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Welcome to the Investors Trading Academy economic calendar of the week. Each week our news analysts
review the upcoming economic events that you should be monitoring during the week. Equities
currencies and commodities were on a roller coaster as investors grappled with what could
be a worse-than-expected slowdown in China, the world's second-largest economy. Those
fears were reignited earlier this month when China unexpectedly devalued its currency,
a move that signaled the government's concern about growth, and kicked into higher gear
as economic data continued to show lackluster Chinese growth.
In the US, tepid earnings growth and uncertainty about the timing of the Federal Reserve's
first increase in rates in nearly a decade are also sparking concerns.
What started out as a quiet week went completely haywire, you can never know what to expect.
This week promises to be even more exciting as the economic calendar is packed full of
major events and Fed speakers. Late last week Federal Reserve members seemed to turn back
around supporting a September rate increase after US GDP soared above expectations. The
CBOE Volatility Index rose 5.5 per cent to 27.53 on Friday, remaining above its 10-year
average of about 20 for the sixth session in a row. The VIX is based on S&P 500 options
that investors tend to rush to when they're fearful of a pullback.
The main focus this week will be Friday’s nonfarm payroll report on Friday. Solid data
this week could send the Fed’s back into center stage. The jobs data is pivotal to
the debate on when the Federal Reserve starts the rates ‘normalization’ process, that
is, the time when the Fed lifts rates from zero, but for the Fed to be confident about
lifting rates in September, members don’t just want to see job growth and lower unemployment
but also evidence of inflation in the form of rising wages.
Monday finds the UK closed for Summer bank holidays and the end of the week will see
US traders beginning to begin the long Labor Day holiday.
On Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing index is released in the US. A reading of 53 is tipped,
above the 50 line that separates contraction from expansion. Data on construction work
is also issued with the monthly figures on new auto sales. The usual weekly chain store
sales figures are also released. In China, the official purchasing manager
indices are released on Tuesday. That is, the National Bureau of Statistics will release
the surveys covering both manufacturing and services sectors. The surveys are more reliable
than the private sector surveys and the survey sample is much larger.
On Wednesday, the ADP report of private payrolls is issued, the precursor to Friday’s official
job data. Economists expect job growth of around 205,000 in the month.
On Thursday traders will focus on the ECB rate decision and Mr. Draghi’s press conference.
In the US estimates on international trade are issued for July. The trade deficit may
have widened from US$39.8 billion to US$42 billion in the month. The ISM services index
for August is also released on Thursday together with the Challenger series on job layoffs.
The regular weekly data on claims for unemployment insurance is also issued.
And on Friday, the highlight of the week arrives. The August jobs market data is released with
most focus on employment -- the non-farm payrolls series. The job market has improved markedly
over time with job growth now consistently above 200,000 every month. And the jobless
rate stands at 5.3 per cent. Economists tip job growth of 215,000 for August and unemployment
at 5.2 per cent.