On the edge of one of the world's busiest shipping corridors sits an armada of tankers trading in billions of dollars worth of sanctioned oil.

在世界最繁忙的航運走廊之一的邊緣，坐落著一支油輪艦隊，從事著價值數十億美元的制裁石油貿易。

We have found what we believe to be the largest cluster of dark fleet vessels anywhere in the world.

我們發現了我們認為是世界上最大的黑暗艦隊船隻群。

We've just come into the beginning of the cluster.

我們剛剛進入集群的起始階段。

All around you can see oil tankers out of range of law enforcement.

四周都是執法人員射程之外的油輪。

Many of these ships gathered here in the South China Sea east of the Malaysian peninsula are part of what's known as the dark fleet, a network of ageing vessels that often operate without insurance and hide their location to move sanctioned oil.

這些聚集在馬來西亞半島以東南中國海的船隻中，有許多是所謂的 "黑暗艦隊 "的一部分，這是一個由老化船隻組成的網絡，它們通常在沒有保險的情況下營運，並隱藏自己的位置，以運送被準許的石油。

Extensive research, data analysis and eyewitness accounts lay bare the workings of an Asian maritime hub that helps hundreds of millions of barrels of illicit oil move east despite the risks.

廣泛的研究、數據分析和目擊者的描述揭示了這個亞洲海上樞紐的運作，它幫助數以億桶計的非法石油不顧風險地向東運輸。

It was about trying to establish how big this phenomenon is, how big this problem is and therefore how big the risks are.

這是為了確定這一現象有多大，問題有多大，是以風險有多大。

In 2023, a major accident occurred involving a dark fleet tanker.

2023 年，黑暗艦隊的一艘油輪發生了重大事故。

The Pablo was a tanker that was coming back from China.

巴勃羅號是一艘從中國返回的油輪。

When we later looked at the satellite images of the Pablo, we could see that the deck was basically burned through.

當我們後來查看巴勃羅號的衛星影像時，我們可以看到甲板基本上被燒穿了。

Three of the crew were lost, so it's a reminder that there is a very real human cost here.

三名船員喪生，這提醒我們，人類在這裡付出了巨大的代價。

The Pablo had been operating for 25 years, far longer than the average life of a legitimate tanker.

巴勃羅號已經運行了 25 年，遠遠超過了合法油輪的平均壽命。

It had no known insurer, meaning it lay stranded in the ocean for many months until Malaysia ultimately bore much of the recovery costs.

它沒有已知的承保人，這意味著它在海洋中擱淺了許多個月，直到馬來西亞最終承擔了大部分打撈費用。

Old ships are no longer scrapped at the rates that they used to be and they're in fact now used in the dark fleet by companies and organizations that are willing to break the rules.

舊船的報廢率不再像以前那樣高，事實上，它們現在被那些願意破壞規則的公司和組織用於黑暗艦隊。

In the past, the international group was insuring almost 95 plus percent of all the ships in the world.

過去，該國際集團幾乎為全球 95% 以上的船舶提供保險。

Now they're insuring about 80, 85 percent and that's dangerous.

現在，他們的投保率約為 80%、85%，這很危險。

The shadow fleet consists of very old ships.

影子艦隊由非常老舊的船隻組成。

There are plenty of accidents.

事故很多。

Shipping is a business full of risk.

航運是一項充滿風險的業務。

That's why you have insurance.

這就是你買保險的原因。

The Pablo was just one of many dark fleet vessels that transit through the waters east of Malaysia, some of the busiest on earth.

巴勃羅號只是在馬來西亞以東水域過境的眾多黑暗船隊船隻之一，那裡是地球上最繁忙的水域之一。

What we see here in Singapore is highly regulated.

我們在新加坡看到的是高度管制。

Hundreds of ships are passing here on a daily basis, up to 70,000 per year.

每天有數百艘船隻經過這裡，每年多達 7 萬艘。

But just nearby here, there are other places that ships go where it's less well regulated.

但就在這附近，還有其他一些地方的船舶管理較松。

We became aware of this flotilla in the end of 2023.

我們是在 2023 年底發現這支船隊的。

It was the size and the scale of the flotilla that kind of caught our attention.

船隊的大小和規模引起了我們的注意。

Importantly, it's outside territorial waters and in an area where countries have much more limited enforcement rights.

重要的是，這是在領海之外，而且是在各國執法權更為有限的地區。

Positioned midway between the oil exporters in the Persian Gulf and oil consumers like

位於波斯灣石油出口國和石油消費國（如

China, it's an ideal spot for ships from east and west to converge.

中國是東西方船隻彙集的理想地點。

Typically calm waters make transfers easier.

通常情況下，平靜的水域更便於轉運。

We've been following sanctioned oil for quite a long time and tracking that, we found that not only had that cluster grown, but also the number of ship to ship transfers, so these are transfers of oil done at sea, that number had increased steadily.

我們跟蹤制裁石油已經有相當長的時間，我們發現，不僅制裁石油集群在增長，而且船對船的轉移數量也在增長，是以，這些都是在海上進行的石油轉移，數量也在穩步增長。

The trade in oil subject to US sanctions has surged since 2022, fuelled by curbs on Russian exports, as well as restrictions reimposed on Iranian crude in 2018.

受美國製裁的石油貿易自 2022 年以來激增，俄羅斯出口受限以及 2018 年對伊朗原油重新實施的限制都起到了推波助瀾的作用。

A day before I got to office, everybody was saying Iran would be taking over the Middle

在我上任的前一天，所有人都在說伊朗將接管中東。

East.

東方。

It was just a question of when.

只是時間問題。

Now they're just looking to survive.

現在，他們只想活下去。

Not all the oil in this cluster and moving around this area is Iranian, but the vast majority is.

並不是這個油田群和在這個地區流動的所有石油都是伊朗的，但絕大多數是伊朗的。

Because of US sanctions on Iran, Iran really needs to sell its oil and really needs the revenue that comes from these sales.

由於美國對伊朗的制裁，伊朗確實需要出售石油，也確實需要從這些銷售中獲得收入。

Iran sells 90 plus percent of its oil to China, and in particular to private refiners in China.

伊朗 90% 以上的石油銷往中國，尤其是中國的私營煉油廠。

This is a multi-billion dollar trade.

這是一筆數十億美元的貿易。

In order to stay competitive, the Chinese refiners of course would like to procure the cheapest crude they can find.

為了保持競爭力，中國煉油廠當然希望採購到最便宜的原油。

And oftentimes the cheapest crude would be the ones that are restricted.

而最便宜的原油往往是那些受限制的原油。

It is a known truth in the maritime circles, in shipping circles, that this cluster exists.

在海事界、航運界，這個集群的存在是眾所周知的事實。

But I think what we were trying to do was really to put some scale around it.

但我認為，我們所要做的，其實是在它周圍設置一些規模。

How big is it?

有多大？

How big are these risks?

這些風險有多大？

How much oil is shifting through?

有多少石油在流動？

We've made our way out here today to try and take a closer look at just exactly how big this group of tankers, how big they are.

今天，我們來到這裡，試圖近距離觀察這群油輪到底有多大，它們有多大。

We're just going past Malaysia now, and then it's going to take us quite a few more hours to reach the point that we're after, which is where we saw a ship-to-ship transfer taking place yesterday on the satellite.

我們現在正經過馬來西亞，然後還需要幾個小時才能到達我們要去的地方，也就是我們昨天在衛星上看到進行船對船轉移的地方。

Just to be clear, a ship-to-ship transfer is not necessarily illegal.

需要說明的是，船對船的轉讓並不一定是非法的。

However, if it is done as it is here in outer waters, there are certainly some questions.

但是，如果按照外海的做法，肯定會有一些問題。

We'd really like to find a couple of vessels that are, I would say, emblematic of the Dark Fleet.

我們真的很想找到幾艘能代表黑暗艦隊的船隻。

We should have maybe three, four vessels of interest here, around here.

我們這裡應該有三、四艘感興趣的船隻，就在附近。

This is the start of the cluster, so this will be the busiest part.

這是群集的起點，是以這將是最繁忙的部分。

The Iranians are somewhere here, but we have to basically be lucky enough to find them.

伊朗人就在這裡的某個地方，但我們基本上必須足夠幸運才能找到他們。

When we started this project, we were looking at AIS data mainly, and then we realised that

當我們開始這個項目時，我們主要研究的是 AIS 數據，後來我們意識到

AIS is kind of not good enough, because a lot of these tankers, they don't want to be scrutinised, they don't want to be seen.

自動識別系統還不夠好，因為很多油輪不想被檢查，不想被看到。

They switch off their AISs for weeks on end, so over time, we started to overlay satellite data.

他們連續數週關閉自動識別系統，是以隨著時間的推移，我們開始疊加衛星數據。

What the satellite has enabled us to do is really examine the cluster, and we're able to, within that, count the number of ship-to-ship transfers that are happening.

這顆衛星使我們能夠真正地對集群進行檢查，並在此範圍內計算正在發生的船對船轉移的數量。

These are very distinctive shapes, extremely visible against the water.

這些形狀非常獨特，在水面上極為明顯。

Using almost five years of satellite imagery, Bloomberg News built an algorithm to detect all the instances where vessels adopted the distinctive ship-to-ship position.

彭博新聞社利用近五年的衛星影像，建立了一種算法來檢測船隻採用獨特的船對船位置的所有情況。

We've been able to show that that trade has been consistently increasing, which is something that I think the industry intuitively knew but couldn't really prove.

我們已經能夠證明這種貿易一直在持續增長，我認為這是業界直覺上知道但無法真正證明的事情。

Of all the ships passing through the area in 2020, 5% were involved in ship-to-ship transfer.

在 2020 年通過該地區的所有船隻中，5% 涉及船對船的轉運。

Between January and October 2024, this has risen to 10.3%.

在 2024 年 1 月至 10 月期間，這一比例上升到 10.3%。

The data suggests some 350 million barrels of oil changed hands here in the first nine months of 2024.

數據顯示，2024 年前九個月，約有 3.5 億桶石油在這裡易手。

That adds up to more than $20 billion.

加起來超過 200 億美元。

Okay, so a few are coming up.

好了，有幾個人要來了。

Are they tankers?

是油輪嗎？

Of the three, the one on the left is a tanker, I think.

在這三輛車中，我認為左邊那輛是油罐車。

Yeah.

是啊

There's just so much traffic, you forget how much actually goes through these waters.

這裡的交通量太大了，你會忘記有多少車輛真正通過這些水域。

Oh, where? Which one?

哦，在哪兒？哪一個？

Oh, there is, there is. There, there, there.

哦，有的，有的。那裡，那裡，那裡

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.

哦，是的，是的，是的。

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

是啊，是啊，是啊。

That's where we went.

我們就去了那裡。

That's where we went.

我們就去了那裡。

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.

哦，是的，是的，是的。

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.

哦，是的，是的，是的。

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

是啊，是啊，是啊。

That's where we went.

我們就去了那裡。

That's where we went.

我們就去了那裡。

Wow, found one.

哇，找到了一個。

Yeah.

是啊

Yeah.

是啊

We found two dark fleet vessels doing a ship-to-ship transfer, two super tankers.

我們發現兩艘黑暗艦隊的船隻正在進行船對船的轉運，這是兩艘超級油輪。

It's Winwin and Titan, so two vessels that are known to us and on our list.

是 Winwin 號和 Titan 號，這兩艘船我們都知道，也在我們的名單上。

When we looked at the map earlier this morning, these vessels were not here.

今早我們看地圖時，這些船隻並不在這裡。

So it's likely that they have their AIS transponders off, which again is fairly typical for dark fleet vessels.

是以，它們很可能關閉了 AIS 應答器，這也是黑暗艦隊船隻的典型特徵。

The Titan and the Winwin display every characteristic of the dark fleet.

泰坦號和 Winwin 號展現了黑暗艦隊的所有特徵。

The Titan is known to have transported Iranian oil, while the Winwin's sporadic signalling draws an impossibly linear journey from China to the South China Sea.

眾所周知，"泰坦 "號曾運送過伊朗石油，而 "溫雲 "號的零星信號則勾勒出從中國到南中國海的不可能的直線行程。

It's really interesting, as we come round the side, you can actually see the cables connecting them both, and the pipes that will transfer the crude over, and you can see that right through the middle of the vessels.

非常有趣的是，當我們繞到側面時，你可以看到連接它們的電纜，以及將原油輸送過來的管道，你可以看到這些管道從船隻中間穿過。

See, there's some protection to prevent them from crashing.

看，有一些保護措施可以防止它們崩潰。

In a ship-to-ship transfer, a number of safety precautions are in place to guard against accidents.

在船對船的轉運過程中，有一系列安全預防措施來防止事故發生。

You're supposed to have somebody on the vessel who is in charge of safety and of overseeing the ship-to-ship transfer.

船上應該有人負責安全和監督船與船之間的轉運。

We don't know, of course, whether these were in place, but we certainly have some questions.

當然，我們不知道這些措施是否到位，但我們肯定會有一些疑問。

You know, you can see clearly, Titan is a very, very old boat.

你可以清楚地看到，泰坦號是一艘非常非常古老的船。

It's 20-plus years old, look at it.

它已經有 20 多年的歷史了，看看它。

Rusty vessel, poorly maintained.

船隻鏽跡斑斑，維護不善。

They carry about two million barrels of oil each.

每艘船可運載約 200 萬桶石油。

I also see that someone is looking out and watching us from that deck up there.

我還看到有人在甲板上向外看，注視著我們。

Might be time to move now.

也許是時候搬家了。

Let's go!

我們走吧

Yeah.

是啊

Yeah, good to go.

是的，可以走了。

Full speed ahead.

全速前進

We know that if there is a leak from a vessel like this, there's two million barrels of oil.

我們知道，如果這樣一艘船發生洩漏，將有 200 萬桶石油洩漏。

That's just a huge amount, and if you compare that to the very small spill that happened in Singapore earlier this year, that was 400 tons.

這是一個巨大的數字，如果與今年早些時候發生在新加坡的 400 噸極小量洩漏事故相比。

I mean, that's just an absolute tiny fraction of what these vessels carry.

我的意思是，這只是這些船隻運載量的極小一部分。

As far as we know, almost nothing is being done to shut the flotilla down.

據我們所知，幾乎沒有採取任何行動來阻止船隊。

There's only so much that the Malaysian authorities, in particular the Coast Guard, can do with the resources they have.

馬來西亞當局，特別是海岸警衛隊，只能利用現有資源做這麼多。

They have many other maritime security challenges, illicit smuggling, people smuggling, illegal fishing.

他們還面臨許多其他海上安全挑戰，如非法走私、人口走私和非法捕魚。

This seemingly doesn't rank at the top of the list.

這似乎並不是榜首。

There is a big debate about how effective sanctions are and what sanctions effectiveness looks like.

關於制裁的效力如何以及制裁的效力是什麼樣的，存在著很大的爭議。

In an ideal world, if sanctions were to be fully enforced, it would be very difficult for Iran to bring its oil to the market.

在一個理想的世界裡，如果制裁得到全面執行，伊朗將很難將其石油推向市場。

But in reality, it is quite difficult to trace.

但實際上，這很難追溯。

But there are incentives not to entirely cut off Iran's oil supply.

但是，不完全切斷伊朗的石油供應也是有誘因的。

It is in nobody's interest to completely stop or curb the flow of Iranian, Venezuelan, and also Russian crude to the market, because these are very, very big and important producers of oil.

完全阻止或遏制伊朗、委內瑞拉以及俄羅斯原油流入市場不符合任何人的利益，因為這些國家都是非常、非常大、非常重要的石油生產國。

So it is in nobody's interest to actually completely cut off this flow and send prices skyrocketing.

是以，完全切斷這種流動並使價格飛漲，對任何人都沒有好處。

There are very few incentives for China to actively enforce U.S. sanctions.

中國積極執行美國製裁的動力微乎其微。

China's economy is still struggling, the refunders' margins are poor, they have every incentive to keep buying cheaper Iranian crude.

中國經濟仍在掙扎，退稅方的利潤微薄，他們完全有動力繼續購買更便宜的伊朗原油。

It's arguable that the increased use of sanctions by the United States has actually created a new market that those companies and organizations that are willing to break and avoid the sanctions are able to exploit the waters of this region to conduct their business.

可以說，美國越來越多地使用制裁實際上創造了一個新的市場，那些願意打破和規避制裁的公司和組織能夠利用這一地區的水域開展業務。

I don't think that sanctions are ineffective.

我不認為制裁是無效的。

I do think that they take a very long time to be effective and they take a lot of work.

我確實認為，它們需要很長時間才能奏效，而且需要付出大量的努力。

It depends on cooperation with countries, sharing of information, working together to ensure the overall safety of global trade and the shipping lanes, and especially the environment, and the seafarers themselves.

這取決於與各國的合作、資訊共享、共同努力，以確保全球貿易和航道的整體安全，特別是環境和海員自身的安全。

If there is an oil spill, then fully insured ships, we are also effectively uninsured.

如果發生漏油事故，那麼全額投保的船隻，我們實際上也是沒有投保的。

And that is a big risk.

這是一個很大的風險。

That makes the non-shadow fleet very scared and sceptical and rightly so.

這讓非陰影艦隊非常害怕和懷疑，這也是理所當然的。

My fellow Americans, we will be instituting the highest level of economic sanction.

美國同胞們，我們將實施最高級別的經濟制裁。

The United States no longer makes empty threats.

美國不再發出空洞的威脅。

Donald Trump, having re-imposed sanctions on Iran during his first term, has said he will renew his maximum pressure campaign to starve the country of the oil revenue it depends on.

唐納德-特朗普（Donald Trump）在其第一任期內重新對伊朗實施了制裁，並表示他將再次對伊朗施加最大壓力，以剝奪該國賴以生存的石油收入。

This flotilla of aging tankers shows that's easier said than done.

這批老舊油輪表明，說起來容易做起來難。

When you have too many sanctions but not enough enforcement, the illicit actors will exploit that, they know that, and they will carry on with the activities.

如果制裁過多，但執行力度不夠，非法行為者就會利用這一點，他們知道這一點，就會繼續開展活動。

And the illicit activities will grow and therefore the risks will grow.

非法活動會越來越多，是以風險也會越來越大。

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