Name: 哈瑞·安頓：川普在獨立選民中支持度慘跌！ (Harry Enten: Donald Trump is far underwater with independent voters)
Uploaded: 2025-12-29T17:06:45.000Z
Duration: 10 min 10 s

程度副詞

With 2025 almost in the books, it's time to take stock of the very tumultuous first year of President Trump's second term and what it means for 2026 and beyond.

2025 年即將結束，是時候來檢視川普總統第二任期動盪不安的第一年，以及這對 2026 年及未來意味著什麼。

TRUMP has transformed the country in countless, often unprecedented ways by barreling through boundaries and at times ignoring the limits of the law, slashing the federal government, issuing sweeping tariffs and sparking a global trade war, cracking down on immigration and targeting political enemies, and

川普以無數、常是前所未有的方式改變了國家，他衝破邊界、有時無視法律限制，削減聯邦政府、祭出廣泛的關稅並引發全球貿易戰，嚴厲打擊移民並針對政敵，

But first, how are voters feeling about his presidency so far?

但首先，選民們對他的總統任期到目前為止有什麼感覺？

Let's begin with CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten to walk us through what the polls say and how they've changed.

我們先請 CNN 的首席數據分析師 Harry Enten 來帶我們看看民意調查的結果以及它們的變化。

Hey, Manu, look, 2025 was not exactly the best year for the president of the United States.

嘿，Manu，你看，2025 年對美國總統來說並不是最好的一年。

He started off in pretty gosh darn good territory, right?

他一開始的狀況 pretty gosh darn good，對吧？

In January, he was six points above water, pretty much above water where he was during his entire first term in office.

一月時，他領先六個百分點，差不多和他整個第一任期一樣領先。

12 points underwater, way, way down there.

落後十二個百分點，差很多，非常多。

That is an 18 point decline during the course of the year.

這表示在這一整年中，他的支持率下降了十八個百分點。

Now, what has driven Donald Trump's decline in his net approval rating?

那麼，是什麼導致了川普淨支持率的下降呢？

Well, it's independence that is the name of the game, baby.

嗯，就是獨立選民，這才是關鍵所在，寶貝！

Look, in January, Donald Trump's net approval rating among independents was about even, minus one point.

看，一月時，川普在獨立選民中的淨支持率差不多是持平的，負一點。

Not too hot to trot, but not too bad either.

Now, we're talking about 43 points underwater come December.

現在，到了十二月，他的淨支持率是落後四十三個百分點。

That is a decline of 42 points on his net approval rating.

這表示他的淨支持率下降了四十二個百分點。

Donald Trump is hanging out with Jacques Cousteau.

川普現在跟庫斯托（Jacques Cousteau）一起潛水了。

That is how far underwater Donald Trump is with independence at this point.

這就是川普在獨立選民中的支持率，現在有多麼地低迷。

Now, what issues are driving this decline in Trump's approval rating, his net approval rating?

現在，是什麼樣的問題在推動川普支持率、他的淨支持率下降呢？

Well, let's look at two of the key issues, right?

嗯，我們來看看其中兩個關鍵問題，對吧？

The economy, the reason that Donald Trump was elected to a second term.

經濟，也就是唐納·川普能夠連任的原因。

Back in January, he was in pretty good shape at plus nine points on the net approval rating.

一月的時候，他的淨支持率是領先九個百分點，狀況還不錯。

But look, come December, 16 points underwater, that is a decline, Doing the math quickly here, of 25 points for Donald Trump on the key issue of the day, the economy, the reason he got a second term.

但你看，到了十二月，落後十六個百分點，這就是一個下降，快速算一下，唐納·川普在當天關鍵問題、也就是他能連任的原因——經濟上，下降了二十五個百分點。

And then of course, immigration, which Donald Trump has really focused in on during his second term in office, something he has been focusing on since he first ran for the presidency all the way back in 2015 was, well, in January, he was nine points above water on the issue.

然後當然還有移民，這是唐納·川普在第二任期內真正關注的，也是他從 2015 年第一次競選總統以來就一直關注的，嗯，一月的時候，他在這個問題上是領先九個百分點。

Now he's six points below water on the issue.

現在，他在這個問題上落後六個百分點。

So on the key issues of the economy, inflation going in the wrong direction for Donald Trump.

所以，在經濟這個關鍵問題上，通膨對唐納·川普來說是朝錯誤的方向發展。

Now, there is a bit of good news, or at least Some solace that Donald Trump can take when you compare him to other 21st century presidents at this point in their second term.

現在，有些好消息，或者至少唐納·川普可以找到一些慰藉，當你把他跟其他 21 世紀總統在他們第二任期這個時間點來比較時。

Trump is 12 points underwater, but Barack Obama, right nearby, 11 points underwater.

川普落後十二個百分點，但巴拉克·歐巴馬也差不多，落後十一點。

George W. Bush also right, right nearby at 10 points underwater.

喬治·W·布希也差不多，落後十個百分點。

But here's the key nugget to keep in mind.

Their parties, Barack Obama's and George W.

他們的政黨，巴拉克·歐巴馬和喬治·W·布希的，在第二任期的期中選舉都遭受了重大損失。

Bush's, both suffered major losses come the midterm elections in their second term.

Term two, negative net approval ratings at this point.

Did they go positive by the midterm elections?

第二任期，淨支持率在這個時間點是負的。

In Barack Obama's case, no, it didn't happen.

到了期中選舉，他們的淨支持率有轉正嗎？

His party lost control of the Senate, suffered major losses in the US House of Representatives.

就巴拉克·歐巴馬來說，沒有，並沒有發生。

George W. Bush didn't go positive either.

他的政黨失去了參議院的控制權，並且在美國眾議院遭受了重大損失。

By the midterm elections, his party lost control of the House and the Senate.

And then, of course, all the way back in 1973, going into 74, Richard Nixon's net approval rating was negative.

到了期中選舉，他的政黨失去了眾議院和參議院的控制權。

He was actually forced from office before those midterm elections.

然後，當然，在1973年進入1974年時，理查·尼克森的淨支持率是負的。

And then his party suffered major losses in Congress.

他其實在期中選舉之前就因為壓力而辭職了。

We'll have to wait and see if the same thing happens to Donald Trump.

然後他的政黨在國會遭受了重大損失。

He gets a question mark at this point, but

based upon history, it doesn't look too good for the man in charge of the White House right now.

從歷史來看，現在白宮裡那位的情況不太妙。

And I've got a terrific panel joining me right now, seen as Jeff Zeleny, NPR's Tamara Keith, and

我這裡有一組很棒的專家，有 NPR 的 Jeff Zeleny、Tamara Keith，還有

A lot to look forward to in the year ahead.

Let's take stock of what just happened and where things are going.

我們來看看剛才發生的事，以及未來的走向。

Neil, Harry's those numbers are, were pretty stark.

Neil，Harry，那些數字確實非常驚人。

The independent number I was really struck by.

獨立選民這數字真的讓我印象深刻。

I mean, Trump was down with Independence by 1 point in January.

我是說，川普在一月時在獨立選民這塊還落後 1 個百分點。

Now he's down by 43 points underwater, a 42 point slide.

現在他落後 43 個百分點，下滑了 42 個百分點。

I mean, you can hear it sort of week by week.

我是說，你每週都可以聽到一些風聲。

Recently, President Trump is increasingly asking in midterm elections, why do presidents, their party lose seats?

最近，川普總統越來越常問起期中選舉，為什麼總統的政黨會輸掉席次？

He's just been bringing it up randomly in Oval Office meetings.

他在橢圓形辦公室的會議上，動不動就提起這件事。

Of course, he has seen this movie before.

當然，他以前看過這部電影了。

In 2018, the first midterm of his first term, he had big losses.

在 2018 年，他第一個任期的期中選舉，他大敗。

It's why the White House has been so obsessed with redistricting.

這就是為什麼白宮如此熱衷於重新劃分選區。

It's why they've been so obsessed with trying to change the game.

這就是為什麼他們如此熱衷於試圖改變遊戲規則。

And as we end the year here and look forward to the new year, the redistricting is about a wash.

隨著我們結束今年並展望新的一年，重新劃分選區大致上是持平的。

I mean, there are still a couple unanswered questions.

我是說，還是有幾個懸而未決的問題。

Florida, for example, which is going to help Republicans a touch.

例如佛羅裡達州，這將稍微幫助共和黨。

Virginia is going to help Democrats a touch.

維吉尼亞州將稍微幫助民主黨。

But by and large, redistricting alone is not going to save the president.

不過總的來說，重新劃分選區本身並不能拯救總統。

So I think when we take stock of what we know now about Trump, he's been a very activist president in terms of flexing the executive authority of his office.

所以我想，當我們回顧現在對川普的瞭解時，他是一位非常積極的總統，經常運用他的職權。

But we also learn how he spends his time.

但我們也瞭解他如何運用他的時間。

I think that is one of the reasons that the numbers are so low, because he promised to fight for you.

我認為這就是數字如此低的原因之一，因為他承諾會為你們奮鬥。

He's actually doing a lot of stuff for himself.

他實際上是在為自己做很多事。

He like plaques the Trump Kennedy Center, a lot of things.

他喜歡川普肯尼迪中心的獎牌，還有很多東西。

So that is what frustrates some White House advisors.

所以這就是讓一些白宮顧問感到沮喪的地方。

He's actually just doing stuff for Donald Trump.

他實際上只是在為唐納·川普做事。

And I think that hits at some of these independent numbers.

我認為這影響到了一些獨立的數據。

And we're going to be talking about those Trump Awards later in the show and what it all means.

節目稍後我們會討論那些川普獎牌，以及它們代表的意義。

不過，Tamara，妳是白宮的記者。

When Trump looks at those numbers, is he denying those exist or does he privately acknowledging we got to change course here at least a little bit?

當川普看到那些數字時，他是在否認它們的存在，還是私下承認我們至少得稍微改變一下方向？

嗯，看看他的行為就知道了，對吧？

他今年大部分時間都沒有舉辦造勢大會。

現在，那些造勢大會是否切題？

he's giving the audience what they want, which is the weave and all of the things and all of the, all of his complaints and all of his retribution and all of that.

他正在給觀眾他們想要的，也就是那些絮絮叨叨、所有事情、他所有的抱怨和所有的報復等等。

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哈瑞·安頓：川普在獨立選民中支持度慘跌！ (Harry Enten: Donald Trump is far underwater with independent voters)

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