Name: 百萬富翁為何準備購買這 5 種股票 (Why Millionaires Are Preparing to Buy These 5 Stocks)
Uploaded: 2025-09-02T18:22:35.000Z
Duration: 17 min 8 s

The US economy is on the brink of a recession.

The first quarter of 2025 was a negative GDP growth.

2025 年第一季度國內生產總值出現負增長。

情態副詞

And we only need two consecutive GDP growth in order to have a recession.

而我們只需要連續兩次 GDP 增長，就會出現經濟衰退。

The unemployment is rising, and the federal reserve is considering to lower interest rates to avoid the potential recession.

失業率正在上升，聯邦儲備局正在考慮降低利率，以避免潛在的經濟衰退。

On the other side, the stock market is growing faster than ever.

另一方面，股市的增長速度比以往任何時候都快。

Over the last 12 months alone, the S&P 500 has grown by about 17%.

僅在過去 12 個月中，標準普爾 500 指數就增長了約 17%。

That is double than the historical growth of about 8-10%.

這比歷史上約 8-10% 的增長率高出一倍。

And most of that growth was fueled by the AI investments.

而其中大部分增長是由人工智能投資推動的。

Companies are trying to take the best advantage out of AI, so they are massively investing billions of dollars into new projects.

各家公司都在努力發揮人工智能的最大優勢，是以它們正向新項目大規模投資數十億美元。

On the other side, investors are also trying to buy the stocks of the companies that will potentially take the best advantage out of AI.

另一方面，投資者也在試圖購買那些有可能從人工智能中獲得最大優勢的公司股票。

Everybody is looking at the AI as if it's the new internet, and nobody wants to miss this opportunity.

每個人都將人工智能視為新的互聯網，誰也不想錯過這個機會。

But a lot of people will say that the stock market does not always mirror the economy.

但很多人會說，股市並不總是反映經濟。

Because the economy is one thing, and the stock market is a completely different thing.

因為經濟是一回事，而股市則完全是另一回事。

While on one side it makes sense, the stock market always catches up with the economy.

一方面，這是有道理的，但股市總是跟不上經濟的發展。

At the end of the day, stock valuation should be backed by real earnings.

歸根結底，股票估值應以實際收益為支撐。

And if the economy is slowing down, then the earnings are going to slow down and you cannot possibly justify those high valuations.

如果經濟放緩，那麼盈利也會放緩，你就不可能證明這些高估值是合理的。

Which is why, if the economy is going to slow down, in the short run, the stock market might grow, but in the long run, it will turn into a bubble and will follow the economy and collapse.

這就是為什麼如果經濟增長放緩，短期內股市可能會增長，但從長遠來看，股市會變成保麗龍，跟著經濟一起崩潰。

So the real question is that, if the AI bubble is going to burst, which are the first stocks that you should absolutely buy to make sure that you will take the best advantage out of this new revolution that is happening right in front of us.

是以，真正的問題是，如果人工智能保麗龍即將破滅，你應該首先購買哪些股票，以確保你能從這場就在我們面前發生的新革命中獲得最大的收益。

But before we answer that question, we have to understand the difference between value stocks and the growth stocks.

但在回答這個問題之前，我們必須瞭解價值型股票和成長型股票的區別。

If you pick up any company out of the stock market, you will find out that it is either a matured business, which means that it has already been in the market long enough and has dominated its industry and it has built a very proven business model, it has constant streams of revenue, and no matter what happens, it will continue making that much money.

如果你從股票市場上挑選任何一家公司，你會發現它要麼是一家成熟的企業，這意味著它在市場上已經有足夠長的時間，並且已經在其行業中佔據了主導地位，它已經建立了一個非常成熟的商業模式，它有源源不斷的收入，無論發生什麼情況，它都會繼續賺那麼多錢。

On the other side, we don't expect these companies to grow exponentially because they have already matured.

另一方面，我們並不指望這些公司會呈指數級增長，因為它們已經成熟。

Think about companies such as apple or coca cola.

Just because there is going to be a stock market crush for example tomorrow, it does not mean that people will stop using iPhones.

比如說，明天股市會大跌，但這並不意味著人們會停止使用 iPhone。

The demand for iPhones is not going to go anywhere, people won't stop using app store.

對 iPhone 的需求不會消失，人們也不會停止使用應用程序商店。

So apple is not going to see much of its stock price to crush.

是以，蘋果的股價不會受到太大影響。

Just because the stock market is crushed, people won't stop drinking coca cola, which means that it's not going to impact much the earnings of coca cola, which means that its stock price won't see a significant decline.

人們不會因為股市下跌就不喝可口可樂，這意味著股市下跌不會對可口可樂的盈利造成太大影響，這意味著可口可樂的股價不會大幅下跌。

And that's why these companies usually have the standard PE ratio of their companies or their industries.

這就是為什麼這些公司的市盈率通常是其公司或行業的標準市盈率。

On the other side, we have the growth stocks.

另一方面，我們有成長型股票。

Now there is a huge expectation for these companies, and usually you see these companies not making a lot of money today, however, investors are overpaying for these stocks because they believe that this is the company that has a huge potential to 10x or 20x grow their earnings in the next 5 to 10 years for example.

現在，人們對這些公司抱有巨大的期望，通常你會看到這些公司今天並沒有賺到很多錢，但是，投資者卻為這些股票支付了過高的價格，因為他們相信，例如在未來 5 到 10 年內，這家公司的盈利有可能增長 10 倍或 20 倍。

And that's why when the stock market is growing, you see their stock prices grow dramatically, but at the same time, when the stock market is collapsing, you will see that those expectations evaporate and those stocks actually decline the most.

這就是為什麼當股市增長時，你會看到它們的股價大幅增長，但與此同時，當股市崩潰時，你會看到這些預期煙消雲散，這些股票實際上跌幅最大。

Palantir is not making much of the money today, however, investors have so much expectations company that they are willing to pay extra amounts of money for this stock because they expect that the entire pentagon will be run on Palantir, as if Palantir has won a contract for 100 billion dollars from the entire NATO.

Palantir 如今並沒有賺到多少錢，但是，投資者對公司抱有很大的期望，他們願意為這隻股票支付額外的金額，因為他們期望整個五角大樓都將由 Palantir 來管理，就好像 Palantir 贏得了整個北約的 1000 億美元的合同一樣。

That's why usually these companies have high PE ratio.

這就是為什麼這些公司的市盈率通常很高。

So the question is that which of these stocks will suffer the most during a financial crisis.

那麼問題來了，在金融危機中，哪種股票會遭受最大的損失呢？

To answer that question, we have to understand the basic concept of how the stock market works.

要回答這個問題，我們必須瞭解股市運行的基本概念。

Human emotion is the primary factor that drives the stock market in the short run.

人的情緒是短期內推動股市的主要因素。

When the stock market is growing tremendously, it is growing because there is so much optimism about the market.

當股市大幅上漲時，是因為人們對市場非常樂觀。

People will start thinking optimistically, they will grow their expectations, and because their expectations are so high about a particular company or an industry, they are willing to overpay.

人們會開始樂觀地思考，他們的期望值會越來越高，由於他們對某家公司或某個行業的期望值過高，他們願意付出過高的代價。

Because there is something called the fear of missing out.

因為有一種東西叫做 "害怕錯過"。

People are afraid that everybody else is making money, everything is growing, so let me jump in and buy.

人們害怕別人都在賺錢，一切都在增長，所以讓我跳進去買吧。

Now the best example I can give you is the 2016 or 2017 bitcoin growth.

現在我能舉出的最好例子就是 2016 年或 2017 年比特幣的增長。

The price of bitcoin was growing so much that back in the days, like most people had no idea what bitcoin is.

比特幣的價格增長如此之快，以至於當時大多數人都不知道比特幣是什麼。

Like literally you would see celebrities spending so much money buying bitcoin.

就像你會看到名人花大錢買比特幣一樣。

And then celebrities, they started suing the people who told them to buy bitcoin.

然後，名人們開始起訴那些讓他們買比特幣的人。

Because these people bought bitcoin not because they are like, oh, this technology is going to change the world, even though that this technology will potentially change the world in some time in the future, it needs time to develop.

因為這些人購買比特幣，並不是因為他們覺得 "哦，這項技術將改變世界"，儘管這項技術有可能在未來某個時候改變世界，但它需要時間來發展。

But those people purchased it because they had these high expectations.

但這些人之所以購買，是因為他們有很高的期望值。

And it happens in the market every single time.

Now Isaac Newton is potentially one of the smartest people that has ever lived in entire human history.

艾薩克-牛頓可能是人類歷史上最聰明的人之一。

But Isaac Newton at the same time was an investor.

但艾薩克-牛頓同時也是一位投資者。

So he comes across a company called South Sea and he buys a lot of shares of this company.

於是，他遇到了一家名為 South Sea 的公司，並買下了這家公司的大量股票。

Suddenly the price of South Sea grows dramatically and he is like, it's time to sell.

突然，南海的價格大幅上漲，他想，是時候賣掉了。

He sells his stocks, makes a lot of money and he is a very rich man right now.

他賣掉股票，賺了很多錢，現在是個非常富有的人。

However, as he watches the price of South Sea keeps growing dramatically because there are a lot of rumors that this company is going to dominate the entire industry and everybody is rushing to buy the stock of South Sea.

然而，隨著他的觀察，南海公司的價格不斷大幅上漲，因為有很多傳言說這家公司將主導整個行業，所有人都在搶購南海公司的股票。

So the stock keeps rising and rising and rising.

是以，股價不斷上漲，上漲，再上漲。

And Isaac Newton sitting there and he is like confused.

艾薩克-牛頓坐在那裡，一臉茫然。

So he takes pretty much most of his wealth or most of the money that he made from this deal prior to that and he buys the stocks of South Sea.

是以，他把自己的大部分財富或之前從這筆交易中賺到的大部分錢，都買下了南海公司的股票。

The price grows, grows and grows and then the bubble burst and then the stock price collapses and Isaac Newton loses everything that he invested in this company.

股價增長、增長、再增長，然後保麗龍破滅，股價崩盤，艾薩克-牛頓失去了他在這家公司投資的一切。

And Isaac Newton is one of the smartest people that has ever lived.

艾薩克-牛頓是有史以來最聰明的人之一。

So if Isaac Newton makes such a mistake and his primary investing decisions are emotional decisions, think about what is happening with the rest of the market.

是以，如果艾薩克-牛頓犯了這樣的錯誤，他的主要投資決策都是情緒化的決定，那麼想想市場上其他投資者的情況吧。

And even though that we are in 2025, the fundamentals of that haven't actually changed and most people in the market, even a lot of professional investors still base their decisions on their emotions.

儘管我們已經進入了 2025 年，但其基本面實際上並沒有改變，市場上的大多數人，甚至是很多專業投資者，仍然根據自己的情緒做出決定。

And that always turns into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

For example, when the stock market starts to collapse and the stock market is going down, people are afraid, their expectations suddenly vanish and they start selling their  When everybody is selling their stocks, there is more supply of that stock in the market and less demand.

例如，當股市開始崩潰，股市下跌時，人們會感到恐懼，他們的預期突然消失，開始拋售股票。

It turns into a self-fulfilling prophecy and the stock price goes down, which forces more people to sell their stocks and so on and so forth.

結果一語成讖，股價下跌，迫使更多的人拋售股票，如此循環往復。

When you understand that, that's when you can actually see what is happening with the growth stocks and value stocks.

當你明白了這一點，你就能真正瞭解成長型股票和價值型股票的情況。

Because there is so much high expectations about the growth stocks, the crush of the growth stocks is going to be significantly bigger than value stocks.

由於人們對成長股寄予厚望，是以成長股受到的擠壓將明顯大於價值股。

Because with the value stocks, everybody knows their intrinsic value.

因為對於價值型股票來說，每個人都知道它們的內在價值。

So their stock prices is being backed by their earnings.

是以，它們的股價是由盈利支撐的。

So it's not going to crush much because there is so much certainty about its valuation.

是以，它不會受到太大影響，因為它的估值非常確定。

And at the same time, when the market is growing tremendously, for example, over the last two and a half years, as this AI mania started, you don't see Coca-Cola stock growing tremendously as much as you see, for example, Palantir stock is growing.

與此同時，當市場大幅增長時，比如在過去兩年半里，當人工智能狂熱開始時，你不會看到可口可樂的股票大幅增長，就像你看到 Palantir 的股票在增長一樣。

Another thing to pay attention with the growth stocks is that there are a lot of speculators who are buying and selling the stock.

成長型股票需要注意的另一點是，有很多投機者在買賣股票。

Now, the speculators are not trying to make money in the long run, they are trying to make money in the short run.

現在，投機者並不是想賺長期的錢，而是想賺短期的錢。

So when you have a stock or a company that is on the way to dominate an industry, and we don't know whether that will happen or not, even if the chances are 70%, there is always a chance that the competitor will take the entire industry and will outperform them.

是以，當你有一隻股票或一家公司即將主宰一個行業時，我們不知道這是否會發生，即使概率是 70%，但競爭對手總有可能佔領整個行業，並超越他們。

And because their valuation isn't actually clear, speculators can speculate and buy and sell in the short run.

由於它們的估值並不明確，投機者可以在短期內進行投機和買賣。

But when the market is crushing, speculators get out of the market, sell their stocks, increase the supply of the stock in the market, which lead the stock price to collapse.

但當市場崩潰時，投機者會退出市場，拋售手中的股票，增加市場上的股票供應量，從而導致股價暴跌。

And that's why whenever you are trying to take advantage out of it and you are thinking which stocks are going to fold the most out of when there is a financial crisis or when there is a stock market crush, you will see that growth stocks will suffer the most.

這就是為什麼每當你想從中獲益，想知道在金融危機或股市崩盤時哪些股票會折損最大時，你會發現成長型股票的損失最大。

And these are the type of stocks that you should be paying a lot of attention to.

而這些股票正是你應該密切關注的類型。

And these are the stocks that if you buy when the entire market crushed, you will benefit the most when the market will grow again.

如果你在整個市場崩潰時買入這些股票，那麼當市場再次增長時，你將從中獲益最多。

Now Amazon today is the most successful e-commerce company in the world, and one of the companies that literally shaped the internet.

如今，亞馬遜是世界上最成功的電子商務公司，也是塑造互聯網的公司之一。

But in late 1990s, it was one out of many companies.

但在 20 世紀 90 年代末，它只是眾多公司中的一家。

The dotcom bubble burst and Amazon stock goes down by about 95%.

網絡保麗龍破滅，亞馬遜股價下跌約 95%。

Now back in the days, a lot of people would think that, well, why would you even buy Amazon?

過去，很多人會認為，為什麼要買亞馬遜？

But Amazon was a growth stock because everybody who knew how the internet works, understood that internet will dominate the world.

但亞馬遜是一隻成長股，因為每個瞭解互聯網運作方式的人都明白，互聯網將主宰世界。

And Amazon was in that position, which was building the essential services for Amazon to dominate the internet.

而亞馬遜就處於這樣的地位，它為亞馬遜主導互聯網建立了基本服務。

And today, Amazon is one of the most valuable companies in the world.

如今，亞馬遜已成為全球最有價值的公司之一。

When the AI bubble is going to burst, the question is, which are the top 3 stocks that everybody should be watching and buying when the bubble is going to burst.

當人工智能保麗龍破滅時，問題是，在保麗龍破滅時，每個人都應該關注和購買的前三大股票是哪些？

Because they have the best advantage or the best position to grow exponentially because of AI.

因為它們擁有最佳優勢或最佳位置，可以藉助人工智能實現指數級增長。

Now, the number one stock that I am very carefully watching is oracle.

現在，我正在密切關注的頭號股票是甲骨文。

Since the AI thing started, the price of oracle stock has grown by 300%.

自從人工智能事件開始以來，甲骨文股票的價格增長了 300%。

And it was one of the fastest growing stocks literally in the market.

它是市場上增長最快的股票之一。

For example, back in 2023 or the beginning of 2023, the PE ratio of oracle was 25, today it's 52.

例如，在 2023 年或 2023 年初，甲骨文公司的市盈率是 25，而現在是 52。

Now PE ratio is by far not a single indicator that you should be watching, but PE ratio is simply telling you or that growth in the PE ratio is that investors are overpaying for oracle because their expectations of this company is huge.

目前，市盈率還不是你應該關注的單一指標，但市盈率只是告訴你，或者說市盈率的增長說明投資者為甲骨文公司支付了過高的價格，因為他們對這家公司的期望值很高。

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百萬富翁為何準備購買這 5 種股票 (Why Millionaires Are Preparing to Buy These 5 Stocks)

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