Name: 現在的人工智能保麗龍遠比互聯網保麗龍更可怕 (AI Bubble Now is Far WORSE Than Dot Com Bubble)
Uploaded: 2025-10-25T18:08:47.000Z
Duration: 10 min 16 s

The AI bubble is about to get a lot worse.

JP Morgan expects the Federal Reserve to cut the interest rates twice this year and one more time next year.

JP Morgan 預計美國聯邦準備理事會今年會降息兩次，明年再降一次。

情態副詞

That will bring the total effective interest rates to about 325%, which is considerably lower than 5.5% of their peak back in 2022.

這將使總有效利率來到約 3.25%，遠低於 2022 年高峰時的 5.5%。

The fact that the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates in September of this year shocked everybody.

美國聯邦準備理事會今年九月就降息了，這件事讓大家都很驚訝。

Since the Federal Reserve is still far away from its targeted goal of NFL duration of 2%.

因為美國聯邦準備理事會離他們設定的 2% NFL 目標還很遠。

If the Fed lowers interest rates, that will essentially bring the treasury bill rates to about the inflation rate, which will disrupt the bond market.

如果聯準會降息，國庫券利率就會跟通貨膨脹率差不多，這會擾亂債券市場。

The US Bond market is the backbone of the US Economy and the backbone of what makes the United States dollar the global reserve currency.

美國債券市場是美國經濟的骨幹，也是讓美元成為全球儲備貨幣的基礎。

It's being held by the central banks across the globe, such as the bank of Japan, the bank of England, and

全球的中央銀行，像是日本銀行、英格蘭銀行，以及

還有許多美國銀行和外國銀行，都持有美國債券。

And the only reason that these banks across the globe are holding so much US Dollars is that these US Dollars are not in cash, but

而全球這些銀行之所以持有這麼多美元，唯一的原因是這些美元並非現金，而是

rather US treasury bills, which means that they are earning interest because they hold these treasury bills.

而是美國國庫券，這代表他們透過持有這些國庫券來賺取利息。

And that's why a lot of commercial banks and central banks, instead of holding a lot of gold, they would rather hold U.S.

這也是為什麼許多商業銀行和中央銀行，與其持有大量黃金，他們寧願持有美國

treasury bills since they are earning an interest that is higher than the real inflation rate.

國庫券，因為他們可以賺取比實質通貨膨脹率還高的利息。

Which means that we're consistently making money.

And whenever we need to turn those treasury bills into US dollars, we can instantly do that in the US bond market.

而每當我們需要將這些國庫券轉換成美元時，我們可以在美國債券市場立即完成。

Every single day, about $900 billion, up to $1.5 trillion from treasury bills is converted into cash in the US bond market.

每天，大約有 9000 億美元，甚至高達 1.5 兆美元的國庫券在美國債券市場轉換成現金。

So central banks, US banks and foreign banks are not afraid.

所以中央銀行、美國銀行和外國銀行都不害怕。

They could be holding hundreds of billions of dollars of treasury bills that they know that they can instantly turn into US Dollars.

他們可以持有數千億美元的國庫券，而且他們知道可以立即將其轉換成美元。

But this system only works earning higher interest than the inflation rate.

但這個系統只有在賺取的利息高於通貨膨脹率時才有效。

If inflation rate suddenly becomes higher than the interest that these banks and central banks are earning on the treasury bills, it breaks up the system.

如果通貨膨脹率突然高於這些銀行和中央銀行在國庫券上賺取的利息，這個系統就會崩潰。

you are making much more than the inflation rate, which is why you would hold a lot of treasury bills.

你賺取的利息會遠高於通貨膨脹率，這就是為什麼你會持有大量的國庫券。

But if suddenly, if treasury bills are earning 3% while inflation is 4%, then you're consistently losing money, which means that you don't want to hold a lot of treasury bills.

但如果突然間，國庫券的報酬率是 3%，而通貨膨脹率是 4%，那你就是在持續虧損，這代表你不會想持有太多國庫券。

This is why most of the world uses dollar as the global reserve currency and not any other currencies such as the euro, because it's simply much more profitable to hold US dollars.

這就是為什麼世界上大多數國家都使用美元作為全球儲備貨幣，而不是像歐元這樣的其他貨幣，因為持有美元的獲利能力實在是高太多了。

So if we cut the interest rates three times by 25 basis points within the next six months.

所以，如果我們在接下來的六個月內，將利率調降三次，每次 25 個基點。

That will bring the total interest rates or the effective interest rates to 3.25%.

這將使總利率或有效利率達到 3.25%。

The current inflation rate or the core CPI is about 3.1%.

目前的通貨膨脹率或核心 CPI 大約是 3.1%。

So essentially the interest rates or the interest rates will be as much as the inflation rate.

所以基本上，利率將會和通貨膨脹率差不多。

Especially lower interest rates could even increase inflation.

特別是較低的利率甚至可能導致通貨膨脹上升。

And we can find ourselves in positions where inflation will be higher than the effective interest rates.

我們可能會發現自己處於利率比通貨膨脹率還高的情況。

Since the Federal Reserve is the largest buyer of treasury bills, it is strong demand is going to bring down the yields on treasury bills which is going to impact everybody else.

由於美國聯邦準備理事會是國庫券最大的買家，強勁的需求將會壓低國庫券的殖利率，進而影響到其他人。

Even if foreign nations that hold a lot of treasury bills, they will suffer as well.

即使是持有大量國庫券的外國，他們也會遭受損失。

Because that magnificent or huge demand by the Federal Reserve will bring down the yields which is going to impact the entire market.

因為美國聯邦準備理事會那龐大或巨大的需求，將會壓低殖利率，進而影響整個市場。

The current yields on 10 year government bonds is about 3.9% or almost 4%.

目前十年期政府債券的殖利率大約是 3.9% 或將近 4%。

But if you look at short term treasury bills, such as two year treasury bills, they're about 3.5%.

但如果你看短期國庫券，像是兩年期國庫券，大約是 3.5%。

The difference between the real inflation, the core CPI and the yields on the government bonds is already very small.

實質通貨膨脹，也就是核心 CPI，和政府債券殖利率之間的差距已經非常小了。

And by lowering interest rates, it is going to turn the entire dynamic upside down.

而透過調降利率，將會讓整個局面徹底顛倒。

Which means that holding treasury bills is going to be extremely unprofitable, profitable, especially in the long run.

這意味著持有國庫券將會變得極度無利可圖，尤其是在長期來看。

Banks don't have the option to completely get rid of their government bonds because if you're a bank, you must have a considerable amount of treasury bills.

銀行沒有辦法完全擺脫他們的政府債券，因為如果你是銀行，你必須持有相當數量的國庫券。

However, investors who can get rid of their treasury bills will most likely do that because you can get far more money in the stock market than losing money with treasury bills.

但如果投資人可以出脫他們的國庫券，他們很可能會這麼做，因為股票市場能賺到的錢，遠比國庫券賠錢來得多。

Which is why there is a probability that more money will be flowing from the bond market into the stock market, which is going to make the entire bubble that we have right now a lot worse.

這就是為什麼很有可能會有更多資金從債券市場流向股票市場，這會讓我們現在整個保麗龍變得更糟。

The second problem is that the Federal Reserve is taking untraditional move.

第二個問題是，美國聯邦準備理事會正在採取非傳統的舉動。

Usually the Federal Reserve hike the interest rates to battle any kind of bubbles.

通常美國聯邦準備理事會會調高利率來對抗任何類型的保麗龍。

So if you go back for example, to 1990s and early 2000s, you can see that when the bubble was forming around this time, the central bank back in 1995 instantly raised the interest rates to 6%.

所以如果你回到 1990 年代和 2000 年代初期，你會看到當保麗龍在這時候形成時，1995 年的中央銀行立刻將利率調高到 6%。

And if that wasn't enough, back in early 2000s, the Federal Reserve hiked the interest rates to about 6.5% to ensure that the dot com bubble is not going to get a lot bigger.

而且如果這還不夠，在 2000 年代初期，美國聯邦準備理事會將利率調高到約 6.5%，以確保網路保麗龍不會變得更大。

Even if that bubble is going to burst, yes, there is going to be a shock in the market.

即使那個保麗龍會破裂，是的，市場會受到衝擊。

But if we fuel this bubble, if we let this bubble to get even bigger, the catastrophic crash at the end is going to get far bigger.

但如果我們助長這個保麗龍，如果我們讓這個保麗龍變得更大，最終災難性的崩盤將會更大。

So let us experience a smaller crash today than a far bigger crash tomorrow.

所以，讓我們今天經歷一個較小的崩盤，而不是明天經歷一個更大的崩盤。

Which is why every single time when a bubble was formed in the market, the Federal Reserve has always hiked interest rates.

這就是為什麼每次市場出現保麗龍時，美國聯邦準備理事會總是會調高利率。

Back in 2004 and 2005, when the federal Reserve realized that the market is turning into one giant bubble, the Federal Reserve instantly hiked the interest rates to about 5.5% to prevent the bubble from getting even bigger.

回到 2004 年和 2005 年，當美國聯邦準備理事會意識到市場正在變成一個巨大的保麗龍時，他們立刻將利率調高到約 5.5%，以防止保麗龍變得更大。

Yes, at the end of the day, that bubble got so big that it almost destroyed the entire global economy.

是的，歸根究柢，那個保麗龍變得如此巨大，幾乎摧毀了整個全球經濟。

But nonetheless, that was the policy of the Fed.

但儘管如此，這就是聯準會的政策。

This time, when we are actually experiencing an AI bubble, the Federal Reserve is doing the absolute opposite.

這一次，當我們真的經歷 AI 保麗龍時，美國聯邦準備理事會卻做了完全相反的事。

Instead of hiking the interest rates to prevent that bubble from getting bigger and bigger, the Federal Reserve is about to lower interest rates, which is going to make the cost of borrowing money much cheaper, which is going to fuel that bubble to get even bigger.

他們沒有調高利率來防止這個保麗龍越來越大，反而即將要調降利率，這會讓借錢的成本變得更便宜，進而助長這個保麗龍變得更大。

Seems like this bubble is going to get a lot worse than the dot com bubble.

看起來這個保麗龍可能會比網路保麗龍嚴重得多。

Imagine if the Federal Reserve back in 1999, instead of hiking the interest rates from about 4.5% to 6.5%, it would have lowered the interest rates to 3%.

想像一下，如果美國聯邦準備理事會在 1999 年，沒有把利率從約 4.5% 調升到 6.5%，而是降到 3%。

The.com crash would not have happened and the dot com bubble would have grown much bigger.

網路保麗龍就不會破裂，而且網路保麗龍會變得更大。

It's also going to have a psychological effect.

Imagine if you were an investor in the market and you see that the Federal Reserve is lowering interest rates.

想像一下，如果你是市場上的投資人，看到美國聯邦準備理事會正在調降利率。

Are you going to sell your investments and be much more careful or you're anticipating that more money will enter into the market.

你會賣掉你的投資，變得更小心，還是你預期會有更多資金流入市場？

It is going to make it a lot more cheaper for these corporations to borrow money, which is going to continue fueling their funding, fueling those stock prices.

這會讓這些公司借錢變得便宜很多，這會持續為他們的資金、推升股價提供動力。

So why sell your stock prices when cheap money is about to enter into the economy?

所以，當便宜的資金即將流入經濟時，為什麼要賣掉你的股票呢？

After lower interest rates, there could be a period of quantitative easing.

在降低利率之後，可能會有一段時間的量化寬鬆。

The Fed could stop the quantitative tightening and start throwing more money into the economy.

Fed 可以停止量化緊縮，開始向經濟注入更多資金。

So that psychological effect is going to push more investors to keep investing in the market, creating an even bigger bubble compared to the bubble that we have right now.

所以這種心理效應會促使更多投資者繼續投資市場，創造一個比現在的保麗龍還要大的保麗龍。

It seems like Trump has won the feud against the Federal Reserve.

看起來川普贏了跟美國聯邦準備理事會的這場爭鬥。

Remember when Donald Trump just became the president?

還記得唐納川普剛當上總統的時候嗎？

Literally, for the first six to seven months of his presidency, he was insulting the chairman of the Fed as much as he could.

真的，在他總統任期的前六到七個月，他盡可能地侮辱 Fed 的主席。

Jay Paul, he was literally standing every single time his run, he's like, look, the economy is very strong, inflation is very high, and

Jay Paul 每次跑的時候，他都會說，看，經濟非常強勁，通貨膨脹非常高，而且

we have to do everything possible to bring that inflation down to our targeted 2%.

我們必須盡一切可能將通貨膨脹降至我們目標的 2%。

And every single time that Donald Trump would insult him, he's like, no, this is our objective, and

每次唐納川普侮辱他，他都說，不，這是我們的目標，而且

And the Federal Reserve hasn't actually achieved its objective of 2%.

美國聯邦準備理事會實際上並未實現其 2% 的目標。

Inflation is back from its 2.8%, that was the lowest back in May, to about 3.1%.

通貨膨脹率從 5 月份的最低點 2.8% 回升到約 3.1%。

And now it seems like with lower rates, inflation is going to spike to 3.5% or even 4%.

而現在看來，隨著利率下降，通貨膨脹將飆升至 3.5% 甚至 4%。

Does that mean that the Federal Reserve is no longer independent?

這是否意味著美國聯邦準備理事會不再獨立？

Why did the Federal Reserve suddenly change its goals and now is following the desires of Donald Trump?

美國聯邦準備理事會為何突然改變目標，現在又在追隨唐納川普的意願？

Now, I don't have anything against Donald Trump.

現在，我對唐納川普沒有任何意見。

It just makes the entire situation very weird that on one side you've been shouting for almost a year that you're going to stand your ground and you will achieve the targeted inflation of 2%.

這讓整個情況變得非常奇怪，一方面你喊了一年多，說你會堅持立場，實現 2% 的目標通貨膨脹。

And now suddenly, your policy perfectly aligns with the policies of Donald Trump.

而現在突然之間，你的政策卻完美地符合唐納川普的政策。

And that's why, if you pay attention, over the last two months, Donald Trump has never insulted Jay Paul as if they actually agreed that.

這就是為什麼，如果你有注意的話，過去兩個月，唐納川普從來沒有侮辱過 Jay Paul，好像他們其實達成共識了。

All right, Donald Trump, if you want lower interest rates, we will lower them down and to about 3%.

好的，唐納川普，如果你想要降低利率，我們就會把它們降到大約 3%。

So that sends a very negative message to the market.

所以這向市場傳達了一個非常負面的訊息。

That sends a very bad message to investors that inflation will continue rising.

這向投資者傳達了一個非常糟糕的訊息，那就是通貨膨脹將會持續上漲。

So do not hold cash and make sure that your money is invested somewhere.

所以不要持有現金，確保你的錢有投資在某個地方。

Since inflation is going to eat it away, and

由於通貨膨脹會侵蝕你的購買力，而且

since the bond market is not providing enough returns, then the only alternative that is left for you is the stock market, which could push the market to get even bigger or which could push that bubble to get even bigger.

債券市場又無法提供足夠的回報，那麼你唯一剩下的選擇就是股市，這可能會讓市場變得更大，或者讓那個保麗龍變得更大。

I don't think the market has been as complicated as it's today, because if the Fed steps in with its cheap money, yes, it is going to save the market for some time, but

我認為市場從來沒有像現在這麼複雜，因為如果聯準會進場灑錢，

雖然短期內能拯救市場，但這不會持續太久。

However, even if the market crashes later on, it doesn't mean that every single stock is going to suffer.

不過，即使市場之後崩盤，也不代表所有股票都會受影響。

So if you want to know what are the top five stocks that you should be buying that are going to survive the crash, then check out the first link in the description of this video.

所以如果你想知道哪些是崩盤時能存活下來的五檔首選股票，請看看這個影片說明欄的第一個連結。

今天的內容就到這裡了，各位。

Thanks for watching and I will see you in the next one.