Name: 俄烏交戰！伊朗戰火讓美國分心 | DW 新聞 (Russia and Ukraine trade attacks as the Iran war pulls US attention away | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-22T17:00:20.000Z
Duration: 5 min 56 s

Fighting between Russia and Ukraine has left at least six people dead ahead of expected talks between the US And Ukraine.

俄烏戰事造成至少六人死亡，預計美烏將展開會談。

基礎被動語態

Ukrainian officials say at least two people were killed and six wounded, including two children, when a Russian drone struck a house in Zaporizhzhia.

烏克蘭官員表示，俄羅斯無人機襲擊札波羅熱一處民宅，造成至少兩人死亡、六人受傷，其中包括兩名兒童。

In Russia, authorities say four people were killed by Ukrainian shelling in the Belgorod border region.

在俄羅斯，當局表示烏克蘭的砲擊造成別爾哥羅德邊境地區四人死亡。

The attacks come as the US And Ukraine prepare to meet in Miami to discuss ways to end the war, according to Ukrainian state media.

據烏克蘭國家媒體報導，在美烏兩國準備於邁阿密會面討論結束戰爭的同時，發生了這些攻擊。

She's a senior fellow and director of Military Analysis at Defense Priorities.

她是 Defense Priorities 的資深研究員兼軍事分析主任。

She joins us now from Washington, D.C. good to have you with us, Jennifer.

她現在從華盛頓特區加入我們，很高興妳能來。

Now, Ukraine appears to be ramping up its strikes on Russian territory.

烏克蘭似乎正在加強對俄羅斯領土的襲擊。

What's your understanding of its strategy?

嗯，我認為它的策略有兩方面。

First, a lot of the strikes have been aimed at Russia's oil infrastructure, and

首先，很多攻擊都針對俄羅斯的石油基礎設施，

the goal being to diminish Russia's ability to produce oil, both for its domestic uses, but

目的是要降低俄羅斯的石油產量，無論是國內使用，

That's especially important now that the United States has lifted some of the sanctions.

這點現在特別重要，因為美國已經解除了一些制裁。

And as we've seen, the conflict in the Middle east has pushed oil prices higher.

我們也看到，中東的衝突推高了油價。

So this is a lucrative business for Russia to fund its war machine.

所以對俄羅斯來說，這是個能資助其戰爭機器的有利可圖的生意。

The second goal is to try to hit military targets, places where, where Russia is continuing to build the input parts as well as the full military equipment, weapons, tanks, other types of things, to try to make sure that Russia's military capacity is diminished to the extent possible, to limit its ability to continue to push forward inside of Ukrainian territory.

第二個目標是試圖打擊軍事目標，像是俄羅斯持續建造零件以及完整的軍事裝備、武器、坦克等地方，試圖確保俄羅斯的軍事能力盡可能地被削弱，限制其在烏克蘭境內繼續推進的能力。

And talking about the Iran war, how much is Russia banking on the world's attention being focused on the Middle east to carry out its attacks on Ukraine.

聊到伊朗戰爭，俄羅斯有多大程度是押注在世界的注意力都集中在中東，來進行它對烏克蘭的攻擊呢？

Well, the diversion of attention is most important when we think about the United States.

嗯，當我們想到美國時，轉移注意力是最重要的。

The United States has been the leading advocate here for pushing towards a peaceful resolution of this war since the Trump administration came in a little bit over a year ago.

自從川普政府上任一年多以來，美國一直是推動這場戰爭和平解決的主要倡導者。

And right now, US Attention is completely absorbed by the war and the challenges that the war has created, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

而現在，美國的注意力完全被這場戰爭及其造成的挑戰所吸引，例如荷姆茲海峽的關閉。

There's very little political space for pushing forward these diplomatic negotiations.

推動這些外交談判的政治空間非常有限。

And so since the war started, we've seen none of the trilateral talks that were happening between the United States, Russia and Ukraine, which were most important for pushing towards an end to this war.

是以，自戰爭開始以來，我們再也沒看到美國、俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間曾進行過對結束這場戰爭至關重要的三方會談。

Of course, there are other implications as well, including limits on the military equipment that Ukraine can get because it's being used in the Middle East.

當然，還有其他影響，包括烏克蘭能獲得的軍事裝備受到限制，因為這些裝備正用於中東。

And as I mentioned before, the economic benefits that Russia is getting from the reduced sanctions and higher oil prices.

正如我之前提到的，俄羅斯從制裁放寬和油價上漲中獲得的經濟利益。

Yeah, speaking of the sanctions, this all comes at a time when some of these sanctions are being lifted.

是的，說到制裁，這一切都發生在其中一些制裁被解除的時候。

How does this affect its ability to sustain its defensive position?

這會如何影響它維持防禦態勢的能力？

Well, Ukraine is facing a number of challenges.

嗯，烏克蘭正面臨著許多挑戰。

You know, one of them is the potential loss, the likely loss of what military assistance it was continuing to get from the United States.

你知道，其中一個就是它可能失去，很可能失去從美國持續獲得的軍事援助。

It relies most heavily from the United States on air defense.

它最依賴美國提供的防空系統。

And air defense is in high demand in the Middle East.

而中東地區對防空系統的需求很高。

So it's very unlikely that Ukraine will get additional Patriot missiles.

所以烏克蘭不太可能獲得額外的愛國者飛彈。

This means that its industrial infrastructure, the infrastructure that it's using to power its economy and its military are going to be most likely degraded.

這意味著它的工業基礎設施，也就是用來支撐其經濟和軍事的基礎設施，很可能會被削弱。

And that's going to put pressure on Ukraine's ability to fight and its ability to maintain its, its economy going forward.

這將對烏克蘭的戰鬥能力及其未來維持經濟的能力構成壓力。

The second factor is simply the lack of funding.

And we've seen that there are challenges in the EU to raising the necessary loan that was promised to Ukraine last at the end of last year due to objections from Hungary.

我們看到歐盟因為匈牙利的異議，在籌集去年年底承諾給烏克蘭的貸款時遇到了挑戰。

And so that means that in a couple of weeks, maybe six weeks, Ukraine will basically run out of money to fund its government, to fund its operations.

所以這意味著，幾週，也許六週後，烏克蘭基本上就會沒錢來資助政府、資助其運作了。

Now, we've seen Ukraine be very resilient.

現在，我們看到烏克蘭非常有韌性。

It has become very adept at using low cost asymmetric capabilities.

它已經非常擅長運用低成本的非對稱作戰能力。

So I do believe that it will try to continue to fight, but

所以我相信它會試圖繼續戰鬥，但是

it can only hold out for so long without cash or weapons.

沒有現金或武器，它也只能撐一段時間。

I'm just wondering, so what other options would it have possibly, you know, in terms of going to the table for negotiations?

我只是在想，那麼它還有什麼其他可能的選擇，你知道的，在談判桌上進行談判？

Would that push Ukraine to more concessions?

這會不會迫使烏克蘭做出更多讓步？

Well, it does put Ukraine at a disadvantage at the negotiating table.

嗯，這確實讓烏克蘭在談判桌上處於劣勢。

My, my view has long been that Ukraine's position gets worse over time.

我一直以來的看法是，烏克蘭的處境會隨著時間推移而變得更糟。

That time isn't really on Ukraine's side.

And the best deal that it's going to get is the deal that it can get today.

而且它能拿到的最好協議，就是它今天能拿到的協議。

And the deal, six months isn't going to look that much better.

六個月後，協議看起來不會好太多。

You know, that is, that means that the deal will be unsatisfying to a lot of people.

這樣一來，協議就會讓很多人覺得不滿意。

it still could be the, the best deal that Ukraine would get and it could leave Ukraine with most of its territory and the chance for economic prosperity going forward.

這仍然可能是烏克蘭能拿到的最好協議，而且能讓烏克蘭保住大部分領土，並有機會在未來實現經濟繁榮。

Now, there are a lot of issues that still have to be worked out.

現在，還有很多問題需要解決。

And I think the United States can help Ukraine to get the best deal possible.

我認為美國可以幫助烏克蘭爭取到最好的協議。

And that would mean making sure that Ukraine has the capabilities and the military that it needs to defend itself in the future.

這就意味著要確保烏克蘭擁有未來保衛自己的能力和軍隊。

As well as access to the weapons to arm that military and the economic resources it will need to fund its reconstruction.

以及讓烏克蘭軍隊獲得武器的管道，還有重建國家所需的經濟資源。

Jennifer Kavanaugh, thank you for speaking to us.

Jennifer Kavanaugh，謝謝你接受我們的訪問。