Name: 川普竟然做了「這件」讓人無法置信的事… 情況真的糟透了！ (Trump Just Did The UNTHINKABLE... It's REALLY Bad)
Uploaded: 2025-11-10T18:02:05.000Z
Duration: 15 min 43 s

程度副詞

The housing market is about to get really ugly.

房地產市場即將變得非常糟糕。

轉承詞

Buying a house for the vast majority of Americans have become an impossible dream because house prices have gone entirely out of control in recent years.

對於絕大多數美國人來說，買房已經成為不可能的夢想，因為近年來房價已經完全失控。

And in some specific places like California or New York, it is way worse than the national average.

在加州或紐約等一些特定地區，情況比全國平均水平還要糟得多。

And President Trump is about to make it a lot worse.

而川普總統即將讓情況變得更糟。

He just suggested that he is working on a plan to introduce 50 year mortgages.

他剛提議他正在制定一項引入50年抵押貸款的計畫。

On the surface, it seems like a good solution to a really complicated problem that the country has been facing over the last few years.

表面上看，這似乎是解決國家近年來面臨的真正複雜問題的好方法。

But if you dig into the numbers, it is actually a disaster.

但如果你深入分析數據，這實際上是一場災難。

It is literally going to turn these people into slaves.

And if you think that I am exaggerating, let me show you the numbers.

如果你認為我在誇大其詞，讓我來給你看看數據。

The real household income over the last 10 to 15 years haven't actually grown much in it has increased by about 18%, while house prices during the exact same period have increased by about 100%.

過去10到15年，實際家庭收入實際上並沒有增長多少，只增加了約18%，而同期房價卻上漲了約100%。

So if your essential expense have grown by 100% and your real income has grown by 18%, you simply cannot possibly afford that and it creates a problem.

所以如果你的基本開銷增加了100%，而你的實際收入只增加了18%，你根本不可能負擔得起，這就會造成一個問題。

So the real solution is either to increase your real household income so that it matches the house prices in the market or or bring down house prices to a level where you can actually afford them.

所以真正的解決方案是要嘛增加你的實際家庭收入，讓它能匹配市場上的房價，要嘛就是把房價降到你可以負擔的水準。

Any other solution doesn't seem like a real solution.

任何其他的解決方案看起來都不是真正的解決方案。

If we look at house prices, there are two ways to fix them.

如果我們看看房價，有兩種方法可以解決。

Last time the United States brought down house prices, it crushed the entire US economy.

上次美國降低房價時，整個美國經濟都崩潰了。

When house prices dropped in 2008, it took down with it the entire US economy.

2008年房價下跌時，整個美國經濟也隨之崩潰。

As a result of that, it took down with it the entire global economy.

結果，整個全球經濟也隨之崩潰。

And the entire global economy was suffering for the next few years just because the housing market in the United States has collapsed.

而整個全球經濟在那幾年都持續受到影響，僅僅是因為美國的房地產市場崩潰了。

So the government and the Fed most likely won't let anything like that to happen anytime soon.

所以政府和聯準會很可能不會讓這種事這麼快發生。

The second way to fix the housing problem is to bring down the mortgage rates.

解決房地產問題的第二種方法是降低抵押貸款利率。

低抵押貸款利率的時代已經結束了。

The best period for mortgages was after the 2008 financial crisis, up 2022.

抵押貸款的最佳時期是2008年金融危機之後，直到2022年。

We are not going back to that period, at least in the next 10, 15 years, primarily because the US government has generated trillions or dozens of trillions of dollars in debt.

我們不會回到那個時期了，至少在未來10到15年內不會，主要是因為美國政府已經產生了數兆甚至數十兆美元的債務。

And the US Government is forced to run a huge deficit to borrow money to ensure that it can pay the interest on that debt so that it does not default on that debt.

美國政府被迫巨額赤字借貸，以確保能支付債務利息，避免債務違約。

For example, this year, the total amount of interest the US government will pay is about $1.1 trillion.

舉例來說，今年美國政府將支付約1.1兆美元的利息總額。

1 While the total spending of the US government is about $7.2 trillion, while the tax revenues is about $5 trillion.

而美國政府的總支出約為7.2兆美元，稅收收入約為5兆美元。

So because the government is forced to borrow that money, it increases massively government spending.

所以，因為政府被迫借錢，政府的開銷就大幅增加。

Massive government spending leads to high inflation.

High inflation pushes the lenders to demand much higher interest rate on their investments.

高通膨迫使貸款機構要求他們投資更高的利率。

So the banks are forced to charge much higher mortgage rates.

所以銀行被迫收取更高的抵押貸款利率。

Even Donald Trump understands that that's not.

就連川普總統也明白那是不對的。

He forced the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.

他迫使聯邦準備理事會開始降低利率。

The Federal Reserve has bent the knee to Donald Trump and lowered interest rates.

聯邦準備理事會向川普總統屈服，降低了利率。

And based on the forecast, they will lower down interest rates to about 3% in the next six months.

根據預測，他們將在未來六個月內將利率降至約3%。

But you don't see that affecting mortgage rates.

但你沒看到這影響到抵押貸款利率。

Mortgage rates are still above 6% and they're not going down anytime soon.

抵押貸款利率仍高於6%，而且短期內不會下降。

Best case scenario, they could go down to as low as 5.5%.

最好的情況是，它們可能會降至5.5%的低點。

But even that most likely is not going to happen.

但即使那樣，很可能也不會發生。

And that's why the average age of the first time home buyers have increased dramatically.

這就是為什麼首次購房者的平均年齡顯著增加。

You got out of college, you worked for some time, you saved up some money, so you go and get yourself a house.

你大學畢業，工作一段時間，存了一些錢，然後就買房。

Now at 28 years old, most people cannot even dream for a house.

現在28歲，大多數人連買房都無法想像。

They have to save for the down payment up until they are 40 years old.

他們必須存到頭期款，直到40歲。

And you can see a dramatic increase back in 2020 because.

你可以看到2020年出現了顯著的增長，因為。

Because that's when house prices exploded.

So here is what Donald Trump is proposing.

所以川普總統現在提出的方案是這樣。

To understand Donald Trump's plan, we have to understand what FDR did.

要了解川普總統的方案，我們得先了解羅斯福總統當時做了什麼。

During Great Depression, the United States was facing the greatest crisis in the history of the US People start losing their houses, they began to default on their loans.

在大蕭條時期，美國面臨著美國史上最嚴重的危機，人們開始失去他們的房子，他們開始拖欠貸款。

So FDR, as part of the New deal came out with the proposal.

所以羅斯福總統在「新政」中提出了一個方案。

If you got a mortgage and you cannot pay it off, let's restructure your mortgage for far long period of time.

如果你有抵押貸款，但付不出來，那我們就把它重新安排成一個更長的還款期限。

And the government is going to back up that loan so you continue making your mortgage payments and you won't end up in the streets.

政府會擔保這筆貸款，這樣你就可以繼續繳納抵押貸款，而不會流落街頭。

The problem is that 30 year mortgages is not popular at all.

問題是，30年的抵押貸款一點都不受歡迎。

The bank takes money from the people with extra cash and it has to pay them some interest.

銀行會從手頭有多餘現金的人那裡收錢，並且要付給他們一些利息。

The bank will take that money and will provide it in form of different kind of loans, such as mortgages to people who want to borrow that and will charge them interest.

銀行會拿這些錢，然後以不同種類的貸款形式提供給想借錢的人，像是抵押貸款，並向他們收取利息。

Interest will go back into the hands of the bank.

The bank will pay a portion of that interest to a borrower.

銀行會將一部分利息付給借款人。

So the bank can actually offer you 8% and then pay the lender a 5% interest.

所以銀行實際上可以提供你 8% 的利率，然後付給貸方 5% 的利息。

And the 3% difference is going to be in the pockets of the bank because the bank is responsible in the front of the borrower.

那 3% 的差額就會進到銀行的口袋，因為銀行對借款人負責。

The bank does not want to provide 30 year mortgages since a lot of things would actually happen since and during that period, the longer the loan, the riskier it is going to be.

銀行不想提供 30 年期的抵押貸款，因為在這段期間可能會發生很多事，貸款時間越長，風險就越高。

Do you want to tie up all of your cash in the hands of somebody that will be paying you interest for the next 30 years?

你想把你的所有現金都鎖在一個未來 30 年都會付給你利息的人手上嗎？

Imagine you take a mortgage, a 30 year mortgage in 1935.

想像一下，你在 1935 年申請了一筆抵押貸款，一筆 30 年期的抵押貸款。

By the time you pay it, it is going to be 1965.

等你付清的時候，就已經是 1965 年了。

So during that time World War II happens, the entire world changes.

在那段時間，第二次世界大戰發生了，整個世界都改變了。

The US dollar becomes the global reserve currency.

The Vietnam War most likely happened during that time.

越戰很可能就發生在那段時間。

The imagine how many things happen in that 30 years.

想像一下，那 30 年發生了多少事情。

And that's why the bankers are like, we can offer you loans but for five years, 10 years, best case scenario, 15 years.

這就是為什麼銀行家會說，我們可以提供貸款給你，但只能是五年、十年，最好的情況是十五年。

But if the government of the United States will back up those mortgages, then the risks instantly go down.

但如果美國政府願意為這些抵押貸款提供擔保，風險就會瞬間降低。

And that provides some kind of security to the banks to offer 30 year mortgages.

這就為銀行提供了某種程度的保障，讓他們可以提供 30 年期的抵押貸款。

And that's how FDR solved the housing crisis back during the Great Depression.

這就是羅斯福總統在大蕭條時期解決房地產市場危機的方法。

It wasn't a perfect fix, but it actually worked for some time.

這不是一個完美的解決方案，但確實奏效了一段時間。

And now Donald Trump wants to propose something like that.

而現在川普總統想提出類似的方案。

But with 50 year mortgages, is it going to help?

但有了 50 年的抵押貸款，這會有幫助嗎？

Well, let's take a real life example and see how that is going to impact you.

嗯，我們來看看實際的例子，瞭解這會如何影響你。

Let's imagine the size of the loan is $400,000.

Either you're taking a complete mortgage for $400,000 or you are getting or buying a $500,000 house, putting a $100,000 down payment, which makes the total amount of the loan 400,000.

要嘛你拿 40 萬美元的完整抵押貸款，要嘛你買一棟 50 萬美元的房子，付 10 萬美元頭期款，這樣貸款總額就是 40 萬。

And let's assume that your mortgage rate is about 6%.

我們假設你的抵押貸款利率大約是 6%。

So if you're actually taking a 30 year mortgage, your monthly payments would be $2,398 in total.

所以如果你真的拿 30 年期的抵押貸款，你的每月付款總額會是 2,398 美元。

You will end up paying $863,000 and the total amount of interest will be even higher than the price of the house at $463,000.

最後你會支付 86.3 萬美元，而總利息甚至會比房價 46.3 萬美元還要高。

Well, that's the price that you pay because you couldn't actually afford it with cash.

嗯，這就是你付出的代價，因為你實際上無法用現金負擔。

And you are borrowing that money for the next 30 years.

And now let's take the exact same scenario and apply it to a 50 year mortgage, assuming that it is going to be the exact same loan and the exact same mortgage rate.

現在我們就用一模一樣的情境，來試算 50 年的抵押貸款，假設貸款總額和抵押貸款利率都一樣。

Your monthly payments wouldn't be that different at about $2075.

你的每月還款額不會差太多，大約是 2,075 美元。

But in total you will pay about $1.2 million.

但總共你會支付大約 120 萬美元。

And the total amount of interest will be $865,000.

Do you see how much in interest you are going to pay just because it's a 50 year mortgage?

你看，光是因為是 50 年的抵押貸款，你就要支付這麼多利息，是不是很驚人？

Basically, you will pay far more in interest than the price of the house.

基本上，你支付的利息會遠遠超過房子的價格。

And that's primarily because when you take that mortgage, most of your payments are going to go into interest payments.

這主要是因為當你申請抵押貸款時，你的還款大部分都會先付利息。

And as you start building up equity in that house, the interest payments are going to go down.

當你開始累積房屋淨值時，利息支付的比例就會下降。

And most of your payments would go into building equity and home ownership in that house that you have purchased.

而且你的還款大部分都會用來累積你所購買房屋的淨值和所有權。

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川普竟然做了「這件」讓人無法置信的事… 情況真的糟透了！ (Trump Just Did The UNTHINKABLE... It's REALLY Bad)

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