Name: 德國的中國兩難：出口下滑，競爭加劇 | DW 新聞 (Germany’s China dilemma: Exports fall as competition rises | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-02-13T17:11:20.000Z
Duration: 13 min 14 s

程度副詞

The Chinese market used to be really a gold mine for German companies.

中國市場以前對德國公司來說真的是金礦。

轉承詞

Now it's producing profit warnings for a lot of German companies because they're struggling there.

現在很多德國公司在那裡掙扎，所以出現了盈利預警。

It's not translating to more German jobs and more German prosperity.

這並沒有轉化為更多德國的工作和更多的德國繁榮。

They've seen their competitive edge erode very quickly.

他們的競爭優勢已經迅速被侵蝕。

What Germany really needs to do is talk less about China and do more.

德國真正需要做的是少談中國，多做事。

Is Germany, the world's third biggest economy, heading for a China shock?

世界第三大經濟體德國，是否正走向中國衝擊？

Over the past year, German political leaders, central bankers, business association and trade unions have begun talking openly about the risks of intensifying industrial competition with China.

過去一年，德國政治領袖、中央銀行官員、商業協會和工會都開始公開談論與中國工業競爭加劇的風險。

This debate has intensified as Friedrich Metz prepares to make his first visit to China as German Chancellor.

隨著 Friedrich Metz 即將以德國總理身份首次訪問中國，這場辯論已經加劇。

The rhetoric, however, hasn't been matched by decisive policy action.

然而，這些言論並沒有伴隨果斷的政策行動。

Says research group Rhodium is in its latest paper called Germany's China Shock Revisited.

根據研究機構 Rhodium 的最新論文《德國的中國衝擊再探》。

We're joined by Rhodium's senior advisor, Noah Barkin to talk us through this.

我們請到 Rhodium 的資深顧問 Noah Barkin 來為我們解析。

Noah, thanks very much for taking the time today.

Noah，非常感謝您今天撥冗前來。

Now, two years ago, you pointed out that the close economic relationship between Germany and China in the first two decades of this century were at an end and that a period of intense industrial competition had begun.

現在，兩年前您就指出，德國與中國在本世紀前二十年的緊密經濟關係已經結束，而激烈的工業競爭時期已經開始。

Yes, Clifford, we did a note a couple years ago called Tipping Point, which pointed to three trends.

是的，Clifford，我們幾年前寫了一份報告，叫做「轉捩點」，其中指出了三個趨勢。

The decline in German exports to China, declining market share and profits for German companies in China, and

德國出口到中國的下滑、德國公司在中國的市場佔有率和利潤下降，以及

perhaps the most important intensifying competition between German companies and Chinese companies in third markets.

或許最重要的是，德國公司和中國公司在第三方市場的競爭日益激烈。

And so what we did in our new note was sort of take a new look at all of these three trends.

所以，我們在新報告中，重新審視了這三個趨勢。

And I think across the board, we've seen a deterioration from the German point of view of these three trends.

我認為從德國的角度來看，這三個趨勢普遍都出現了惡化。

So we've seen German exports to China, they fell about 9% just in the past year, and

我們看到德國對中國的出口，光是去年就下降了約 9%，而

they're down almost a quarter since 2022.

它們自 2022 年以來已經下降了將近四分之一。

So imagine that a quarter of German exports have disappeared in the last three years or so.

所以，想像一下，在過去三年左右的時間裡，德國出口的四分之一已經消失了。

And then on market share, the Chinese market used to be really a gold mine for German companies.

然後在市場佔有率方面，中國市場曾經是德國公司真正的金礦。

Lucrative profits, a source of lucrative profits.

豐厚的利潤，豐厚利潤的來源。

現在，這讓許多德國公司發出盈利預警，因為它們在那裡舉步維艱。

And, and then competition on third markets has.

然後，然後第三方市場的競爭已經。

And we're seeing, you know, we've seen this for a while in certain sectors like machinery, but

我們看到，你知道，我們已經在機械等特定行業看到這一點有一段時間了，但是

German companies are also struggling against Chinese competitors that are offering much cheaper products.

德國公司也在與提供更便宜產品的中國競爭對手競爭。

So is it fair to say that, you know, with all these tech advances, say, for example, and

所以，我們是不是可以說，你知道，隨著這些科技進步，像是，舉個例子，還有

industrialization that we've seen in China and industrial policy, that China is getting better at doing Germany than Germany is.

中國的工業化和產業政策，中國在做德國的事情上，已經比德國自己做得更好了。

I mean, in past decades, Germany, it was really a sort of, to use a Chinese phrase, a win, win relationship because German companies produced the products that a growing China really needed, right?

我的意思是，在過去幾十年，德國，這真的可以說是，用中國的一句話來說，是一種雙贏的關係，因為德國公司生產了正在成長的中國真正需要的產品，對吧？

The cars, the machine tools, the industrial goods, also the technological know how.

汽車、機械工具、工業品，還有技術知識。

But that has reversed, as you said, over the past five to 10 years.

但正如你所說，在過去五到十年，情況已經逆轉了。

And in many sectors where Germany was really dominant, China is now in the lead.

而且在許多德國曾經真正佔優勢的領域，中國現在已經領先了。

So this has been a sort of a reversal of fortunes for German companies.

所以，這對德國公司來說，可說是時運逆轉。

And it's also important to note that in the Chinese market, you know, this is a market that is very protected.

而且也要注意，在中國市場，你知道，這是一個受到嚴密保護的市場。

So we've seen also a change where Chinese authorities have been demanding that German companies localize their production, localize their supply chains.

所以我們也看到一個轉變，中國當局一直要求德國公司在地化他們的生產，在地化他們的供應鏈。

And so we've seen a bit of a decoupling from German production on the one hand, and

所以我們看到一方面是德國生產的脫鉤，

German prosperity, German jobs, and on the other hand, success in the Chinese market.

德國的繁榮、德國的工作，另一方面是在中國市場的成功。

So German companies are having trouble exporting to China and increasing their producing in China.

所以德國公司在出口到中國以及增加在中國的生產方面遇到了困難。

So even if they are having some success in China, it's not translating to more German jobs and more German prosperity.

所以即使他們在中國取得了一些成功，這並沒有轉化為更多的德國工作和更多的德國繁榮。

You're describing, to put it mildly, I suppose, a very serious situation here.

你所描述的，我想，情況非常嚴峻。

And how big do you think the awareness is of this in China?

你認為中國對此有多大的認知？

Because all we hear about is big, the big companies like BASF and Volkswagen saying we need more China.

因為我們聽到的都是像BASF和Volkswagen這樣的大公司說我們需要更多中國。

And yet the situation you're describing seems to be, seems to be the opposite, that there's a serious situation developing.

然而你描述的情況似乎恰恰相反，一個嚴峻的局面正在形成。

Well, I think we have had a significant change in the narrative on China over the, just over the past year, I would say you have companies, carmakers, chemicals companies, machine tools companies that are calling increasingly for either trade defense measures from Brussels or the introduction of local content rules, sort of made in Europe rules.

嗯，我認為在過去一年裡，關於中國的敘事發生了重大轉變，我會說，汽車製造商、化工公司、工具機公司越來越呼籲歐盟採取貿易保護措施，或者引入在地生產規則，類似於「歐洲製造」的規則。

So among the companies there has been, I think, a shift.

所以，在這些公司之間，我認為發生了一個轉變。

Of course, there are companies that have invested very heavily in China and that are still heavily dependent on the Chinese market.

當然，有些公司在中國投入了大量資金，而且仍然非常依賴中國市場。

So they're not willing to, to give up their presence there.

所以他們不願意放棄他們在那裡的業務。

They're not talking about decoupling, but they are becoming increasingly worried.

他們沒有談論脫鉤，但他們確實越來越擔心。

And I would say in some sectors it's really a sense of panic because they've seen their competitive edge erode very quickly.

我認為在某些行業，這真的有一種恐慌感，因為他們看到自己的競爭優勢迅速受到侵蝕。

On the political side, I think the tone has also changed.

在政治方面，我認為語氣也有所改變。

But as we note in the report, I think the rhetoric hasn't always been matched with real policy action.

但正如我們在報告中指出的，我認為這些言論並不總是與實際的政策行動相符。

I think the Merzk government, in power since May, the first six months, was very focused on Ukraine, Russia, on dealing with the Trump administration, transatlantic ties.

我認為自五月以來執政的梅爾茨政府，在前六個月，非常專注於烏克蘭、俄羅斯、處理川普政府、跨大西洋關係。

Since late last year, it has Shifted its focus to the domestic economy and China.

自去年年底以來，它的重點已轉向國內經濟和中國。

The risks in the China economic relationship have sort of been gotten short shrift and I think that will change now with merits going to China.

中國經濟關係中的風險有點被忽視了，我認為隨著梅爾茨前往中國，情況將會改變。

It is refocusing the government on the challenge from China.

這將使政府重新聚焦於來自中國的挑戰。

所以這將會是一趟非常有趣的行程。

I mean in some ways the economic situation in China is, isn't very helpful for.

我的意思是，中國的經濟狀況在某些方面，對德國公司來說幫助不大。

It is the opposite of helpful for, for German firms right now because Chinese consumers aren't spending money and they're also trying to export their way out of, out of the economic doldrums.

這對德國公司來說是適得其反，因為中國消費者沒有花錢，而且他們也試圖透過出口來擺脫經濟低迷。

Are there any signs that Chinese firms are hitting German exports to other markets?

有跡象顯示中國公司正在影響德國出口到其他市場嗎？

Not, you know, we say within the region or other markets globally?

在區域內或其他全球市場上呢？

We take a look in our note at global export market share.

我們在報告中查看了全球出口市場佔有率。

So and we see that in a number of, of sectors, power generation, machinery, that Chinese companies are now accelerating their market share gains outside of China, including in Europe.

所以我們看到在許多產業，像是發電、機械，中國公司現在正加速他們在中國以外的市場佔有率增長，包括歐洲。

Now I think there are some markets where the German companies are still holding up well, especially markets well, obviously in Europe, but

現在我認為有些市場，德國公司仍然表現良好，尤其是在歐洲市場，但

also on Europe's periphery, the UK for example, on the EU's periphery, the UK, Turkey.

還有歐洲的邊緣地帶，像是英國，歐盟的邊緣地帶，英國、土耳其。

So they're holding up there fairly well mainly because there are trade agreements, customs agreements.

所以它們在那裡表現還算不錯，主要是因為有貿易協定、關稅協定。

But if you look beyond that in other parts of Asia, Africa, Latin America, China is making huge gains against German companies.

但如果我們看看歐洲以外的亞洲、非洲、拉丁美洲，中國正在大幅超越德國公司。

So do you think we will see political countermeasures to combat this specter of deindustrialization?

所以你認為我們會看到政治上的反制措施，來對抗這種去工業化的幽靈嗎？

Well, I think we have an interesting debate going on in Germany.

嗯，我認為在德國有一場有趣的辯論正在進行。

The European Commission describes its, I guess you would say economic security or de risking policy along three pillars.

歐洲委員會描述了它的，我想你會說是經濟安全或去風險政策，分為三個支柱。

Protect is about trade, defense, local content restrictions, cybersecurity related restrictions on Chinese companies trying to come into the European market.

保護是關於貿易、國防、在地成分限制，以及針對試圖進入歐洲市場的中國公司的網路安全相關限制。

Promote is about promoting companies either by reducing bureaucracy or completion of the single market.

促進是關於透過減少官僚程序或完成單一市場來推動公司發展。

That's something that is on the agenda at the European level this week with leaders meeting in Belgium.

這是在歐洲層級本週的議程上，領導人將在比利時會面。

And then there's the partner side which is really clinching trade deals with, with other trading partners like India, like the Mercosur countries.

然後是夥伴的部分，這部分是跟其他貿易夥伴，像是印度、像是南方共同市場國家，來談判貿易協議。

So Germany is I think very focused on the promote and partner side, less so on the protect side.

我想德國非常專注在促進和夥伴這兩塊，在保護這塊就比較少。

And if you look at the rest of Europe, look to France.

如果你看看歐洲其他國家，像是法國。

France is very focused on the protect side.

So you have a bit of a Franco German divide on what the solution, proper solution is.

所以你在法德之間，對於什麼是正確的解決方案，會有一點分歧。

I think it'll be very important for Merzoue when he is in China to sort of bridge this gap, present a united European front.

我想這對梅爾茲來說會非常重要，當他在中國時，要試著縮小這個差距，呈現一個團結的歐洲陣線。

I think ultimately if Chinese companies feel that they can export to Europe, they will have little incentive to invest.

我想最終如果中國公司覺得他們可以出口到歐洲，他們就不太會有投資的動機。

It will be very difficult for Europe to deal with this overcapacity issue that you mentioned, the flood of cheap Chinese exports into Europe.

歐洲要處理你提到的這個產能過剩的問題，還有大量廉價的中國商品湧入歐洲，會非常困難。

So Germany needs to, needs to embrace all three pillars, protect, partner and promote.

所以德國需要，需要擁抱這三個支柱：保護、夥伴和促進。

So we mentioned that Friedrich Martz is heading to Beijing shortly.

所以我們剛才提到，Friedrich Metz 即將前往北京。

What advice would you give him as he packs his bags to go to Beijing?

he 要打包去北京了，你會給他什麼建議呢？

Well, I think what Germany really needs to do is talk less about China and do more.

嗯，我認為德國真正需要做的是少談中國，多做事。

I think what we've seen in recent years, including in the previous German government, was this sense that if you talk tough on China, then you've done the job.

我覺得這幾年，包括前德國政府，都有一種感覺，就是如果你對中國態度強硬，你就已經完成了任務。

Teddy Roosevelt, the former US President, used to talk about speaking softly and carrying a big stick.

美國前總統老羅斯福曾說過「溫柔地說話，但手裡要拿著大棒」。

I think in the past, Germany, certainly in recent years has been talking loudly and carrying a small stick.

我覺得過去，德國，尤其近幾年，一直是大聲嚷嚷，但手裡卻拿著小棒子。

I think that Friedrich Meirz understands this.

我認為 Friedrich Metz 明白這一點。

So I don't think he's going to go to China sort of with all guns blazing, criticizing China publicly.

所以我不認為他會帶著「火力全開」的姿態去中國，公開批評中國。

I think he will have a very tough message for the Chinese leadership behind closed doors.

我認為他會私下向中國領導層傳達一個非常強硬的訊息。

But I don't think we're going to see this public criticism of China the way we saw, for example, by the previous foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock.

但我不認為我們會看到像前外交部長 Annalena Baerbock 那樣公開批評中國的情況。

At the same time, we're not going to see a sort of feel good, cozy a visit like we saw from Mark Carney or Keir Starmer, the Canadian and British prime ministers.

同時，我們也不會看到像加拿大總理 Mark Carney 或英國首相 Keir Starmer 那種「感覺良好」、親切的訪問。