Name: 英國的未來比 1929 年大蕭條更糟糕，將持續幾十年 (What’s Coming For UK is Worse Than 1929 Depression, It Will Last For Decades)
Uploaded: 2025-08-07T18:24:53.000Z
Duration: 16 min 33 s

過去簡單式

The United States and the United Kingdom just signed a trade deal and it's a complete disaster for the British economy.

美國和英國剛剛簽署了一項貿易協議，這對英國經濟來說完全是一場災難。

動名詞

The British economy has been stagnating for the last 18 years, the cost of living is out of hands and millionaires leaving the United Kingdom in unprecedented level and the British economy is already suffering.

在過去的 18 年裡，英國經濟一直停滯不前，生活成本失控，百萬富翁以前所未有的速度離開英國，英國經濟已然陷入困境。

未來簡單式

And this trade deal is a complete humiliation for the entire United Kingdom and it's going to send the UK into a complete disaster, maybe it will stagnate for another 18 years.

而這份貿易協議完全是對整個英國的羞辱，它將使英國陷入一場徹底的災難，也許英國將再停滯 18 年。

So here in this video, I want to explain why this trade deal is a complete disaster for the British economy, what exactly this trade deal is and how will it will impact the entire British economy.

是以，在這段視頻中，我想解釋為什麼這項貿易協議對英國經濟來說是一場徹頭徹尾的災難，這項貿易協議到底是什麼，以及它將如何影響整個英國經濟。

If you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

如果您準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們開始吧。

If you look at the trading partners of the United States, you see a problem with the There is no problem with the United Kingdom because the United Kingdom buys from the United States as much as it sells to the United States.

如果你看看美國的貿易伙伴，你就會發現與英國之間有問題。 與英國之間沒有問題，因為英國從美國買的東西和賣給美國的東西一樣多。

So there is literally no any kind of trade deficit between the UK and the US.

是以，英國和美國之間根本不存在任何形式的貿易逆差。

Maybe some years there is a small tiny trade deficit, but it's absolutely nothing and it's absolutely normal between the two countries.

也許有些年份會出現微小的貿易逆差，但這絕對不算什麼，兩國之間的貿易逆差也絕對正常。

So if you want to solve your trade deficit, you clearly solve it with Canada, Mexico, China, but not with the United Kingdom that has been doing it fairly with the United States.

是以，如果你想解決貿易赤字問題，你顯然可以與加拿大、墨西哥和中國一起解決，但不能與一直與美國公平競爭的英國一起解決。

Last year, the United Kingdom exported to the United States around 60 billion dollars worth of goods.

去年，英國向美國出口了價值約 600 億美元的商品。

On the other side, they imported from the United States around 57 billion dollars worth of goods.

另一方面，他們從美國進口了價值約 570 億美元的商品。

So there is a trade deficit of around 2 billion dollars.

是以，貿易赤字約為 20 億美元。

And 2 billion dollars is frankly speaking is nothing because we are talking about hundreds of billions of dollars.

坦率地說，20 億美元不算什麼，因為我們談論的是數千億美元。

Sometimes the United States buys from the UK a bit more, other years the UK buys from the United States a bit more.

有時美國從英國買的東西多一些，有時英國從美國買的東西多一些。

So that number fluctuates year by year and that's absolutely normal.

是以，這個數字每年都在波動，這絕對是正常的。

When there is a consistent trade deficit of hundreds of billions of dollars, such as the case with China, I see a problem over here, but not here.

當出現持續數千億美元的貿易逆差時，比如與中國的貿易逆差，我認為這裡有問題，但不是這裡。

Basically what happened, you can say that Donald Trump created a problem out of thin air that did not exist at all, put the British economy in a very vulnerable situation and then signed with them a trade deal that is very bad for the British economy.

基本上可以說，唐納德-特朗普憑空製造了一個根本不存在的問題，將英國經濟置於非常脆弱的境地，然後與他們簽署了一份對英國經濟非常不利的貿易協議。

Now some people might say that, well, the UK sells to the US much more services than the US sells to the UK.

也許有人會說，英國賣給美國的服務比美國賣給英國的多得多。

If you look at the numbers, in 2023, the UK exported 118 billion dollars worth of services to the United States.

從數字上看，2023 年，英國向美國出口了價值 1180 億美元的服務。

On the other side, they imported around 54 billion dollars.

另一方面，他們進口了約 540 億美元。

I got you, I told you, there must be something, but you know what?

我抓住你了，我告訴過你，肯定有什麼，但你知道嗎？

If you have been listening very carefully to Donald Trump, he made it clear, he is not talking about services.

如果你仔細聽唐納德-特朗普的講話，他說得很清楚，他說的不是服務。

His entire argument about the trade deficit that the United States has with the rest of the world is about physical products and not services.

他關於美國與世界其他國家存在貿易逆差的全部論點都是關於實物產品，而不是服務。

And if you listen to him, he talked about that consistently.

如果你聽他說，他一直在談論這個問題。

Because if you actually take a look at the services, then the entire argument that Donald Trump is making makes absolutely no sense.

因為如果你真正瞭解了這些服務，那麼唐納德-特朗普的整個論點就完全說不通了。

Last year, the United States exported around a trillion dollars worth of services, however, it imported around 750 billion dollars worth of services.

去年，美國出口了價值約一萬億美元的服務，但進口了價值約 7500 億美元的服務。

So the United States is actually running a huge surplus when it comes to services.

是以，在服務方面，美國實際上有巨大的盈餘。

是以，不存在任何形式的赤字。

And that's why you never heard Donald Trump talking about the surplus that the United States has with the rest of the world when it comes to services.

這就是為什麼你從未聽到唐納德-特朗普談論美國與世界其他國家在服務方面的順差。

The entire British economy is based on services and there isn't much things that the United Kingdom is physically producing.

整個英國經濟都建立在服務業的基礎上，英國實際生產的東西並不多。

That's why they are more focused on exporting services, just like the United States is focused on services.

這就是為什麼他們更注重出口服務業，就像美國注重服務業一樣。

But because the United States is much bigger than the United Kingdom, it got a population that is like 5-7 times bigger than the United Kingdom, it is physically and geographically much bigger, they can produce cars, the United States can produce a lot of things.

但是，由於美國比英國大得多，人口是英國的 5-7 倍，物理和地理面積也大得多，他們可以生產汽車，美國可以生產很多東西。

Well, the United Kingdom cannot afford that, especially in this age when we have competition from China and Southeast Asia, where they can manufacture those things at a fraction of the price.

英國承受不起這樣的代價，尤其是在這個時代，我們有來自中國和東南亞的競爭者，他們能以極低的價格製造這些東西。

So I would assume that this was not part of the negotiation with the United States, but I guess they used it against the United Kingdom.

是以，我認為這不是與美國談判的一部分，但我猜他們用它來對付英國。

They said that maybe if you guys talk too much and you don't sign this agreement that is favorable to the United States, then we're going to impose tariffs on the British services.

他們說，如果你們說得太多，不簽署這項對美國有利的協議，我們就會對英國的服務徵收關稅。

And that would have actually pushed a lot of British banks, a lot of British insurance companies and auditing companies into a complete disaster.

這實際上會把很多英國銀行、很多英國保險公司和審計公司推向一場徹底的災難。

So what exactly is this deal that the UK and the US signed?

那麼，英國和美國簽署的協議到底是什麼呢？

Now first of all, the 10% tariffs on all British goods are staying.

首先，對所有英國商品徵收 10%關稅的政策不會改變。

So there is a 10% baseline tariff that the United States imposed and it's not going anywhere and the United Kingdom is going to pay that 10% tariff if it exports anything to the United States.

是以，美國徵收 10%的基準關稅，而且不會改變，英國如果向美國出口任何產品，都要支付這 10%的關稅。

So part of me does not understand what exactly has happened.

所以，我不明白到底發生了什麼。

There was no trade imbalance between the two countries and yet the United Kingdom still has to pay the 10% tariff.

兩國之間並不存在貿易不平衡，但英國仍需支付 10%的關稅。

But will the United States pay a 10% tariff by exporting their products to the United Kingdom?

但是，美國向英國出口產品，是否要支付 10%的關稅呢？

Who do you think this deal is benefiting?

Because if you look at the rest of the deal, you will be shocked how bad this deal is for the United Kingdom and how good this deal is for the United States.

因為如果你看看協議的其他部分，你就會震驚地發現，這項協議對英國是多麼糟糕，而對美國則是多麼有利。

The only good news is that they brought the tariffs on cars to around 10% on 100,000 cars that will be exported from the United Kingdom into the United States.

唯一的好消息是，他們將從英國出口到美國的 10 萬輛汽車的關稅降至 10%左右。

So first of all, there was a 2.5% tariff before Trump took in office.

是以，首先，在特朗普上臺之前，就有 2.5% 的關稅。

Trump raised that tariff to 27.5% and then in the negotiations, he brought it down to 10%.

特朗普將關稅提高到 27.5%，然後在談判中將關稅降至 10%。

That is a complete disaster for the entire auto industry for the United Kingdom.

這對英國整個汽車工業來說，簡直就是一場災難。

Because now those Range Rovers, those Jaguars will be taxed at least 10%.

因為現在那些路虎攬勝、捷豹將被徵收至少 10%的稅。

So if the United Kingdom will import or export more than 100,000 cars to the United States, guess what?

是以，如果英國將向美國進口或出口超過 10 萬輛汽車，你猜怎麼著？

They will pay a 27.5% tariff on every single car that will enter the United States.

他們將為每一輛進入美國的汽車支付 27.5% 的關稅。

And how many cars did the UK export to the United States?

So the first 100,000 cars will be taxed at 10%.

是以，前 10 萬輛汽車的稅率為 10%。

The other 40,000 cars will be taxed at around 27.5%.

其他 40,000 輛汽車的稅率約為 27.5%。

And that limits the entire auto industry of the UK.

這限制了英國整個汽車工業的發展。

Because if they start producing much more cars, they will have to increase their prices by at least 27.5%.

因為如果他們開始生產更多的汽車，就必須把價格至少提高 27.5%。

Or they will come up with a completely different strategy.

否則，他們就會想出完全不同的策略。

And that strategy could be, why not simply move manufacturing outside the United Kingdom to the United States?

這個戰略可以是，為什麼不乾脆把英國以外的製造業轉移到美國呢？

At least for the cars that will be selling in the United States.

First of all, we can produce as many cars as we want.

首先，我們想生產多少汽車就生產多少汽車。

Secondly, we will also avoid the 10% tariff that everybody has to pay, including the United Kingdom.

其次，我們還將避免包括英國在內的所有人都必須支付的 10%關稅。

So don't be surprised if Jaguar and Range Rover will shift manufacturing.

是以，如果捷豹和路虎攬勝轉移生產，請不要感到驚訝。

And that means that jobs will go out of the United Kingdom.

這意味著工作機會將離開英國。

That means that economic activity gets out of the United Kingdom.

這意味著經濟活動走出了英國。

And that means economic stagnation for the United Kingdom.

And that also means that less taxes will be flowing to the British budget.

這也意味著流向英國預算的稅收將減少。

Suppose the United Kingdom will produce steel and aluminium and they can export it to the United States at 0% tariff.

假設英國將生產鋼鐵和鋁，並可以 0% 的關稅出口到美國。

This is supposed to be the golden crown of this deal for the United Kingdom.

對英國來說，這應該是這筆交易的金冠。

How much steel and aluminium does the United Kingdom produces?

The entire steel and aluminium industry of the United Kingdom is collapsing and it's barely surviving.

英國的整個鋼鐵和鋁業正在崩潰，勉強苟延殘喘。

This zero tariff rate between the two countries applies to both countries.

兩國之間的零關稅適用於兩個國家。

Now, the United States right now has the capacity to boost its steel and aluminium industry, which means that they will start selling massively steel and aluminium to the United Kingdom.

現在，美國有能力促進其鋼鐵和鋁工業的發展，這意味著他們將開始向英國大量出售鋼鐵和鋁。

And that means that the UK will depend on the United States for steel and aluminium and the US steel and aluminium companies will pay 0% in tariff by exporting that to the United Kingdom.

這意味著英國的鋼鐵和鋁將依賴於美國，而美國的鋼鐵和鋁公司向英國出口鋼鐵和鋁將支付 0% 的關稅。

Now, do you think the United Kingdom will solve its problem with the steel and aluminium industry?

現在，你認為英國會解決鋼鐵和鋁業的問題嗎？

Well, absolutely not, because they have much bigger problems than the steel and aluminium industry.

絕對不行，因為他們有比鋼鐵和鋁業更大的問題。

So, the steel and aluminium industry in the UK is going to entirely disappear over the next 3 to 5 years.

是以，在未來 3 到 5 年內，英國的鋼鐵和鋁業將完全消失。

It was already almost non-existing and now it will simply disappear and the United Kingdom will just more depend on the United States.

它已經幾乎不存在了，現在它將消失，英國將更加依賴美國。

字幕列表影片播放

英國的未來比 1929 年大蕭條更糟糕，將持續幾十年 (What’s Coming For UK is Worse Than 1929 Depression, It Will Last For Decades)

literally

entire

absolutely

tough