Name: 阿根廷經濟正在崩潰，其嚴重程度遠超您的預期 (Argentina’s Economy Is Collapsing, And Its Far Worse Than You Expect)
Uploaded: 2025-10-13T07:53:32.000Z
Duration: 16 min 56 s

The United States had to bail out Argentina before it turns into a disaster.

美國得紓困阿根廷，以免情況變成一場災難。

程度副詞

The United States government just spent $20 billion saving Argentina.

美國政府剛花費200億美元拯救阿根廷。

But it's not going to help because the situation is going to get a lot worse.

但這沒辦法幫助，因為情況會變得更糟。

Argentina not that long ago was one of the richest countries in the world.

不久前，阿根廷曾是世界上最富有的國家之一。

But the moment the government intervened in the economy, it turned into a disaster.

但政府幹預經濟的時刻，就變成了一場災難。

And this is where Argentina is right now, when the US had to step in and bail out the government.

這就是阿根廷現在的情況，美國得介入並紓困政府。

Unfortunately, the United States is on the exact same trajectory where the US Government is intervening in the economy more and more.

不幸的是，美國正走上完全相同的軌跡，美國政府越來越多地幹預經濟。

Every single time that the government tries to take the money from the rich people and distribute it and give it to the poor people, it ends up destroying the entire economy, where it's not just going to destroy the lives of the rich people, but

每次政府試圖從富人手中拿錢並分配給窮人時，最終都會摧毀整個經濟，不僅摧毀富人的生活，

it's going to make the lives of the poor people and even poor.

還會讓窮人的生活變得更糟，甚至更窮。

So let's try to figure out what exactly is happening to Argentina and why Donald Trump decided to give Argentina $20 billion.

所以，我們來試著弄清楚阿根廷到底發生了什麼事，以及為什麼川普決定要給阿根廷200億美元。

The Argentinian economy has been on a roller coaster.

阿根廷經濟就像坐雲霄飛車一樣。

Sometimes it's growing tremendously and then there are times when it's collapsing dramatically.

有時候會大幅成長，然後又會有大幅崩潰的時候。

However, the real tragedy was recently where the Argentinian economy, since early 2000s was growing tremendously, but

然而，真正的悲劇是最近，阿根廷經濟自2000年代初期以來一直在蓬勃發展，但是

However, it recovered since then, but it seems like it is on a trajectory to completely collapse.

不過，從那之後有復甦，但看起來又走上了完全崩潰的軌跡。

The situation gets even worse when you look at the inflation data.

當你看看通膨數據時，情況變得更糟。

The average inflation before the current crisis was about 50% in the U.S.

在目前危機之前，美國的平均通膨大約是50%。

everybody is complaining about an inflation rate of 2.9%.

This is what a real catastrophe looks like.

When the United States was going through an inflation of almost 9% in 2022, Argentina was having an inflation rate of 300%.

當美國在2022年經歷近9%的通膨時，阿根廷的通膨率高達300%。

This is by far one of the highest inflation all across the globe.

這絕對是全球通膨率最高的國家之一。

Just by looking at these numbers, you can say that Argentina is in a very serious crisis.

光看這些數字，你就可以說阿根廷正處於非常嚴重的危機。

However, they have solved a lot of their problems and inflation has cooled down to 36%.

不過，他們已經解決了很多問題，通膨也降到了36%。

That is 12 to 13 times the inflation rate of the United States.

這大約是美國通膨率的12到13倍。

This is the kind of inflation that does not allow anybody to do business.

這種通膨會讓任何人無法做生意。

Can you actually live in a country where inflation is 36% or 300% in some cases?

你真的能在一個通膨率是36%，甚至在某些情況下是300%的國家生活嗎？

The central bank of Argentina reacted by increasing the interest rates to 126%.

阿根廷央行對此的反應是將利率提高到126%。

Everybody is complaining that interest rates in The United States are 4% and that's too high.

大家都在抱怨美國4%的利率太高了。

We need at least 3% to do business in Argentina.

我們在阿根廷做生意至少需要3%。

But because they have fixed inflation and brought it down to 36%.

但因為他們固定了通膨，並將其降至36%。

And this number is not going to come down anytime soon.

And Argentinian government, like any other government, borrows a lot of money.

阿根廷政府，和其他政府一樣，會借很多錢。

Imagine at what interest rate the Argentinian government had to refinance its debt debts when the interest rate in Argentina were about 126%.

想像一下，當阿根廷的利率大約是126%時，阿根廷政府不得不以什麼樣的利率來為其債務再融資。

This is when you know that the Argentinian government was in huge trouble and they have hundreds of billions of dollars of debt.

這時候你就知道阿根廷政府陷入了巨大的麻煩，而且他們有數千億美元的債務。

At this point, the Argentinian economy is entirely broken.

在這一點上，阿根廷經濟完全崩潰了。

They simply destroyed the entire economy.

Argentina over the last 50 to 70 years was one of the economies where the government intervened and provided a lot of benefits to its citizens.

在過去的50到70年裡，阿根廷是政府會幹預並為其公民提供許多福利的經濟體之一。

The government is taking care of the average citizen.

But look at what's happening to Argentina today.

Now, to understand what exactly is happening to the economy and how exactly to fix it, and

現在，要了解經濟到底發生了什麼事，以及該如何解決，

why Donald Trump decided to give $20 billion to Argentina, we have to understand how currencies work.

還有川普為什麼決定給阿根廷200億美元，我們必須先了解貨幣是如何運作的。

A currency is an artificially created commodity by the government to make it easier for business to trade, to make it easier for people to do business and buy stuff.

貨幣是政府人為創造的一種商品，用來讓企業更容易貿易，讓民眾更容易做生意和購物。

Because a currency is a medium of an exchange, the currency by itself does not have any intrinsic value like gold has, so its value is created through demand and supply.

因為貨幣是交換媒介，貨幣本身不像黃金那樣有內在價值，所以它的價值是透過供需創造的。

The central bank of the country has full control over the supply of this commodity.

該國的中央銀行對這種商品的供應擁有完全的控制權。

So the more it supplies the market with pesos, the less its value is going to be.

所以，央行向市場供應越多的披索，它的價值就會越低。

The more there is demand for the peso and less the supply for this currency, then the more valuable the currency is going to become.

如果披索的需求增加，而這種貨幣的供應減少，那麼這種貨幣的價值就會越高。

One of the things that determines the value of the currency is how much the country is buying and how much the country is selling.

決定貨幣價值的一個因素是該國的購買量和銷售量。

Argentina buys a lot of things from outside, especially when it comes to cars and electronics.

阿根廷從國外購買很多東西，特別是汽車和電子產品。

So when Argentina buys cars from Germany or from the United States, they cannot pay the US Company with pesos.

所以，當阿根廷從德國或美國購買汽車時，他們不能用披索支付美國公司。

So the Argentinian people are going to buy US Dollars.

所以阿根廷人民會去購買美元。

So the demand for the dollars is rising, and

是以，對美元的需求正在上升，

the supply of the pesos in the market is rising, and

the demand for the pesos is falling, and that weakens the currency.

披索的需求正在下降，這削弱了貨幣。

On the other side, when Argentina is exporting products to the rest of the world, let's say corn, then that company or that country, let's say the United States, that is buying corn from Argentina, the US Company will have to pay pesos in the open markets, and

另一方面，當阿根廷向世界其他國家出口產品時，假設是玉米，那麼購買阿根廷玉米的公司或國家，假設是美國，美國公司將不得不支付披索，

that increases the demand for the pesos, which strengthen the pesos.

這增加了對披索的需求，從而加強了披索。

And Argentina is one of the richest countries in the world when it comes to land.

在土地方面，阿根廷是世界上最富有的國家之一。

And it has some of the best land in the world where it grows wheat, corn, soybeans and a lot more.

它擁有世界上最好的土地，在那裡種植小麥、玉米、大豆等等。

But when it comes to manufacturing stuff, Argentina is a very poor nation.

但在製造產品方面，阿根廷是一個非常貧窮的國家。

And up until recently, Argentina was actually running a trade deficit where Argentina was buying a lot more than it's selling to the rest of the world.

直到不久前，阿根廷實際上一直處於貿易逆差，阿根廷購買的商品遠多於賣給世界其他國家的商品。

So the demand for the Argentinian pesos over the years has been going down and down and down.

是以，多年來對阿根廷披索的需求一直在下降。

And where do you think the government has taken all of those money that it cannot possibly afford?

你認為政府從哪裡拿走了那些它根本負擔不起的錢？

It kept printing that money, which increased the supply of pesos in the market.

它一直在印製這些錢，這增加了市場上披索的供應。

Even though that Argentina is now producing far more than it's actually importing.

雖然現在阿根廷生產的遠比進口的還多。

It has another fundamental, serious problem.

它還有另一個根本的、嚴重的問題。

It has $305 billion worth of foreign debt.

And when Argentina has to pay interest on that debt, it has to pay in US dollars.

當阿根廷必須支付債務利息時，它必須以美元支付。

So even though that Argentina is making a lot of money by exporting things to the rest of the world, it has to pay the debt.

所以即使阿根廷透過向世界其他國家出口賺了很多錢，它還是得償還債務。

So it has to take all of these pesos and buy foreign currencies such as the US dollar.

所以它必須拿著所有這些披索去購買美元等外幣。

So it is increasing the supply of pesos in the market and decreasing the demand for the pesos in the market.

所以它增加了市場上的披索供應，並減少了市場對披索的需求。

So even though they fixed a trade balance, it still poses a threat.

所以即使他們解決了貿易平衡，這仍然構成威脅。

In fact, the current inflation is a government created inflation, because over the last 15 years, the government of Argentina has been running persistent deficit because the government of Argentina promised so many benefits to the average citizens.

事實上，目前的通膨是政府造成的，因為在過去 15 年裡，阿根廷政府一直存在持續的赤字，因為阿根廷政府向普通公民承諾了太多福利。

But the government is not making that much money from taxes.

Where else do you think the government is going to take that money from?

你覺得政府還能從哪裡弄到這些錢呢？

所以如果政府已經承諾了，但是

it's not earning that much money from taxes, then the government either going to borrow that money from somewhere or it's going to print that money.

它從稅收賺的錢不多，那麼政府就要嘛從別的地方借錢，要嘛就印錢。

Whenever you are printing money or even borrowing money, you're increasing the supply of pesos, which is devaluing the currency, which is why investors lost faith in the peso.

無論是印錢還是借錢，你都在增加披索的供應，這會讓貨幣貶值，這也是為什麼投資者對披索失去信心。

So imagine you are a business person in Argentina and you are making a lot of money.

所以想像一下，你是一位阿根廷的企業家，而且你賺了很多錢。

Are you going to sit on a hundred million pesos knowing that the Argentinian government every single year is printing so much money and devaluing the currency?

你會坐擁 1 億披索，而且知道阿根廷政府每年都在印那麼多錢，讓貨幣貶值嗎？

You are going to go and convert your pesos into dollars, euros, or any other currency that does not devalues this fast.

你會去把你的披索換成美元、歐元，或是任何不會這麼快貶值的貨幣。

Which is why the Argentinian government has put capital controls.

這就是為什麼阿根廷政府實施了資本管制。

So you cannot possibly exchange your 100 million pesos into the dollars, because the government is trying to create artificial demand for the pesos and prevent the people from buying the US Dollars.

所以你不可能把你的 1 億披索換成美元，因為政府正試圖創造披索的人工需求，並阻止民眾購買美元。

But it doesn't work, because as long as you know that you are losing money, you are going to find a way to do that.

但這沒用，因為只要你知道你在賠錢，你就會想辦法這麼做。

Which is why there is a huge black market in Argentina where people simply exchange their pesos back to the dollars for which is why the peso has been losing most of its value.

這就是為什麼阿根廷有一個龐大的黑市，人們只是把他們的披索換成美元，這就是為什麼披索損失了大部分價值。

Despite the fact that the government has been trying to control the currency, the current president of Argentina tried to peg the peso to the dollar.

儘管政府一直在試圖控制貨幣，阿根廷現任總統試圖將披索釘住美元。

So, because we cannot fix the problem because we have lost control of our currency, let's simply peg the peso to the dollar.

所以，因為我們無法解決問題，因為我們已經失去了對貨幣的控制，我們就乾脆把披索釘住美元吧。

However the dollar moves, the peso is going to move.

And because we know that the peso is overvalued, since we have created so much money and we have printed so much money over the last 20 to 30 years, let's devalue the peso by 2% monthly.

而且因為我們知道披索被高估了，因為我們在過去 20 到 30 年裡創造了這麼多錢，印了這麼多錢，所以我們每月讓披索貶值 2%。

So you are going to devalue it, but not instantly.

所以你會讓它貶值，但不是瞬間。

Because if we're going to instantly devalue the peso, there is going to be an economic shock.

因為如果我們要瞬間讓披索貶值，就會產生經濟衝擊。

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阿根廷經濟正在崩潰，其嚴重程度遠超您的預期 (Argentina’s Economy Is Collapsing, And Its Far Worse Than You Expect)

literally

entire

situation

crisis