Name: 【BBC】普丁宣佈俄羅斯可能會發動核打擊以應對常規攻擊 (Putin declares Russia could launch nuclear strike in response to conventional attack | BBC News)
Uploaded: 2024-11-21T21:01:30.000Z
Duration: 9 min 15 s

情態副詞

Just a day after the U.S. finally gave permission for Ukraine to fire American long-range missiles into Russia, Kiev has done so.

就在美國最終允許烏克蘭向俄羅斯發射美國遠程飛彈的一天之後，基輔已經這樣做了。

基礎被動語態

Its attack on a target within Russia's recognized territorial borders was confirmed by both Moscow and by officials in Washington.

莫斯科和華盛頓的官員都證實了它對俄羅斯公認領土邊界內目標的襲擊。

轉承詞

The change in U.S. policy comes at a critical time, with the Biden administration due to give way to that of Donald. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that they will react accordingly.

隨著拜登政府即將讓位於唐納德政府，美國的政策變化正值關鍵時刻。俄羅斯外交部長謝爾蓋-拉夫羅夫（Sergey Lavrov）表示，他們將做出相應的反應。

Today marks a thousand days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and this latest development is being watched very carefully by world leaders at the G20 Summit in Brazil.

今天是俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭一千天，在巴西舉行的 G20 峰會上，世界各國領導人都在密切關注這一最新進展。

More on that in a moment, but first our Russia editor Steve Rosenberg has this report from Moscow. Breaking news on Russian TV.

稍後會有更多報道，但首先我們的俄羅斯編輯史蒂夫-羅森伯格（Steve Rosenberg）將從莫斯科為您帶來報道。俄羅斯電視臺的即時新聞

Claims that Ukraine had fired six American Atakams missiles into Russia's Bryansk region, though no reports of casualties.

聲稱烏克蘭向俄羅斯布良斯克地區發射了六枚美國 "阿塔卡姆 "飛彈，但沒有人員傷亡的報道。

The response from Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the missile attack was a signal that the West wants to escalate the conflict.

俄羅斯外交部長謝爾蓋-拉夫羅夫迴應說，飛彈襲擊是西方希望衝突升級的信號。

Published today, a Kremlin decree lowering the nuclear threshold.

今天發佈的克里姆林宮法令降低了核門檻。

Russia now reserving the right to go nuclear even if attacked by conventional weapons, if such an attack threatens Russia's sovereignty or territorial integrity.

俄羅斯現在保留即使受到常規武器攻擊，如果這種攻擊威脅到俄羅斯的主權或領土完整，也可以使用核武器的權利。

President Putin had promised changes to the nuclear doctrine weeks ago.

普京總統幾周前曾承諾修改核理論。

A clear signal to Europe and America not to let Ukraine strike Russia with long-range missiles.

向歐洲和美國發出明確信號，不要讓烏克蘭用遠程飛彈打擊俄羅斯。

Russian nuclear exercises are warning to the West not to cross Russia's red lines.

俄羅斯的核演習是在警告西方不要越過俄羅斯的紅線。

But the key question in Russia's war on Ukraine, would Vladimir Putin use a nuclear weapon?

但俄羅斯對烏克蘭戰爭的關鍵問題是，弗拉基米爾-普京會使用核武器嗎？

I think it's quite serious because even Putin doesn't know whether he can use nukes or he can't.

我認為這很嚴重，因為就連普京也不知道他到底能不能使用核武器。

We know that he's a very emotional man and the decision to begin this war was also an emotional step.

我們知道，他是一個非常情緒化的人，決定發動這場戰爭也是一個情緒化的步驟。

The lowering of the nuclear threshold does not mean that Vladimir Putin is about to press the nuclear button.

降低核門檻並不意味著弗拉基米爾-普京即將按下核按鈕。

These changes are designed, I think, at the very least, to put pressure on Western leaders who will now have to decide, is Putin bluffing or not? Earlier, at the Museum of Victory, the Kremlin kick-started commemorations for next year's 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.

我認為，這些變化的目的至少是向西方領導人施壓，他們現在必須判斷普京是否在虛張聲勢？早些時候，克里姆林宮在勝利博物館啟動了明年二戰結束80週年的紀念活動。

Not a word was said here about the 1,000 days of Russia's war in Ukraine.

對於俄羅斯在烏克蘭的 1000 天戰爭，這裡隻字未提。

A war which, for the Kremlin, hasn't gone at all to plan, but which it remains determined to win.

對克里姆林宮來說，這場戰爭完全沒有按計劃進行，但它仍然決心贏得這場戰爭。

Steve Rosenberg, BBC News, Moscow. So what is the situation on the ground in Ukraine in terms of territory gained by Russia?

史蒂夫-羅森伯格（Steve Rosenberg），BBC 新聞，莫斯科。就俄羅斯獲得的領土而言，烏克蘭當地的局勢如何？

I'm joined by BBC Verify's Nick Erdley.  Nick.

下面請 BBC Verify 的 Nick Erdley 為您播報。  尼克

Thank you, Rita. 1,000 days of war, I've seen a number of ups and downs for Ukraine, but analysis of the picture since the start of this year shows things are going far better for Russia.

謝謝你，麗塔。戰爭持續了 1000 天，我看到烏克蘭的局勢起起伏伏，但分析今年年初以來的情況，俄羅斯的情況要好得多。

Let me show you the picture for 2024, based on analysis by the Institute for the Study of War.

讓我根據戰爭研究所的分析，向你們展示一下 2024 年的情況。

If we fast-forward to September and look at this area here, you can see Russia has made inroads.

如果我們把時間快進到 9 月份，看看這個地區，你會發現俄羅斯已經取得了進展。

This might look like a small amount on the map, but it's a significant amount of territory on the ground.

這在地圖上看似很小，但在地面上卻是一塊重要的領土。

And that advance has continued in Russia has seized nearly 2,000 square kilometers of territory, just over 1,000 square miles.

這種推進仍在繼續，俄羅斯已經佔領了近 2000 平方公里的領土，剛剛超過 1000 平方英里。

That's nearly six times more than it did in the whole of 2023.  Let me show you what all of this means in practice.

這幾乎是 2023 年全年的六倍。  讓我來告訴你這一切意味著什麼。

這裡是烏克蘭東部的庫羅科夫。

And if we show you this video, we can see the devastation.

如果我們給你看這段視頻，就能看到破壞的程度。

This is a key town Russia is trying to capture.

這是俄羅斯試圖佔領的一個重鎮。

It's come under heavy bombardment recently as part of the Russian offensive.

作為俄羅斯攻勢的一部分，它最近遭到了猛烈轟炸。

You can see the damage that that's caused.

There's been heavy fighting in the Kursk region of Russia, too.

俄羅斯庫爾斯克地區也發生了激烈戰鬥。

Ukrainian troops captured, you can see it here, a large amount of territory in August.

烏克蘭軍隊在八月份佔領了大片領土，你可以在這裡看到。

But Russian forces have now retaken, as you can see here, around half of that.

但俄羅斯軍隊現在已經奪回了其中的一半左右。

All of these gains have come at a cost for Russia.

所有這些成果都讓俄羅斯付出了代價。

And this is important with President Trump's return to the White House looming.

特朗普總統重返白宮在即，這一點非常重要。

Mr. Trump has said he can end the war in a day.

特朗普先生說，他可以在一天之內結束戰爭。

But if there were peace talks, territory will be an important bargaining chip.

但如果舉行和談，領土將是一個重要的談判籌碼。

And some analysts think that Russia's recent gains will give it a stronger hand in any potential discussions.

一些分析人士認為，俄羅斯最近取得的成就將使其在任何可能的討論中佔據更有利的地位。

Rita.  Nick, thank you very much.  Well, the G20 world leaders are meeting in Brazil, as you heard.

麗塔  尼克，非常感謝。  正如你們所聽到的，G20 世界領導人正在巴西舉行會議。

And President Zelensky of Ukraine had some bitter words for them, making clear his frustration tonight at their lack of response to President Putin's change of Russia's nuclear doctrine.

烏克蘭總統澤連斯基對他們說了一些刻薄的話，今晚他明確表示對他們對普京總統改變俄羅斯核理論缺乏反應感到沮喪。

Well, in a moment, we'll speak to our chief international correspondent, Lisa Doucette.

稍後，我們將採訪首席國際記者麗莎-杜塞特。

But first to Vicky Young, who is in Rio for us.

但首先請為我們在里約報道的維姬-楊。

And Vicky, what have leaders there been saying?  Well, Rita, there's a pretty wide gulf here between the G20 countries in their approach to Ukraine, particularly how critical to be of Russia.

維姬，二十國集團領導人都說了些什麼？  麗塔，二十國集團（G20）國家在對待烏克蘭問題上存在很大分歧，尤其是對俄羅斯的責備態度。

So that joint declaration that they put out at the end of these summits, well, the language in that is weaker than the same time last year at the equivalent summit.

是以，他們在峰會結束時發表的聯合聲明，其措辭比去年同期的同等峰會要弱。

So you can understand maybe why President Zelensky is pretty frustrated by that.  When it comes to the British Prime Minister, he said that at every opportunity during this summit, he has raised the issue of Ukraine with the other leaders, saying that they really should have what they need for as long as they need in order to win this war.

是以，你也許可以理解澤連斯基總統對此感到沮喪的原因。  談到英國首相時，他說在這次峰會期間，他一有機會就會向其他領導人提出烏克蘭問題，說為了贏得這場戰爭，只要他們需要，他們就應該得到他們所需要的東西。

Now, whether that means that British-made missiles will end up being used in the same way as the American ones have been, well, we don't know.

現在，這是否意味著英國製造的飛彈最終會像美國飛彈那樣被使用，我們不得而知。

He says that's operational, and all it would do is help the Russians.

他說這是可操作的，只會幫助俄羅斯人。

He was also asked, though, about those comments from Russia about how and when they might use nuclear weapons.

不過，他也被問及俄羅斯關於如何以及何時使用核武器的評論。

There's irresponsible rhetoric coming from Russia, and that is not going to deter our support for Ukraine.

俄羅斯發表了不負責任的言論，但這不會阻止我們對烏克蘭的支持。

That's 1,000 days of Russian aggression, 1,000 days of sacrifice in Ukraine.

這就是俄羅斯侵略的 1000 天，烏克蘭犧牲的 1000 天。

Now, Kistama, they're putting the blame firmly on President Putin, on Russia, saying they are the aggressor and saying they could just stop this war now by stopping that illegal invasion.

現在，基斯塔馬，他們把責任牢牢地推給了普京總統，推給了俄羅斯，說他們是侵略者，說他們現在就可以停止這場戰爭，停止非法入侵。

Now, earlier, Downing Street actually called the Russian government depraved.

早些時候，唐寧街實際上稱俄羅斯政府墮落。

So you can hear there that the rhetoric is really escalating.

所以，你可以聽到，言辭確實在升級。

The fear amongst many leaders across the world is that the situation on the battlefield will escalate, too.

全世界許多領導人都擔心戰場局勢也會升級。

Well, Lise, we've seen Nick show us the fast land grab by Russia.

好了，莉薩，我們已經看到尼克向我們展示了俄羅斯快速搶佔土地的情況。

Steve earlier talked about the nuclear threat.

史蒂夫早些時候談到了核威脅。

What does all this add up to?  Well, Rita, tonight, understandably, a lot of the focus is on this nuclear threat, and it's not reassuring to hear the Russian columnist in Steve's piece frame it as an this risk.

所有這些加起來是什麼意思？  麗塔，今晚，可以理解的是，很多焦點都集中在核威脅上，聽到史蒂夫文章中的俄羅斯專欄作家把它說成是一種風險，這並不讓人放心。

But President Putin has many other ways to ratchet up the cost for the West and is already using them.

但普京總統還有許多其他方法來增加西方國家的代價，而且已經在使用。

As you've been hearing this week, the sabotage of undersea cables by Germany, then Poland is talking about the planting of bombs on planes, and so on.

正如你們本週所聽到的，德國破壞海底電纜，然後波蘭又說要在飛機上放置炸彈，等等。

But the biggest question, of course, is what cost, what greater cost is Russia going to impose on Ukraine?

當然，最大的問題是，俄羅斯要讓烏克蘭付出什麼樣的代價、更大的代價？

As we've also been hearing, Ukraine is very much on the back foot, on the front lines, and is hoping that striking deeper inside Russia is going to strengthen its position in this war and in any negotiating tables which seem likely to emerge.

正如我們所聽到的，烏克蘭在前線處於非常不利的地位，它希望深入俄羅斯境內的打擊行動能加強其在這場戰爭中的地位，以及在可能出現的任何談判桌上的地位。

But it may not work, and especially when President-elect Donald Trump moves into the White House with his threat to end the war.

但這可能行不通，尤其是噹噹選總統唐納德-特朗普入主白宮並威脅結束戰爭時。

And so the big question now is what happens when President Trump takes power?

是以，現在最大的問題是，特朗普總統上臺後會發生什麼？

Will he reverse this decision regarding the That must be on President Putin's mind as well.

普京總統一定也在考慮他是否會改變關於 "Thomas "號的決定。

 So you have two unpredictable presidents at this moment of mounting risk.

是以，在這個風險不斷增加的時刻，有兩位難以預測的總統。