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  • Hi I'm Adriene Hill, welcome back to Crash Course Economics.

    大家好,我是艾德麗安·希爾,歡迎收看經濟學速成班

  • As you may remember from our first video,

    如果你對我們的第一支影片還有印象

  • economics can be divided into two parts: microeconomics and macroeconomics.

    應該知道經濟學分為兩部分:個體經濟學和總體經濟學

  • Since macroeconomics is the one that's most often in the news,

    因為總體經濟學比較常出現在報章雜誌裡

  • that's where we're gonna start.

    所以我們就從總體經濟學出發

  • We'll get to microeconomics, which is also super important in future episodes.

    我們之後也會討論個體經濟學,因為它相當重要

  • But what is macroeconomics again?

    那什麼是總體經濟學呢?

  • It's the study of economic aggregates revealed through national

    這是一門研究總體經濟的學問,透過

  • income accounting, which is then...

    國民收入會計,意思是...

  • Okay okay, when you define it like that,

    好了好了,你這樣解釋會讓

  • macroeconomic sounds boring

    總體經濟學聽起來很無聊

  • but it is not boring!

    但其實它一點也不無聊 !

  • It is exciting!

    它很有趣 !

  • Macro is about booms and busts,

    總經是關於繁榮及蕭條

  • will you get a job when you graduate,

    你畢業後能找到工作嗎

  • should the government cut taxes.

    政府應不應該課稅

  • In theory, lowering marginal tax rates would actually increase the...

    理論上,降低邊際稅率其實會增加

  • No no no!

    停停停!

  • Remember, the goal of learning economics is to become a better decision maker,

    記得喔,學習經濟學的目標是成為更好的決策者

  • and part of that is learning how the whole economy works.

    其中一部分就是要了解整體經濟的運作模式

  • So let's learn about the whole economy.

    那麼現在就開始學習整體經濟吧!

  • So, macroeconomics is the study of the entire economy.

    總體經濟學是一門研究整體經濟的學問

  • Macroeconomists tell you the big stuff,

    總體經濟學家會告訴你宏觀的事情

  • like economic output, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, and government policies.

    例如經濟產出、失業率、通貨膨脹、利率、和政府決策

  • Now when it comes to fields of study, macroeconomics is a relatively new subject.

    相較其他領域而言,總體經濟學其實是一門較新的研究領域

  • It wasn't until the Great Depression in the 1930's

    一直到1930年代的經濟大蕭條

  • that economists fully appreciated the need for a systematic way to measure the overall economy,

    經濟學家才體認到我們需要一套有系統的方法來測量整體經濟

  • and that we might need theories to guide policies and fix potential problems.

    也需要能引領政策及解決潛在問題的理論

  • A hundred years ago, there was no comprehensive data on economic activity,

    一百年前,那時對於經濟活動還沒有詳盡的數據

  • so there was no macroeconomics.

    也因此當時並沒有總體經濟學

  • Today, economic data is plentiful,

    現在我們有豐富的經濟數據

  • but that doesn't mean that economists agree about where the economy is,

    但這並不表示經濟學家們都對問題想法一致,像是經濟狀況如何

  • where it's going, or what should be done to help.

    未來經濟如何、應該有什麼因應對策

  • Macroeconomists make predictions based on data,

    總體經濟學家所做的預測是根據數據、

  • theoretical models and historical trends, but in the end, they're just predictions.

    理論模型和歷史趨勢,不過畢竟也只是預測

  • If you ask three economists the same question, you're likely to get three different answers,

    如果問三位不同的經濟學家同一個問題,你很有可能得到三種不同的回答

  • but how, you ask, can the dismal "science" be so subjective?

    你會問這門鬱悶的「科學」怎麼如此主觀?

  • Well, economics is not a traditional science

    經濟學與一般的科學不同

  • because it is nearly impossible to control all the different variables.

    因為我們不太可能控制所有的變因

  • Like all the social sciences, economics is studying people,

    就跟所有的社會科學一樣,經濟學是一門研究人的學問

  • and it turns out that sometimes people are unpredictable.

    而事實上人是無法預測的

  • I challenge all of you to a tournament of champions in Flappy Bird!

    你們所有人來跟我比一場 Flappy Bird 吧 !

  • Who saw that coming?

    誰能料到這情況發生?

  • That doesn't mean that economics is all guesswork.

    這不代表經濟學全是些不可靠的臆測

  • For example, right now in early 2015, the economy of Greece is, well it's not, it's not good.

    舉例來說,現在是 2015 年年初,希臘的經濟狀況...嗯...不是很好

  • But how can we tell,

    但我們由何得知?

  • and is it gonna get better? Is it gonna get worse? What should be done about it?

    情況會好轉嗎?還是會惡化?應該採行什麼對策呢?

  • These are all questions that macroeconomists try to answer,

    這些都是總體經濟學家想要解決的問題

  • but for this video, we're gonna focus on the question "How can we tell?"

    不過在接下來的影片中,我們會專注於「我們由何得知?」這問題上

  • Well in general, policy makers have three economic goals:

    決策者普遍上有三個經濟目標:

  • they want to keep the economy growing over time,

    他們想要維持經濟持續成長

  • they want to limit unemployment,

    他們想要控制失業率

  • and they want to keep prices stable.

    他們想要維持物價穩定

  • Now for the most part when these three things happen,

    在多數情況下,這三件事情同時達成的時候

  • the citizens are happy, politicians get reelected, and economists get raises.

    老百姓會開心,政府官員能夠續任,經濟學家得到加薪

  • There are three specific measurements that economists analyze to see if a country is achieving each goal.

    經濟學家分析三種特定的指標來檢視國家是否達到每項目標

  • They're the Gross Domestic Product, unemployment rate, and the inflation rate.

    分別是國內生產總值 (GDP)、失業率、和通貨膨脹率

  • The most important measure of an economy is Gross Domestic Product or GDP.

    其中最重要的經濟指標就是國內生產總值,簡稱 GDP

  • GDP is the value of all final goods and services produced within a country's border

    GDP 是指一國境內生產的所有最終產品和服務的價值

  • in a specific period of time, usually a year.

    在一段特定期間內,通常是一年

  • Now there are some details worth mentioning.

    有一些值得注意的細節

  • GDP doesn't include every transaction that's in the economy.

    GDP 並不能反映出所有的交易活動

  • For example, if you buy a used domestic car,

    舉例來說,假如你買了一輛國產的二手車

  • it doesn't count towards GDP because nothing new was produced.

    這筆交易並不會計入 GDP 中,因為二手車不是新生產出來的

  • Now that same logic applies to buying financial assets like stocks,

    相同的邏輯也能套用於金融資產上,例如股票

  • or when one company buys another company, for example when Google bought YouTube.

    或是企業併購,例如 Google 買下 YouTube

  • Those don't count towards GDP because no new good or service was produced.

    這些都不能計入 GDP 內,因為沒有生產出新的產品或服務

  • Also, GDP often doesn't include illegal activity,

    另外,GDP 通常也不包含非法交易

  • since drug dealers don't usually report their sales to the government,

    因為通常毒販並不會向政府報告他們的銷售情形

  • or non-traditional economic activity like household production.

    以及未透過市場交易的生產活動,例如家戶生產

  • For example, if a charges someone $100 to fix their hot water heater,

    例如,水管工人向他人收取 100 元作為修理熱水器的工錢

  • that counts towards GDP.

    這會計入 GDP 中

  • When he fixes his own water heater, that doesn't count towards GDP.

    而當他修理自家的熱水器時,則不計入 GDP 中

  • Here's a list of countries organized by GDP.

    這些國家以 GDP 大小排序

  • Notice that GDP is measured in dollars, not in the raw number of things produced.

    特別注意,GDP 是以錢做為衡量單位,而非產品的個數

  • If we analyzed just the raw number,

    要是我們只計算產品個數

  • then a country that produced five million thumbtacks

    那麼一個生產五百萬個圖釘的國家

  • would look like they're doing just as well as a country that produced five million cars,

    就會與另一個生產五百萬輛汽車的國家有著相同的生產力

  • but there's also a problem with using the dollar value of stuff produced: it's inflation.

    但使用金錢作為衡量價值又會引發另一個問題:通貨膨脹

  • If two countries produce the same amount of cars, but one has higher prices,

    假設有兩個國家生產相同數量的車子,但其中一國價格較高

  • then that country's going to have a higher nominal GDP, or GDP not adjusted for inflation.

    那麼這個國家就會有較高的名目 GDP,也就是未經通膨調整的 GDP

  • To get a more accurate idea of the health of the economy,

    為了更精確的判斷一個經濟體的好壞

  • economists look at Real GDP, which is GDP adjusted for inflation.

    經濟學家檢查的是實質 GDP,也就是經過通膨調整後的 GDP

  • Just what "adjusted for inflation" means is really important,

    「經過通膨調整」是一個很重要觀念

  • but too big of a topic to discuss right now. We'll get to it.

    不過現在還沒辦法解釋,我們之後再來討論

  • So what does the Real GDP in Greece tell us about its economy?

    所以希臘的實質 GDP 是如何反映他的經濟呢?

  • In 2013, the Greek Real GDP was around 242 billion dollars,

    在 2013 年,希臘的實質 GDP 大約是 2420 億美元

  • but that number doesn't really mean anything until you compare it to previous years.

    但其實這個數字本身不具任何意義,除非你將它拿來與前幾年做比較

  • In 2012, it was 250 billion dollars, in 2011, it was 288 billion,

    2012 年,實質GDP 為 2500 億美元,2011 年為 2880 億美元

  • and in 2010 it was 300 billion.

    2010 年為 3000 億美元

  • In fact, starting in 2008, Greece has had six years of decreasing GDP,

    實際上,從 2008 年開始的六年間,希臘的實質 GDP 逐年遞減

  • and the data reveals that this recession

    這些數據顯示出這次的經濟衰退

  • is just as deep and prolonged as the Great Depression in the United States in the 1930's.

    就和美國在 1930 年代發生的大蕭條一樣嚴重且持久

  • Now, I just used the term recession, which a lot of people use incorrectly.

    我現在用了經濟衰退這個詞,但其實很多人會錯用這個詞

  • A recession is not just when the economy's bad,

    經濟衰退不單只表示景氣差

  • officially it's when two successive quarters or six months show a decrease in Real GDP.

    確切來說是指實質 GDP 連續兩季也就是為期六個月都是負成長

  • Even though the economy in Greece is still struggling,

    儘管現在希臘的經濟仍然吃緊

  • it climbed out of its recession in 2014, experiencing a slight increase in GDP.

    在 2014 年時,希臘從衰退期爬升,它的GDP有些微的成長

  • A depression, on the other hand, doesn't have a technical definition,

    另一方面,蕭條並沒有特定的定義

  • but it's a severe recession, when the economy's really really bad.

    是指經濟衰退非常嚴重,也就是經濟極差的時候

  • It's worth noting though that GDP can be a little problematic.

    值得注意的是 GDP 也有些小問題

  • I mean not all countries measure GDP in the same way,

    並非所有國家計算 GDP 的方式都相同

  • and in recent years some European Union countries

    近幾年,有些歐盟國

  • have started experimenting with counting underground markets,

    開始嘗試計算地下經濟

  • like the sex trade and drug trade as part of the total.

    例如性交易和毒品交易

  • In fact, GDP isn't even that old an idea.

    事實上,GDP 並不是個過時的觀念

  • According to Robert Froyen, during the Great Depression,

    據羅伯特.弗羅伊所說,在經濟大蕭條期間

  • economic decisions were made "on the basis of such sketchy data as stock price indices,

    經濟決策是「根據一些粗略的數據,例如股市價格指數

  • freight car loadings, and incomplete indices of industrial production.

    貨運車的裝載量,以及不完整的生產指數

  • The fact was that comprehensive measures of national income and output did not exist at the time.

    事實上,詳盡的國民所得及產出測量在當時並不存在

  • The depression, and with it the growing role of government in the economy,

    經濟的蕭條,以及政府在經濟體中日漸重要的角色

  • emphasized the need for such measures

    讓這類計量的需求受到重視

  • and led to the development of a comprehensive set of national income accounts."

    導致全面性的國民所得會計帳的發展」

  • So GDP was invented to account for national income,

    所以 GDP 的發明是為了計算國民所得

  • and it may not necessarily provide a complete picture of a country's economy,

    因此它可能不會是一個國家經濟體完整的面貌

  • but for the moment it's what we've got.

    但目前這就是我們所能得知的

  • So that's economic growth, or at least one way to look at economic growth.

    這就是經濟成長,或至少是一個能觀察經濟成長的方式

  • Now, for the next big issue for macroeconomists: unemployment.

    現在來談談總體經濟學家的下一個重要議題:失業

  • Anyway, the major goal of unemployment policy is to limit unemployment,

    失業政策主要的目標是要降低失業

  • and that's measured by - you guessed it - the unemployment rate.

    衡量標準就是,沒錯,失業率

  • In Greece, unemployment is over 25%.

    希臘的失業率超過 25%

  • The unemployment rate is calculated

    失業率的計算方式是

  • by taking the number of people that are unemployed and dividing by the number of people in the labor force, times 100.

    失業人口數除以勞動力總人口,乘以 100

  • Now this percentage represents

    這個比例代表的意義是

  • the number of people that are actively looking for a job but just can't find one.

    有在積極找工作卻找不到工作者的數量

  • First, the labor force only includes

    首先,勞動力只包括

  • people that are of legal working age and working or actively looking for work,

    已滿法定工作年齡以及有積極找工作的人

  • so little kids don't count

    所以小孩並不算在內

  • and neither do people who aren't able to work or who just choose not to work.

    還有欠缺工作能力以及沒有意願工作的人都不算在內

  • So what about someone who's been looking for a job but just gives up?

    那麼對於那些曾找過工作但後來放棄了的人呢?

  • Well, they're no longer part of the labor force, and they're no longer considered unemployed.

    當然,他們就不能再算入勞動力中,所以也不能再算是失業者

  • These are called discouraged workers.

    這些人被稱為沮喪勞工

  • The unemployment rate also doesn't take into account people that are underemployed.

    另外,失業率也不能包括就業不足人口

  • A worker with a five hour a week part time job is considered fully employed

    一個每週工時5小時的臨時工也會被視為全職工作者

  • even if they're looking for a better job.

    就算他們仍在尋找一份更好的工作

  • In both of these cases,

    這兩種情況下

  • the official unemployment rate underestimates the problems in the labor market.

    都會使官方統計出的失業率低估了勞力市場的問題

  • A common misconception is that the goal is to have 0% unemployment,

    很多人都誤以為達到零失業率是最理想的目標

  • but it turns out there's types of unemployment that'll exist even when the economy's going strong.

    但事實上,儘管經濟再好,有些失業類型仍然會存在

  • Economists would point out that there's three types of unemployment,

    經濟學家指出了三種失業類型

  • or three reasons why people would be unemployed.

    也可以說是三種人們可能會面臨失業的原因

  • First is frictional unemployment.

    首先是摩擦性失業

  • This is when people are temporarily unemployed or between jobs.

    是指人們暫時性失業或是轉換工作中

  • So if you quit your job and look for a new one, or if you're just entering the labor force,

    也就是當你剛辭職在找新工作,或是剛進入勞動市場

  • then you're frictionally unemployed.

    就稱之為摩擦性失業

  • The second is called structural unemployment.

    其次是結構性失業

  • Workers are out of work because there's no demand for that specific type of labor.

    是指因社會對某種類型的工作無需求所造成的失業

  • This would be like a VCR repair person,

    就像是修理錄影機的工人

  • but it also includes technological unemployment, where workers are replaced by machines.

    此外,也包括科技性失業,也就是勞工被機器所取代

  • Now both frictional and structural unemployment will always exist;

    摩擦性失業及結構性失業兩者皆不會消失

  • the goal is not to have 0% unemployment.

    因此目標不會是要達到 0% 失業率

  • I mean, 0% is not even possible.

    我是說,0% 是完全不可能的

  • We're always going to have people between jobs or people fired because machines do it better.

    永遠都會有轉換工作的人以及被生產力更高的機器所取代的人

  • So the goal is to have no cyclical unemployment.

    因此我們的目標是要沒有循環性失業

  • This is unemployment due to a recession.

    這是經濟衰退所造成的失業

  • It's when people stop buying stuff, so businesses lay off their workers

    這是當人們停止消費,造成企業裁員

  • and since workers have lower incomes,

    也因為這些員工的收入減少

  • they stop buying stuff which means more people lose their jobs.

    他們也停止消費,意味著更多人會面臨失業

  • An economy is considered to be at full employment when there's only frictional and structural unemployment.

    一個經濟體中只存在摩擦性失業和結構性失業時就稱充分就業

  • This is called the natural rate of unemployment.

    這就是自然失業率