Name: 為什麼所有百萬富翁都在為大崩盤做準備？ (Why All Millionaires Are Preparing for a Massive Crash)
Uploaded: 2025-07-27T18:30:42.000Z
Duration: 20 min 18 s

are on the brink of the greatest opportunity of our lifetime.

我們正處於一生中最偉大機遇的邊緣。

This is going to be the easiest money that you will ever make.

I never thought that this is going to happen in my life.

我從未想過，這將會發生在我的生命中。

I never thought that I am going to witness it within my lifetime.

我從未想過在有生之年能親眼目睹這一切。

But it seems like it's happening, and I don't want anybody to miss this opportunity.

但這似乎正在發生，我不希望任何人錯過這個機會。

If you think that I am exaggerating, just watch the video till the end and you will be convinced.

如果你認為我在誇大其詞，只要把視頻看完，你就會信服。

Because this is going to be one of the biggest crushes of the US dollar that we have ever seen in our lifetime.

因為這將是我們有生以來所見過的對美元最大的打擊之一。

So if you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's dive right into it.

所以，如果你已經準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們直接進入主題。

The United States is on the brink of refinancing its entire debt.

美國即將對其全部債務進行再融資。

The total debt is 37 trillion dollars and around 20 trillion dollars is about to be refinanced because it's about to expire.

債務總額為 37 萬億美元，約有 20 萬億美元因即將到期而需要再融資。

And Donald Trump recently gave a visit to the chairman of the Fed to see the construction that is happening in the federal reserve in order to use that as a tool to pressure the Fed to lower down interest rates.

唐納德-特朗普最近拜訪了美聯儲主席，想看看美聯儲正在進行的建設，以便以此為工具向美聯儲施壓，迫使其降低利率。

And Donald Trump made it clear, I don't care about the construction.

唐納德-特朗普明確表示，我不在乎施工。

I don't care about what is happening over here.

What I care about is that I want you to lower down the interest rates by 3 percentage points, not just by 0.5% or 1%, but bring it down to 1%.

我關心的是，我希望你們把利率降低 3 個百分點，不是 0.5%或 1%，而是降到 1%。

If you got us down to 1, we would save more than a trillion dollars basically with just a paper transfer.

如果你讓我們降到 1，我們基本上只需通過紙質轉賬就能節省超過一萬億美元。

You wouldn't be cutting costs of anything.

Just a move of the hand saying we are going to lower interest rates.

只是舉手之勞，說我們要降低利率。

You would save a trillion dollars a year.

Will the government save 1 trillion dollars?

If you look at the structure of the US debt, you will see that it consists of multiple treasurer bills at different periods.

如果你看一下美國債務的結構，就會發現它由不同時期的多張國庫券組成。

For example, we have 1-month treasurer bills, or we have 4 months, 2 years, up to 30 years, and each of them have different yields.

例如，我們有 1 個月的國庫券，也有 4 個月、2 年甚至 30 年的國庫券，每種國庫券的收益率都不同。

Now yields are simply a fancy word for a rate of return.

現在，收益率只是回報率的一個花哨的詞。

So on 1-month government bonds, we have 4.3%, but for 30-year government bonds, we have 5%.

是以，1 個月期政府債券的利率為 4.3%，而 30 年期政府債券的利率為 5%。

When the bill expires, the government has to pay back the principal.

法案到期後，政府必須償還本金。

And as you can see that, for example, the treasurer bills that were created 6 months ago are about to expire today, and that means that the government has to somehow refinance them.

舉例來說，你可以看到，6 個月前制定的國庫券今天就要到期了，這意味著政府必須以某種方式對其進行再融資。

And the short-term treasurer bills must be consistently refinanced.

而短期的財務主管賬單必須持續進行再融資。

If we are talking about 30-year government bonds, then nobody cares about them because they are there for the next 30 years and not many people care about that.

如果我們談論的是 30 年期的政府債券，那麼沒有人會關心它們，因為它們在未來 30 年都會存在，而沒有多少人會關心這個問題。

But the presidency of Donald Trump is going to be 4 years, and all of these short-term government bonds must be refinanced during the time that he is going to be in office.

但唐納德-特朗普的總統任期將是 4 年，所有這些短期政府債券都必須在他任職期間進行再融資。

So he believes that if we lower down the interest rates, then we might actually refinance them at much lower interest rates.

是以，他認為，如果我們降低利率，那麼實際上我們可能會以更低的利率進行再融資。

Currently, the rates are anything between 4 to 4.5 percent, but if we bring them down to 1 percent, suddenly the government is going to save 1 trillion dollars, and the United States government will no longer have a deficit.

目前，利率在 4%至 4.5%之間，但如果我們將利率降至 1%，政府將突然節省 1 萬億美元，美國政府將不再有赤字。

That sounds great in theory, but if you do something like that, it is going to have catastrophic effects, and I am not exaggerating at all.

這在理論上聽起來很不錯，但如果你這樣做，就會產生災難性的後果，我一點也不誇張。

To understand what's happening, we first have to understand how the US government accumulated 37 trillion dollars.

要了解發生了什麼，我們首先要了解美國政府是如何積累了 37 萬億美元的。

A lot of people have this wrong perception that if the federal reserve lowers down interest rates, then the government will be able to borrow money at a lower interest rate, and vice versa, which is why if we lower down interest rates by the fed, it's such an easy job to do, why aren't we doing that?

很多人都有這樣的錯誤觀念，認為如果美聯儲降低利率，那麼政府就能以更低的利率借到錢，反之亦然，這就是為什麼如果我們由美聯儲降低利率，這是件很容易的事，為什麼我們不這麼做呢？

However, that's not how the system works.

You see, the government of the United States on one side, borrows money from investors on the other side.

你看，一邊是美國政府，另一邊是向投資者借錢。

Now, investors are anybody who have extra money and is willing to invest his money.

現在，投資者是任何有多餘資金並願意投資的人。

That could be me, that could be you, or it could be some kind of a hedge fund.

可能是我，可能是你，也可能是某個對沖基金。

The person who is investing his money, he is investing that money with one mindset in mind, that he wants to make money on his money.

投資人在投資時只有一個念頭，那就是想用自己的錢賺錢。

Let's say that you work super hard and now you have saved an extra hundred thousand dollars.

比方說，你工作超級努力，現在又多攢了十萬美元。

I mean, saving a hundred thousand dollars is a good achievement if you are just starting out.

我的意思是，如果你剛剛起步，攢下十萬美元已經是不錯的成績了。

And now, are you willing to give that money for free to anybody?

現在，你願意把這筆錢免費送給任何人嗎？

Now, you want your money to work for you, so suddenly you build wealth and create generational wealth.

現在，你希望你的錢為你工作，這樣你就能突然積累財富，創造世代財富。

So, you will only loan it to the US government if the government of the United States will provide you with interest.

是以，只有美國政府向你提供利息，你才會借給美國政府。

And when you are investing, there are two most important factors that you always look at.

而在投資時，有兩個最重要的因素是你必須始終關注的。

The lower the risk, the safer the investment.

If your friend would come and ask you and tells you, Oh, Michael, please give me your hundred thousand dollars for my startup.

如果你的朋友來問你，並告訴你，哦，邁克爾，請把你的十萬美元給我，讓我創業。

Will you give it to him knowing that he always plays video games and he's lazy and he doesn't even have a job?

你知道他總是玩電子遊戲，他很懶，甚至沒有工作，你會給他嗎？

Most likely you won't even give him the money.

And secondly, even if you provide him with that money and so on, you will charge him a thousand percent interest rate.

其次，即使你向他提供了這筆錢，你也要向他收取千分之一的利息。

Now, second thing that you care about is the rate of return.

現在，你關心的第二件事就是回報率。

With your friend, the risks are very high, but with the US government, the risks are very low because if the government won't be able to pay you back, it can always tax the American citizens and raise money and pay you back.

對你的朋友來說，風險很高，但對美國政府來說，風險很低，因為如果政府無法償還你的錢，它可以隨時向美國公民徵稅，籌集資金並償還給你。

So you're not worried about the ability of the government of the United States to pay you back.

所以你並不擔心美國政府還錢的能力。

I'm not saying that you trust the US government more than you trust your best friend, but I'm simply telling you that if you look at the facts, when it comes to your credit score, the government of the United States has a much better chance to pay you back than your friend who is lazy and playing video games all the time.

我並不是說你信任美國政府勝過信任你最好的朋友，我只是想告訴你，如果你看清事實，當涉及到你的信用評分時，美國政府還錢給你的機會要比你那個懶惰成性、整天玩電子遊戲的朋友大得多。

Now, this is a very interesting thing because the rate of return depends on the risk that you are taking, but as a smart investor, you always want to make a rate that is slightly higher than inflation.

現在，這是一個非常有趣的問題，因為回報率取決於你所承擔的風險，但作為一個聰明的投資者，你總是希望回報率略高於通貨膨脹率。

So if inflation is 2%, then you will accept anything above 2% depends on the risk.

是以，如果通脹率為 2%，那麼你會接受高於 2% 的任何東西，這取決於風險。

If it's a risk-free investment, then you are ready to accept 3 or 4%.

如果是無風險投資，那麼您可以接受 3% 或 4%。

If inflation is 5%, then you will accept everything above 5%.

如果通脹率是 5%，那麼你就會接受高於 5%的一切。

Because if you are making 4% and inflation is 5%, then you are losing money.

因為如果你的收入是 4%，而通貨膨脹率是 5%，那麼你就是在賠錢。

Because inflation simply means that money is losing its value.

因為通貨膨脹僅僅意味著貨幣貶值。

It means that the dollar is being devalued.

So if your dollars are being devalued at 5% and you are making 3% on the other side, then you are losing 2% in interest rate, which is why you first take into consideration the inflation and then you will take the real that is above inflation.

是以，如果你的美元貶值了 5%，而你在另一邊賺了 3%，那麼你就損失了 2% 的利率，這就是為什麼你首先要考慮通貨膨脹，然後再考慮高於通貨膨脹的實際利率。

And that's what investors do on the other side.

So the US government offers these treasurer bills between 1 month up to 30 years and then it auctions them.

是以，美國政府提供 1 個月到 30 年不等的國庫券，然後進行拍賣。

If the government will offer 3%, then the investors accept, that is going to be the yield on these 1-month treasurer bills.

如果政府出價 3%，然後投資者接受，這就是這些 1 個月國庫券的收益率。

If investors won't accept 4.3%, for example, then the government will have to offer a much higher interest rate.

例如，如果投資者不接受 4.3%的利率，那麼政府就必須提供更高的利率。

And the government will continue offering higher and higher interest until there will be enough investors to accept this investment from the US government and loan their money to the US government so that the government can spend it on whatever the United States wants and needs.

政府將繼續提供越來越高的利息，直到有足夠多的投資者接受美國政府的這項投資，並把錢借給美國政府，這樣政府就可以把錢花在美國想要和需要的任何地方。

So the interest rate on the debt of the United States is not being set by the federal reserve.

是以，美國債務的利率並不是由聯邦儲備局設定的。

The federal reserve has nothing to do with the debt of the United States.

聯邦儲備局與美國的債務毫無關係。

The federal reserve has nothing to do with the deficit of the United States.

美聯儲與美國的財政赤字毫無關係。

It's the supply and demand in the bond market that determines at what rate the United States will borrow its money.

債券市場的供求關係決定了美國的借貸利率。

So the Fed can lower down the interest rates to 0%, or to 1%, or to negative 100%.

是以，美聯儲可以將利率降至 0%，或 1%，或負 100%。

Now, it doesn't mean that the government will be able to borrow money from the Fed from the investors at such a low interest rate.

現在，這並不意味著政府能夠以如此低的利率向美聯儲的投資者借錢。

But wait a second, it doesn't all make sense.

但是，等一下，這一切都說不通。

What you are saying is absolutely nonsense because when the Fed lowers down interest rates, the cost of borrowing becomes more accessible so the government can refinance at a lower rate.

你所說的絕對是無稽之談，因為當美聯儲降低利率時，借貸成本就會變得更容易接受，這樣政府就能以更低的利率進行再融資。

Now, the reason that it works like that is because on one side, you have the investors.

這樣做的原因是，一邊是投資者。

When investors look at the Federal Reserve, they consider the Federal Reserve as the most independent entity that governs inflation in the United States.

當投資者關注美聯儲時，他們認為美聯儲是管理美國通貨膨脹的最獨立實體。

So when the Federal Reserve lowers down interest rates, all these investors believe that inflation is so low in the United States that it makes sense to lower down interest rates.

是以，當美聯儲降低利率時，所有這些投資者都認為美國的通脹率很低，降低利率是合理的。

Maybe the United States is going through a deflationary period where prices are going down, just like it's happening in Japan, and that's why the Fed is lowering down interest rates.

也許美國正在經歷通貨緊縮時期，物價正在下降，就像日本發生的情況一樣，這就是美聯儲降低利率的原因。

That means that the value of the dollar is rising.

On the other side, if the Federal Reserve is increasing the interest rates, that means that there is a problem with inflation and the investors will accept a much higher interest rate.

另一方面，如果美聯儲提高利率，就意味著存在通貨膨脹問題，投資者將接受更高的利率。

So the reason that these investors believe the Federal Reserve so much is because they assume that this is a very independent entity whose first priority is to manage inflation in the United States and not follow the wish and the desires of the White House.

是以，這些投資者之所以如此相信美聯儲，是因為他們認為美聯儲是一個非常獨立的實體，其首要任務是管理美國的通貨膨脹，而不是按照白宮的意願和願望行事。

So if suddenly, if you force the Federal Reserve to lower down interest rates because the White House said so, these investors are not stupid.

是以，如果突然因為白宮的一句話而迫使美聯儲降低利率，這些投資者並不傻。

They are not simply going to follow the Federal Reserve.

They are not going to simply follow the White House just because the White But what if the government still decides to offer these treasurer bills at 1% interest rates, and investors are not willing to buy them?

但如果政府仍然決定以 1%的利率發售這些國庫券，而投資者又不願意購買呢？

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為什麼所有百萬富翁都在為大崩盤做準備？ (Why All Millionaires Are Preparing for a Massive Crash)

assume

massive

pandemic

opportunity