Name: 中國經濟正在崩潰，其嚴重程度遠遠超出您的預期 (China's Economy Is Collapsing, And Its Far Worse Than You Expect)
Uploaded: 2025-08-11T18:16:27.000Z
Duration: 15 min

程度副詞

The Chinese economy is on the brink of catastrophe and Donald Trump just made it much worse.

中國經濟正處於災難的邊緣，而唐納德-特朗普卻使其雪上加霜。

情態副詞

The Chinese economy started to slow down since 2020 and they cannot possibly afford a trade war with the most powerful economy in the world and Donald Trump knows that.

中國經濟自 2020 年開始放緩，他們不可能承受得起與世界上最強大經濟體的貿易戰，唐納德-特朗普深知這一點。

He started the trade war with a baseline of 10 percent tariff and then increased it by another 10 percent and finally added an additional 34 percent.

他以 10% 的關稅為基線開始了貿易戰，然後又增加了 10%，最後又增加了 34%。

Beijing, which is the second most powerful economy in the world, cannot possibly just watch how it's getting humiliated, so they responded to Trump with a 34 percent tariff.

作為世界第二大經濟體，北京不可能眼睜睜地看著自己被羞辱，是以他們以 34% 的關稅迴應了特朗普。

Donald Trump took that response and added an additional 50 percent tariff on China.

唐納德-特朗普接受了這一回應，並對中國追加了 50% 的關稅。

So that raises a total amount of tariffs on China to 104 percent.

這樣一來，對中國徵收的關稅總額就達到了 104%。

So your next iPhone, which is most likely going to be produced in China, is going to double in prices within the next couple of weeks, probably the next couple of months.

是以，你的下一代 iPhone 很可能將在中國生產，其價格將在未來幾周內翻番，甚至可能在未來幾個月內翻番。

And a lot of things that you buy in the US are being manufactured in China.

你在美國買的很多東西都是在中國生產的。

The moment they enter the United States, the producer or the manufacturer or the importer of that product will have to pay 104 percent in tariff to the US government and that cost will be added to the consumers, which means that your next iPhone is going to cost at least 1800 dollars, if not 2000 dollars.

這些產品一進入美國，其生產商、製造商或進口商就必須向美國政府支付 104% 的關稅，而這一成本將加到消費者身上，這意味著你的下一部 iPhone 至少要花 1800 美元，甚至 2000 美元。

If China responds with the exact same measures and increases the tariffs on the United States to 104 percent, Donald Trump can use that as an excuse to further increase the tariffs on China to 200 percent, 300 percent.

如果中國以完全相同的措施做出迴應，將對美國的關稅提高到 104%，唐納德-特朗普就可以以此為藉口，進一步將對中國的關稅提高到 200%、300%。

And this can turn into an infinite loop where each side increases the tariff on the other side where tariffs are going to rise to 1000 percent, 2000 percent.

這可能會變成一個無限循環，每一方都會增加對另一方的關稅，關稅將上升到 1000%、2000%。

So your next iPhone isn't going to cost 2000 dollars but rather 10000 dollars.

是以，下一部 iPhone 的價格不會是 2000 美元，而是 10000 美元。

Maybe that is the response that Donald Trump wants to achieve so that Apple is going to find out that manufacturing iPhones in the US and selling them for 3000 dollars is much much profitable than getting them from China to the US and pay 1000 percent in tariffs.

也許這就是唐納德-特朗普想要達到的效果，這樣蘋果公司就會發現，在美國生產 iPhone 並以 3000 美元的價格出售，要比從中國運到美國並支付 1000% 的關稅有利得多。

So here in this video, let's find out how Donald Trump is about to destroy the Chinese economy and does China stands a chance to survive this catastrophe.

在這段視頻中，我們將瞭解唐納德-特朗普將如何摧毀中國經濟，以及中國是否有機會在這場災難中倖存下來。

Give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們進入正題。

China is an export-driven economy, which means that it exports much more than it imports and you can clearly see that in the data.

中國是一個出口導向型經濟體，這意味著中國的出口遠大於進口，從數據中可以清楚地看到這一點。

It exports around 3.5 trillion dollars worth of goods and it imports 2.7 trillion dollars worth of goods.

它出口了價值約 3.5 萬億美元的商品，進口了價值 2.7 萬億美元的商品。

And that leaves China with around 900 or 857 billion dollars worth of extra goods that it actually produced.

這樣一來，中國實際多生產的商品價值約為 9000 億或 8570 億美元。

And that means that over time, it can accumulate that money and invest it everywhere.

這意味著，隨著時間的推移，它可以積累這些資金，並將其投資到各個地方。

It can invest it in US government bonds, they can invest it in the European countries or maybe even within the entire China.

它可以投資於美國政府債券，也可以投資於歐洲國家，甚至可以投資於整個中國。

And that resulted in a massive economic growth over the last 30 to 40 years.

這導致了過去三四十年間的大規模經濟增長。

It went from one of the poorest countries back in 90s, 80s and 90s to the second world's largest economy and right now is competing with the United States.

它從上世紀 90、80 和 90 年代最貧窮的國家之一躍升為世界第二大經濟體，目前正在與美國競爭。

And that is all because it's an export-driven economy.

而這一切都是因為它是一個出口導向型經濟。

It builds everything, it manufactures everything, everything you want to be manufactured can easily be done in China.

中國建造一切，製造一切，你想要製造的一切都可以在中國輕鬆完成。

Even the most powerful company in the US is manufactures all of its iPhones in China.

即使是美國最強大的公司，其所有 iPhone 手機也都是在中國生產的。

It tried to diversify and go to Vietnam, India, but that is going to take years if not decades and it doesn't mean that they can do it as cost-effectively as they can do it in China.

它試圖多元化發展，進入越南和印度市場，但這需要幾年甚至幾十年的時間，而且這並不意味著他們能像在中國那樣做得經濟有效。

If you actually make much more money and you spend much less than you are actually earning, you will be left with an extra income that you can invest.

如果你賺的錢比實際收入多得多，而花的錢卻比實際收入少得多，那麼你就會有一筆額外的收入可以用來投資。

Let's say you are making a million dollars but you are spending 500 thousand dollars.

比方說，你賺了一百萬美元，但你花了五十萬美元。

Every single year you are saving 500 thousand dollars and over the course of 20 years, if you save and invest every single penny, you will be left with extra few million dollars and at the end of the tunnel, your net worth is going to exponentially grow by itself even if you are not going to invest anything.

每一年你都會存下 50 萬美元，在 20 年的時間裡，如果你把每一分錢都存起來並進行投資，你就會多出幾百萬美元，在隧道的盡頭，即使你不打算投資任何東西，你的淨資產也會呈指數級增長。

And that's what the United States want to fundamentally change.

而這正是美國想要從根本上改變的。

If we want to destroy China's strategy, then we need weak US dollar and a strong yuan.

如果我們想摧毀中國的戰略，那麼我們就需要弱勢美元和強勢人民幣。

Because the Chinese currency is much weaker than the dollar, the Chinese exports are going to be much more cheaper than the US exports.

由於中國貨幣比美元弱得多，中國出口商品將比美國出口商品便宜得多。

And that means that the US companies or the US products cannot possibly compete with Chinese products.

這意味著美國公司或美國產品不可能與中國產品競爭。

US costs cannot compete with Chinese costs.

美國的成本無法與中國的成本競爭。

And that's why over the last 20 to 30 years, every single time as the Chinese yuan gets stronger and stronger, the Chinese communist party purposely manipulated the currency in order to make sure that the currency stays weak in order to make sure that the exports keep boosting.

這就是為什麼在過去的二三十年裡，每當人民幣變得越來越堅挺時，中國共產黨都會故意操縱貨幣，以確保人民幣保持弱勢，從而確保出口持續增長。

Yes, that keeps your population slightly more poorer because imports are going to be much more expensive.

是的，這會讓你們的人口更加貧窮，因為進口產品會更加昂貴。

But the goal of the country, but the goal of China was in order to keep growing its economy because of its exports.

但中國的目標是通過出口保持經濟增長。

And those exports don't simply just go to the United States, but the entire world, European Union, Latin America, Africa, Asian countries.

這些出口產品不僅銷往美國，還銷往全世界，包括歐盟、拉丁美洲、非洲和亞洲國家。

Currencies are being traded in the market just like any other commodity.

貨幣與其他商品一樣在市場上交易。

The stronger is demand for a particular currency, the stronger it gets.

對某種貨幣的需求越強，它就越堅挺。

The weaker is demand for a particular currency, the weaker it gets.

對某種貨幣的需求越弱，它就越弱。

On the other side, you have the supply of that currency and the supply of that currency is mainly made by the central bank of that particular country.

另一方面是貨幣的供應，而貨幣的供應主要由特定國家的中央銀行決定。

And as more people around the world would want to buy your products and goods and services, the demand for your product, for your currency is going to increase, which is going to make it stronger.

隨著世界上越來越多的人想要購買你們的產品、商品和服務，對你們的產品和貨幣的需求就會增加，這將使你們的貨幣更加堅挺。

But a strong currency will make your products much more expensive.

但強勢貨幣會使你的產品更加昂貴。

So you can artificially manipulate your currency in such a way where you actually make and keep your currency weaker in relation to other countries.

是以，你可以人為地操縱你的貨幣，從而使你的貨幣相對於其他國家更加疲軟。

And that means that your exports will still remain price competitive and your economy keeps growing as the demand for your goods and services will stay high because they are much more cheaper than your competitors.

這意味著貴國的出口產品仍將保持價格競爭力，貴國的經濟將繼續增長，因為對貴國商品和服務的需求將保持高位，因為它們比競爭對手便宜得多。

And the United States cannot do that because the United States works in a free market, which means that the value of the dollar is going to be determined by the market and not by the US government.

美國不能這樣做，因為美國實行的是自由市場，這意味著美元的價值將由市場決定，而不是由美國政府決定。

And that is the goal of this trade war, to make sure that China keeps buying from the US as much as the US buying from China.

而這正是這場貿易戰的目的，即確保中國繼續從美國購買，就像美國從中國購買一樣多。

And secondly, prevent China from manipulating its currency.

And the Chinese, as Chinese yuan gets stronger, keep it that way so that American products are going to be much more price competitive compared to Chinese products.

隨著人民幣越來越堅挺，中國人也會保持這種狀態，這樣美國產品的價格競爭力就會比中國產品強得多。

But this is not the first time that the United States is following such a strategy.

但這並不是美國第一次採取這樣的戰略。

After world war 2, the US and Japan became very close allies and they reduced all tariffs.

第二次世界大戰後，美國和日本成為非常親密的盟友，兩國降低了所有關稅。

But because Japan was a much poorer country compared to the United States, Japan started massively producing everything and selling it in the United States.

但是，由於日本比美國貧窮得多，日本開始大規模生產一切產品並在美國銷售。

And as a result of that, the Japanese economy started growing tremendously and by 1980s or late 1980s, the gap between the US and Japan started to shrink and people started thinking that Japan is going to overtake the United States as the world's largest economy.

是以，日本經濟開始大幅增長，到 20 世紀 80 年代或 80 年代末，美國和日本之間的差距開始縮小，人們開始認為日本將超越美國，成為世界上最大的經濟體。

How do you think the United States was filled with Japanese cars?

你認為美國是如何充斥著日本汽車的？

Nissan, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Suzuki and a long list of other Japanese car manufacturers literally flooded the entire United States.

日產、豐田、三菱、鈴木和一長串其他日本汽車製造商簡直充斥了整個美國。

And American car companies couldn't possibly compete with Japanese because Japanese cars were simply much more cheaper.

美國汽車公司不可能與日本汽車公司競爭，因為日本汽車的價格要便宜得多。

The same thing goes with electronics, Sony, Toshiba, Canon, Casio flooded the American consumer markets and US companies started going out of business.

電子產品也是如此，索尼、東芝、佳能、卡西歐充斥美國消費市場，美國公司開始倒閉。

Ronald Reagan, who was the president of the United States back in the days, wanted to fix the problem by weakening the dollar and strengthening foreign currencies, especially the Japanese Yuan.

當年的美國總統羅納德-里根希望通過削弱美元和加強外幣，尤其是人民幣來解決問題。

And that means that everybody suddenly is going to massively sell the US dollars, the local currencies.

這意味著每個人都會突然大量拋售美元和當地貨幣。

And as a result of that, the dollar was devalued by 51% or the Japanese Yuan got stronger by 51%.

其結果是，美元貶值了 51%，人民幣升值了 51%。

Suddenly, the Japanese products that used to come from Japan into the US became 50% more expensive.

突然之間，過去從日本運到美國的日本產品價格提高了 50%。

And that meant that American consumers stopped buying expensive Japanese products and shifted and started buying cheaper American alternatives.

這意味著美國消費者不再購買昂貴的日本產品，轉而開始購買更便宜的美國替代品。

And that boosted American manufacturing, that boosted American companies.

這推動了美國製造業的發展，促進了美國公司的發展。

On the other side, it drove out of business a lot of Japanese companies.

另一方面，它也迫使許多日本公司倒閉。

Prior to 1985, when that agreement took place, the Japanese economy grew so fast that it almost overtook the US economy.

在 1985 年簽訂該協議之前，日本經濟增長迅速，幾乎超過了美國經濟。

When everybody starts making a lot of money, they start buying real estate.

當每個人都開始賺大錢時，他們就開始購買房地產。

And the Japanese real estate market turned into a bubble.

日本的房地產市場變成了保麗龍。

The imperial palace in Tokyo, which is literally a tiny piece of land, got much more expensive than the entire land that was in the entire California, which is the wealthiest state in the entire United States.

東京的皇宮不過是一小塊土地，卻比美國最富裕的加利福尼亞州的全部土地還要昂貴。

And since Japanese products got much more expensive in the US and they started losing market share, prices started to go down.

由於日本產品在美國的價格變得更加昂貴，他們開始失去市場份額，是以價格開始下降。

And that real estate bubble burst and it collapsed the entire economy.

房地產保麗龍破滅後，整個經濟都崩潰了。

And since 1995, when the bubble burst, the Japanese economy hasn't recovered yet.

自 1995 年保麗龍破滅以來，日本經濟至今仍未復甦。

Their GDP back in 1996 was 5.2 trillion dollars, today it's 4.2 trillion dollars.

1996 年，他們的國內生產總值為 5.2 萬億美元，今天則為 4.2 萬億美元。

First they called it the lost decade, but it turned into the lost 3 decades.

起初他們稱之為 "失去的十年"，後來變成了 "失去的三十年"。

So if China agrees to devalue its currency as the United States wants it, it could turn into a Japan 2.0 where the Chinese economy is going to stagnate.

是以，如果中國同意按照美國的要求讓其貨幣貶值，那麼它可能會變成日本 2.0，中國經濟將停滯不前。

Because the deflationary mindset is much more dangerous than the inflationary mindset.

因為通貨緊縮思維比通貨膨脹思維更危險。

So the question is that, will China end up like Japan?

那麼問題來了，中國會像日本一樣完蛋嗎？

Today Chinese companies have flooded the entire world.

In fact, most of Chinese car companies are not allowed to sell their cars in the United States and they have already a 100% tariff way before 2020 because they manufacture their cars at a fraction of the price that the US cars are manufacturing.

事實上，大多數中國汽車公司都不允許在美國銷售汽車，而且在 2020 年之前，他們就已經被徵收了 100%的關稅，因為他們生產汽車的價格只是美國汽車生產價格的一小部分。

And if all these tariffs will be eliminated, the entire US market will be flooded with cheap electrical car companies and that will take Tesla out of business, that will drive Chrysler out of business, that will drive Chevy out of business.

如果取消所有這些關稅，整個美國市場將充斥著廉價的電動汽車公司，這將使特斯拉倒閉，克萊斯勒倒閉，雪佛蘭倒閉。

The GDP growth of the Chinese economy has already been going down.

中國經濟的 GDP 增長率已經在下降。

The only year that was great for China recently was 2020 and that's 2021 I would say and that's because it recovered from covid.

對中國來說，最近唯一好的一年是 2020 年，我想說的是 2021 年，那是因為中國從科維德中恢復過來了。

But since then, the expectation went anything from 5% and is going down to around 3%.

但此後，預期從 5%下降到 3%左右。

But with this trade war, the GDP growth could actually be much lower than that, they can go to 2%, 1% or maybe 0% and if the bubble bursts, it could actually turn the entire situation into a deflationary mindset.

但在貿易戰的影響下，GDP 增長率實際上可能會比這低得多，可能會降到 2%、1%，甚至 0%，如果保麗龍破裂，實際上就會使整個形勢變成通貨緊縮的心態。

And what is more astonishing is that, like back in the days when Japan turned into a real estate bubble, China has also a real estate bubble that is about to burst and it could be much worse than the Japanese real estate bubble.

更令人吃驚的是，就像當年日本的房地產保麗龍一樣，中國的房地產保麗龍也即將破滅，而且可能比日本的房地產保麗龍更嚴重。

China right now is sitting on anything between 65 to 80 million empty houses all across China.

目前，中國全國有 6500 萬至 8000 萬套空置房。

So if the Chinese economy starts to massively slow down, that can push more people to sell their houses.

是以，如果中國經濟開始大幅放緩，就會促使更多的人賣房。

House prices have already been going down for the last couple of years and if they go down much faster than that, and the only reason they would go that much is because people will start massively selling their houses.

過去幾年來，房價一直在下跌，如果房價下跌的速度比這更快，而房價下跌這麼快的唯一原因就是人們會開始大量拋售自己的房子。

But still, the economy is still stable to a certain extent.

不過，經濟在一定程度上還是比較穩定的。

But if the Chinese yuan is going to be much more overvalued compared to the dollar and the Chinese exports start to slow down and that will drive the economy into an economic crisis, that could push people to start massively selling their houses and that could turn into Japan 2.0.

但是，如果人民幣相對於美元的價值被高估很多，中國出口開始放緩，這將使經濟陷入經濟危機，這可能會促使人們開始大規模賣房，這可能會變成日本 2.0。

That's probably the most dangerous thing that could happen to the Chinese economy because if it turns into Japan 2.0, we are looking into the next 10, 20, maybe 30 years of stagnation.

這可能是中國經濟可能發生的最危險的事情，因為如果它變成了日本 2.0，那麼我們將面臨未來 10 年、20 年，甚至 30 年的停滯。

But the worst case scenario is if the United States and the European Union are going to come to an agreement and establish a free trade agreement where there are not going to be any kind of tariffs between the European Union and the United States.

但最壞的情況是，如果美國和歐盟達成協議，建立自由貿易協定，歐盟和美國之間不再徵收任何關稅。

That is a real possibility because before Trump came into the office, there were a lot of tariffs that the European Union had.

這種可能性確實存在，因為在特朗普上任之前，歐盟已經徵收了大量關稅。

And if Trump can negotiate something with the EU where there are zero tariffs and both of these countries would put tariffs into China, that could eliminate the entire Chinese market.

如果特朗普能與歐盟進行零關稅的談判，而這兩個國家都對中國加徵關稅，那麼整個中國市場就會消失。

And that's because the United States on one side and the entire European Union represents something around 30 or maybe more than that of the Chinese exports.

這是因為美國和整個歐盟約佔中國出口的 30%，甚至更多。

There is nobody on earth that can replace the United States and the European Union for China.

對於中國來說，世界上沒有任何人可以取代美國和歐盟。

Yes, China trades with the rest of Asia, China trades with Africa, Middle East and Latin America but the United States is first of all the world's largest consumer market and the European Union is the second world's largest consumer market.

是的，中國與亞洲其他國家有貿易往來，中國與非洲、中東和拉丁美洲也有貿易往來，但美國首先是世界最大的消費市場，歐盟是世界第二大消費市場。

So these are the two markets where you sell most of your products.

是以，這兩個市場是您銷售產品最多的地方。

If you lose them, you are suddenly losing hundreds of billions, probably almost a trillion dollars worth of trade and you will no longer run a trade surplus just like you did over the last 40 years and you will not have all of that extra money in order to invest in yourself and invest in new projects that will actually get you such a high interest rate.

如果你失去了它們，你就會突然失去數千億美元，可能是價值近萬億美元的貿易，你將不再像過去 40 年那樣有貿易順差，你將沒有多餘的錢來投資自己和投資新項目，而這些項目實際上會給你帶來如此高的利息。