Name: 美聯儲剛剛發出了一個強有力的資訊 (Federal Reserve Just Sent a Powerful Message)
Uploaded: 2025-08-01T18:04:02.000Z
Duration: 15 min 38 s

程度副詞

The federal reserve just sent a very weird message.

美聯儲剛剛發出了一個非常奇怪的資訊。

On one side, the fed said that the US economy is doing really great, unemployment is very low and it seems like the US economy is in a very good position.

一方面，美聯儲表示，美國經濟表現非常好，失業率非常低，美國經濟似乎處於非常有利的位置。

On the other side, the fed said that we are not going to lower down interest rates.

另一方面，美聯儲表示，我們不會降低利率。

And that actually raises a lot of questions.

Does the chairman of the fed hate Donald Trump so much that he does not want to lower down interest rates when he is president?

難道美聯儲主席如此痛恨唐納德-特朗普，以至於不想在他當總統時降低利率？

Everybody at this point wants lower interest rates.

此時此刻，每個人都希望降低利率。

For the last 3 years, interest rates were extremely high and that forced mortgage rates also to be really high.

過去 3 年，利率極高，這迫使抵押貸款利率也非常高。

So a lot of people cannot possibly afford a house.

Which is why everybody is simply watching the chairman of the fed and asking him, when exactly are you going to lower down interest rates, so that finally we can go and buy a house, so that finally we can actually have a roof over our heads.

這就是為什麼每個人都在盯著美聯儲主席，問他，你到底什麼時候才能降低利率，讓我們終於可以去買房子，讓我們終於可以真正有房住。

So let's figure out, why did the fed kept interest rates unchanged and when exactly the fed is going to lower down interest rates.

那麼，讓我們來弄清楚，美聯儲為什麼要維持利率不變，美聯儲究竟什麼時候會降息。

If you look at the US economy, it is doing far better than any other major economy.

縱觀美國經濟，其表現遠遠好於其他主要經濟體。

Yes, there was a negative GDP quarter back in the first quarter of 2025, but it quickly rose.

沒錯，2025 年第一季度的 GDP 曾出現過負增長，但很快就回升了。

If you compare the US GDP growth, for example, compared to the European Union, suddenly you see a very clear difference.

例如，如果將美國的國內生產總值增長與歐盟相比，你會突然發現兩者之間存在著非常明顯的差異。

That the US economy is growing and the European economy is barely growing.

美國經濟在增長，而歐洲經濟幾乎沒有增長。

If the European economies are going to hit a 2% GDP growth rate this year, it will be fantastic for them.

如果歐洲經濟今年的 GDP 增長率能達到 2%，那對他們來說將是一件好事。

On the other side, the United States is looking at 3% GDP growth.

另一方面，美國的國內生產總值將增長 3%。

If you compare that to the United Kingdom, the exact same story repeats over here.

與英國相比，這裡的情況完全一樣。

If the UK will grow by 2%, I would say that the UK is doing a fantastic job, but I don't think that is happening.

如果英國的經濟增長率能達到 2%，我會說英國做得非常出色，但我認為這並沒有發生。

So given the fact that the US has such a strong economy, why didn't it lower down interest rates, while the rest of the countries, such as the European Union and the United Kingdom already have lowered down interest rates.

那麼，既然美國經濟如此強勁，為什麼不降低利率，而其他國家，如歐盟和英國已經降低了利率呢？

What exactly is wrong with the fed reserve?

And that's because the United States is preparing itself for another major crisis.

這是因為美國正在為另一場重大危機做準備。

In fact, I would say that the federal reserve is preparing the US economy for another major crisis.

事實上，我認為美聯儲正在為美國經濟的另一場重大危機做準備。

The nature of the economies is that they go through cycles, and if you think that another crisis is not going to happen, then you are delusional because the economy consistently goes through periods of high growth and then depressions or recessions or major financial crises.

經濟的本質是循環往復，如果你認為不會發生另一場危機，那你就是在痴心妄想，因為經濟總是會經歷高速增長期，然後是蕭條期、衰退期或重大金融危機。

That is simply the nature of the economy.

So whenever you are going through a crisis, yes, you can borrow a lot of money.

是以，每當你遇到危機時，是的，你可以借到很多錢。

But when you are going through very hard or good times, I would say, it is time to prepare the US economy for another crisis.

但是，當你正在經歷非常艱難或順境時，我要說，現在是時候讓美國經濟為另一場危機做好準備了。

And that's exactly what the chairman of the fed said.

The debt to GDP ratio is already much higher than it was during the peak of world war 2.

債務與國內生產總值的比率已經遠遠高於第二次世界大戰高峰時期。

When world war 2 was over, the debt to GDP ratio was 106%.

第二次世界大戰結束時，債務與國內生產總值的比率為 106%。

And back in the days, we did not have intragovernmental debt.

在過去，我們沒有政府內部債務。

If you compare this number to today, and you also consider intragovernmental debt, then it is going to be 115%.

如果將這一數字與今天的數字進行比較，同時考慮到政府內部債務，那麼這一數字將達到 115%。

Which means that the United States has accumulated more debt during peacetime than during the greatest crisis in the history of the world.

這意味著，美國在和平時期積累的債務比世界歷史上最嚴重的危機時期還要多。

The second problem is, of course, the balance sheet of the fed, and I have talked about this multiple times in previous videos.

第二個問題當然是美聯儲的資產負債表，我在以前的視頻中多次談到過這個問題。

What I want you to pay attention over here is that, since the creation of the fed in 1913 until 2009, the balance sheet of the fed was at 900 billion dollars.

我想讓你們注意的是，自美聯儲於1913年成立至2009年，美聯儲的資產負債表為9000億美元。

That means that much assets the federal reserve has purchased from their economy or from the government of the United States to issue that many dollars.

這意味著美聯儲從本國經濟或美國政府購買了這麼多資產，才能發行這麼多美元。

Since then, its balance sheet has skyrocketed from 900 billion dollars.

此後，其資產負債表從 9000 億美元猛增。

At its peak, it was 9 trillion dollars, currently, it stands at 6.7 trillion dollars.

最高峰時達到 9 萬億美元，目前為 6.7 萬億美元。

So with these circumstances, if we are going to have another major crisis, then the entire bond market is going to collapse.

是以，在這種情況下，如果我們再次發生重大危機，那麼整個債券市場就會崩潰。

What you need to understand is that the bond market is the foundation of the US economy.

你需要明白的是，債券市場是美國經濟的基礎。

If it cracks down, the entire US economy is going to go into a 1929 style depression.

如果它鎮壓下去，整個美國經濟將陷入 1929 年式的大蕭條。

Because this time, the economy is much bigger and much deeper integrated into the global economy, so if the bond market collapses, its not just the US economy that will collapse but the entire global economy.

因為這次的經濟規模更大，融入全球經濟的程度更深，所以如果債券市場崩潰，崩潰的將不僅僅是美國經濟，而是整個全球經濟。

But if another crisis is going to happen, with this kind of debt to GDP ratio and this kind of balance sheet, the federal reserve no longer can intervene and save the economy.

但是，如果再次發生危機，以這樣的債務與 GDP 比率和這樣的資產負債表，美聯儲再也無法干預和拯救經濟了。

So while we are during the good times, it is important for the federal reserve to lower down that balance sheet, prepare the US economy for another major crisis.

是以，在我們處於順境的時候，美聯儲必須降低資產負債表，為美國經濟應對另一場重大危機做好準備。

If we are going to get into another recession in a year or two or three from now, we are ready.

如果我們在一兩年或三兩年後再次陷入衰退，我們已經做好了準備。

If there is going to be another pandemic, the United States should be ready.

如果再次發生大流行病，美國應該做好準備。

With this kind of balance sheet, if its going to rise dramatically again during another crisis, house prices are going to explode.

有了這樣的資產負債表，如果在另一場危機中再次出現大幅上漲，房價就會爆炸性增長。

If you think that buying a house now is expensive, imagine what happens when we are going to explode this balance sheet yet again.

如果你覺得現在買房很貴，那麼想象一下當我們的資產負債表再次爆炸時會發生什麼。

So the real question is not, how the federal reserve is preparing the US economy for another major crash.

是以，真正的問題並不在於美聯儲如何為美國經濟的再次大崩潰做好準備。

Now, if you look at the economy, it works in cycles.

現在，如果你看看經濟，它是按週期運行的。

Back in the days when we did not have quantitative easing, quantitative easing is the federal and mortgage-backed securities.

在我們沒有量化寬鬆政策的年代，量化寬鬆政策就是聯邦證券和抵押貸款支持證券。

During the days before the 2008 financial crisis, the federal reserve used to manage the economy and the dollar through interest rates.

在 2008 年金融危機之前，美聯儲曾通過利率來管理經濟和美元。

But since 2008, when we are going through any kind of a crisis, the federal reserve steps in and starts buying a lot of treasury bills from the government to help the government of the United States to borrow a lot of money at very low interest rates to stimulate the demand within the economy.

但自 2008 年以來，當我們經歷任何形式的危機時，美聯儲就會介入，開始從政府手中購買大量國庫券，幫助美國政府以極低的利率借入大量資金，以刺激經濟內部的需求。

It also buys a lot of mortgage-backed securities.

它還購買了大量抵押貸款支持證券。

If the federal reserve is not going to step in and buy that many mortgage-backed securities, then mortgage rates would simply skyrocket to the roof and that will make it impossible for the vast majority of Americans to buy houses.

如果美聯儲不出面購買那麼多抵押貸款支持證券，那麼抵押貸款利率就會一飛沖天，這將使絕大多數美國人無法買房。

Because if you literally pull out the statistics, it's very clear that the vast majority of people buy houses with a mortgage.

因為如果從字面上進行統計，就會發現絕大多數人都是通過按揭買房的。

Without a mortgage, most people cannot afford them.

如果沒有抵押貸款，大多數人都負擔不起。

But when you are already out of the crisis, it's time to fix the balance sheet.

但當你已經走出危機時，就該修復資產負債表了。

And that means that all of the mortgage-backed securities that the fed purchased during a crisis, it's now to sell them to investors.

這意味著，美聯儲在危機期間購買的所有抵押貸款支持證券，現在都要賣給投資者。

But the only way you can sell them to investors when you have low inflation.

但只有在低通脹的情況下，你才能把它們賣給投資者。

With high inflation, not a single investor is going to buy them.

在高通脹的情況下，沒有一個投資者會購買它們。

So to understand how it works, let's take a look at the balance sheet of the fed.

是以，為了瞭解它是如何運作的，讓我們來看看美聯儲的資產負債表。

At its peak, it was 9 trillion dollars, and since then, it began to reduce its balance sheet.

最高時達到 9 萬億美元，此後開始縮減資產負債表。

In fact, it's called something like Federal Reserve's Program to Reduce the Balance Sheet.

事實上，它被稱為 "美聯儲縮減資產負債表計劃"（Federal Reserve's Program to Reduce the Balance Sheet）。

This was basically the plan in 2022, that here is what we are going to do.

這基本上是 2022 年的計劃，也就是我們要做的事情。

We have 9 trillion dollars, and if we want to be ready for another crisis, we gotta get this number to the pre-2022 level, and that's around 4 trillion dollars.

我們有 9 萬億美元，如果我們想為另一場危機做好準備，就必須將這一數字降至 2022 年之前的水準，即 4 萬億美元左右。

So 5 trillion dollars of mortgage-backed securities and treasurer bills must be sold in the open market to real investors.

是以，5 萬億美元的抵押貸款支持證券和國庫券必須在公開市場上出售給真正的投資者。

And that's how we prepare the United States for another crisis.

這就是我們如何讓美國為另一場危機做好準備。

So if we are again over here, another crisis hits, we can again print so much money and fix the economy.

是以，如果我們在這裡再次遇到危機，我們可以再次印製大量鈔票來修復經濟。

We are going to sell 60 billion dollars worth of treasurer bills in the open market every single month, and another 35 billion dollars worth of mortgage-backed securities.

我們每個月都要在公開市場上出售價值 600 億美元的國庫券，以及價值 350 億美元的抵押貸款支持證券。

So within 2 years or so, we should solve this problem.

是以，在兩年左右的時間裡，我們應該能解決這個問題。

However, when the federal reserve pumped so many treasurer bills and mortgage-backed securities in the open market, it got a reality check.

然而，當聯邦儲備局在公開市場上大量投放國庫券和抵押貸款支持證券時，它得到了現實的檢驗。

It found out that nobody wants to buy that many treasurer bills at such a low interest rate and nobody wants to buy mortgage-backed securities at such a low interest rate.

它發現，沒有人願意以如此低的利率購買那麼多的國庫券，也沒有人願意以如此低的利率購買抵押支持證券。

That is why it revised its plan and came up with a completely new plan.

是以，它修改了計劃，並提出了一個全新的計劃。

Instead of selling 60 billion dollars, we are only going to sell 5 billion dollars.

我們不能賣出 600 億美元，而只能賣出 50 億美元。

Because if we are going to sell more than 5, the bond market can collapse.

因為如果我們要出售的債券超過 5 個，債券市場就會崩潰。

You see, the Fed has trillions of dollars of treasurer bills.

你看，美聯儲擁有數萬億美元的國庫券。

If we dump them instantly into the open market, and there isn't enough demand for them, what do you think is going to happen to the yields of the treasurer bills?

如果我們立即向公開市場拋售，而市場上又沒有足夠的需求，你認為國庫券的收益率會怎樣？

They will skyrocket, costing the government a lot of money to refinance its debt that it does consistently.

這些債務將急劇上升，使政府不得不花費大量資金為其持續進行的債務再融資。

So in order to prevent that and help the government not to be able to raise money at a lower interest rate, it dropped that number from 60 billion dollars to 5 billion dollars.

是以，為了防止出現這種情況，幫助政府無法以較低的利率籌集資金，政府將這一數字從 600 億美元降至 50 億美元。

Which means that it is going to take the Fed much longer to get rid of all of its treasurer bills.

這意味著，美聯儲需要更長的時間才能處理完所有的財務主管賬單。

On the other side, even though that mortgage-backed securities have a much higher interest rate compared to the treasurer bills, instead of 35 billion dollars, it could only sell 15 billion dollars.

另一方面，儘管抵押支持證券的利率比國庫券高得多，但它只能賣出 150 億美元，而不是 350 億美元。

By looking at this plan, and looking at the reality that the Fed has faced, do you think it will take the Fed just a year or two to get rid of all the securities that it purchased during covid?

看看這個計劃，再看看美聯儲面臨的現實，你認為美聯儲只需要一兩年的時間就能處理掉它在科維德時期購買的所有證券嗎？

Instead of selling 60 billion, you are selling 5 billion, it will take you far longer.

你的銷售額不是 600 億，而是 50 億，這將花費你更長的時間。

Instead of selling 35 billion dollars of mortgage-backed securities, you can only sell 15 billion dollars worth of mortgage-backed securities.

你不能出售 350 億美元的抵押貸款支持證券，而只能出售價值 150 億美元的抵押貸款支持證券。

And if you think, why doesn't the Fed simply sell them in the open market?

如果你認為，美聯儲為什麼不乾脆在公開市場上出售它們呢？

Do you know what's going to happen if the Federal Reserve is going to sell far more mortgage-backed securities than there is demand on the other side?

如果美聯儲出售的抵押貸款支持證券遠遠多於另一方的需求，你知道會發生什麼嗎？

So if you think that 7% mortgage rate is really high, then it's going to be 10%, 12% that is unsustainable.

是以，如果你認為 7% 的抵押貸款利率真的很高，那麼 10%、12% 的抵押貸款利率將是不可持續的。

So you can say for a fact that right now, the Federal Reserve is doing everything possible and it's trying to balance between making sure that your mortgage rate is not going to go above 7% and at the same time, reduce its balance sheet in such a way that the United States will be ready for another crisis.

是以，可以肯定地說，現在美聯儲正在盡一切可能，努力在確保抵押貸款利率不會超過 7% 和同時縮減資產負債表之間取得平衡，以便美國做好應對另一場危機的準備。

So it took the Federal Reserve 3 years to get out of the economy and sell 2.3 trillion dollars of securities and another 2.7 trillion dollars left, which means that it might take the Federal Reserve at least another 2 years to sell 2.7 trillion dollars of securities to be able to empty its balance sheet to the level that was pre-covid.

是以，美聯儲花了 3 年時間從經濟中抽身，出售了 2.3 萬億美元的證券，還剩下 2.7 萬億美元，這意味著美聯儲可能至少還需要 2 年時間出售 2.7 萬億美元的證券，才能將其資產負債表清空到危機前的水準。

So based on what we know right now, the real question is that when will the Federal Reserve lower down interest rates?

是以，根據我們目前所瞭解的情況，真正的問題是美聯儲何時會降低利率？

If you look at the numbers, you will see that at the end of 2024, the Fed did actually lower down interest rates.

如果你看一下數據，就會發現在 2024 年底，美聯儲確實降低了利率。

And that leads you to ask yourself a very simple question.

這就會讓你問自己一個非常簡單的問題。

字幕列表影片播放

美聯儲剛剛發出了一個強有力的資訊 (Federal Reserve Just Sent a Powerful Message)

entire

majority

slightly

vast