Name: 沃倫-巴菲特准備迎接類似 1929 年的大崩盤 (Warren Buffett Preparing For A Crash Like 1929)
Uploaded: 2025-07-29T18:16:03.000Z
Duration: 17 min 49 s

程度副詞

Warren Buffett has been acting really weird.

沃倫-巴菲特的行為一直很奇怪。

情態副詞

He has been massively selling most of his stocks.

他一直在大量拋售大部分股票。

In fact, if you look at his portfolio, he has now more cash than stocks.

事實上，如果你看看他的投資組合，他現在的現金比股票還多。

And the only reason that you would do something like that is when you are preparing for a massive crash so that when everything collapses, you have all the cash in the world and you will start buying all of his stocks at a huge discount.

你會這麼做的唯一原因是，你在為一場大崩盤做準備，這樣當一切都崩潰時，你就會有全世界所有的現金，你就會開始以巨大的折扣購買他的所有股票。

Warren Buffett is known to take advantage out of crises.

眾所周知，沃倫-巴菲特善於利用危機。

He timed 2008 financial crisis so accurately that when everybody was suffering, Warren Buffett became the richest man in the entire world.

他準確地把握住了 2008 年金融危機的時機，當所有人都在受苦受難時，巴菲特卻成為了全世界最富有的人。

So let's try to figure out why Warren Buffett is sitting on 300 billion dollars worth of cash, why he has been selling massively all of his stocks the last 2 years.

所以，讓我們試著搞清楚，為什麼巴菲特坐擁價值 3000 億美元的現金，為什麼他在過去兩年裡大量拋售所有股票。

So if you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's dive right into it.

所以，如果你已經準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們直接進入主題。

To understand what is happening, we first have to understand what is a P-E ratio.

要了解發生了什麼，我們首先要了解什麼是 P-E 比率。

A lot of you might already know what is a P-E ratio.

很多人可能已經知道什麼是 P-E 比率。

It's one of the indicators that you can take a look at the stock market is how much investors are willing to pay for every dollar of a profit that companies would possibly make.

投資者願意為公司可能賺取的每一美元利潤支付多少錢，這是股市的指標之一。

And this is a very basic indicator, it's not the only thing that you should look at when you are analyzing stocks, but it's one of the things that you look at.

這是一個非常基本的指標，它並不是你分析股票時唯一要看的東西，但它是你要看的東西之一。

Because if investors are suddenly overpaying for the dollars of the profits that corporations are making, that is a sign that you should be paying attention to.

因為如果投資者突然為公司的美元利潤多付了錢，這就是你應該注意的信號。

Let's say the price of the stock is 100 dollars, but the company made a profit of 5 dollars.

假設股票價格為 100 美元，但公司盈利 5 美元。

If we take 100 and divide it by 5, then that is a P-E ratio of 20.

如果我們用 100 除以 5，那麼 P-E 比率就是 20。

So if investors are buying the stock for 100 dollars and it made only 5 dollars, that means that investors are paying 20 dollars for every dollar of a profit.

是以，如果投資者以 100 美元的價格購買股票，而股票只賺了 5 美元，這意味著投資者為每 1 美元的利潤支付了 20 美元。

The higher the P-E ratio, the more the investors are overpaying for the stock.

市盈率越高，說明投資者為股票支付的價格越高。

And the reason could be that investors believe that this company is going to make a lot more money in the future and that's why they are willing to overpay for that stock today.

原因可能是，投資者相信這家公司未來會賺更多的錢，所以他們才願意為今天的股票多付錢。

For example, you will see pretty often high P-E ratio for tech stocks because technology companies are believed to make much more money in the future.

例如，你經常會看到科技股的市盈率很高，因為科技公司被認為在未來會賺更多的錢。

If you look at the P-E ratio of Tesla, you will see that it's over 100.

如果你看看特斯拉的市盈率，就會發現它超過了 100。

And that's because people who are paying so much money for the Tesla stock, it's because they believe that Tesla is going to be astronomically much more profitable sometime in the future than today.

這是因為，人們之所以花這麼多錢買特斯拉股票，是因為他們相信，特斯拉在未來某個時候的盈利能力會比現在高得多。

Whether that will happen or not, that's a completely different question.

至於會不會發生，那是完全不同的問題。

But what is important to pay attention is that, what is the P-E ratio of the entire S&P 500?

但需要注意的是，整個標準普爾 500 指數的市盈率是多少？

S&P 500 represents the entire US economy because it represents all the 500 major companies in the US.

標準普爾 500 指數代表了整個美國經濟，因為它代表了美國所有 500 家主要公司。

那麼，它們的 P-E 比率是多少？

If you can find that out, you can find out whether the entire market is overvalued or undervalued because you are not picking one single stock but you are looking at the entire market.

如果你能發現這一點，你就能發現整個市場的價值是被高估了還是被低估了，因為你挑選的不是一隻股票，而是整個市場。

So if you look at the P-E ratios, you will see a clear pattern.

是以，如果查看 P-E 比率，就會發現一個清晰的模式。

標準普爾 500 指數的市盈率為 21。

And then suddenly you see that it falls down to 11.

然後，你突然發現它降到了 11。

And that's because it was one of the major crushes in the history of the S&P 500.

這是因為它是標準普爾 500 指數歷史上最嚴重的崩盤之一。

When investors overpaid, they started buying a lot of stocks thinking that the stock market is going to grow forever.

當投資者過度投資時，他們開始大量購買股票，以為股市會永遠增長。

And then a reality check came in, and the market crushed and investors began to sell because they realized that they have overpaid so much for the stocks.

然後，現實來了，市場崩潰了，投資者開始拋售，因為他們意識到，他們為股票付出了太多。

記住，現在就像上世紀 80 年代。

Back in the days, we did not have technology companies.

So nobody was assuming that these companies are going to make so much money in the future.

是以，沒有人假設這些公司將來會賺這麼多錢。

We did not have Nvidia or Google or Amazon.

我們沒有英偉達（Nvidia）、谷歌（Google）或亞馬遜（Amazon）。

We had traditional companies such as Johnson and Johnson or beverage type of companies.

我們有強生公司或飲料公司等傳統公司。

But if you go back to 1990s, you will see that, again, we had a huge decline in the P-E ratio of the S&P 500.

但如果你回到 20 世紀 90 年代，你會發現，標準普爾 500 指數的市盈率再次大幅下降。

A good P-E ratio is anything between 15 to 18.

良好的 P-E 比值在 15 到 18 之間。

Anything above that is considered to be a very high P-E ratio.

超過這個數值就被認為是極高的 P-E 比值。

And just maybe the stock might be overvalued.

For certain industries, it could be slightly different.

對於某些行業，情況可能略有不同。

If you're looking at a P-E ratio, for example, of a technology company, then you might assume that the P-E ratio could be slightly higher there.

例如，如果你看的是一家科技公司的市盈率，那麼你可能會認為該公司的市盈率可能會稍高一些。

But if you're looking for a P-E ratio of a car company such as Ford, then probably a P-E ratio of over 10 is already overvalued because you don't assume that Ford is suddenly going to build flying cars that will revolutionize the entire world and they will be making a lot of money sometime in the future.

但是，如果你在尋找一家汽車公司（如福特）的市盈率，那麼市盈率超過 10 的公司可能已經被高估了，因為你不會假定福特會突然製造出飛行汽車，給整個世界帶來革命性的變化，而且他們在未來的某個時候會賺得盆滿缽滿。

It's a very traditional, predictable business that they've been selling these cars for the last 100 years.

在過去的 100 年裡，他們一直在銷售這些汽車，這是一項非常傳統、可預測的業務。

However, if you look at this period, you will not see a stock market crash.

然而，縱觀這一時期，你不會看到股市崩盤。

So why on earth, when the P-E ratios have been adjusted from 23 to 15, the stock market did not crash back in the 1990s?

那麼，當市盈率從 23 調整到 15 時，股市究竟為什麼沒有在 20 世紀 90 年代崩潰呢？

And that's because there are two reasons why P-E ratios can drop.

這是因為 P-E 比率下降有兩個原因。

Number one is when stock prices collapse, and that's a massive stock market crash.

第一種情況是股票價格崩潰，也就是股市大崩盤。

That means that P-E ratios have lowered down.

But the second reason could be is that corporate earnings and profits start to rise and they will match the current stock prices.

第二個原因可能是企業盈利和利潤開始上升，它們將與當前的股票價格相匹配。

So let's say in this case, we have like the stock price is 100 and the profits is 5.

比方說，在這種情況下，我們的股票價格是 100，利潤是 5。

And that's why we have a P-E ratio of 20.

這就是為什麼我們的 P-E 比率是 20。

Now let's imagine for a moment that the profits of the company is going to rise to $10 per share.

現在讓我們設想一下，公司的利潤將上升到每股 10 美元。

So we have to take 100 and then we have to divide it by 10 and that will give us 10.

是以，我們必須用 100 除以 10，得出 10。

So the P-E ratio now is going to be 10 and not 20.

是以，現在的 P-E 比率將是 10，而不是 20。

So the price of the stock remained the same.

However, because the corporate profits have risen, the P-E ratios have gone down.

然而，由於企業利潤增加，市盈率卻下降了。

And that's why back in the 1990s, when the internet revolution was taking place and we had a lot of tech companies that emerged, they started making a lot of money.

這就是為什麼在 20 世紀 90 年代，當互聯網革命興起時，我們出現了很多科技公司，它們開始賺大錢。

This was the period when Google appeared.

This was the time when Amazon was created and most of the tech companies that you know today.

亞馬遜就是在這個時候誕生的，而今天大家所熟知的大多數科技公司也是在這個時候誕生的。

And that's why corporate earnings started to rise dramatically and P-E ratios started going down.

這就是為什麼企業盈利開始大幅增長，市盈率開始下降。

So a sharp decline in P-E ratio does not necessarily mean that there is a stock market crash.

是以，市盈率急劇下降並不一定意味著股市崩盤。

It could basically mean that corporations are now making much more money and they reflect the stock prices they are being traded in the market.

從根本上說，這可能意味著企業現在賺了更多的錢，它們在市場上交易的股票價格也反映了這一點。

However, if you look very closely, you will see another huge increase in the P-E ratio of the S&P 500.

然而，如果你仔細觀察，就會發現標準普爾 500 指數的 P-E 比率再次大幅上升。

It more than doubled in such a short period of time.

在如此短的時間內，它翻了一番還多。

This is when the dot-com bubble was happening.

When the P-E ratios have increased so much, everybody knew that the stock market is in a bubble and tech companies have been overvalued.

當市盈率大幅上升時，每個人都知道股市處於保麗龍之中，科技公司被高估了。

Because investors used to think that all the stock markets are growing, all the stocks are growing tremendously, and people thought that if they keep buying internet stocks, they will never collapse.

因為投資者曾經認為，所有的股市都在增長，所有的股票都在大幅增長，人們認為只要不斷購買互聯網股票，就永遠不會崩潰。

They started buying, stocks started to rise dramatically, but these companies were not making as much profit.

他們開始購買，股票開始大幅上漲，但這些公司的利潤卻沒有那麼多。

And that's why P-E ratios began to rise dramatically.

這就是市盈率開始大幅上升的原因。

But at a certain time, people realized that it's a bubble and the entire stock market crashed.

但到了某個時候，人們意識到這是一個保麗龍，整個股市崩盤了。

And that's why you see that P-E ratios have fallen from 33 to 25.

這就是 P-E 比率從 33 降到 25 的原因。

In early 2000s, the stock market crash reached its peak when the stocks collapsed by 78% and P-E ratios have reached 45.

2000 年代初，股市崩盤達到頂峰，股票暴跌 78%，市盈率達到 45。

The stock market collapsed by 78% to the point where earnings did not match the stocks at all and that's why P-E ratios have reached 45.

股市崩潰了 78%，以至於盈利與股票完全不匹配，這就是市盈率達到 45 的原因。

Over the next couple of years, P-E ratios began to fall down because the corporations that survived the dot-com bubble, they started building their businesses, restructuring their entire business model, and started making money.

在接下來的幾年裡，市盈率開始下降，因為那些在網絡保麗龍中倖存下來的公司，開始建立自己的業務，重組整個商業模式，並開始賺錢。

And that's why P-E ratios over the next couple of years adjusted.

這就是未來幾年 P-E 比率調整的原因。

Most of the internet companies entirely disappeared at the peak of the dot-com bubble when the stock market crashed by 78%.

在互聯網保麗龍高峰期，股市暴跌 78%，大部分互聯網公司完全消失。

In fact, if I am not mistaken, Amazon stock also crashed by like 95 or 97%.

事實上，如果我沒記錯的話，亞馬遜的股價也下跌了 95% 或 97%。

And if they haven't secured a deal right before the crash, Amazon today wouldn't be one of the most successful companies in the world.

如果亞馬遜沒有在股災前達成交易，今天就不會成為世界上最成功的公司之一。

So by looking at the P-E ratio of the entire S&P 500, we can have a picture either the stock market is overvalued or undervalued.

是以，通過觀察整個標準普爾 500 指數的市盈率，我們就可以知道股市是被高估了還是被低估了。

So if the P-E ratio today is really high, we have to ask ourselves the question is that, are corporate profits are going to catch up the P-E ratio on the stock prices or it's going to be the other way around, where stock prices have to fall down in order to reflect the real corporate profits.

是以，如果今天的市盈率真的很高，我們就必須問自己一個問題：企業利潤是要趕上股票價格的市盈率，還是要反過來，股票價格必須下跌才能反映企業的實際利潤。

Another major crash was the 2008 financial crisis when P-E ratios have reached an all-time high.

另一次重大崩盤是 2008 年金融危機，當時市盈率達到歷史最高點。

The stock market was falling down, everybody was selling their stocks, and everybody thought that this is the end of the world, until the Federal Reserve stepped in and injected the economy with trillions of dollars of cheap money, and that's why corporate profits began to rise.

股市下跌，每個人都在拋售股票，每個人都認為這是世界末日，直到美聯儲介入，向經濟注入數萬億美元的廉價資金，企業利潤才開始上升。

If it wasn't for all of this cheap money that came from the Federal Reserve, the corporate profits wouldn't have risen and this P-E ratio wouldn't have started this high.

如果沒有美聯儲提供的這些廉價資金，企業利潤就不會上升，市盈率也不會這麼高。

Since then, the economy has been doing pretty good and P-E ratios have been around 15 to 20 which is a very normal rate.

從那時起，經濟狀況一直不錯，市盈率一直保持在 15 到 20 左右，這是一個非常正常的比率。

However, what you see here is that in 2021, P-E ratios have fallen down from 38 to 19.

然而，你在這裡看到的是，在 2021 年，P-E 比率從 38 降到了 19。

But we did not have a market crash back in 2021.

但在 2021 年，我們並沒有遇到市場崩潰。

The only real market crash that we had was in 2022 when the Federal Reserve hiked the interest rate.

唯一一次真正的市場崩潰是在 2022 年美聯儲加息時。

And that's because in 2020 and 2021, the Federal Reserve injected the economy with so much cheap money that corporations borrowed this money almost at 0% interest rate.

這是因為在 2020 年和 2021 年，美聯儲向經濟注入了大量廉價資金，企業幾乎是以 0% 的利率借入這些資金。

And that means that if you take a look at their financial statements, suddenly you will see huge profits.

這就意味著，如果你看一下他們的財務報表，你會突然看到鉅額利潤。