Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

  • Hi I'm Adriene Hill, welcome back to Crash Course Economics.

    大家好,我是艾德麗安·希爾,歡迎收看經濟學速成班

  • As you may remember from our first video,

    如果你對我們的第一支影片還有印象

  • economics can be divided into two parts: microeconomics and macroeconomics.

    應該知道經濟學分為兩部分:個體經濟學和總體經濟學

  • Since macroeconomics is the one that's most often in the news,

    因為總體經濟學比較常出現在報章雜誌裡

  • that's where we're gonna start.

    所以我們就從總體經濟學出發

  • We'll get to microeconomics, which is also super important in future episodes.

    我們之後也會討論個體經濟學,因為它相當重要

  • But what is macroeconomics again?

    那什麼是總體經濟學呢?

  • It's the study of economic aggregates revealed through national

    這是一門研究總體經濟的學問,透過

  • income accounting, which is then...

    國民收入會計,意思是...

  • Okay okay, when you define it like that,

    好了好了,你這樣解釋會讓

  • macroeconomic sounds boring

    總體經濟學聽起來很無聊

  • but it is not boring!

    但其實它一點也不無聊 !

  • It is exciting!

    它很有趣 !

  • Macro is about booms and busts,

    總經是關於繁榮及蕭條

  • will you get a job when you graduate,

    你畢業後能找到工作嗎

  • should the government cut taxes.

    政府應不應該課稅

  • In theory, lowering marginal tax rates would actually increase the...

    理論上,降低邊際稅率其實會增加

  • No no no!

    停停停!

  • Remember, the goal of learning economics is to become a better decision maker,

    記得喔,學習經濟學的目標是成為更好的決策者

  • and part of that is learning how the whole economy works.

    其中一部分就是要了解整體經濟的運作模式

  • So let's learn about the whole economy.

    那麼現在就開始學習整體經濟吧!

  • So, macroeconomics is the study of the entire economy.

    總體經濟學是一門研究整體經濟的學問

  • Macroeconomists tell you the big stuff,

    總體經濟學家會告訴你宏觀的事情

  • like economic output, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, and government policies.

    例如經濟產出、失業率、通貨膨脹、利率、和政府決策

  • Now when it comes to fields of study, macroeconomics is a relatively new subject.

    相較其他領域而言,總體經濟學其實是一門較新的研究領域

  • It wasn't until the Great Depression in the 1930's

    一直到1930年代的經濟大蕭條

  • that economists fully appreciated the need for a systematic way to measure the overall economy,

    經濟學家才體認到我們需要一套有系統的方法來測量整體經濟

  • and that we might need theories to guide policies and fix potential problems.

    也需要能引領政策及解決潛在問題的理論

  • A hundred years ago, there was no comprehensive data on economic activity,

    一百年前,那時對於經濟活動還沒有詳盡的數據

  • so there was no macroeconomics.

    也因此當時並沒有總體經濟學

  • Today, economic data is plentiful,

    現在我們有豐富的經濟數據

  • but that doesn't mean that economists agree about where the economy is,

    但這並不表示經濟學家們都對問題想法一致,像是經濟狀況如何

  • where it's going, or what should be done to help.

    未來經濟如何、應該有什麼因應對策

  • Macroeconomists make predictions based on data,

    總體經濟學家所做的預測是根據數據、

  • theoretical models and historical trends, but in the end, they're just predictions.

    理論模型和歷史趨勢,不過畢竟也只是預測

  • If you ask three economists the same question, you're likely to get three different answers,

    如果問三位不同的經濟學家同一個問題,你很有可能得到三種不同的回答

  • but how, you ask, can the dismal "science" be so subjective?

    你會問這門鬱悶的「科學」怎麼如此主觀?

  • Well, economics is not a traditional science

    經濟學與一般的科學不同

  • because it is nearly impossible to control all the different variables.

    因為我們不太可能控制所有的變因

  • Like all the social sciences, economics is studying people,

    就跟所有的社會科學一樣,經濟學是一門研究人的學問

  • and it turns out that sometimes people are unpredictable.

    而事實上人是無法預測的

  • I challenge all of you to a tournament of champions in Flappy Bird!

    你們所有人來跟我比一場 Flappy Bird 吧 !

  • Who saw that coming?

    誰能料到這情況發生?

  • That doesn't mean that economics is all guesswork.

    這不代表經濟學全是些不可靠的臆測

  • For example, right now in early 2015, the economy of Greece is, well it's not, it's not good.

    舉例來說,現在是 2015 年年初,希臘的經濟狀況...嗯...不是很好

  • But how can we tell,

    但我們由何得知?

  • and is it gonna get better? Is it gonna get worse? What should be done about it?

    情況會好轉嗎?還是會惡化?應該採行什麼對策呢?

  • These are all questions that macroeconomists try to answer,

    這些都是總體經濟學家想要解決的問題

  • but for this video, we're gonna focus on the question "How can we tell?"

    不過在接下來的影片中,我們會專注於「我們由何得知?」這問題上

  • Well in general, policy makers have three economic goals:

    決策者普遍上有三個經濟目標:

  • they want to keep the economy growing over time,

    他們想要維持經濟持續成長

  • they want to limit unemployment,

    他們想要控制失業率

  • and they want to keep prices stable.

    他們想要維持物價穩定

  • Now for the most part when these three things happen,

    在多數情況下,這三件事情同時達成的時候

  • the citizens are happy, politicians get reelected, and economists get raises.

    老百姓會開心,政府官員能夠續任,經濟學家得到加薪

  • There are three specific measurements that economists analyze to see if a country is achieving each goal.

    經濟學家分析三種特定的指標來檢視國家是否達到每項目標

  • They're the Gross Domestic Product, unemployment rate, and the inflation rate.

    分別是國內生產總值 (GDP)、失業率、和通貨膨脹率

  • The most important measure of an economy is Gross Domestic Product or GDP.

    其中最重要的經濟指標就是國內生產總值,簡稱 GDP

  • GDP is the value of all final goods and services produced within a country's border

    GDP 是指一國境內生產的所有最終產品和服務的價值

  • in a specific period of time, usually a year.

    在一段特定期間內,通常是一年

  • Now there are some details worth mentioning.

    有一些值得注意的細節

  • GDP doesn't include every transaction that's in the economy.

    GDP 並不能反映出所有的交易活動

  • For example, if you buy a used domestic car,

    舉例來說,假如你買了一輛國產的二手車

  • it doesn't count towards GDP because nothing new was produced.

    這筆交易並不會計入 GDP 中,因為二手車不是新生產出來的

  • Now that same logic applies to buying financial assets like stocks,

    相同的邏輯也能套用於金融資產上,例如股票

  • or when one company buys another company, for example when Google bought YouTube.

    或是企業併購,例如 Google 買下 YouTube

  • Those don't count towards GDP because no new good or service was produced.

    這些都不能計入 GDP 內,因為沒有生產出新的產品或服務

  • Also, GDP often doesn't include illegal activity,

    另外,GDP 通常也不包含非法交易

  • since drug dealers don't usually report their sales to the government,

    因為通常毒販並不會向政府報告他們的銷售情形

  • or non-traditional economic activity like household production.

    以及未透過市場交易的生產活動,例如家戶生產

  • For example, if a charges someone $100 to fix their hot water heater,

    例如,水管工人向他人收取 100 元作為修理熱水器的工錢

  • that counts towards GDP.

    這會計入 GDP 中

  • When he fixes his own water heater, that doesn't count towards GDP.

    而當他修理自家的熱水器時,則不計入 GDP 中

  • Here's a list of countries organized by GDP.

    這些國家以 GDP 大小排序

  • Notice that GDP is measured in dollars, not in the raw number of things produced.

    特別注意,GDP 是以錢做為衡量單位,而非產品的個數

  • If we analyzed just the raw number,

    要是我們只計算產品個數

  • then a country that produced five million thumbtacks

    那麼一個生產五百萬個圖釘的國家

  • would look like they're doing just as well as a country that produced five million cars,

    就會與另一個生產五百萬輛汽車的國家有著相同的生產力

  • but there's also a problem with using the dollar value of stuff produced: it's inflation.

    但使用金錢作為衡量價值又會引發另一個問題:通貨膨脹

  • If two countries produce the same amount of cars, but one has higher prices,

    假設有兩個國家生產相同數量的車子,但其中一國價格較高

  • then that country's going to have a higher nominal GDP, or GDP not adjusted for inflation.

    那麼這個國家就會有較高的名目 GDP,也就是未經通膨調整的 GDP

  • To get a more accurate idea of the health of the economy,

    為了更精確的判斷一個經濟體的好壞

  • economists look at Real GDP, which is GDP adjusted for inflation.

    經濟學家檢查的是實質 GDP,也就是經過通膨調整後的 GDP

  • Just what "adjusted for inflation" means is really important,

    「經過通膨調整」是一個很重要觀念

  • but too big of a topic to discuss right now. We'll get to it.

    不過現在還沒辦法解釋,我們之後再來討論

  • So what does the Real GDP in Greece tell us about its economy?

    所以希臘的實質 GDP 是如何反映他的經濟呢?

  • In 2013, the Greek Real GDP was around 242 billion dollars,

    在 2013 年,希臘的實質 GDP 大約是 2420 億美元

  • but that number doesn't really mean anything until you compare it to previous years.

    但其實這個數字本身不具任何意義,除非你將它拿來與前幾年做比較

  • In 2012, it was 250 billion dollars, in 2011, it was 288 billion,

    2012 年,實質GDP 為 2500 億美元,2011 年為 2880 億美元

  • and in 2010 it was 300 billion.

    2010 年為 3000 億美元

  • In fact, starting in 2008, Greece has had six years of decreasing GDP,

    實際上,從 2008 年開始的六年間,希臘的實質 GDP 逐年遞減

  • and the data reveals that this recession

    這些數據顯示出這次的經濟衰退

  • is just as deep and prolonged as the Great Depression in the United States in the 1930's.

    就和美國在 1930 年代發生的大蕭條一樣嚴重且持久

  • Now, I just used the term recession, which a lot of people use incorrectly.

    我現在用了經濟衰退這個詞,但其實很多人會錯用這個詞

  • A recession is not just when the economy's bad,

    經濟衰退不單只表示景氣差

  • officially it's when two successive quarters or six months show a decrease in Real GDP.

    確切來說是指實質 GDP 連續兩季也就是為期六個月都是負成長

  • Even though the economy in Greece is still struggling,

    儘管現在希臘的經濟仍然吃緊

  • it climbed out of its recession in 2014, experiencing a slight increase in GDP.

    在 2014 年時,希臘從衰退期爬升,它的GDP有些微的成長

  • A depression, on the other hand, doesn't have a technical definition,

    另一方面,蕭條並沒有特定的定義

  • but it's a severe recession, when the economy's really really bad.

    是指經濟衰退非常嚴重,也就是經濟極差的時候

  • It's worth noting though that GDP can be a little problematic.

    值得注意的是 GDP 也有些小問題

  • I mean not all countries measure GDP in the same way,

    並非所有國家計算 GDP 的方式都相同

  • and in recent years some European Union countries

    近幾年,有些歐盟國

  • have started experimenting with counting underground markets,

    開始嘗試計算地下經濟

  • like the sex trade and drug trade as part of the total.

    例如性交易和毒品交易

  • In fact, GDP isn't even that old an idea.

    事實上,GDP 並不是個過時的觀念

  • According to Robert Froyen, during the Great Depression,

    據羅伯特.弗羅伊所說,在經濟大蕭條期間

  • economic decisions were made "on the basis of such sketchy data as stock price indices,

    經濟決策是「根據一些粗略的數據,例如股市價格指數

  • freight car loadings, and incomplete indices of industrial production.

    貨運車的裝載量,以及不完整的生產指數

  • The fact was that comprehensive measures of national income and output did not exist at the time.

    事實上,詳盡的國民所得及產出測量在當時並不存在

  • The depression, and with it the growing role of government in the economy,

    經濟的蕭條,以及政府在經濟體中日漸重要的角色

  • emphasized the need for such measures

    讓這類計量的需求受到重視

  • and led to the development of a comprehensive set of national income accounts."

    導致全面性的國民所得會計帳的發展」

  • So GDP was invented to account for national income,

    所以 GDP 的發明是為了計算國民所得

  • and it may not necessarily provide a complete picture of a country's economy,

    因此它可能不會是一個國家經濟體完整的面貌

  • but for the moment it's what we've got.

    但目前這就是我們所能得知的

  • So that's economic growth, or at least one way to look at economic growth.

    這就是經濟成長,或至少是一個能觀察經濟成長的方式

  • Now, for the next big issue for macroeconomists: unemployment.

    現在來談談總體經濟學家的下一個重要議題:失業

  • Anyway, the major goal of unemployment policy is to limit unemployment,

    失業政策主要的目標是要降低失業

  • and that's measured by - you guessed it - the unemployment rate.

    衡量標準就是,沒錯,失業率

  • In Greece, unemployment is over 25%.

    希臘的失業率超過 25%

  • The unemployment rate is calculated

    失業率的計算方式是

  • by taking the number of people that are unemployed and dividing by the number of people in the labor force, times 100.

    失業人口數除以勞動力總人口,乘以 100

  • Now this percentage represents

    這個比例代表的意義是

  • the number of people that are actively looking for a job but just can't find one.

    有在積極找工作卻找不到工作者的數量

  • First, the labor force only includes

    首先,勞動力只包括

  • people that are of legal working age and working or actively looking for work,

    已滿法定工作年齡以及有積極找工作的人

  • so little kids don't count

    所以小孩並不算在內

  • and neither do people who aren't able to work or who just choose not to work.

    還有欠缺工作能力以及沒有意願工作的人都不算在內

  • So what about someone who's been looking for a job but just gives up?

    那麼對於那些曾找過工作但後來放棄了的人呢?

  • Well, they're no longer part of the labor force, and they're no longer considered unemployed.

    當然,他們就不能再算入勞動力中,所以也不能再算是失業者

  • These are called discouraged workers.

    這些人被稱為沮喪勞工

  • The unemployment rate also doesn't take into account people that are underemployed.

    另外,失業率也不能包括就業不足人口

  • A worker with a five hour a week part time job is considered fully employed

    一個每週工時5小時的臨時工也會被視為全職工作者

  • even if they're looking for a better job.

    就算他們仍在尋找一份更好的工作

  • In both of these cases,

    這兩種情況下

  • the official unemployment rate underestimates the problems in the labor market.

    都會使官方統計出的失業率低估了勞力市場的問題

  • A common misconception is that the goal is to have 0% unemployment,

    很多人都誤以為達到零失業率是最理想的目標

  • but it turns out there's types of unemployment that'll exist even when the economy's going strong.

    但事實上,儘管經濟再好,有些失業類型仍然會存在

  • Economists would point out that there's three types of unemployment,

    經濟學家指出了三種失業類型

  • or three reasons why people would be unemployed.

    也可以說是三種人們可能會面臨失業的原因

  • First is frictional unemployment.

    首先是摩擦性失業

  • This is when people are temporarily unemployed or between jobs.

    是指人們暫時性失業或是轉換工作中

  • So if you quit your job and look for a new one, or if you're just entering the labor force,

    也就是當你剛辭職在找新工作,或是剛進入勞動市場

  • then you're frictionally unemployed.

    就稱之為摩擦性失業

  • The second is called structural unemployment.

    其次是結構性失業

  • Workers are out of work because there's no demand for that specific type of labor.

    是指因社會對某種類型的工作無需求所造成的失業

  • This would be like a VCR repair person,

    就像是修理錄影機的工人

  • but it also includes technological unemployment, where workers are replaced by machines.

    此外,也包括科技性失業,也就是勞工被機器所取代

  • Now both frictional and structural unemployment will always exist;

    摩擦性失業及結構性失業兩者皆不會消失

  • the goal is not to have 0% unemployment.

    因此目標不會是要達到 0% 失業率

  • I mean, 0% is not even possible.

    我是說,0% 是完全不可能的

  • We're always going to have people between jobs or people fired because machines do it better.

    永遠都會有轉換工作的人以及被生產力更高的機器所取代的人

  • So the goal is to have no cyclical unemployment.

    因此我們的目標是要沒有循環性失業

  • This is unemployment due to a recession.

    這是經濟衰退所造成的失業

  • It's when people stop buying stuff, so businesses lay off their workers

    這是當人們停止消費,造成企業裁員

  • and since workers have lower incomes,

    也因為這些員工的收入減少

  • they stop buying stuff which means more people lose their jobs.

    他們也停止消費,意味著更多人會面臨失業

  • An economy is considered to be at full employment when there's only frictional and structural unemployment.

    一個經濟體中只存在摩擦性失業和結構性失業時就稱充分就業

  • This is called the natural rate of unemployment.

    這就是自然失業率

  • This natural rate differs slightly between countries,

    每個國家的自然失業率有些微不同

  • in the United States it's usually between 4 to 6 percent unemployment.

    美國的自然失業率通常在 4% 到 6% 之間

  • Now as you might expect the GDP growth rate and the unemployment rate are inversely related.

    你可能猜到 GDP 成長率與失業率呈負相關

  • That means that when GDP is rising, the unemployment rate is falling,

    表示 GDP 上升,則失業率下降

  • when GDP is falling, the unemployment rate is rising.

    而 GDP 下降時,失業率會上升

  • And that's exactly what happened in the United States during the Great Depression,

    這完全就是美國在經濟大蕭條時發生的情況

  • in the 1930's, droughts, bank failures, and counterproductive policies caused GDP to fall,

    1930 年代,乾旱、銀行倒閉、及無效的政策導致 GDP 下降

  • and unemployment peaked at 25 percent.

    同時失業率最高飆升至 25%

  • Let's move on to the third economic goal: stable prices.

    接著來談第三個經濟目標:穩定物價

  • While I might like the idea of the stuff I buy getting cheaper across the board,

    雖然我可能會希望我想買的東西整體上愈來愈便宜

  • falling prices are not really a good thing.

    但價格愈來愈低廉並不完全是件好事

  • Average prices in Greece have fallen about two percent recently,

    最近,希臘的平均物價下降了 2% 左右

  • and during the 1930's, the inflation rate in the US was negative ten percent.

    1930 年代,美國的通膨率為負 10%

  • But how can cheaper stuff be bad for the economy?

    不過為什麼東西愈來愈便宜反而對經濟有害呢?

  • Well the goal is to keep prices stable, mainly to avoid rapid inflation,

    我們的目標是維持物價穩定,主要是希望避免快速的通貨膨脹

  • or rising prices, but we also want to avoid excessive deflation which is falling prices.

    或是快速的物價上漲,但是我們同時希望避免過度的通貨緊縮或是物價下跌

  • Inflation is measured by tracking the prices of a set amount of commonly purchased items,

    通貨膨脹是透過追蹤一籃生活用品的物價

  • or what economists call a market basket.

    或是經濟學家所說的市場菜籃

  • The inflation rate is the percent change in the price of that basket over time.

    通貨膨脹是不同時間下同一籃物品的物價變動率

  • Too much inflation is bad because it decreases the purchasing power of money;

    過度的通貨膨脹是件壞事,因為會降低貨幣購買力

  • it means you can buy less stuff with the same amount of money,

    意味著金額不變,能買到的東西卻變少

  • which has all sorts of negative effects on the economy.

    這會對經濟造成負面影響

  • Business costs increase as workers demand higher wages and interest rates increase,

    工人要求更高的薪資,導致企業的成本增加,且利率上升

  • so it's harder to get loans, so people buy less cars and houses.

    因此貸款的難度增加,造成人們少買車和房

  • Deflation on the other hand, seems like it would be a good thing

    另一方面,通貨緊縮看似是件好事

  • but most economists see falling prices as a bad thing.

    但大多數的經濟學家都認為物價持續下降是件壞事

  • Falling prices actually discourage people from spending

    事實上,物價持續下降會導致人民減少消費

  • since they might expect prices to fall more in the future.

    因為人們可能會期望未來的價格更便宜

  • Less spending in the economy means GDP is gonna decrease

    一經濟體中的消費減少,表示 GDP 也會下降

  • and unemployment's gonna increase,

    而失業率將會上升

  • and that just becomes a vicious cycle.

    而這就形成了惡性循環

  • So severe recessions are often accompanied by deflation

    因此嚴重的經濟衰退通常會伴隨著通貨緊縮

  • because the demand for goods and services falls,

    因為人們對商品及勞務的需求減少

  • but when the economy starts to improve again, we often see an increase in prices.

    但經濟再次好轉時,我們也常會看到物價跟著上升

  • Throughout history, economies have expanded and contracted.

    從古至今,經濟會一直歷經擴張及收縮

  • It's called the business cycle.

    就稱為景氣循環

  • Let's go to the Thought Bubble.

    我們來想像一下

  • If we imagine the economy as a car, then GDP, employment and inflation are the gauges.

    如果我們把經濟體想成一輛車,那麼 GDP、就業、和通膨就是儀表

  • A car can cruise along at 65 miles per hour without overheating.

    一輛車在時速 65 哩下不會過熱

  • Safe cruising speed is like full employment;

    安全的行車速度好比是充分就業

  • unemployment is low, prices are stable and people are happy.

    失業率低,則物價穩定,皆大歡喜

  • But if we drive that car too fast for too long, it'll overheat,

    但要是長時間行駛速度過快,那麼車子就會過熱

  • and in the economy, significant spending increases GDP causing an expansion.

    而在經濟體中,GDP 急速上升就會造成擴張

  • Unemployment falls and factories start producing at full capacity to keep up with demand.

    此時失業率會下降,為了迎合市場需求,工廠的產能滿載

  • Since the amount of products that can be produced is limited,

    因為能生產的產品數量有限

  • people start to outbid each other, resulting in inflation.

    人們開始競價,結果造成通貨膨脹

  • Eventually, production costs increase as workers demand higher wages

    最後,工人需要更高的薪資,導致生產成本增加

  • and the economy starts to slow down.

    則經濟成長趨緩

  • Businesses lay off a few workers,

    企業資遣一些員工

  • those unemployed workers spend less causing

    而這些被解雇的勞工減少消費

  • the businesses that produce the good that they would otherwise be buying to lay off more workers.

    而這些他們原先會消費的企業資遣更多的員工

  • This is a contraction.

    這就是收縮期

  • The economy is going too slow.

    經濟成長變得太緩慢

  • Eventually things stabilize, production costs fall since resources are sitting idle,

    最後情況會穩定下來,因為空閒資源增加因此生產成本降低

  • and the economy starts to expand again.

    經濟體又再次擴張

  • This process of booms and busts is called the business cycle.

    這種繁榮和蕭條交替的過程就稱之為景氣循環

  • To understand why these fluctuations might occur,

    要了解造成波動的可能原因

  • let's take this car analogy just a little further and look at the engine.

    就讓我們再深入一點看看剛剛車子的比喻,看看引擎的部分

  • Much like the four cylinder engine that powers the Volkswagen of growth,

    就像是推動福斯汽車成長的直列四缸引擎

  • an economy has four components that make up GDP.

    GDP 也有四個組成項目

  • Each represents a different group that can purchase things in the economy.

    每個項目各代表一個會在經濟體中消費的群組

  • They're consumer spending, business spending which is called investment,

    分別是家計支出、公司消費或稱為投資、

  • government spending, and net exports which is basically spending by other countries.

    政府支出和淨出口,基本上就是外國的支出

  • If any one of these components loses power, the economy will slow down,

    任何一個組成力量減弱,都會使經濟成長趨緩

  • but not all of them are created equal.

    但並不會創造出相同大小的四個項目

  • Most economies rely heavily on consumer spending.

    大多數的經濟體十分仰賴家計消費支出

  • For example, in the US, consumers account for about 70% of GDP,

    例如,在美國,家計消費占了 GDP 的 70%

  • but other countries might rely more heavily on exports.

    但其他國家可能更仰賴出口

  • The point is, changes in these four components change the speed of the economy.

    重點是,這四個組成項目的變動能造成經濟成長速度的變動

  • Thanks Thought Bubble.

    謝謝想像畫面

  • So when I'm driving my car on the highway, I use cruise control to regulate my speed.

    當我開車的時候,使用定速巡航來控制我的速度

  • So why don't we have cruise control for the economy?

    那為什麼我們不能使用定速巡航來控制經濟成長呢?