Name: Ray Dalio 準備迎戰 1929 年式的金融海嘯！ (Ray Dalio is Preparing For A Crash Like 1929)
Uploaded: 2026-01-06T08:13:26.000Z
Duration: 14 min 59 s

Ray Dalio is preparing for a 1929 style crisis.

雷·達裡歐正在為1929年式危機做準備。

The only difference is that this time it is going to get a lot worse.

唯一不同的是，這次情況會變得糟很多。

程度副詞

There are so many similarities between today and 1920s that it's absolutely shocking.

現在和1920年代有太多相似之處，真的讓人非常震驚。

The world in 1929 was completely different from the world in 1939.

1929年的世界和1939年的世界完全不同。

And since we are living very similar days today, in a few years from now, the world is going to be a completely different place.

而因為我們現在過著非常相似的日子，幾年後，世界將會變得完全不一樣。

So listen very carefully because this is also going to present a very huge opportunity, a once in a lifetime opportunity that could make you ultra rich.

所以請仔細聽，因為這也會帶來一個巨大的機會，一個千載難逢的機會，可以讓你變得超級富有。

Historically, before 1930s, Great Britain was the only superpower that stabilized the world economy.

歷史上，在1930年代之前，英國是唯一穩定世界經濟的超級大國。

Usually there has been one country that had so much economic impact on the rest of the world that it would lead the world.

通常都會有一個國家對世界其他地方有巨大的經濟影響力，進而領導世界。

having one country that has so much influence over the world was always great because there was somebody that was leading the world.

有一個國家對世界有這麼大的影響力，總是好的，因為有個人在領導著世界。

But the problem is that back in 1931, Britain got so weak that it had to abandon the gold standard.

但問題是，在1931年，英國變得非常虛弱，不得不放棄金本位。

And the world was left without a superpower, without a country that could take the leadership.

世界就這樣失去了一個超級大國，一個能領導世界的國家。

Yes, the United States was already the largest economy, but it wasn't strong enough to take the leadership.

是的，美國已經是最大的經濟體了，但它還不夠強大來領導世界。

Today we are seeing very similar situations.

今天我們也看到非常類似的情況。

The United States can barely sustain its debts and mathematically the United States will never pay off its debts.

美國幾乎無法償還債務，而且從數學上看，美國永遠無法還清債務。

And a lot of people wondering why the rest of the world are not moving away from the US Debt.

很多人都在納悶，為什麼世界其他國家不擺脫美國債務。

Why is the US Treasuries or the US Bond market remains to be the largest market in the world?

為什麼美國國庫券或美國債券市場仍然是世界上最大的市場？

The answer is very simple and straightforward.

Yes, China might have built the world's second largest economy, but

是的，中國可能已經建立了世界第二大經濟體，但

it's not yet in a position where it can take leadership from the United States.

它還沒有到可以取代美國領導地位的階段。

And that's why the world was divided back in the days between the status quo, the countries that literally created the world order back in the days and that was the United Kingdom, France and the United States.

這也是為什麼過去世界會分裂成兩派，一派是維持現狀的國家，也就是當年創造世界秩序的英國、法國和美國。

On the other side, there were few countries that did not like the status quo and they wanted to change the world order, which were Germany, Japan and Italy.

另一邊，則有一些國家不喜歡現狀，想要改變世界秩序，那就是德國、日本和義大利。

這也導致了第二次世界大戰的爆發。

今天，我們看到一個非常類似的局面。

We have the G7 countries that are led by the United States.

And G7 countries created the modern world order that primarily benefits the United States and the US Allies.

G7 國家創造了現代世界秩序，主要讓美國和美國的盟友受益。

But on the other side we have brics, countries that are like, we don't like this world order.

但在另一邊，我們有金磚國家，他們說，我們不喜歡這個世界秩序。

We would like to change the rules of the game that would also favor us or at least gives us equal opportunities.

我們希望改變遊戲規則，讓對我們有利，或者至少給我們公平的機會。

And that's why they are building an alternative global financial system, for example.

這也是為什麼他們正在建立一個替代性的全球金融體系。

The exact same story is repeating today, just like it was back in 1920s.

現在正在重演同樣的故事，就像 1920 年代一樣。

And each side was trying to win, especially the countries that wanted the status quo to continue.

而每一方都在試圖獲勝，尤其是那些希望維持現狀的國家。

That's why they started weaponizing trade by imposing tariffs on other nations.

這就是為什麼他們開始武器化貿易，對其他國家徵收關稅。

You supposed to do business with countries and organizations that are beneficial to you.

你應該與對你有益的國家和組織做生意。

But then when you realize that your security is at risk, suddenly you start imposing tariffs and, and

但當你意識到你的安全受到威脅時，你突然開始徵收關稅，然後

The United States is doing the exact same thing today.

The US right now is imposing very similar tariffs than it did back in 1930s in order to protect itself, bring American companies back to the United States to manufacture and punish American adversaries.

美國現在徵收的關稅與 1930 年代非常相似，目的是保護自己，讓美國公司回美國設廠，並懲罰美國的敵人。

Before 1930s, the world was very connected.

在 1930 年代之前，世界是非常緊密相連的。

But by 1920s, or I would say late 1920s and early 1930s, protectionism started to rise.

但到了1920年代，或者我會說1920年代末期和1930年代初期，保護主義開始抬頭。

And each country suddenly began imposing very heavy tariffs and stopped trading with other countries and were pursuing self sufficiency.

每個國家突然開始徵收重稅，停止與其他國家貿易，並追求自給自足。

And we see that dynamic happening today as well.

But most importantly, there was a disruptive technology that was reshaping the entire world.

但最重要的是，有一項顛覆性技術正在重塑整個世界。

Today we have AI and according to what we see, AI is going to fundamentally just change everything.

今天我們有AI，根據我們所見，AI將從根本上改變一切。

The way we live, the way we consume, the way we drive.

我們生活的方式、我們消費的方式、我們開車的方式。

And whoever dominated, dominates AI well, is going to dominate the 21st century.

而無論誰主導了AI，誰就能主導21世紀。

Back in 1920s, electricity was widely spreading all across the United States.

回到1920年代，電力正在美國各地廣泛傳播。

Without electricity, you cannot light up your house, you cannot drive your car, you cannot do anything.

沒有電力，你無法點亮你的房子，無法開車，什麼都做不了。

Probably even the Internet is absolutely useless.

So just like electricity was widely spreading across the globe in 1920s, AI today is widely spreading and changing every single industry.

所以就像1920年代電力廣泛傳播一樣，現今的AI也廣泛傳播並改變了每一個產業。

And these changes that we see has been happening in 1920s led to a change in the global monetary system.

而我們看到的這些改變，在1920年代就已經發生，並導致了全球貨幣體系的改變。

And that changed to the global world order.

Back in 1920s, the world was on a gold standard.

回到1920年代，當時全世界都採用金本位。

So every single currency was backed by gold.

所以每一種貨幣都由黃金支撐。

But the world did not like that because there are so many problems with gold from one side.

但全世界並不喜歡這樣，因為黃金從一方面來說有很多問題。

It seems like the perfect currency to use.

A lot of people, especially on the Internet, they like to make the argument that we have to go back to the gold standard.

很多人，尤其是在網路上，他們喜歡爭論說我們必須回到金本位。

But there is so much limited gold in the world that it restrains the economy.

但世界上黃金的儲量非常有限，這會限制經濟發展。

You cannot possibly grow the economy when you have so much limited control of gold and you do not have a control over your currency.

你不可能在黃金的控制非常有限，而且你無法控制你的貨幣的情況下，讓經濟成長。

And that's why, starting for example, in 1920s, the world is like, we have to move away from the gold standard into fiat currencies.

這就是為什麼，舉例來說，從1920年代開始，全世界就覺得我們必須從金本位轉向法定貨幣。

So one country after another, they started abandoning the gold standard.

所以一個國家接著一個國家，他們開始放棄金本位。

It was A completely new financial system.

Instantly it created hyperinflations in many nations.

這立即在許多國家造成了惡性通貨膨脹。

German hyperinflation, which is well known across the globe.

德國的惡性通貨膨脹，這在全世界都很有名。

Austria, Hungary, Greece, China, all these countries instantly started to experience hyperinflation.

奧地利、匈牙利、希臘、中國，所有這些國家都立即開始經歷惡性通貨膨脹。

That's when prices rise by at least 50% annually.

In the case of Germany, by the end of the hyperinflation, people were carrying notes worth trillions of dollars.

以德國為例，到了惡性通貨膨脹的末期，人們攜帶著價值數兆美元的鈔票。

Like hundreds of trillions of dollars in your pocket, which can barely buy you a loaf of bread.

就像你口袋裡有數百兆美元，卻幾乎買不了一條麵包。

而今天我們看到一個非常類似的狀況。

Especially after the 2008 financial crisis.

The world is like, we want to move away from the US dollar just like the world was moving away from gold in 1920s.

全世界就像是，我們想要擺脫美元，就像1920年代全世界想要擺脫金本位一樣。

The world after the 2008 financial crisis realized how dependent the global economy is on the dollar and it started to move away.

2008年金融海嘯後，全世界意識到全球經濟有多依賴美元，並開始尋求擺脫。

So this was the period when the world was trying to create systems or alternative systems to break away from that monopoly.

所以這是那個時期，全世界都在試圖建立系統或替代系統，來打破那種壟斷。

China created a system where you can transfer money from one place to into another, bypassing the US financial system.

中國建立了一個系統，可以將資金從一個地方轉移到另一個地方，繞過美國的金融體系。

So going back to 1920s, after a series of hyperinflation in 1920s, in 1931, the major blow comes up.

所以回到1920年代，在經歷了一系列1920年代的惡性通貨膨脹後，到了1931年，重大的打擊出現了。

The United Kingdom, which was the most dominant economy, says that even the UK is going to abandon the gold standard.

當時最主要的經濟體英國宣佈，就連英國也要放棄金本位了。

Nobody could have even imagined that the UK is in such a huge financial trouble.

當時沒人能想像英國竟然會陷入如此巨大的財政困境。

This is the empire that controls Canada, used to control the United States.

這個國家曾經掌控加拿大，也曾經掌控美國。

It has under its pockets Australia, India and so many other nations.

它的旗下還有澳洲、印度以及許多其他國家。

So this empire has enough gold, enough wealth to pay for anything.

所以這個帝國擁有足夠的黃金、足夠的財富來支付任何費用。

But then in 1944 comes the biggest blow of all time.

但到了1944年，出現了史上最大的打擊。

The UK for the first time ever stops making debt payments and has accumulated so much debt and there is an interest to pay on that debt.

英國有史以來第一次停止償還債務，累積了巨額債務，而這些債務還需要支付利息。

And when you do not have enough money to pay the interest on that debt, that is called a default.

當你沒有足夠的錢來支付債務利息時，這就叫做違約。

The UK was even kicked out out of the US financial market because it was no longer making it is debt payments.

英國甚至被踢出美國金融市場，因為它不再償還債務。

現在我們正看到非常類似的情況。

The United States admits that the US debt is unsustainable.

美國承認美國債務是不可持續的。

And based on this trajectory, the United States is, is going to get out of business.

根據這個軌跡，美國將會倒閉。

We know that the United States is not going to pay off its debts, but

我們知道美國不會償還債務，但是

at least as long as the United States keeps making the interest payments, that is fine.

只要美國持續支付利息，那就沒問題。

But based on all the data that we have, the United States cannot possibly continue doing that.

但根據我們所有的數據，美國不可能繼續這樣下去。

Like in 10 years from now, based on this trajectory, the total interest payments on the US debt will be about $4 trillion.

像是從現在起算10年後，照這個趨勢，美國債務的總利息支付將高達約4兆美元。

Just for the context that the total US budget today is about $5 trillion.

只是給大家一個概念，美國今天的總預算大約是5兆美元。

Let's assume that the budget is going to.

Let's assume that the tax revenues will rise to $7 trillion.

Can you imagine a functioning country where 50 to 70% of your entire money that comes from taxpayers is paid towards interest payments?

你能想像一個國家，有50%到70%的稅收收入是用來支付利息嗎？

Today it's about 20%, which is already insane.

現在大約是20%，這已經很誇張了。