Name: 馬斯克最新預言：AI即將全面超越人類？｜火星計畫：人類為何需要多行星化｜英聽訓練 (Elon Musk最新預言：AI 即將全面超越人類？｜火星計劃：人類為何需要多行星化｜英聽訓練)
Uploaded: 2026-01-04T06:15:02.000Z
Duration: 15 min 33 s

Yeah, could you give us an update on that?

沒錯，可以跟我們更新一下那邊的進度嗎？

And then also as part of that, where are we in the scaling laws?

那另外，在這部分裡面，我們在規模法則這塊目前到哪裡了？

If you scale a bigger cluster, do you get a more powerful AI model?

如果我們擴大一個更大的叢集，我們會得到一個更強大的 AI 模型嗎？

If you throw twice as much compute at it, do you get a 10% better model?

如果我們投入兩倍的計算量，模型會提升 10% 嗎？

How much more juice is there left in scaling hardware, do you think?

各位覺得硬體的規模法則還有多少成長空間？

I think there's a natural logarithmic function associated with the amount of compute.

我覺得計算量跟一個自然對數函數有關。

So then, like, say for argument's sake, like, 10x more compute will double the intelligence.

所以，像是，假設說，十倍的計算量會讓智慧翻倍。

That might be a rough rule of thumb, but, you know, that still means that, you know, you go from 100 IQ to 200 IQ still pretty, pretty big deal.

這可能是一個粗略的經驗法則，但你知道，這還是意味著，你知道，你從一百的智商變成兩百的智商，這還是個很、很大的進步。

I think, I think we'll see intelligence continue to scale all the way up to where, you know, most of the power of the sun is harnessed for compute and then ultimately most of the power of the galaxy, you know, sort of Kardashev 2K3 scale compute.

我認為，我認為我們會看到智慧持續擴大，直到我們利用太陽的大部分能量來進行計算，然後最終是利用整個銀河系的大部分能量，你知道，類似 Kardashev 2K3 等級的計算。

So I guess once you think about artificial intelligence, not as sort of this, you know, a destination that you reach, but

所以我猜，一旦你把人工智慧想成，不是一個你到達的目的地，而是

really as part of the overall escalation of intelligence that we are aware of, you know, human intelligence has also scaled as you've.

而是我們所知道的整體智慧升級的一部分，你知道，人類的智慧也隨著你。

As the population has increased and we've been able to store more and more information, human intelligence at scale now, human.

隨著人口增加，我們能儲存的資訊越來越多，現在大規模的人類智慧，人類。

Because of population declines and low growth rate, human intelligence is somewhat plateauing and will actually decline.

由於人口減少和低成長率，人類智慧有點停滯不前，實際上會下降。

And my guess is that I think that we might have AI smarter than any single human at anything as soon as next year.

我猜，我認為最快明年我們就可能會有比任何單一人類在任何事上都聰明的人工智慧。

And then probably within five, like, say 20, 30, probably AI is smarter than the sum of all humans.

然後大概在五年內，像是 20、30 年內，人工智慧可能就會比所有人類加起來還聰明。

Do you think humans are on the decline because the AI is evolving?

你覺得人類正在衰退，因為人工智慧正在進化嗎？

Do you think there's this evolution of the ecosystem on Earth that's underway, that we don't really understand the structure of what's going on?

你認為地球上的生態系統正在演進，而我們並不真正瞭解正在發生的事情的結構嗎？

Maybe, yeah, maybe we implicitly know that it's coming.

也許吧，嗯，也許我們心裡早就知道它會來。

Yeah, I mean, I hope the birth rates turn around.

對啊，我是說，我希望生育率能回升。

I'm a big proponent of increased birth rate, obviously.

我很支持提高生育率，這很明顯。

Well, you're doing anything about it or no?

嗯，你對這件事有什麼行動嗎？

對啊，我正努力樹立一個好榜樣。

You know, we had a big conversation at this conference we didn't expect, which is suicidal empathy.

我們在一個會議上有一場意外的重大討論，那就是自殺式同理心。

西方，這個生育率下降的問題。

I noticed you've been pretty active about it.

我注意到你對這件事相當積極。

And open borders is like, let the invaders in.

而開放邊境就像是，讓入侵者進來。

Could all three of those be the same thing.

It seems like there's a number of symptoms of the west being suicidal, the most obvious one being the birth rate is not a replacement level.

看起來西方好像有很多自殺的跡象，最明顯的就是生育率低於世代更替的水準。

So obviously, if that continues indefinitely, then the west will literally not reproduce enough to replace itself.

所以很明顯，如果這種情況無限期持續下去，西方就真的無法產生足夠的下一代來取代自己。

There's the fact that the borders were totally opened to the point where Western culture, the social fabric, started to come apart.

還有一個原因是邊境完全開放，導致西方文化、社會結構開始瓦解。

And you see this especially in Europe, where they're, you know, the indigenous cultures of the UK or France or Germany are starting to potentially be taken over by cultures of people who are brought in and aren't assimilating.

這在歐洲尤其明顯，像是英國、法國或德國的在地文化，可能正被引進來但卻不融入的新文化所取代。

You have crime where, you know, we have this case on social media right now, this young woman, Irina, who's just killed in a senseless way on a subway, which is horrific enough in and of itself, but

犯罪問題也層出不窮，你知道，我們現在社群媒體上就有個案例，一位年輕女子 Irina，在捷運上被無意義地殺害，這本身已經夠可怕了，但是

then in addition to that, the elite media just, for whatever reason, just refused to cover it, like it didn't exist.

更糟的是，精英媒體卻因為某些原因，完全不報導這件事，好像它不存在一樣。

So you have this issue of crime that's not being addressed or even acknowledged, and

所以你看，犯罪問題沒有被解決，甚至沒有被承認，

Like, it's almost like we're trying to deny the reality of the spiral and this.

感覺就像我們在試圖否認這個螺旋和這個的現實。

You have all these data points that seem to suggest that the west is suicidal or doesn't, you know, doesn't seem to want to defend itself or propagate itself.

你看到所有這些數據點，似乎都暗示著西方國家是自殺性的，或者，你知道，似乎不想捍衛自己或延續自己。

Look, I think everyone in this room thinks that life is awesome.

看，我覺得在場的每個人都覺得生活很棒。

It's pretty great and, I think, worth living.

真的很棒，而且，我認為，值得活下去。

And when Alex Karp was here earlier today defending the west, that got some of the loudest applause at the conference.

還有，今天早些時候 Alex Karp 在這裡為西方辯護時，在會議上獲得了最熱烈的掌聲。

So I guess we probably don't really understand what's going on.

所以我想我們可能真的不太瞭解發生了什麼事。

Because, you know, what's your take on the suicide of the West?

因為，你知道，你怎麼看西方文明的自殺？

Let's just say that the actions of the west are indistinguishable from suicide.

我們就說西方國家的行為無異於自殺。

Look, at least in America, there's generally a sense of optimism.

看，至少在美國，普遍有一種樂觀的感覺。

But when's the last time you talked to someone from Europe who lives in Europe who's optimistic?

但你上次跟住在歐洲的歐洲人哈拉，他感到樂觀是什麼時候？

So I think unless people have a sense of optimism and purpose about the future, they.

所以我認為，除非人們對未來抱持樂觀和目標感，否則他們。

Like having a child is an act of optimism about the future.

像是生孩子就是一種對未來的樂觀。

So I think we need to maybe give people A sense of optimism and excitement about the future and a belief that the future will be better than the past and they'll be more interested in having kids.

所以我認為我們可能需要給人們一種對未來的樂觀和興奮感，以及相信未來會比過去更好，這樣他們才會更有興趣生小孩。

Did religion play a role in the past, Elon, to kind of placate and make folks feel that way when they.

過去宗教是否扮演了某種角色，Elon，來安撫人們並讓他們感覺良好，當他們。

And if you take away religion, then I think you actually, you get something in its place which is actually worse than what was there before.

如果你拿走了宗教，我認為你實際上會得到一些東西來填補它的位置，而那東西其實比以前的東西還要糟。

我的意思是，基本上就是破壞性的。

You get like the white work mind virus filling the hole that religion used to have.

你會得到像「白人工作心智病毒」之類的，填補了宗教曾經擁有的空缺。

Taking the place of religion, you get these dystopian de facto religions that are very self destructive.

取代宗教，你得到這些反烏託邦的、事實上的宗教，它們非常具有自我毀滅性。

So I think perhaps some sort of revival of religion or at least what we need is some coherent philosophy that people can get excited about.

所以我覺得，或許需要某種宗教的復興，或者至少是我們需要一個大家都能熱情投入的連貫哲學。

I mean, for me it's a philosophy of curiosity.

對我來說，這是一種好奇心的哲學。

I'm curious about the nature of the universe and I want to go out there and I want humanity to be out there exploring the stars, maybe meeting alien civilizations.

我對宇宙的本質感到好奇，我想走出去，我希望人類能出去探索星際，也許會遇到外星文明。

Maybe in some cases we see the ruins of a long dead alien civilization.

也許在某些情況下，我們會看到一個早已滅絕的外星文明的遺跡。

But they were, they were very strong for 10 million years.

但是，牠們曾經強盛了 1000 萬年。

You know, the kind of stuff that you see in Star Trek, in the, in a non dystopian sci fi book or movie or show.

你知道，就像你在《星際爭霸戰》裡看到的，在一個非反烏託邦的科幻小說、電影或影集裡。

And so I'm just, I have a philosophy of curiosity of like I just want to know what's going on.

所以，我就是，我有一種好奇心的哲學，就是我想知道到底發生了什麼事。

And in order to know what's going on, we must have and increase in the scope and scale of consciousness.

而為了知道發生了什麼事，我們必須擁有並擴大意識的範圍和規模。

我們必須作為一個意識來擴展。

We must grow humanity and we must extend humanity in order to comprehend, to understand the universe or even what questions we should ask about the answer that is the universe.

我們必須讓人類成長，我們必須延伸人類，才能理解、明白宇宙，甚至明白我們應該問關於宇宙答案的哪些問題。

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馬斯克最新預言：AI即將全面超越人類？｜火星計畫：人類為何需要多行星化｜英聽訓練 (Elon Musk最新預言：AI 即將全面超越人類？｜火星計劃：人類為何需要多行星化｜英聽訓練)

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