And if you're looking for your favorite brands, outlets may be what you're seeking.

如果你正在尋找自己喜愛的品牌，outlet 可能就是你要找的地方。

The outlet consumers is an aspirational customer, which a customer that is looking for the brands that they love at the best possible value.

Outlet 的消費者是有追求的顧客，他們希望以儘可能高的價值購買自己喜愛的品牌。

And that's what draws them into our shopping centers.

這就是吸引他們進入我們購物中心的原因。

It's a big industry valued at about 65 billion dollars, spread over 342 centers all over the country in 2023.

這是一個價值約 650 億美元的大產業，到 2023 年將遍佈全國 342 個中心。

But record-breaking inflation has affected that consumer's ability to spend.

但破紀錄的通貨膨脹影響了消費者的消費能力。

While the industry as a whole is nearing full recovery, outlets are far behind compared to 2019.

雖然整個行業已接近全面復甦，但與 2019 年相比，outlet 還遠遠落後。

Outlet malls are discretionary.

Outlet 購物中心可自行決定。

A lot of people go there to find value.

很多人去那裡是為了尋找價值。

If you're a bit constrained, if you are finding finances are a bit tight, you don't necessarily make those trips where you don't have a purchase in mind.

如果你有點拮据，如果你發現經濟有點緊張，你就不一定會去那些沒有購買計劃的地方旅行。

Outlets are also taking a hit from the rise of e-commerce giants like Shein and Amazon.

此外，Shein 和亞馬遜等電子商務巨頭的崛起也給 outlet 帶來了衝擊。

So why are outlet malls so behind the rest of the industry?

那麼，Outlet 購物中心為何如此落後於其他行業呢？

And can they go back to the allure of what they once were?

他們還能回到曾經的誘惑嗎？

When outlets first arrived in the 1930s, out-of-season, overrun or faulty apparel were sold at a discount to employees.

1930 年代，outlet 剛出現時，過季、超期或有瑕疵的服裝都會以折扣價賣給員工。

They expanded to the general public by the 1970s.

到 1970 年代，他們的活動範圍擴大到普通大眾。

Once they realized that the general public might be interested as well, they started opening it up to other customers.

當他們意識到普通大眾也可能對此感興趣時，就開始向其他客戶開放。

So over time, that concept grew a lot.

隨著時間的推移，這個概念得到了很大的發展。

They, you know, instead of them being right next door to factories, they started being placed in far-flung locations, kind of like miles outside of city centers.

它們不再緊鄰工廠，而是被安置在離市中心數英里遠的地方。

Outlets expanded rapidly, much like its indoor mall counterparts.

Outlet 迅速擴張，就像其室內購物中心一樣。

By 1988, there were an estimated 113 outlet malls coinciding with the rise of commercial real estate.

到 1988 年，隨著商業地產的興起，outlet 購物中心的數量估計達到 113 家。

Around that time period, there were changes in the tax laws, which created sort of like this very positive period for REITs to go public.

大約在那段時間，稅法發生了變化，為房地產投資信託基金的上市創造了一個非常積極的時期。

REITs are real estate investment trusts.

REITs 是房地產投資信託基金。

They're basically real estate companies that own and operate income-producing real estate, like in this case malls and outlets.

它們基本上都是房地產公司，擁有並經營可產生收入的房地產，比如這裡所說的購物中心和 outlet。

In the early 90s, they started launching IPOs to raise capital.

1990 年代初，它們開始進行首次公開募股，以籌集資金。

Right around that 1993 period, you know, you saw Simon and Tanger go public.

就在 1993 年前後，Simon 和 Tanger 相繼上市。(Simon 及 Tanger 為outelt 購物中心）

There was still also, you know, a significant amount of growth in the overall retail sector and demand for new retail concepts.

整個零售業仍在大幅增長，對新零售概念的需求也在增長。

Major retailers capitalized on the demand like Gap, who launched its outlet division in 1994.

大型零售商抓住了這一需求，如 Gap 於 1994 年推出了 outlet 部門。

By 1997, more than one-third of Americans shopped at outlets.

到 1997 年，超過三分之一的美國人在 outlet 購物。

The industry was now worth about $12 billion.

目前，該行業的產值約為 120 億美元。

By the 2010s, the indoor malls were on a decline that benefited other categories like outlets.

到了 2010 年代，室內購物中心開始走下坡路，而 outlet 等其他業態則從中受益。

The department stores have really seen a marked decline over time.

隨著時間的推移，百貨商店確實出現了明顯的衰退。

Department stores were once the largest channel of retail in the U.S.

百貨商店曾是美國最大的零售管道。

And what that means is people, rather than just going to the big malls for things they need to buy, they spread their spend a lot more thinly across other destinations.

這就意味著，人們不再只去大商場購買需要的東西，而是把消費分散到其他地方。

And that's been very helpful to the outlet malls.

這對 outlet 購物中心很有幫助。

It's easier and less costly to build an outdoor mall or outlet.

建造室外購物中心或 outelt 更容易，成本也更低。

Also, if we look at the demand side of the equation, department stores have been consolidating and shrinking for decades now.

此外，從需求方面來看，百貨公司幾十年來一直在進行整合和收縮。

And that's been very helpful to the outlet malls because outlet malls tend to be quite robust in terms of having very strong occupancy rates, having brands that people want to buy, and they've become a real destination.

這對 outlet 購物中心非常有幫助，因為 outlet 購物中心往往非常穩健，擁有非常高的入住率，擁有人們想要購買的品牌，成為真正的購物目的地。

The decline of the department store wasn't all good news for outlets.

百貨商店的衰落對 outlet 來說並不全是好消息。

More than 13,000 retail stores filed for bankruptcy in 2017, nearly four times the year prior.

2017 年申請破產的零售店超過 13000 家，幾乎是前一年的四倍。

Access to capital became nearly impossible and share prices saw big drops.

幾乎不可能獲得資金，股價大幅下跌。

As bankruptcy slowed, yet another catastrophe ensued, the pandemic.

隨著破產速度放緩，另一場災難「新冠疫情」接踵而至。

And even as the world re-emerged, record high inflation and an onslaught of highly competitive e-commerce sites have made it hard for retail to get back on its feet.

即使世界重新崛起，創紀錄的高通膨率和競爭激烈的電子商務網站的衝擊也使零售業難以恢復元氣。

But of course, if you look at it from 2019, it is a very changeable period because we went through a pandemic which was highly disruptive. We had a boom year in the aftermath.

當然，如果從 2019 年來看，這是一個非常多變的時期，因為我們經歷了一場破壞性極大的疫情。之後，我們迎來了繁榮的一年。

Then we had hefty inflation.

然後，我們又經歷了嚴重的通貨膨脹。

Now we've got a more constrained consumer.

現在，我們的消費者更加拮据了。

So condensed into that five year period, you've got an awful lot of differing conditions.

在這五年時間裡，你會遇到很多不同的情況。

And an awful lot of change.

而且變化非常大。

By 2022, things started to change.

到 2022 年，情況開始發生變化。

As supply chain disruptions eased, it contributed to excess inventory for retailers.

隨著供應鏈中斷的緩解，零售商庫存過剩的情況也有所緩解。

Outlets benefited.

Outelt 受益。

It's been pretty difficult for retailers to navigate all of that very rapid change over a short period of time, even if trading conditions have been quite reasonable.

對於零售商來說，要在短時間內駕馭所有這些快速變化是相當困難的，即使貿易條件一直相當合理。

So retailers have had to be really fleet of foot to adapt to all of these changing circumstances.

零售商必須非常敏捷地適應所有這些不斷變化的情況。

REITs like Simon Property Group or SPG and Tanger Outlets are two of the largest in the industry, operating nearly half of the outlets in the country. In Q1 2024, Simon Property Group generated $1.3 billion from lease revenue, a near 2% increase from Q1 2019.

Simon 地產集團或 SPG 和 Tanger Outlets 等房地產投資信託公司是業內最大的兩家公司，經營著全國近一半的 outlet。2024 年第一季度，Simon 地產集團的租賃收入為 13 億美元，比 2019 年第一季度增長了近 2%。

Occupancy rates were at 95.5%, up 1% from the same quarter the year prior.

入住率為 95.5%，比去年同期增長了 1%。

The lowest that they got in the pandemic was 91%, and now they've been coming back maybe a little bit more slowly.

疫情時的最低比例是 91%，現在他們的恢復速度可能更慢一些。

But, you know, this is understandable because they have a much larger base.

但是，你知道，這是可以理解的，因為他們有更大的基礎。

They have 200 centers.

他們有 200 個購物中心。

Tanger has about 40.

Tanger 大約有 40 家。

Tanger, whose portfolio consists solely of outlets, saw Q1 revenue close to pre-pandemic levels.

Tanger 的投資組合僅包括 outlet，其第一季度的收入接近疫情的水準。

The company acquired three new outlets and entered a strategic partnership to manage and operate a new location in 2023.

公司收購了三家新分店，並建立了戰略合作伙伴關係，以便在 2023 年管理和營運一家新分店。

Both companies saw stock prices perform over the past three years.

這兩家公司的股價在過去三年中都有所表現。

In 2022, you started to see Tanger outperform both Simon and the RMZ due to some operational changes that were made as a result of management changes.

2022 年，由於管理層的變動，Tanger 在營運方面做出了一些改變，其業績開始超過 Simon 和 RMZ。

I would say that while Simon's stock has underperformed on a relative basis compared to the REIT index, you've still seen the stock do well on an absolute basis year-to-date as they are generating growth from a same store and earnings perspective.

我想說的是，雖然 Simon 公司股票與房地產投資信託指數相比相對錶現不佳，但從今年迄今為止的絕對值來看，Simon 公司股票仍然表現良好，因為從同店經營和盈利的角度來看，Simon 公司正在實現增長。

One of the most unique things about the business of outlets is that REITs have two customers, the shoppers and the retailers.

Outlet 業務最獨特的一點是，房地產投資信託基金有兩個客戶，即購物者和零售商。

Threatening the balance of keeping both happy is a delicate one.

威脅到保持兩者幸福的平衡是一個微妙的問題。

Many are trying to reduce store count and average store size.

許多企業都在努力減少門店數量和門店平均規模。

At the same time, the competition from e-commerce is getting more fierce as consumer behavior, especially younger shoppers, favor online shopping. E-commerce sales are poised to hit 41% of the total global retail sales by 2027.

與此同時，隨著消費者行為，尤其是年輕購物者對網上購物的青睞，來自電子商務的競爭也日趨激烈。到 2027 年，電子商務銷售額有望達到全球零售總額的 41%。

Online marketplaces like Amazon and Shein generated $8.9 billion and $8.1 billion, respectively, in 2023.

2023 年，亞馬遜和 Shein 等線上市場的收入分別為 89 億美元和 81 億美元。

The rise of e-commerce, especially some of the discount e-commerce platforms, all of those things provide some potential headwinds to outlet malls.

電子商務的興起，尤其是一些折扣電子商務平臺的興起，所有這些都給奧特萊斯購物中心帶來了一些潛在的不利因素。

And I think that they're things that outlet malls are really going to have to try and respond to over the next few years.

我認為在未來幾年，outlet 購物中心必須努力應對這些問題。

The lines between online and stores are very blurred.

網絡和商店之間的界限非常模糊。

You know, no one wants to sit only at home all day and exclusively order stuff.

要知道，沒有人願意整天只坐在家裡訂購東西。

Off their couch, which, you know, the pandemic made very clear, people want to get out, have a reason to get dressed, shop, eat, play. And these are all experiences that, you know, malls and outlets have gotten better at providing.

疫情清楚地表明，人們希望走出家門，有理由穿衣、購物、吃飯、玩耍。要知道，商場和 outlet 在提供這些體驗方面已經做得越來越好了。

There are a few ways REITs can combat competition, according to analysts.

分析師認為，房地產投資信託基金有幾種應對競爭的方法。

One is creating omni-channel capabilities like browsing online and picking up in-store.

一是創建全管道功能，如線上瀏覽和店內取貨。

Another is making shopping an experience with great food options and entertainment.

另一個方面是通過豐富的美食選擇和娛樂活動讓購物成為一種體驗。

What Simon is doing right now is they're really leaning into an experiential model.

Simon 現在正在做的是，他們傾向於體驗式模式。

So the mall is no longer just this place where you go to buy a couple of shirts and T-shirts and pants and things like that.

購物中心不再只是買幾件襯衫、T恤衫和褲子之類的地方。

It's a place that you go to hang out, to spend your afternoon at.

這是你去閒逛、消磨下午時光的地方。

You're going to see outdoor spaces.

你會看到戶外空間。

You're going to see these kind of lovely gardens and plazas and a place that you can enjoy lunch with your family.

你會看到這些可愛的花園和廣場，還有一個可以與家人共進午餐的地方。

You know, recently I was at a Simon mall and I had a margarita in the food court.

最近我去 Simon 購物中心，在美食廣場喝了一杯瑪格麗塔酒。

I mean, this is not the malls of the 90s that we all grew up in.

我的意思是，這已經不是我們在其中長大的 90 年代的商場了。

People can sit on the couch and shop all day if that's what they choose to do.

如果人們願意，可以整天坐在沙發上購物。

So you really have to be special and you have to provide things not only for the shopper, but for that carload of people that come with the shopper.

Outelt 必須與眾不同，不僅要為購物者提供東西，還要為與購物者一起來的一車人提供東西。

But there are risks for retailers, too.

但零售商也有風險。

Some retailers like Gap and Nike are heavily invested in outlets.

一些零售商，如 Gap 和 Nike，在 outlet 上投入了大量資金。

About 85 percent of Gap and Banana Republic and 60 percent of Nike's U.S. stores are factory locations.

Gap 和 Banana Republic 大約 85% 以及 Nike 美國商店 60% 都是工廠所在地。

In Q1 2024, the Gap and Banana Republic brought in an estimated $896 million for U.S. sales, 3 percent up from the year prior.

2024 年第一季度，Gap 和 Banana Republic 在美國的銷售額估計為 8.96 億美元，比上年增長 3%。

I think it signifies a problem with the main brand.

我認為這意味著主品牌出了問題。

I think it tells you that they are struggling to sell at full price because the value proposition isn't right.

我認為，這說明他們在努力以全價銷售，因為價值主張並不正確。

Maybe the brand isn't attuned.

也許是品牌不適應。

Maybe the products aren't quite right because the consumer is willing to spend on that brand at a lower price point, but they're not willing to spend at a mainstream, fuller price point.

也許產品不太合適，因為消費者願意花較低的價格購買該品牌的產品，但不願意花主流的、較高的價格購買。

Another risk for outlets, jumping too deep into luxury, especially as the median household income for outlet shoppers are a bit lower compared to other categories.

Outlet 的另一個風險是過於深入奢侈品領域，尤其是 outlet 購物者的家庭收入中位數與其他類別相比略低。

Still, analysts like Neil Saunders are bullish on outlets' future.

不過，尼爾-桑德斯等分析師還是看好 outlet 的未來。

I think outlets have a pretty secure future, but there's no doubt the market is more competitive.

我認為 outlet 的未來很有保障，但毫無疑問，市場競爭更加激烈。

There is more value for money out there across all of the offers in retail, including the mainstream malls, including strip malls with off price.

零售業的所有產品都更物有所值，包括主流購物中心，包括折扣購物中心。

So outlet malls are going to have to work harder, but I think they still have a very important role to play in the retail ecosystem.

Outlet 購物中心必須更加努力，但我認為它們在零售生態系統中仍然扮演著非常重要的角色。