Name: 川普與伊朗開戰！比1929大蕭條更慘的風暴即將來襲！？ (Trump goes to war with Iran - What’s Coming is Worse Than 1929 Depression)
Uploaded: 2026-03-06T18:13:11.000Z
Duration: 11 min 16 s

過去簡單式

to 不定詞

And the real question right now is how much this war is going to cost.

現在真正的問題是這場戰爭會花多少錢。

進階程度副詞句型

This war is going to be so expensive that it's going to drag the United States into a financial crisis that is going to be way worse than the 1929 financial crash.

這場戰爭會貴到把美國拖進一場金融危機，比 1929 年的金融危機還要糟得多。

If the Great Depression lasted 10 years, this crisis, God knows how many years is going to last.

如果大蕭條持續了 10 年，這場危機，天曉得會持續多少年。

And to find out how much in total this war is going to cost, we all we have to do is just go back to the Iraq war.

要知道這場戰爭總共會花多少錢，我們只需要回頭看看伊拉克戰爭。

In total, the United states spent about $3 trillion to wage the Iraq war.

總共，美國花了大概 3 兆美元來打伊拉克戰爭。

But that's not the total cost of that war.

Because after the war you are going to have thousands of veterans who fought in that war and you still have to take care of them.

因為戰後，你會有成千上萬的退伍軍人，他們還得要照顧。

So the United States is still spending millions of dollars.

所以美國還在花費數百萬美元。

rather billion billions of dollars, even though that the war has been over for many, many years.

而是數千億美元，即使這場戰爭已經結束很多年了。

And unlike all other wars that the United States has fought in its entire history, the Iraq war was entirely funded with debt.

而且，跟美國歷史上打過的所有其他戰爭不一樣，伊拉克戰爭是完全靠借貸來資助的。

The United States did not use any taxpayers money, but rather its borrowed money.

美國沒有動用任何納稅人的資金，而是動用了借貸資金。

And that's why if you look at the debt to GDP ratio, you will see that in six years after the Iraq war, the debt to GDP ratio has doubled.

這就是為什麼，如果你看看債務與GDP比率，你會發現伊拉克戰爭結束後的六年裡，債務與GDP比率翻了一倍。

Which means that that money that was borrowed was never paid off.

這代表那些借來的錢從來沒有還清。

And until today, the United States is still paying hundreds of billions of dollars in interest payments from that war.

直到今天，美國還在為那場戰爭支付數千億美元的利息。

And that is very strange because even the greatest war that has been fought in the history of the United States, which was World War II, half of it was financed with taxpayers money and the other half was financed by borrowing money.

這很奇怪，因為即使是美國歷史上最偉大的戰爭，也就是第二次世界大戰，其中一半是靠納稅人資金，另一半是靠借貸資金。

But the Iraq war for some reason was entirely funded with debt.

但伊拉克戰爭卻因為某些原因，完全是靠借貸來資助的。

Which means that if we actually include all the money that the United States has spent because of that war, it is far more than $3 trillion.

這意味著，如果我們把美國因為這場戰爭花費的所有錢都算進去，那遠遠超過了 3 兆美元。

Because the government is still paying hundreds of billions of dollars every single year just because it borrowed that money back in the days.

因為政府每年還在支付數千億美元，就只是因為當年借了那些錢。

And now let's take Iraq and compare it to Iran.

那我們現在來比較一下伊拉克和伊朗。

Now this country is two or three times larger than Iraq.

這個國家比伊拉克大兩到三倍。

This country has two or three times the population of Iraq.

這個國家的人口是伊拉克的兩到三倍。

And unlike Iraq, that was literally a flat desert, Iran is a mountainous country.

而且跟伊拉克不一樣，伊拉克真的是一片平坦的沙漠，伊朗是個山區國家。

Which means that invading that country is going to be a lot more expensive.

這意味著入侵那個國家會貴上很多。

I am not even talking about the lives that will be lost.

All I am talking about is the financial cost on the United States.

我只在談論對美國的財政成本。

So if the Iraq war, according to the least estimates, cost the United States $3 trillion, you can confidently say that this war is going to cost at least double that amount.

所以如果說伊拉克戰爭，根據最低估計，花了美國 3 兆美元，那你很有把握地可以說，這場戰爭的代價至少是那個金額的兩倍。

And you also have to factor in inflation.

So for a fact, the final price tag is going to be anything between 6 to 10 trillion dollars.

所以事實上，最終的價格標籤會在 6 到 10 兆美元之間。

Now, you have to take a look at the US national debt and you have to ask yourself a question.

現在，你得看看美國國債，然後問自己一個問題。

Can the United States afford an extra six to $10 trillion to start another major war against a country that is three times larger than a war that cost the United States $3 trillion?

美國負擔得起再多花六到十兆美元，去發動另一場對抗一個國家的大型戰爭嗎？這個國家的規模是讓美國花了三兆美元的那場戰爭的三倍大。

I am against all wars, regardless of the war.

我反對所有戰爭，不管是什麼戰爭。

And I'm not gonna talk in this video about the moral justification because we talk about investments, we talk about finance, and, and

在這個影片裡，我不會談論道德上的正當性，因為我們談論的是投資，我們談論的是金融，還有

we want to explore this from the financial perspective.

Another major cost that is going to be for this war is that Iran is one of the largest exporters of oil.

這場戰爭另一項主要的成本是，伊朗是最大的石油出口國之一。

And it stands right in the Strait of Hormuz where a third of the global oil moves.

而且它就位在荷姆茲海峽，全球三分之一的石油都經過這裡。

So if they are going to block that straight, oil prices are instantly going to skyrocket.

所以如果他們封鎖了這條海峽，油價會立刻飆漲。

And when oil prices rise, the price of everything rises.

而當油價上漲時，萬物的價格都會跟著上漲。

Inflation rises all across the globe, not just in the United States, because everything is transported from one place into another.

通貨膨脹會在全球各地發生，不只是在美國，因為所有東西都是從一個地方運送到另一個地方。

That chicken fillet doesn't instantly appears in Walmart that is closest to you, but

那個雞腿排並不是直接出現在你家附近的Walmart，

rather it's transported from one place into another.

而是從一個地方運送到另一個地方。

And that's why when oil prices rise, they cause massive inflation.

這就是為什麼當油價上漲時，會造成嚴重的通貨膨脹。

When the United States started the Iraq war, oil prices have crossed.

美國開始伊拉克戰爭時，油價就已經飆升了。

They literally doubled in the first two years and crossed $140 in the next couple of years.

在最初的兩年裡，油價翻了一倍，接下來幾年更是突破了140美元。

So if oil prices double within a year or two because of this war, and

所以，如果因為這場戰爭，油價在一年或兩年內翻倍，

then they cross $200 because Iran has a much bigger ability to close the supply of oil to the rest of the world, just imagine how much in total it is going to cost the United States of America when inflation rises, for whatever reason that is, the Federal Reserve on the other side will not have the ability to lower down prices.

然後又因為伊朗有更大的能力封鎖石油供應給全世界，油價突破200美元，那請想像一下，美國總共要付出多少代價，當通貨膨脹無論因為什麼原因而上漲時，聯準會將無法降低物價。

We just thought that the Supreme Court have shut down Trump's tariffs and there is a window to lower down interest rates.

我們本來以為最高法院駁回了Trump的關稅，而現在是降低利率的好時機。

And finally, Americans will enjoy the lower cost of borrowing.

終於，美國人可以享受較低的借貸成本。

But if this is going to happen, then forget about lower interest rates.

但如果這真的發生了，那就別想著利率會降低了。

Unless Kevin Warsh is going to be a yes man and he will be lowering interest rates regardless of what happens in the economy.

除非Kevin Warsh會當個應聲蟲，不管經濟發生什麼事都降息。

Now, the final question is who, who exactly is going to fund this war?

那麼，最後的問題是，誰，到底是誰會來資助這場戰爭？

Do you think the US Government right now will raise taxes to fund this war?

你覺得現在的美國政府會為了資助這場戰爭而加稅嗎？

Now, last year, the government has raised about 5.2 or $5.3 trillion from taxes.

去年，政府從稅收中增加了大約5.2兆或5.3兆美元。

that should be Enough to launch any kind of war, even a war that is on scale of World War II.

而且應該足夠發動任何規模的戰爭，即使是像第二次世界大戰那樣規模的戰爭。

But the problem is that if you look at the total spending on the other side, it is way more than the government has raised from taxes.

但問題是，如果你看看另一邊的總支出，遠遠超過政府從稅收中籌到的金額。

The government last year spent over $7 trillion.

So in total, the government had about 1.7 to 1.8 trillion dollar deficit.

所以總計，政府大約有1.7到1.8兆美元的赤字。

And a trillion dollars of that were just the interest payments because the government has not paid off its debts over the last how many years the government has been borrowing money, including the $3 trillion that the government has borrowed to launch the Iraq war.

其中一兆美元只是支付利息，因為政府多年來都沒有還清債務，政府一直在借錢，包括為了發動伊拉克戰爭而借的3兆美元。

So you can easily assume that this war will also be completely financed by raising money, by borrowing money and growing the national debt.

所以你可以輕鬆地假設，這場戰爭也將完全透過籌集資金、借貸資金來支應，並增加國債。

Now, as of the time that I am recording this video, the total debt to GDP ratio is 125%.

現在，在我錄製這段影片的時候，債務與GDP比率總共是125%。

If you include both the public debt and the intra governmental debt.

如果你同時包含公債和政府內部債務的話。

If you add another $6 trillion within the next two to three years, it is easily going to grow the US national debt to about 150% debt to GDP ratio.

如果在接下來的兩到三年內再增加6兆美元，美國國債的債務與GDP比率很容易就會成長到大約150%。

Now, at that rate, interest rates are not coming down anytime soon.

照這個速度，利率短期內不會下降。

Assuming that interest rates will be the same as they are, or maybe even slightly higher.

假設利率會和現在一樣，甚至可能稍微高一點。

Because there is going to be so much chaos and not much capital will be flowing to the United States, not much demand is going to be for the US Debt.

因為將會有太多的混亂，而且不會有太多資金流入美國，對美國國債的需求也不會很高。

So interest rates for the US Debt could be slightly higher.

所以美國國債的利率可能會稍微高一點。

The government will be paying about $2 trillion in interest payments in the next two to three years.

政府在接下來的兩到三年內將支付大約2兆美元的利息。

So if you want to know the final price tag that is going to cost the United States of America for this war, it is every single year to pay an extra trillion dollars in interest payments.

所以如果你想知道這場戰爭最終會讓美國付出多少代價，那就是每年要多支付一兆美元的利息。

Now something like that was expected to happen anyways, but

現在這種情況本來就預期會發生，

that would have happened 20 or 30 years from now.

但那應該是二三十年後的事了。

The United States still had a window of opportunity to gradually devalue the dollar and fix the debt to GDP ratio.

美國還有機會可以逐步讓美元貶值，並改善債務與GDP比率。

But with this, it is going to accelerate it.

但這樣一來，情況會加速惡化。

Which means that in two to three years, a third of all government spending could literally just go into interest payments.

這意味著在兩三年內，政府支出的三分之一可能就只是支付利息。

So the government is receiving about $5.3 trillion in taxes.

所以政府收到的稅金大約是 5.3 兆美元。

In two to three years, that number could rise to almost $6 trillion.

在兩三年內，這個數字可能會上升到將近 6 兆美元。

So you are spending $2 trillion in interest payments and you're not even making $6 trillion from taxes.

所以你支付了 2 兆美元的利息，但稅收甚至還不到 6 兆美元。

Do you see the financial catastrophe that the government is facing?

你看到了政府面臨的金融災難嗎？

So any small even increase in interest rates is going to cost the government extra hundreds of billions of dollars, potentially even trillions of dollars.

所以利率只要稍微調高一點點，政府就得多花數千億美元，甚至可能高達兆美元。

So if you want to look at the final cost of the war With Iran, it's not just about the $6 trillion that the government is going to spend, but

所以如果你想看看這場與伊朗戰爭的最終代價，不只是政府要花的 6 兆美元，

rather it is going to accelerate the interest payments to two or three trillion dollars.

而是會加速支付 2 到 3 兆美元的利息。

And because the government has already made it clear these are not my words, they this is what the Fed said, that paying off the US Debt is impossible for the US Government.

而且政府已經說得很清楚了，這不是我說的，是聯準會說的，美國政府根本不可能還清美國國債。

The only way to move forward is for the United States to maintain the interest payments on its debts.

唯一的前進方式就是美國要維持支付債務的利息。

And if these interest payments are going to spike an extra trillion dollars, ask yourself, do you want to pay an extra trillion dollars for God knows how many years?

如果這些利息支付又要因為這場戰爭而暴增一兆美元，你問問自己，你願意多付一兆美元，而且還不知道要付多少年嗎？

Or I would be more precise years for how many decades in interest payments just because of this war?

或者更精確地說，因為這場戰爭，你願意在幾十年裡，光是支付利息就多付一兆美元嗎？

And that is the final price tag for the United States.

There might not be many things that you can do, but

what you can do for a fact is that is to protect your money.

你確定可以做的一件事，就是保護你的錢。

Because when interest payments rise so much, it means that more printing of money is coming by the US Government or to be more precise by the Federal Reserve.

因為利息支付大增，這意味著美國政府，或者更精確地說，聯準會，會印更多錢。

So the devaluation of the dollar is most likely going to be a lot faster than we have imagined.

所以美元貶值的速度，很可能比我們想像的還要快。

We thought that there might be another 10 to 20 years left, but

我們本來以為還有個十到二十年，但是

it seems like that is going to happen a lot sooner.

So if you have not started investing yet, it is time to do that.

所以如果你還沒開始投資，現在就是時候了。

Because a few months from now it might be very late or maybe a few weeks from now it is going to be a lot late.

因為幾個月後可能就太晚了，甚至幾週後就可能已經太晚了。

So if you have not started, start investing.

所以如果你還沒開始，就開始投資吧。

Buy assets that appreciate in value regardless of the value of the dollar.

買進那些不管美元價值如何都會增值的資產。

Every time the government or the Fed prints money, the value of these assets rise.

政府或聯準會每次印鈔票，這些資產的價值就會跟著上漲。

如果你有房地產，那就太好了。