Name: 你一生中最重要的科技竟然是這小小的晶片？| Chris Miller (The most important piece of technology in your lifetime is this tiny chip | Chris Miller)
Uploaded: 2026-02-20T18:27:52.000Z
Duration: 54 min 36 s

When we think about technology, we think about social media, we think about search engines, we think about apps on our phones.

講到科技，我們就會想到社群媒體、搜尋引擎，還有手機上的各種 App。

但這一切的基礎，其實是晶片。

轉承詞

The reason that technology that we think of exists is because every year chips get better and better.

我們現在想到的這些科技之所以存在，是因為晶片一年比一年更厲害。

And so I think we've actually misunderstood what technology means.

所以我認為，我們其實誤解了科技的真正意義。

We think of the easy part, which is writing the software, but

我們想到的是比較簡單的部分，也就是寫軟體，但是

the hard part is actually manufacturing the chips that give us the advances in computing, that enable us to have a computer on our phone or to attach devices to the Internet.

比較困難的部分，其實是製造晶片，這些晶片讓我們在運算上不斷進步，才能在手機裡有電腦，或是把各種裝置連上網路。

All that has been made possible by better and better semiconductors.

這一切都是因為半導體越來越進步，才變得可能。

I'm Chris Miller, a professor at the Fletcher School and author of Chip the Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology.

我是 Chris Miller，來自佛萊契爾學院的教授，也是《Chip the Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology》這本書的作者。

Well, I first got interested in chips when I realized you really couldn't understand how the world works without them.

我第一次對晶片產生興趣，是因為我發現，如果沒有它們，你真的無法理解這個世界是如何運作的。

Whether it's walking around your house and realizing there are chips in almost every device you rely on, or trying to understand big shifts in international trade, there's no good that is traded more than semiconductors.

無論是在家裡走動，發現你依賴的幾乎所有裝置裡都有晶片，或是試圖理解國際貿易的重大轉變，沒有什麼比半導體更重要的交易品了。

Or looking at the political dynamics around the world.

With the US China competition focusing on technology, chips are at the center of all of these major trends.

隨著美中競爭聚焦在科技上，晶片就處於所有這些重大趨勢的核心。

A chip is a piece of silicon, often the size of your fingernail.

晶片是一塊矽，通常只有指甲那麼大。

And in it is carved thousands or millions, in some cases billions of tiny devices called transistors, which flip circuits on or off, on and off.

裡面蝕刻著數千、數百萬，甚至數十億個稱為電晶體的小裝置，它們會不斷地開關電路。

And when they're on, they produce a one, when they're off, they produce a zero.

當它們開啟時，產生一；當它們關閉時，產生零。

And all of the ones and zeros undergirding computing, undergirding data storage.

而支撐著運算、支撐著資料儲存的，都是這些一和零。

All of your Instagram likes, all of your text messages, these are all just long strings of ones and zeros which are created on the chip by these circuits flipping on and off.

你所有的 Instagram 按讚、所有的簡訊，這些都只是一長串的一和零，是由這些不斷開關的電路在晶片上產生的。

There are a couple different categories of chips.

Some chips process data, other chips remember data.

有些晶片處理資料，有些晶片記憶資料。

And a third category turns real world signals like audio or pictures into ones and zeros so that they can then be processed or remembered.

而第三種晶片則能將真實世界的訊號，像是聲音或圖片，轉換成一和零，以便後續處理或儲存。

And so when we look at the world, we see pictures.

所以當我們看世界時，我們看到的是畫面。

But when a phone, for example, uses its camera to look at the world, it takes in lots of rays of light and then has to learn how to convert those into ones and zeros that can be stored.

但例如手機使用相機看世界時，它會接收到很多光線，然後必須學會如何將這些光線轉換成可以儲存的一和零。

And so there's very specific sensors for pictures, for sound, for radio waves that are used, semiconductors to convert these real world signals into strings and ones of zeros that can then be re represented as pictures later on.

所以有專門處理圖片、聲音、無線電波的感測器，利用半導體將這些真實世界的訊號轉換成一連串的一和零，之後才能重新呈現為圖片。

For example, when you pull a photo up on your phone, all of this is done by different types of semiconductors.

舉例來說，當你在手機上叫出一張照片時，所有這些都是由不同類型的半導體完成的。

So generally, chips have a foundation of silicon, but

所以一般來說，晶片是以矽為基礎，但

there are dozens of other materials that are layered on top to make the transistors at such tiny scale.

上面會堆疊數十種其他材料，來製造出如此微小的電晶體。

So a typical advanced chip could have several dozen materials.

所以一個典型的先進晶片可能會有數十種材料。

The foundation is silicon, but there are many other chemicals involved in the process.

基礎是矽，但過程中還會用到許多其他化學物質。

Yeah, it's true that sand is from silicon, and so are chips, but the similarities basically end there.

是的，沙子來自矽，晶片也是，但相似之處大致就到此為止了。

The silicon that's used in manufacturing chips is among the most purified elements that we have.

用於製造晶片的矽是我們擁有的最純淨的元素之一。

And the reason is that when you're manufacturing chips with tiny transistors, you need to place almost every atom perfectly to make those chips.

之所以如此，是因為當你用微小的電晶體製造晶片時，你需要將幾乎每個原子都完美放置，才能製造出這些晶片。

Which means that if your silicon or any other materials that you're using has even a single atomic impurity, it can cause defects in the way your chip functions.

這意味著，如果你的矽或你使用的任何其他材料即使只有一個原子的雜質，都可能導致晶片功能出現缺陷。

And so the production of the silicon wafers that are used in the chip manufacturing process requires extraordinary levels of purity.

是以，用於晶片製造過程的矽晶圓的生產需要極高的純度。

There's really just four companies in the world today that are capable of producing silicon wafers at the right level of purity, at the scale that's required for contemporary manufacturing.

世界上目前只有四家公司能夠以當代製造所需的規模，生產出達到適當純度等級的矽晶圓。

The good news is that there's silicon everywhere.

It's one of the most widely distributed elements in the earth's crust.

它是地殼中最普遍的元素之一。

The hard part is really the refin and the purification of silicon to make sure there aren't any impurities that could disrupt the manufacturing process.

困難的部分其實是矽的精煉和純化，以確保沒有可能幹擾製造過程的雜質。

So on top of your silicon, you could have boron, gallium, gallium arsenide, lots of different chemicals that are used.

所以在你的矽上面，你可能會用到硼、鎵、砷化鎵，還有很多不同的化學物質。

And every chip maker has its own proprietary process.

而每家晶片製造商都有自己專有的製程。

So we don't really know inside of a typical chip what materials are used, because chip makers usually keep it pretty secretive.

所以我們不太清楚一顆典型的晶片裡面到底用了什麼材料，因為晶片製造商通常都保密到家。

That's their special sauce that lets them manufacture chips with the right level of capability.

這就是他們獨門的祕方，讓他們能製造出具備適當效能的晶片。

Now, we're not going to run out of silicon, nor will we run out of the other materials that are generally used in chip making.

現在，我們不會遇到矽短缺的問題，也不會遇到其他一般用於晶片製造的材料短缺。

There are some concerns that certain materials are predominantly refined and processed in a single country.

有些人擔心某些材料主要由單一國家精煉和處理。

So for some of the materials, like gallium and germanium, China produces around 90% of those materials.

所以像鎵和鍺這些材料，中國就生產了其中大約90%。

So there's geopolitical issues that could interrupt supply, but

所以會有地緣政治問題可能中斷供應，但是

it's not going to be that we're running out of the capability to produce them.

這並不是說我們將會沒有能力生產它們。

I visited a bunch of chip making facilities over the course of the research.

在研究過程中，我參觀了好幾個晶片製造廠。

The interesting thing, though, is that when you go inside one of these massive facilities called fabs, what you find is that there are huge machines and not much else, because the manufacturing process has to be extraordinarily automated because humans are way too imprecise for manufacturing at nanometer Scale.

不過有趣的是，當你走進這些稱為 Fab 的巨大設施裡，你會發現裡面有巨大的機器，沒什麼別的，因為製造過程必須極度自動化，因為人類在奈米級的製造上太不精確了。

And so inside of a chip making facility, there are very few humans and lots of big machines that from the outside are impressive in their size.

所以晶片製造廠裡面，很少有人，有很多大型機器，從外面看，它們的尺寸就很驚人。

But you can't see what's actually happening because it's happening at microscopic level.

不過你沒辦法看到裡面實際在發生什麼，因為這都是在微觀層面進行的。

So there are a handful of companies that play a big role in the making of the machines that make chips.

所以有些公司在製造晶片機器的過程中扮演了很重要的角色。

A couple in the United States, one in the Netherlands, and one other large one in Japan.

美國有幾家，荷蘭有一家，日本還有一家大型公司。

Five companies play the dominant role in the manufacture of the machines that make chips.

有五家公司在製造晶片機器的過程中扮演主導角色。

And in some ways, it's actually harder to make the machines that make chips than it is to make the chips themselves, because these tools are among the most precise tools that have ever been deployed.

而且在某些方面，製造製造晶片的機器比製造晶片本身還要困難，因為這些工具是目前為止最精密的工具之一。

Just to give you one example, asml, a company based in the Netherlands, produces machines that are used in the manufacture of almost every high end chip today.

舉個例子，荷蘭的 ASML 公司生產的機器，幾乎所有現今的高階晶片製造都會用到。

And these machines are capable of manipulating materials at basically the atomic level to produce chips with billions and billions of transistors like those that are inside of your phone or that are used for training AI systems.

這些機器能夠在原子層級操控材料，製造出擁有數十億個電晶體的晶片，就像你手機裡面的，或是用於訓練 AI 系統的晶片一樣。

So there's a pretty small number of companies that make chips.

所以，製造晶片的公司數量其實不多。

And when you look at specific types of chips, you find that there's even more concentration.

而當你看看特定類型的晶片時，你會發現集中度更高。

The biggest chip maker in the world is the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

全球最大的晶片製造商是臺灣積體電路製造股份有限公司。

When it comes to advanced processor chips, like the chips in your phone or the chips in your computer, TSMC makes around 90% of them.

講到像你手機裡或電腦裡的這種高階處理器晶片，臺積電就佔了大概九成。

So they've got an extraordinary market share and are probably the most important semiconductor company and arguably the most important company in the world, because the chips that they produce we rely on for basically everything.

所以他們有非凡的市場佔有率，可能是最重要的半導體公司，甚至可以說是世界上最重要的公司，因為他們生產的晶片，我們基本上什麼都需要用到。

There's been a lot of consolidation in the chip industry over the past couple of decades, and

在過去幾十年來，晶片產業已經發生了很多整併，

it's been driven by economics and by technology.

這背後是由經濟和科技所驅動的。

Today, a single cutting edge chip making facility cost $20 billion.

現今，一座最先進的晶片製造廠就要價 200 億美元。

They're the most expensive factories in all of human history.

這些是人類歷史上最貴的工廠。

And so there's just a couple of companies that can afford to put up that sum of money on a regular basis to build more and more cutting edge facilities.

所以只有少數幾家公司能夠負擔得起定期拿出這麼一大筆錢來建造更多更先進的廠房。

And to make that work financially, you've got to produce a ton of chips.

而且為了讓這件事在財務上可行，你得要生產大量的晶片。

And so there are huge benefits that accrue to the largest firms.

是以，最大的公司能獲得巨大的優勢。

The more chips you produce, the more your cost structure makes sense and the better your technology gets, because you learn from every chip you manufacture, you gather data from it, and

你生產的晶片越多，你的成本結構就越合理，技術也越好，因為你從製造的每一顆晶片中學習，從中收集數據，

you tweak your manufacturing process to make sure you've got fewer and fewer impurities at every step.

你會調整製造流程，確保每一步的雜質都越來越少。

And so TSMC is both the world's largest chip maker, but

所以臺積電不只是全球最大的晶片製造商，

it's also the world's most advanced, precisely because it gathers more data than anyone else, because chipmaking requires ultra purified materials and hugely complex equipment.

更是全球最先進的，這正是因為它收集的數據比任何人都多，因為晶片製造需要超高純度的材料和極其複雜的設備。

There's not a single company that can do it on its own.

沒有任何一家公司能夠獨自完成。

Everyone requires a set of partnerships with supply chain providers to give them the materials and the intellectual property and the software and the tools that they need to produce advanced chips.

每個人都需要與供應鏈廠商建立合作夥伴關係，以獲得他們生產先進晶片所需的材料、知識產權、軟體和工具。

And so, if you take, for example, the primary processor inside of your smartphone, it was probably made in Taiwan, but

所以，舉例來說，你智慧型手機裡的主要處理器，很可能是在臺灣製造的，但

it was made in Taiwan using chip making tools from the Netherlands and from the United States and from Japan.

它是在臺灣用來自荷蘭、美國和日本的晶片製造工具生產的。

It was produced using chemicals from Japan and then often assembled and packaged in Malaysia before ending up inside of your smartphone.

它使用了來自日本的化學品生產，然後經常在馬來西亞組裝和封裝，最後才出現在你的智慧型手機裡。

A typical chip requires components and materials sourced from dozens of different companies because the process is simply too hard for any one company to do on its own.

一個典型的晶片需要來自數十家不同公司的零組件和材料，因為這個製程對任何一家公司來說都太難獨立完成了。

What is nanometer scale and how does it relate to the innovation process of silicon chips?

什麼是奈米級，它又跟矽晶片的創新過程有什麼關係呢？

A nanometer is a billionth of a meter, and chips today are measured in nanometers.

奈米是十億分之一公尺，而現在的晶片就是以奈米來計算的。

If you look at the chip inside of your phone, for example, and

舉例來說，如果你看看你手機裡的晶片，

try to measure the size of the transistors, of which there will be billions on your smartphone chip, each one of these will be measured in a handful of nanometers.

試著測量裡面電晶體的大小，你的手機晶片裡會有數十億個電晶體，每一個電晶體的大小都是以幾個奈米來計算的。

And so that makes them only slightly larger than atoms, smaller than any sort of living thing, far smaller than a bacteria, smaller than a mitochondria, half the size for the most cutting edge transistors of a coronavirus.

所以，這讓它們的大小隻比原子稍微大一點，比任何生物都小，遠小於細菌，比粒線體還小，最先進的電晶體尺寸甚至只有新冠病毒的一半。

There's basically nothing we manufacture at such tiny scale as we do with semiconductors.

基本上，我們在半導體製造上達到的這種微小尺度，是我們在其他任何製造業都做不到的。

Every year we make more transistors than we've made all other goods combined in all of human history.

每年我們製造的電晶體數量，比人類歷史上製造的所有其他商品加起來的總和還要多。

And in fact, nothing else really comes close to a typical smartphone chip could have 10 billion transistors just in the main processor chip.

事實上，沒有其他東西能比得上，一個典型智慧型手機的晶片，光是主處理器晶片就可能有 100 億個電晶體。

A big data center run by Google or Amazon Web services would have more transistors than you could plausibly count.

像 Google 或 Amazon Web services 這種大型資料中心，裡面擁有的電晶體數量，是你難以想像的。

We know that we make more transistors than there are cells in the human body, for example.

我們知道，我們製造的電晶體數量，比人體裡的細胞數量還要多。

We don't even know how many we make in aggregate because there are just so many.

我們根本不知道總共製造了多少，因為數量實在太龐大了。

Moore's law predicts that the number of transistors per chip, and

摩爾定律預測，每隔幾年，單一晶片上的電晶體數量，

as a result, the computing power per chip will double every couple of years.

以及是以而來的晶片運算能力，都會加倍。

And that's been empirically true since 1960s, which means that the capabilities of chips have gotten vastly better and continue to get much, much better at a faster rate than anything else.

這點自 1960 年代以來就已經被證實，這意味著晶片的能力已經大幅提升，而且還在以比其他任何東西都快的速度持續進步。

So I like to think, for example, of airplanes to illustrate the difference.

所以我喜歡用飛機來舉例說明這種差異。

If airplanes doubled in speed every two years from the 1960s up to the Present, we'd be flying faster, literally, than the speed of light.

如果從 1960 年代至今，飛機的速度每兩年就加倍，我們現在飛行的速度，將會超越光速。

Chips have increased in that capability because the scale of the transistors has shrunk to the level that today we're manufacturing them smaller than even viruses.

晶片的能力之所以提升，是因為電晶體的尺寸已經縮小到今天我們製造的尺寸比病毒還要小。

And that has enabled the explosion of computing power, both in terms of the computing capabilities in high power data centers or in your phone, but

這也促成了運算能力的爆炸性成長，無論是高功率資料中心或你手機裡的運算能力，

also the application of computing to all sorts of devices.

也讓運算應用到各式各樣的裝置上。