Name: 【TED-Ed】民調的優點和缺點 - Jason Robert Jaffe (Pros and cons of public opinion polls - Jason Robert Jaffe)
Uploaded: 2015-01-25T22:00:09.000Z
Duration: 4 min 25 s
Description: 觀看完整課程 http://ed.ted.com/lessons/pros-and-cons-of-public-opinion-polls-jason-robert-jaffe 民意調查是如何進行的？更重要的是，民意調查是準確的嗎？Jason Robert Jaffe 揭示了民調的複雜性和偏差，並提供了我們在做出日常決策時，如何看待民調的小技巧。...

情態副詞

We are constantly asked for our opinions.

Which team do you think will win the Super Bowl?

你覺得哪個球隊會贏得超級杯？

Important decision makers in American government

長期以來，在選舉 和重要的立法上

throughout elections and important legislation.

The problem is public opinion isn't easy to track

尤有甚者 民調的結果往往不準確

In 1948, the Chicago Daily Tribune ran a now famous headline:

在 1948 年，《芝加哥每日論壇報 》  拋出了一個在今天來說相當著名的標題：

they cried in big, bold, black and white letters.

他們以又大、又粗 又黑、又白的字體呈現

The Tribune had relied on polls to come to their conclusion.

《論壇報》是根據民意調查 而得出自己的結論的

This happens all the time because public opinion polls

這種情況太常發生了 因為民意調查

要嘛不是不準確 不然就是深具誤導性

First, let's start with an important term:

首先，讓我們開始 理解一個重要術語：

that respond to questions during a public opinion poll.

一群在民意測驗中 回答問題的受訪者

A poll's quality rests largely on its sample,

一項民意調查的品質 在很大程度上取決於其樣本

and a sample can be bad in a few key ways.

Polls that are too small are bad for obvious reasons.

every single person in America for their opinion,

that only ask a certain type of person a question,

the potato is the best vegetable in America.

馬鈴薯是否是 美國的最佳蔬菜的投票

在那裡馬鈴薯是 該州的主要食物

chances are that you would get a much different answer

那麼很有可能地 你在新墨西哥州

than if you asked people in the state of New Mexico,

所得到的答案會存在很大的差距

Getting the right kind of diversity in your sample

在你的樣本中保有適當的多樣性

means making sure that your sample has a range

意謂著，你在樣本中得確保一系列的

Finally, polls that are too hard can't tell you much either.

最後，太困難的民意測驗 也無法提供任何有益的資訊

If you're asking people for their opinions on things

about which they have no prior knowledge,

You're better off shaking a Magic 8 ball.

與其這樣，試試卜卦求籤 甚至還有可能比較準

The person doing the asking is part of the problem, too.

問問題的人也有可能 是導致偏差的部分原因

這就叫訪視員偏差 (interviewer bias)

Humans generally don't like confrontation.

一般說來，人們不喜歡爭鋒相對

People worry that their answers may make them look bad.

人們擔心他們的回答 可能會讓他們看起來很糟

Therefore, we find that people tend to give

而這卻不一定是 他們的誠實意見

And the way we word our questions matters too.

而我們提出問題的方式也很重要

When polls purposely sway the answers one way or the other,

當民意調查刻意誘導 某種類型的答案時

because it pushes people to answer a certain way.

因為它誘導人們 以某種方式回答問題

「你會投票給候選人史密斯嗎？」

「如果你知道候選人史密斯搶劫老年人

if you knew that he robs senior citizens?"

to all sorts of manipulation and inaccuracies,

為什麼人們仍然大量使用它們呢？

Despite their flaws, public opinion polls provide us

儘管有其缺點 民意調查提供我們

with some sense of the thoughts and moods

They offer politicians the chance to pass legislation

它們提供政治人物 某些機會去推動

they think a majority of Americans will support.

他們認為大多數美國人 可能會支持的法案

它們在電視節目中 看起來很潮很吸睛

know which star wore the dress better on the red carpet.

它們知道哪個明星 在紅地毯上穿得時髦

那些被詢問意見的人們，依稀覺得

So, next time you get a phone call asking your opinion,

所以，下次你接到詢問你意見的電話

或者，如果你看到 一個線上民意調查的話

take some time to think about who is asking

接著，試著懷疑 那民調及其結果