Name: 房地產市場即將變得醜陋--現在就做好準備！ (The Housing Market’s About to Get Ugly - Prepare Now!)
Uploaded: 2025-10-15T18:20:26.000Z
Duration: 13 min 59 s

程度副詞

The Federal Reserve just made an important announcement about the housing market.

美國聯邦準備理事會剛對房地產市場發布了一項重要聲明。

It signaled to the market that the housing market is no longer going to be the same.

這向市場傳達了一個訊號，房地產市場將不再像以往一樣。

With each consecutive year, buying a house will become more and more difficult.

隨著年復一年，買房會變得越來越困難。

If you think that I am exaggerating, let me explain what exactly the chairman of the Fed said and how that is going to impact the market.

如果你覺得我在誇大其詞，讓我來解釋一下聯準會主席到底說了什麼，以及這將如何影響市場。

The housing market or the housing prices consist of two main factors.

房地產市場或房價主要由兩個因素組成。

The main factor is of course, the price of the house.

And prices have been rising dramatically.

However, if you look at what's happening recently in the last two to three years, at least since 2022, you see that house prices are fluctuating.

然而，如果你看看最近兩三年，至少自2022年以來的情況，你會發現房價正在波動。

But overall they are no longer rising as fast as they have been back in 2020 and 2021.

但總體而言，它們不再像2020年和2021年那樣快速上漲了。

As if there is not enough demand to push prices higher, house prices have reached to a level where the vast majority of people cannot possibly buy a house.

好像需求不足以推高房價一樣，房價已經漲到大多數人都買不起房子的程度了。

Maybe sometime in the future those prices are going to come down.

But house prices is just one part of the equation.

但房價只是這個方程式的一部分。

The vast majority of people buy houses with a mortgage.

大多數人買房都是靠抵押貸款。

So the numbers that we have to pay attention to are the mortgage rates.

所以我們要關注的數字是抵押貸款利率。

If mortgage rates are going to come down and house prices are still the same, people will still be able to afford houses.

如果抵押貸款利率下降，而房價不變，大家還是買得起房子。

Housing yet again will become affordable.

But if you look at the mortgage rates, suddenly you won't see actually really great news.

但如果你看看抵押貸款利率，你會發現情況並沒有那麼好。

Yes, they have slightly calmed down, but they have been fluctuating over the last couple of years.

是的，它們稍微平穩了一些，但過去幾年一直在波動。

The real question that we should be answering is that what exactly determines the mortgage rates?

所以我們要回答的真正問題是，究竟是什麼決定了抵押貸款利率？

Most people tend to think that if the Federal Reserve will lower the interest rate, mortgage rates will naturally come down.

大多數人認為，如果美國聯邦準備理事會降低利率，抵押貸款利率自然會下降。

But over the last couple of months, the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates.

但在過去幾個月，美國聯邦準備理事會已經降低了利率。

Last year in September and November, most likely, the Federal Reserve has also lowered down interest rates.

去年九月和十一月，很可能美國聯邦準備理事會也降低了利率。

But if you look at the mortgage rates, they have actually grown in the beginning of 2025 and there hasn't been any significant decrease in in mortgage rates.

但如果你看看抵押貸款利率，你會發現它們在 2025 年初實際上已經上漲，而且抵押貸款利率並沒有顯著下降。

So there might be many other factors that influences the mortgage rates besides the Federal Reserve's interest rates.

所以，除了美國聯邦準備理事會的利率之外，可能還有很多其他因素影響著抵押貸款利率。

Now, to understand who sets them, you have to understand how housing works.

現在，要了解是誰設定了它們，你必須瞭解房地產市場是如何運作的。

Imagine you have a lot of mortgages, 1, 2, 3, and then thousands of mortgages in the market.

想像一下，你有很多抵押貸款，一筆、兩筆、三筆，然後市場上有成千上萬筆抵押貸款。

These mortgages often are turned into mortgage backed securities and are sold to investors.

這些抵押貸款經常被轉化為抵押貸款支持證券，並出售給投資者。

And the demand for these mortgage backed securities determine what is going to be the mortgage rate in the market.

而這些抵押貸款支持證券的需求，就決定了市場上的抵押貸款利率會是多少。

If there is very strong demand for these mortgage backed securities, then investors can sell them by providing lower interest rates.

如果這些抵押貸款支持證券的需求非常強勁，那麼投資者就可以透過提供較低的利率來賣出它們。

there's so many people are willing to lend you money, you will provide them with a lower interest rate.

有很多人願意借錢給你，你就會提供給他們較低的利率。

But what if you are bad with money and nobody is willing to gamble their money with you?

但如果你很不擅長理財，而且沒人願意冒險把錢借給你呢？

You took money from your friends in the past, but did not give them back.

你過去曾向朋友借錢，但沒有還給他們。

You took money from your neighbors and then you blocked them on WhatsApp.

你向鄰居借錢，然後在 WhatsApp 上封鎖了他們。

And that's why now the risks to loan you money are much higher.

這就是為什麼現在借錢給你風險高了很多。

And that's why if you want to borrow money now, you will offer a much higher interest rate in order to worth the risks.

所以如果你現在想借錢，你得提供更高的利率來彌補風險。

And that's exactly how any investment works.

So the question that we have to answer is that is the demand for mortgage backed securities is rising or the demand for the mortgage backed securities is falling down.

所以我們要回答的問題是，抵押貸款證券的需求正在上漲，還是正在下跌。

There are three main sources for the demand for the mortgage backed securities.

抵押貸款證券的需求有三個主要來源。

The first one is of course local investors, average normal investors who have extra money and they want to invest it somewhere so they could be buying mortgage backed securities.

第一個當然是在地投資者，也就是手上有閒錢想投資的普通投資者，他們可能會購買抵押貸款證券。

We have institutional investors such as financial institutions, hedge funds, huge banks such as Wells Fargo, Citi or JP Morgan.

我們還有機構投資者，像是金融機構、避險基金、像 Wells Fargo、Citi 或 JP Morgan 這樣的大銀行。

There is always some kind of a demand for mortgage backed securities because they are backed by real houses.

抵押貸款證券總會有一定的需求，因為它們有實際的房屋作為抵押。

And because these houses have intrinsic value within themselves, they the risks for them to be defaulted is extremely low.

而且因為這些房屋本身具有內在價值，它們違約的風險非常低。

Yes, there is always some kind of a risk, especially after the 2008 financial crisis.

是的，總會有一定的風險，尤其是在 2008 年金融危機之後。

But nonetheless, a lot of financial institutions are ready to keep a portion of their investments in mortgage backed securities.

但儘管如此，許多金融機構還是願意將一部分投資放在抵押貸款證券上。

While it's very difficult to track how strong is the demand for mortgage backed securities, we can take a look at how strong the demand for the ETFs that invest in mortgage backed securities.

雖然很難精確掌握抵押貸款擔保證券的需求有多強勁，但我們可以看看投資於抵押貸款擔保證券的 ETF 的需求有多強。

Now an ETF is a financial institutions that take investors money and invest them in certain type of assets.

ETF 是一種金融機構，它們會收取投資者的資金，然後投資於特定類型的資產。

So we have ETFs that invest in a certain industry, for example a tech industry.

所以我們有投資於特定產業的 ETF，例如科技產業。

We have ETFs that exclusively invest in car companies.

我們有專門投資汽車公司的 ETF。

So they take investors money and they will only invest in car companies.

所以它們會收取投資者的資金，並且只投資於汽車公司。

We have ETFs that invest only in real estate and then we have ETFs that exclusively invest only in mortgage backed securities.

我們有隻投資於房地產的 ETF，然後我們也有專門只投資於抵押貸款擔保證券的 ETF。

MBS ETF is one of those ETFs that exclusively only invests in mortgage backed securities.

MBS ETF 就是其中一種專門只投資於抵押貸款擔保證券的 ETF。

And by tracking the price of this ETF we can figure out how strong is the demand for mortgage backed securities.

透過追蹤這檔 ETF 的價格，我們就能瞭解抵押貸款擔保證券的需求有多強勁。

Since the creation of this ETF, the demand has been extremely strong.

自從這檔 ETF 成立以來，需求一直非常強勁。

Even during the 2008 financial crisis, there was still some demand for these mortgage backed securities.

即使在 2008 年的金融危機期間，這些抵押貸款擔保證券仍然有一些需求。

However, in 2022, something happens and the demand for mortgage backed securities completely collapses.

然而，在 2022 年，發生了一些事情，抵押貸款擔保證券的需求完全崩潰了。

And even though that three years almost has passed since the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates, that demand hasn't actually recovered.

儘管美國聯邦準備理事會升息至今已將近三年，但需求實際上並未恢復。

In fact, if you look at the numbers over the last year, you don't see a real difference.

事實上，如果你看看過去一年的數字，你會發現沒有真正的差異。

這檔 ETF 的價格大約是 95 美元。

It has been rising slightly and then dropping after that.

它先是略微上漲，然後又下跌了。

But overall the demand has not recovered over the last 12 months.

但總體而言，過去 12 個月的需求並未恢復。

So the appetite of investors within the United States for mortgage backed securities isn't that strong.

所以美國國內投資者對於抵押貸款支持證券的胃口並沒有那麼強勁。

So there isn't strong demand, which is why mortgage rates are not falling down.

所以需求不強，這就是為什麼抵押貸款利率沒有下降。

But local investors are not the only investors who are buying mortgage backed securities.

但在地投資者並非購買抵押貸款支持證券的唯一投資者。

The second big or the largest investor in mortgage backed securities is the Federal Reserve.

第二大，或者說最大的抵押貸款支持證券投資者是美國聯邦準備理事會。

Now, the Fed should not intervene in MBS in the first place, but to save the economy.

現在，聯準會本來就不應該介入抵押貸款支持證券，而是為了拯救經濟。

Back in 2008, Federal Reserve decided that it will start buying mortgage backed securities.

回到 2008 年，美國聯邦準備理事會決定開始購買抵押貸款支持證券。

But it's actually extremely risky and extremely bad for the market.

但這實際上對市場來說是極度危險且極度糟糕的。

It was because of the Federal Reserve that house prices have skyrocketed back in 2020 and 2021.

正是因為美國聯邦準備理事會，房價在 2020 年和 2021 年才會飆升。

And now the Federal Reserve is on a to further lower its balance sheet to get rid of all of the mortgage backed securities that it have purchased in the past.

而現在，聯準會正著手進一步縮減其資產負債表，以擺脫過去購買的所有抵押貸款支持證券。

It started tightening its balance sheet back in 2022 as you can clearly see on this graph.

正如您在這張圖表中清楚看到的，它在 2022 年開始緊縮其資產負債表。

And currently it's sitting on about $2.1 trillion of mortgage backed securities.

而目前它持有大約 2.1 兆美元的抵押貸款支持證券。

And the Chairman of the Fed made it clear that we want to continue tightening and continue selling all our mortgage backed securities.

聯準會主席已經說得很清楚，我們要繼續緊縮並繼續賣掉我們所有的抵押貸款支持證券。

So when you're selling, you're increasing the supply of mortgage backed securities in the market while there isn't enough demand in the market which is leading mortgage backed securities to rise or which is leading mortgage rates to rise.

所以當你賣出的時候，你就是在增加市場上抵押貸款支持證券的供應，但市場上的需求卻不足，這導致抵押貸款支持證券上漲，或者說這導致抵押貸款利率上漲。

Consistent with our long standing guidance, we aim for a portfolio consisting primarily of treasury securities over the longer run.

與我們長期的指導方針一致，我們的目標是長期來看，投資組合主要由國庫券組成。

So Federal Reserve wants to get rid of the mortgage backed securities so that the balance sheet of the Fed primarily only consists of treasury bills.

所以美國聯邦準備理事會想要擺脫抵押貸款支持證券，這樣聯準會的資產負債表主要就只剩下國庫券了。

So it will continue funding the government, but it won't continue funding the housing market.

所以它會繼續為政府融資，但不會繼續為房地產市場融資。

And that's most likely because the US Government debt is rising so much that the Federal Reserve has to prepare itself to keep buying more and more US Government debt.

這很可能是因為美國政府債務正在大幅上漲，以至於美國聯邦準備理事會必須準備好不斷購買更多美國政府債務。

Because the demand for the US Government debt isn't as high as it was in the past.

因為對美國政府債務的需求不像過去那麼高了。

And secondly, that debt has grown to such a level that there might not be enough wealth in the world to buy so many U.S.

其次，這些債務已經成長到一個程度，世界上可能沒有足夠的財富來購買這麼多的美國。

And that's why the Federal Reserve might be getting rid of the mortgage backed securities to make sure that it has the ability to buy more U.S.

這就是為什麼美國聯邦準備理事會可能會拋售抵押貸款擔保證券，以確保它有能力購買更多美國。

treasury bills to help the government to avoid any kind of a default, any charm in the future.

國庫券，以幫助政府避免任何形式的違約，以及未來的任何麻煩。

The third party that invests in mortgage backed securities are foreign investors.

投資抵押貸款擔保證券的第三方是外國投資者。

People outside the United States who see a very great opportunity in the United States who want to make money with deep pockets who are ready to invest in the United States.

美國以外的人們看到了美國的巨大機會，他們想賺錢，他們財力雄厚，準備好投資美國。

And investing in the housing market through mortgage backed securities is one of the best ways to do that.

透過抵押貸款擔保證券投資房地產市場是做到這一點的最佳方法之一。

So here is what foreign entities would do.

Since the United States is an import driven economy that based on consumption it has one of the or had one of the lowest tariffs in the world.

由於美國是一個以消費為基礎的進口驅動型經濟體，它的關稅是世界上最低的之一。

So bringing stuff to the United States and selling them in the US was one of the best businesses you could make.

是以，將商品運往美國並在美國銷售是你能做的最好的生意之一。

And that's why the United States had some of the largest trade balances with the rest of the world.

這就是為什麼美國與世界其他地區有巨大的貿易順差。

It is very rare that the United States had a trade surplus with any country.

美國與任何國家都有貿易順差的情況非常罕見。