenient location across the river.

    前方有座橋位在利於過河的位置。

  • But above all, the scout wants to know what's really there

    但整體來說,偵察兵要知道那裏到底有什麼

  • as accurately as possible.

    並了解的越仔細越好。

  • And in a real actual army,

    在現實生活中的部隊裡,

  • both the soldier and the scout are essential.

    士兵與偵察兵都很重要。

  • But you can also think of each of these roles as a mindset.

    不過你也可以把這些角色想像成一種心態。

  • A metaphor for how all of us process information

    它像是一種隱喻,描述人類如何在日常生活裡處理訊息

  • and ideas in our daily lives.

    以及各種想法。

  • And what I'm going to argue today is that having good judgment,

    所以我今天想要討論的事情是,不論是做出好的判斷、

  • and making accurate predictions, making good decisions

    準確地做出預測、或是產出好的決定,

  • is mostly about which mindset you're in.

    大部分都與你所處的心態有關。

  • So, to illustrate these mindsets in action,

    所以,當我們想把這些心態在現實中闡明,

  • I'm going to take you back to 19th century France

    我需要帶大家回到十九世紀的法國,

  • where this innocuous looking piece of paper launched

    當時就是因為這張普通的紙

  • one of the biggest political scandals in history.

    引發史上最大的政治醜聞之一。

  • It was discovered in 1894 by officers

    這張紙是在1894年時,

  • in the French general staff.

    由一群法國參謀總部的軍官所發現。

  • And it was torn up in a wastepaper basket

    它當時原本只是一堆在廢紙簍中的廢紙,

  • but when they pieced it back together, they discovered

    但是,當官兵們將其拼湊完整後,

  • that someone in their ranks had been selling military secrets

    發現在他們同樣階級的軍官裡,有人一直在販賣軍事機密

  • to Germany.

    給德軍。

  • So they launched a big investigation

    所以,他們展開大規模的調查,

  • and their suspicions quickly converged

    然後他們很快地發現,

  • on this man, Albert Dreyfus.

    這個人,艾伯特 ● 德雷福斯,有著最大的嫌疑。

  • He had a sterling record.

    他有著優良的紀錄。

  • No past history of wrongdoing,

    在過去也沒有任何過失,

  • no motive as far as they could tell.

    基本上他們找不出任何的犯罪動機。

  • But Dreyfus was the only Jewish officer at that rank in the Army

    不過,德雷福斯是當時在軍中唯一一位,符合嫌疑人軍階的猶太軍官,

  • and unfortunately, at this time,

    並且很不巧的是,當時的

  • the French army was highly anti-semitic.

    法國軍隊是非常地反猶太人的。

  • So they compared Dreyfus's handwriting to that on the memo

    所以他們將德雷福斯的筆跡與那張備忘錄上的比對

  • and concluded that it was a match.

    並認定那就是他的字跡。

  • Even though outside professional handwriting experts

    即便軍方以外的字跡專家

  • were much less confident in the similarity, but never mind that.

    對於鑑定結果都不敢打包票,不過沒關係。

  • They went and searched Dreyfus's apartment

    他們搜索德雷福斯的公寓,

  • looking for any signs of espionage.

    試圖尋找與間諜有關的一絲證據。

  • They went through his files and they didn't find anything.

    他們翻遍了他的所有文件,卻都一無所獲。

  • And this just convinced them more that Dreyfus was not only guilty,

    但這一切卻更讓他們堅信,德雷福斯不只是有罪,

  • but sneaky as well, because clearly he had hidden all of the evidence

    而且還很狡猾。因為很明顯地,他趕在他們搜查前,

  • before they had managed to get to it.

    把所有的證據都藏了起來。

  • Next, they went and looked through his personal history

    緊接著,他們轉向搜查他的私人紀錄,

  • for any incriminating details.

    希望能找出任何微小的罪證。

  • They talked to his teachers.

    他們約談他的老師。

  • They found that he had studied foreign languages in school

    發現德雷福斯曾在學校修習外語,

  • which clearly showed a desire to conspire with foreign governments

    很明顯地展現未來與外國政府合謀的

  • later in life.

    企圖心。

  • His teachers also said that Dreyfus had a good memory

    他的老師們更說德雷福斯有著絕佳的記憶力,

  • and was known for having a good memory.

    並以這項才能著名。

  • Which was highly suspicious, right?

    同樣地,聽起來很可疑,對吧?

  • You know, because a spy has to remember a lot of things.

    你知道的,因為間諜要有能力記住很多事情。

  • So, the case went to trial and Dreyfus was found guilty.

    所以,這件案子進入審判後,法官判德雷福斯有罪。

  • And afterwards they took him out into this public square

    之後他們把德雷福斯帶到市民廣場,

  • and ritualistically tore his insignia from his uniform

    儀式般地將他的肩章從制服上摘除,

  • and broke his sword and two.

    並將他的劍折斷。

  • This is called the degradation of Dreyfus.

    這被稱作是德雷福斯的免職。

  • And they sentenced him to life imprisonment

    而後,他們判他終身監禁,

  • on the aptly named Devil's Island

    到那個同樣名為"惡魔"的島上服刑,

  • which is this barren rock off the coast of South America.

    那是一座位在南美海岸的荒蕪之島。

  • So there he went.

    他就這樣去了那裏。

  • And there he spent his days alone writing letters

    被單獨監禁的每一天,他不斷地

  • and letters to the French government

    寫信給法國政府。

  • begging them to reopen his case so they could discover his innocence.

    懇求政府能夠重新調查他的案子以還他清白。

  • But for the most part, France considered the matter closed.

    不過基本上,法國政府認為這件事情已經結案了。

  • So one thing that's really interesting to me

    但在這裡,針對這個德雷福斯事件,

  • about the Dreyfus Affair is this question

    有一個問題讓我覺得很有意思就是,

  • of why the officers were so convinced

    為什麼這些軍官會這麼確信

  • that Dreyfus was guilty.

    德雷福斯就是那個犯人。

  • I mean you might even assume that they were setting him up.

    我的意思是,你甚至可以假設其實是這些軍官陷害他的。

  • They were intentionally framing him,

    他們有意栽贓給他。

  • but historians don't think that's what happened.

    但是史學家們並不這麼認為。

  • As far as we can tell, the officers genuinely believed

    就我們所了解的,這些軍官是真的相信

  • that the case against Dreyfus was strong.

    對於德雷福斯的指控是強而有力的。

  • Which you know, makes you wonder what does it say

    但是這也會讓你開始思考,當我們能用

  • about the human mind that we can find such paltry evidence

    如此微薄的證據去強定一個人的罪時,

  • to be compelling enough to convict a man?

    我們該如何解釋這其中的心理運作?

  • Well, this is a case of what scientists call

    好,這就是科學家所稱的

  • "motivated reasoning".

    「動機性推理」。

  • It's this phenomenon which our unconscious motivations,

    這種心理現象描述人類在理解資訊時,

  • our desires and fears shape the way we interpret information.

    會受到潛意識的動機、慾望以及恐懼所影響。

  • So some information, some ideas feel like our allies

    所以有些讓人感覺是屬同盟的資訊及想法,

  • and we want them to win.

    我們就會希望它們獲勝。

  • We want to defend them.

    會想保護它們。

  • And other information or ideas are the enemy

    然後把其他訊息與想法視為敵人,

  • and we want to shoot them down.

    並想擊倒它們。

  • So this is why I call motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."

    所以這也是為甚麼我會把動機性推理稱作「士兵心態」。

  • And probably most of you have never persecuted

    我相信大部分在現場的各位,大概都從未以叛國罪

  • a French Jewish officer for high treason I assume,

    來迫害一位法籍猶太裔的軍官。

  • but maybe you've followed sports or politics.

    不過,你也許有看球賽或瘋政治的經驗。

  • So you might have noticed that when the referee judges

    你可能會注意到,當場上的裁判作出判決,

  • that your team committed a foul for example,

    舉例來說,你支持的隊伍被判犯規,

  • you're highly motivated to find reasons why he's wrong.

    你會很想找出裁判錯判的原因。

  • But if he judges that the other team committed a foul - awesome!

    不過,當裁判是判敵隊犯規的時候,太好了!

  • That's a good call.

    那球判的真好!

  • Let's not examine it too closely.

    大家不用太認真去檢查啦。

  • Or, maybe you've read an article or study

    或者,也許你曾讀到一篇文章或研究,

  • that examined some controversial policy

    都是有關於一些爭議性的政策,

  • like capital punishment.

    像是死刑。

  • And as researchers have demonstrated,

    就像研究者所論證的,

  • if you support capital punishment,

    當你是支持死刑,

  • and the study shows that is not effective,

    然後研究報告顯示死刑無效,

  • then you're highly motivated to find all the reasons

    你就會很想找出所有的原因,

  • why the study was poorly designed.

    去證明這個研究根本設計有問題。

  • But if it shows that capital punishment works - awesome!

    不過如果這份研究指出死刑有效,太棒了!

  • It's a good study. And vice versa.

    這是一份好的研究。反之亦然。

  • If you don't support capital punishment, same thing.

    那當你是不支持死刑,也會有相同的情況。

  • Our judgment is just strongly influenced unconsciously

    我們所做出的判斷都受到潛意識中,

  • by which side we want to win.

    那股希望誰勝的念頭深深影響。

  • And this is ubiquitous.

    這種情況是很常見的。

  • This shapes how we think about our health, relationships,

    這種現象影響我們對健康、感情的思考方式,

  • how we decide how to vote, what we consider fair or ethical,

    也影響我們如何決定投票、如何判斷公平或道德。

  • and what's most scary to me about motivated reasoning

    但更讓我感到害怕的是,動機性推理

  • or soldier mindset, is how unconscious it is.

    或稱士兵心態,它是如此無意識的一種心態。

  • We can think we're being objective and fair-minded

    我們可以意識到自己是客觀與公正的,

  • and still wind up ruining the life of an innocent man.

    但是卻仍毀掉了一位無辜者的一生。

  • However, fortunately for Dreyfus, his story is not over.

    但對於德雷福斯來說,值得慶幸的是,他的故事還沒結束。

  • This is Colonel Picquart.

    這是 Picquart上校。

  • He is another high-ranking officer in the French army,

    他是另一位法國軍隊的高階軍官,

  • and like most people, he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.

    跟大多數的人一樣,認為德雷福斯是有罪的。

  • Also like most people in the Army,

    他也像軍中大部分的人一樣,

  • he was at least casually anti-Semitic.

    至少算是反猶太人的。

  • But at a certain point, Picquart began to suspect

    不過在某種程度上,Picqaurt開始懷疑,

  • what if we are all wrong about Dreyfus?

    會不會我們都誤會德雷福斯了?

  • And what happened was, he had discovered evidence

    其實事實上,Picqaurt已經找到證據,

  • that the spying for Germany had continued

    能證明德國間諜的行動,

  • even after Dreyfus was in prison.

    在德雷福斯入獄後仍持續進行。

  • And he had also discovered that another officer in the Army

    而且他還發現軍中的另外一名軍官,

  • had handwriting that perfectly matched the memo.

    其字跡與備忘錄上的字跡完全符合。

  • Much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.

    比德雷福斯的筆跡還像。

  • So he brought these discoveries to his superiors

    所以他將這些發現上交給上級,

  • but to his dismay, they either didn't care,

    但令他沮喪的是,上級根本不在乎,

  • or came up with elaborate rationalizations to explain his findings,

    甚至想出其他理由來合理化Picquart的發現,

  • like, "Well, all you've really shown, Picquart, is that there is another spy

    像是,「好,就從你所提出的事證,顯示軍中有另一個間諜

  • who learned how to mimic Dreyfus's handwriting,

    會模仿德雷福斯的筆跡,

  • and he picked up the torch of spying after Dreyfus left.

    他在德雷福斯走後,接下了諜報的任務。

  • But Dreyfus is still guilty."

    不過德雷福斯還是有罪的。」

  • Eventually, Picquart managed to get Dreyfus exonerated.

    最後,Picquart終於讓德雷福斯無罪釋放。

  • But it took him 10 years,

    但他花了十年的時間,

  • and for part of that time, he himself was in prison

    而且當中有幾年,他自己也在獄中,

  • for the crime of disloyalty to the Army.

    罪名是對軍隊不忠。

  • So, you know, a lot of people feel

    那麼,你知道,很多人覺得

  • like Picquart can't really be the hero of this story.

    Picquart不能真的算是這則故事的英雄。

  • Because he was an anti-Semite and that's bad.

    因為他是個反猶份子,這是不對的。

  • Which I agree with, but personally, for me,

    這點我同意,但是我個人認為

  • the fact that Picquant was anti-Semitic

    就是因為Picquart是反猶太人

  • actually makes his actions more admirable to me.

    反而更讓我對他的行為感到欽佩。

  • Because he had the same prejudices, the same reasons

    因為他有著與其他人相同的成見與理由,

  • to be biased as his fellow officers,

    去被偏見所左右,就像他的同僚那樣。

  • but his motivation to find the truth and uphold it just trumped all of that.

    但是他努力尋找真相並堅持到底的行為,早已勝過一切。

  • So to me,

    所以對我而言,

  • Picquart is a poster child for what I call "scout mindset."

    Picquart是所謂「偵察兵心態」的典範。

  • It's the drive not to make one idea win or another lose,

    一個不讓任何一方的想法勝或負,

  • but just to see what's really there as honestly and accurately as you can,

    而是盡可能忠實且準確地去看事情的真相,

  • even if it's not pretty or convenient or pleasant.

    即便真相可能不太美麗或容易取得,甚至令人難受。

  • And this mindset is what I'm personally passionate about.

    而這就是我個人最熱愛的一種心態。

  • And what I've spent the last few years examining

    我花了最近幾年的時間去檢驗

  • and trying to figure out what causes scout mindset.

    並試著找出偵察兵心態的成因。

  • You know, why are some people sometimes at least,

    就是為什麼總有些人有時甚至無論如何

  • able to cut through their own prejudices and biases and motivations

    都能摒棄自己的成見、偏見以及背後的動機

  • and just to see the facts and evidence

    並盡可能客觀地

  • as objectively as they can?

    去看事實與證據?

  • And the answer is emotional.

    答案跟情感有關。

  • So, just as the soldier mindset is rooted in emotions

    就像士兵心態是建構在下列幾種情感之上,

  • like defensiveness or tribalism, scout mindset is too.

    像是防禦自我或是部落主義,偵察兵心態也是。

  • It's just rooted in different emotions.

    只是建構在不同的情感上。

  • So for example, scouts are curious.

    舉例來說,偵查兵是好奇的。

  • They're more likely to say that they feel pleasure

    當學到新資訊或等不及要解決一個難題時,

  • when they learn new information or an itch to solve a puzzle.

    他們比較容易因此感到快樂。

  • They're more likely to feel intrigued

    當他們遇到事情是矛盾的或符合期待時,

  • when they encounter something that contradicts their expectations.

    他們也比較容易對此感到好奇。

  • Scouts also have different values.

    除此之外,偵察兵還有著不同的價值觀。

  • They are more likely to say that they think it's virtuous

    他們比較有可能會說,去試探自己的信仰

  • to test your own beliefs and they're less likely to say

    並沒有不對,然後他們比較不可能會說,

  • that someone who changes his mind seems weak.

    有人改變心意是懦弱的表現。

  • And above all, scouts are grounded.

    總而言之,偵察兵算是乖乖牌。

  • Which means that their self-worth

    也就是說,他們身為一個人的自我價值

  • as a person isn't tied to how right or wrong they are

    並不是與自己在某些議題上

  • about any particular topic.

    有幾分的對或錯有關。

  • So, you know, they can believe that capital punishment works

    所以,他們可以一開始相信死刑是有效的,

  • and if studies come out showing that it doesn't, they can say,

    但是當所有研究指出死刑無效,他們會這麼說,

  • "Huh. Looks like I might be wrong.

    「嗯,看起來我之前可能是錯的。

  • Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."

    但不代表我很糟或很笨。」

  • So these traits, this cluster of traits

    所以這些特質,這一整組的特質

  • is what researchers have found -

    就是研究者所發現,

  • and I've also found anecdotally - predicts good judgment.

    同時也是我在前面那件軼事中所發現的,能預測出好的判斷。

  • And the key takeaway I want to leave you with

    而那關鍵的重點,也就是我希望帶給你們的

  • about those traits is that they're primarily

    基本上這些特質

  • not about how smart you are, or about how much you know.

    跟你有多聰明或有多博學無關。

  • In fact they don't correlate very much with IQ at all.

    事實上,它們跟智商基本上一點關係也沒有。

  • They're about how you feel.

    它們跟你的感受有關。

  • So, there's a quote that I keep coming back to by Saint-Exupery.

    那麼在這裡,有一段來自聖修伯里的話,我總是記在心上,

  • He is the author of "The Little Prince."

    他是「小王子」這本書的作者。

  • And he said, "If you want to build a ship,

    他說「如果你想建造一艘船,

  • don't drum up your men to collect wood and give orders

    千萬別先急著把人集合起來找木頭、下指令、

  • and distribute the work.

    幫他們分配工作,

  • Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea."

    相反的,你是要先讓他們憧憬那片一望無際的海洋。」

  • In other words, I claim if we want

    換而言之,我主張如果我們想

  • to really improve our judgment as individuals and as societies,

    真的改善我們的判斷能力,不論是個人或是整個社會,

  • what we need most is not more instruction in logic or rhetoric

    我們最需要的並不是更多的邏輯性的、花言巧語的、

  • or probability or economics,

    可能性的甚至是經濟性的指示,

  • even though those things are quite valuable.

    即便這些東西有著它的價值。

  • But what we most need

    但是我們最需要的東西

  • to use those principles well, is scout mindset.

    能夠把那些原則做好的關鍵是偵察兵心態。

  • We need to change the way we feel.

    我們需要改變我們感受的方式。

  • We need to learn how to feel proud instead of ashamed

    當我們意識到我們可能誤會了某些事情,

  • when we notice we might have been wrong about something.

    我們需要學習如何為此感到驕傲而非羞愧。

  • We need to learn how to feel intrigued instead of defensive

    我們需要學習如何產生好奇心而非防禦心

  • when we encounter some information

    特別是當我們面對一些

  • that contradicts our beliefs.

    與我們理念相違背的資訊時。

  • So, the question I want to leave you with,

    在最後,我有問題想留給大家思考,

  • is what do you most yearn for?

    那就是你最渴望的東西是什麼?

  • Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs,

    你渴望捍衛自己的信念嗎?

  • or do you yearn to see the world as clearly as you possibly can?

    或者,你渴望盡可能的看清楚這個世界嗎?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝大家。

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

So, I'd like you to imagine for a moment

好,我想請大家先想像一下

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【TEDx】就算你是錯的,為什麼你還是覺得你是對的 (Why "scout mindset" is crucial to good judgment | Julia Galef | TEDxPSU)

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    chloe 發佈於 2016 年 08 月 10 日
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