Name: 「我什麼都沒了」——比特幣到底怎麼了？！ ("I Just Lost Everything" - WTF Happened To Bitcoin?!)
Uploaded: 2026-02-09T14:23:41.000Z
Duration: 16 min 11 s

程度副詞

Okay, in all seriousness, even though bitcoin was the best performing asset of 2024 and of the last decade, today the tables have completely turned.

好了，說真的，雖然 bitcoin 在 2024 年和過去十年都是表現最好的資產，但今天情況完全逆轉了。

Bitcoin is quickly falling down 45% from its all time high.

Bitcoin 正快速從歷史新高下跌 45%。

People are getting their entire accounts liquidated overnight.

人們的帳戶在 overnight 就被清算光了。

And even Michael Saylor, who owns 3.4% of all Bitcoin in existence, is now more than $6.5 billion underwater.

就連擁有全部 Bitcoin 3.4% 的 Michael Saylor，現在也虧損超過 65 億美元。

So now that people are once again mortgaging their homes to buy the dip, I think it's critical that we talk about what's happening.

所以現在大家又開始抵押房子來逢低買入，我覺得我們必須好好談談現在發生了什麼事。

The bull and bear case for today's value.

How bad the sell off could realistically get, why some people believe it could be going down to zero, and

拋售實際可能有多糟，為什麼有些人認為它會跌到零，以及

when you should actually buy in based on the data.

根據數據，你應該什麼時候真的買入。

And once you see it, you'll understand why this next move matters so much more than anything else that's happened before.

一旦你看到了，就會明白為什麼下一步的行動比之前發生的任何事都重要得多。

Although before we start, if you appreciate the last minute breaking news videos like this, it would mean the world to me if you hit the like button or subscribe if you haven't done that already.

不過在我們開始之前，如果你喜歡這類即時新聞影片，請幫我按讚或訂閱，我會非常感謝。

Yes, I hate asking for it, but it does help out tremendously.

沒錯，我討厭這樣要求，但這真的非常有幫助。

And as a thank you for doing that, here's a picture of a flamingo.

作為感謝，這裡有一張火鶴的照片。

So thanks so much and also big thank you to Incogni for sponsoring this video.

非常感謝，也要特別感謝 Incogni 對這個影片的贊助。

好的，那我們就別浪費時間了。

Here's the reason we're seeing a bitcoin sell off.

這就是我們看到 bitcoin 拋售的原因。

At this point we really have five catalysts that are responsible for today's price collapse.

目前有五個催化劑造成了今天的價格崩潰。

As mundane as it might sound, investors are rotating out of speculative assets and into more safe havens as economic uncertainty is increasing.

聽起來可能很平凡，但隨著經濟不確定性增加，投資人正從投機性資產轉向更多避險資產。

After all, stocks are trading at relatively high valuations.

Three out of four conditions are meant for AI to be considered a bubble.

四個條件中有三個符合 AI 被視為保麗龍。

And with interest rates expected to remain relatively the same for the next few months, Bitcoin becomes a sell the news event.

由於利率預計在未來幾個月內保持相對不變，bitcoin 成了一個賣事實的事件。

Especially as people take their losses for tax loss harvesting.

尤其是在人們為了稅損收割而認賠出場的時候。

大多數人買入 bitcoin 是為了對沖通貨膨脹、美元走弱以及購買力下降。

Most people purchase Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, a weakening dollar and less purchasing power.

但當美元開始走強時，買入 bitcoin 的理由就變少了。

But when the dollar starts getting stronger, there's less of a reason to buy Bitcoin.

尤其是有四檔 ETF 的拋售正在加劇崩潰。

Especially with four ETF sales are Amplifying the crash.

當你去購買 ETF 時，該 ETF 必須去購買底層的 bitcoin 作為儲備。

When you go and buy an etf, that ETF must go and buy the underlying Bitcoin to hold as a reserve.

Now, even though this works in favor of Bitcoin, when the price is going up and the ETF is buying everything available, it also works in where people sell the etf.

現在，雖然這對 bitcoin 有利，當價格上漲，ETF 買入所有可用的東西時，這也同樣適用於人們賣出 ETF 的情況。

The ETF then has to sell the underlying Bitcoin, causing the price to fall, causing people to sell even more of the etf, causing the price to fall even further, creating a death spiral on top of that.

ETF 然後就必須賣出底層的 bitcoin，導致價格下跌，導致人們賣出更多的 ETF，導致價格進一步下跌，形成惡性循環。

舉例來說，一年前還有一個戰略性 bitcoin 儲備的承諾。

For instance, a year ago there was the promise of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

大家認為我們將會繼續無止盡地印鈔票。

It was assumed that we would just continue printing endless money.

黃金還沒搶走鎂光燈，而 bitcoin 被定位為一種主導性資產，最終將會漲到 25 萬、50 萬甚至 100 萬美元。

Gold had yet to steal the spotlight and and Bitcoin was positioned to be a dominating asset that would eventually increase to 250, 500,000 and even a million dollars.

但現在已經沒有什麼好消息可以期待了。

But now there's no more good news to look forward to.

Most of the highlights have somewhat neutralized.

Recent cryptocurrency legislation appears to have stalled.

最近的加密貨幣法規似乎停滯不前。

And there's the assumption that if we see another blue wave throughout Congress, they could move to further regulate Bitcoin in a way that suppresses its price, leading to fifth, a loss of conviction.

而且有一種假設認為，如果國會再次出現「藍潮」，他們可能會進一步監管 bitcoin，進而壓制其價格，導致第五點：失去信心。

A lot of investors no longer believe that Bitcoin is a hedge against macro or geopolitical risks for the fact that gold rose 50% in 2025 while Bitcoin fell 7%.

許多投資者不再相信 bitcoin 是對抗宏觀或地緣政治風險的避險工具，因為黃金在 2025 年上漲了 50%，而 bitcoin 卻下跌了 7%。

Instead, Bitcoin became a leveraged risk asset that was more so associated with speculative stocks.

相反地，bitcoin 成了一種槓桿化的投機性資產，與投機性股票的關聯性更高。

Even Deutsche bank said that the recent sell off is more likely about negative retail interest than any one off event.

連德國銀行都說，最近的拋售更有可能是負面的散戶興趣所致，而非單一事件。

Or put more simply, people are losing faith that Bitcoin is correlated to anything causing them to sell off, which causes the price to turn fall even further, causing people to lose more interest, causing them to sell off.

或者更簡單地說，人們對 bitcoin 是否與任何事物相關聯失去了信心，這導致他們拋售，進而導致價格進一步下跌，人們失去更多興趣，導致他們拋售。

Now, before we talk about whether or not this could soon be a generational buying opportunity that retires your entire bloodline or the biggest mistake you're ever going to make, we got to talk about Bitcoin risks.

現在，在我們討論這是否可能很快成為一項能讓你全家退休的世代買入機會，或是你將犯下的最大錯誤之前，我們得先談談 bitcoin 的風險。

To break this down, let's start with one of the most respected investors of all time, Warren Buffett.

為了深入探討，讓我們從有史以來最受尊敬的投資者之一華倫·巴菲特開始。

He's famously said that you can't value Bitcoin because it's not a value producing asset.

他曾有名言說，你無法為 bitcoin 定價，因為它不是一個能產生價值的資產。

If you buy something like Bitcoin or some cryptocurrency, you don't really have anything that's produced anything.

如果你買了 bitcoin 或某些加密貨幣，你並沒有真正擁有任何能產生任何東西的東西。

You're just hoping the next guy pays more in essence, this is why he's repeatedly referred to it as a gambling token.

簡單來說，就是你希望下一個人出更高的價錢，這也是為什麼他一再稱 bitcoin 為賭博代幣。

To the point where he wouldn't pay $25 for all the bitcoin in the world.

甚至到了他說，就算全世界的 bitcoin 擺在他面前，他也不會出 25 美元去買。

Now, to clarify on this point even further, he explained that assets to have value, have to deliver something to somebody and there's only one currency that's accepted.

現在，為了更清楚地說明這一點，他解釋說，資產要有價值，就必須能為某人提供某種東西，而且只有一種貨幣是被普遍接受的。

You can come up with all kinds of things.

But in the end, there's no reason in the world why the United States government is going to let Berkshire money replace theirs.

但最終，世界上沒有任何理由讓美國政府允許 Berkshire 的貨幣取代他們自己的貨幣。

Now, even though this seems like a fairly rational explanation, on the surf surface, his late partner Charlie Munger had much more vulgar things to say.

現在，雖然這聽起來是一個相當理性的解釋，但表面上看，他已故的合夥人查理·蒙格說過更難聽的話。

Like in the past, he's called bitcoin rat poison that will go to zero, that it's crazy stupid gambling.

像是過去他曾稱 bitcoin 為會歸零的老鼠藥，說這是瘋狂愚蠢的賭博。

Anyone who disagrees is an idiot and compares it to, and

任何不同意的人都是白痴，他將其比喻為，

I quote, somebody else is trading turds and you decide I can't be left out.

我引用，別人正在交易糞便，而你決定不能錯過。

But even though some people have been vehemently against it, others have slowly switched their tune.

但即使有些人一直強烈反對，其他人也慢慢改變了他們的說法。

For example, Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan previously said that bitcoin was worthless and a tool for criminals.

例如，摩根大通的 Jamie Dimon 以前曾說 bitcoin 一文不值，是罪犯的工具。

Although now his firm says that it has better long term appeal.

雖然現在他的公司表示，它有更好的長期吸引力。

或者以億萬富翁 Ray Dalio 為例。

He previously called bitcoin a bubble, but now refers to it as one hell of an invention.

他以前稱 bitcoin 為保麗龍，但現在稱它為一項了不起的發明。

甚至以貝萊德的 Larry Fink 為例。

Years ago he said that bitcoin was an index of money laundering.

多年前他說 bitcoin 是洗錢的指標。

But now he admits it's a legitimate financial instrument with potential to outperform the Internet.

但現在他承認這是一種合法的金融工具，有潛力超越網際網路。

That's why I've recently had several analysts come out with some pretty staggering price predictions over the next few decades.

這就是為什麼我最近有幾位分析師對未來幾十年發布了一些相當驚人的價格預測。

Like Cathie Wood double down on her bitcoin position.

就像 Cathie Wood 加碼她的 bitcoin 倉位。

Michael Saylor still believes It'll eventually hit $10 million.

Michael Saylor 仍然相信它最終會達到 1000 萬美元。

And Robert Kiyosaki has cash in hand to buy more.

而 Robert Kiyosaki 手上有現金可以買更多。

However, I'm not going to lie, this could also be the beginning of a much broader and much worse sell off that lasts a lot longer than people expect.

不過，我必須說實話，這也可能是更廣泛、更糟糕的拋售的開始，而且持續的時間比人們預期的要長得多。

Like Stifle, analysts are expecting it to fall to 38,000.

就像 Stifle 一樣，分析師預計它會跌到 38,000。

Previous crashes have been as high as 75 to a 90% loss.

過去的崩盤損失高達 75% 到 90%。

And there's now the narrative that we'll see $50,000 right around the corner.

現在有一種說法是，我們很快就會看到 50,000 美元。

So in terms of my own plan, what you could do about this and what history suggests is most likely going to happen next, here's what you came for.

所以就我個人的計畫而言，你可以怎麼做，以及歷史顯示接下來最可能發生的事情，這就是你想要的。

Because this might wind up saving you a lot of money.

因為這可能會為你省下很多錢。

Although before we go into that, I just got to say the biggest risk right now isn't what you invest in, it's.

不過，在我們深入探討之前，我必須說，現在最大的風險不在於你投資什麼，而在於。

If you're anything like me and you've been getting a ton of spam phone calls, emails, phishing attempts and texts, here's the truth.

如果你跟我一樣，接到超多詐騙電話、電子郵件、釣魚訊息和簡訊，那真相是這樣的。

While everyone is focused on what's happening in the markets, your personal information is quietly getting sold and reused behind the scenes, which ends up costing you time and money without you even noticing.

當大家都在關注市場動態時，你的個人資訊卻在幕後被悄悄賣掉和重複利用，不知不覺中讓你損失時間和金錢。

That's why being diligent is much more than just saving money.

所以，謹慎小心不只是省錢而已。

It's about protecting what you already have.

更是要保護你已經擁有的東西。

For those unaware, Incogni works by reaching out to data brokers on your behalf, requesting that your personal data be removed, and

簡單來說，Incogni 會代表你聯繫資料經紀商，要求刪除你的個人資料，並且

字幕列表影片播放

「我什麼都沒了」——比特幣到底怎麼了？！ ("I Just Lost Everything" - WTF Happened To Bitcoin?!)

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