Name: 金價持續瘋狂上漲，這說明了什麼？ (What Gold’s Crazy Run Says About China)
Uploaded: 2024-12-08T21:01:10.000Z
Duration: 9 min 42 s

The price of gold has broken record after record this year, but it's the nature of that surge that's caught people's attention.

今年，黃金價格打破了一個又一個紀錄，但引起人們關注的是這種飆升的性質。

轉承詞

It's basically flown against all the rules in the macro playbook and it's led some people to scratch their heads, wonder if there's a big mystery buyer in the market because it really doesn't make sense.

這基本上違背了宏觀遊戲規則中的所有規則，導致一些人抓耳撓腮，懷疑市場上是否有一個神祕的大買家，因為這實在說不通。

One country has been key to why gold's value has soared.

有一個國家是黃金價值飆升的關鍵原因。

This bar is around 100 grams and it's around 10,000 US dollars.

這條重約 100 克，價值約 10 000 美元。

And this has revealed just how nervous Chinese consumers are.

這也揭示了中國消費者有多麼緊張。

So what's driving this in 2024 and will it last?

那麼，是什麼推動了 2024 年的發展？

I've never seen their desire to hide their wealth away from somewhere as strong as now.

我從未見過他們像現在這樣強烈地想把財富藏得遠遠的。

As a bit of a primer, it's worth quickly looking at just how much gold actually exists.

作為入門讀物，我們不妨快速瞭解一下實際存在的黃金數量。

The finite quantity and near indestructibility of gold underpins its value.

黃金的有限數量和近乎堅不可摧的特性是其價值的基礎。

About 212,000 tonnes have been mined from the earth, it's estimated, almost half of that in jewellery.

據估計，已從地球上開採出約 212,000 噸，其中近一半是珠寶。

Most of the rest is in bars and coins, in banks or private vaults around the world.

其餘的大部分以金條和硬幣的形式存在於世界各地的銀行或私人保險庫中。

It's harder to imagine a safer asset than gold.

很難想象還有比黃金更安全的資產。

It's a heavy thing, the logistics of even coming over and stealing it and seizing it.

這是件沉重的事情，甚至是過來偷竊和扣押的後勤工作。

It requires a lot of logistical thinking and legwork there.

這需要大量的後勤思考和腳本工作。

It's one way gold earned a reputation for being a haven from volatility.

這也是黃金贏得 "波動避風港 "美譽的方式之一。

The US can seize and freeze US dollar assets very easily.

美國可以輕而易舉地扣押和凍結美元資產。

And that particular episode has really influenced the way a lot of the emerging market world thinks about how to allocate your reserves and stay safe in a world where at this point, who knows what's next.

在這個誰也不知道下一步會發生什麼的世界裡，如何分配你的儲備並保持安全，這一特殊事件確實影響了許多新興市場國家的思考方式。

In the first half of 2024, war in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as the prospect of lower US interest rates, all nudged the price up.

2024 年上半年，烏克蘭和中東戰爭以及美國利率下調的前景都推動了價格上漲。

So who's been driving gold prices in 2024?

那麼，是誰推動了 2024 年的金價？

They've been buying up quite a lot of gold, hoovering it up really over the last two years.

在過去的兩年裡，他們購買了大量的黃金，真的是囤積居奇。

You've had analysts from Goldman Sachs pointing to emerging market central banks as being the real driver behind gold's incredible rally this year.

高盛（Goldman Sachs）的分析師指出，新興市場的央行是黃金今年驚人漲勢背後的真正驅動力。

In fact, it's been the dominant driver of the upward gold move since 22.

事實上，自 22 年以來，它一直是黃金上行的主要驅動力。

The moment that Russian financial assets were blocked, then that sparks a lot of concern from a lot of emerging markets and China in particular that, who knows, this might happen to them one day.

俄羅斯金融資產被封鎖的那一刻，引發了許多新興市場，尤其是中國的擔憂，誰知道有一天這種情況會不會發生在自己身上。

The People's Bank of China embarked on an 18-month buying spree in 2023 and 2024, purchasing gold to diversify away from US dollars as tensions with America grew.

隨著與美國的緊張關係日益加劇，中國人民銀行在 2023 年和 2024 年開始了長達 18 個月的瘋狂購買，購買黃金以分散對美元的投資。

The central bank's now sitting on nearly 2,300 tonnes.

Which brings us to the other driver that pushed up gold's price, China's retail might.

這就引出了推高金價的另一個驅動因素--中國的零售實力。

When you buy traditional Chinese gold jewellery, you're not just buying the design.

購買中國傳統金飾時，您購買的不僅僅是設計。

You're quite literally buying its weight in gold.

Normally in the tradition, the parents, the grannies, the family will pass this Chinese jewellery to the next generation.

通常在傳統中，父母、祖母、家族會將這種中國珠寶傳給下一代。

So they pass on to you as a luck to give you some blessing.

是以，他們會把這種幸運傳遞給你，給你一些祝福。

And at the same time, it's more like passing on some of the tangible assets to the next generations as well.

同時，這也更像是將一些有形資產傳給下一代。

It is a tangible representation of wealth.

As Chinese consumers joined in the rush earlier in the year, gold's value accelerated even more.

隨著中國消費者在今年年初加入搶購行列，黃金的價值進一步攀升。

China's now the world's biggest retail buyer of gold, purchasing roughly a thousand tonnes in 2023, mostly in jewellery.

中國目前是世界上最大的黃金零售買家，2023 年將購買約一千噸黃金，其中大部分是珠寶。

But Chinese gold demand hasn't been driven by people spending extra cash.

但是，中國的黃金需求並不是因為人們花了更多的錢。

為什麼這個市場總是搖搖欲墜？

A swinging local stock market, limited investment options and a persistent property crisis is dragging on the Chinese economy.

當地股市搖擺不定、投資選擇有限以及持續的房地產危機拖累了中國經濟。

Over the last three years, China's property market has been battered.

過去三年，中國房地產市場遭受重創。

Homes were a key store of value for many Chinese.

對於許多中國人來說，房屋是重要的價值儲存手段。

As the crisis has dragged on, billions have been wiped off household wealth.

隨著危機的持續，數十億家庭財富化為烏有。

Government figures show at least 380 million square metres of excess housing in China.

政府數據顯示，中國至少有 3.8 億平方米的過剩住房。

That's equivalent to the size of Detroit.

And despite Beijing unveiling its biggest package yet to reduce borrowing costs, prices have continued to slump.

儘管中國政府推出了迄今為止最大的降低借貸成本的一攬子計劃，但房價仍持續下滑。

In the last 20 or 30 years, I have not seen, like in general sense, the Chinese population has been so worried about the future, the economic future.

在過去的二三十年裡，我從未見過像一般意義上的中國人對未來、對經濟前景如此憂心忡忡。

Anxiety lingers about jobs, wages and what lies ahead for China.

對就業、工資和中國未來的擔憂揮之不去。

And I've never seen their desire to hide their wealth away from somewhere as strong as now.

Evidence of China's changing consumption of gold can be found here in Shenzhen's Shuibei market.

在深圳水貝市場，可以看到中國黃金消費變化的證據。

Nearly 14 billion US dollars of gold was sold here in 2023.

2023 年，這裡售出了近 140 億美元的黃金。

但到了今年秋天，情況發生了變化。

In October, gold's price peaked just shy of $2,800, an all-time high.

10 月份，黃金價格達到 2,800 美元的歷史最高點。

Chinese jewellery buyers said, enough's enough.

So I talked to my old friends to get an idea like what has been happening in China's jewellery gold market recently.

於是，我和我的老朋友們聊了聊，想了解一下最近中國珠寶黃金市場的情況。

They told me the sales in October was so bad that the whole entire Shuibei area only sold one tonne of gold in October.

他們告訴我，十月份的銷售情況非常糟糕，整個水北地區十月份只賣出了一噸黃金。

In a normal month, the sales of gold is still between 20 tonnes and 40 tonnes a month in a week season.

在正常月份，黃金銷售量在一週的銷售旺季每月仍在 20 噸到 40 噸之間。

Chinese consumers helped push gold's price so high, they were priced out of the jewellery they'd been buying.

中國消費者將黃金價格推得如此之高，以至於他們一直購買的珠寶都被擠出了黃金價格。

At the same time, those with wealth bought these.

與此同時，那些有錢人也買了這些東西。

Helping nudge gold's value to a record high.

I think one of the most interesting things about gold right now is that you're seeing a lot of demand for the physical bullion.

我認為目前黃金最有趣的一點是，實物金條的需求量很大。

There's cost of carry charges associated with physical bullion and you have to pay storage fees as well.

實物金條需要支付攜帶費，還需要支付存儲費。

So if you're willing to take on those extra costs just to have a physical piece of bullion in your ownership, I think that suggests there are deeper underlying concerns about where the world is headed.

是以，如果你願意承擔這些額外成本，只是為了擁有一塊實物金條，我認為這表明你對世界的走向有更深層次的擔憂。

Sales of bars and coins are up nearly 30% this year.

今年，金條和硬幣的銷量增長了近 30%。

Gold is seen as the safest place to store your wealth, even when prices are this high.

黃金被視為儲存財富最安全的地方，即使價格如此之高。

From time to time, I always share conversations with my friends in China.

我時常與我在中國的朋友交流。

Some of them are very wealthy, they're working across various different industries.

他們中的一些人非常富有，在各行各業工作。

Some in mining, some in jewellery, some in batteries, some in EV.

有的從事採礦業，有的從事珠寶業，有的從事電池業，有的從事電動車業。

So they're all across different industries.

是以，他們都跨越了不同的行業。

And a common sentiment that I get from them is they don't feel hope for the future.

我從他們那裡得到的一個共同感受是，他們對未來不抱希望。

People are actually getting less comfortable and want to do something to protect their own wealth.

實際上，人們越來越不安於現狀，想要做些什麼來保護自己的財富。

But obviously they are not going to store it in a bank because they will be fined out.

但他們顯然不會把錢存入銀行，因為他們會被罰款。

是以，他們把它存放在自己的地方。

Despite fluctuations, gold remains at a near record high and the trend since the millennium shows its journey.

儘管有所波動，但黃金仍處於接近歷史最高點的位置，千禧年以來的走勢也顯示了其發展歷程。

If fear and instability have underpinned the rally, then 2025 will see it continue.

如果說恐懼和不穩定是反彈的基礎，那麼 2025 年的反彈還將繼續。

The incoming Trump administration has threatened Beijing with 60% tariffs.

即將上任的特朗普政府威脅要對中國徵收 60% 的關稅。

Two social messages, at least two of them that he's laid out his plan on day one for tariffs.

兩條社交資訊，至少有兩條是他在第一天就為關稅制定的計劃。

And we all know that Donald Trump says he loves that word tariffs.

我們都知道，唐納德-特朗普說他喜歡關稅這個詞。

A potential escalation of US-China trade tensions could threaten already weak Chinese growth and upend global markets.

中美貿易緊張局勢的潛在升級可能會威脅到本已疲軟的中國經濟增長，並顛覆全球市場。

You're going to have central banks look at Trump and potentially what could be a erratic foreign policy and get a little bit more concerned about the safety of their reserves and their assets.

各國央行看到特朗普以及可能反覆無常的外交政策，會對其儲備和資產的安全性更加擔憂。

And in that context, gold makes a lot of sense.

在這種情況下，黃金就很有意義了。

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金價持續瘋狂上漲，這說明了什麼？ (What Gold’s Crazy Run Says About China)

anxiety

physical

crisis

surge