NBC News' Steve Kornacki is at the big board.

NBC 新聞的史蒂夫-科納基（Steve Kornacki）正在大板上。

So Steve, we don't have a lot of data yet, but we do have some new numbers from the CBSU GovPoll over the weekend.

史蒂夫，我們還沒有很多數據，但我們從上週末的CBSU政府民調中得到了一些新數據。

This is just an immediate snapshot following the debate, but what does it tell us?

這只是辯論結束後的一個縮影，但它能告訴我們什麼呢？

Yeah, I mean, everybody's waiting for sort of a definitive poll to come out.

是的，我的意思是，每個人都在等待一個明確的民意調查結果。

We don't have that yet, but we've had a couple now.

現在還沒有，但已經有幾個了。

There's another one this morning that looks very similar to what I'm going to show you from this CBSU GovPoll, and they asked a couple questions here.

今天上午還有一個看起來與我要向你們展示的CBSU GovPoll非常相似的民調，他們在這裡問了幾個問題。

Let's show you this first of all.

讓我們先來看看這個。

They asked a general question, should Biden, this is just in general, should he be running for president?

他們問了一個籠統的問題：拜登是否應該（這只是籠統地問）競選總統？

They've asked that throughout the year.

他們全年都在問這個問題。

Back in February, 37% of voters said that Biden should be running for president.

今年 2 月，37% 的選民認為拜登應該競選總統。

Now, right after the debate, they have that number dropping to just 28%.

現在，就在辯論結束後，他們發現這個數字降到了 28%。

By comparison, they asked the same question about Donald Trump post-debate.

相比之下，他們在辯論後對唐納德-特朗普提出了同樣的問題。

The number is 46%.

這個數字是 46%。

Now, more specifically, in response to the debate, they asked this, what should Biden do right now in the wake of this debate?

更具體地說，針對這次辯論，他們提出了這樣一個問題：在這次辯論之後，拜登現在應該做些什麼？

And in this CBS poll, 64%, basically two-thirds of the electorate said he should step aside.

在哥倫比亞廣播公司的這次民調中，64%，基本上三分之二的選民認為他應該下臺。

And I think what's particularly troubling for Biden in that number, not just the fact that it's two-thirds, is look at within his own party.

我認為，拜登在這一數字中尤其感到不安的，不僅僅是三分之二的支持率，還有他所在黨派的支持率。

This isn't just his political opponents saying he should get out of the race.

這不僅僅是他的政治對手說他應該退出競選。

This is worry within his own party, concern within his own party, 45% of Democrats saying that Biden should step aside.

45%的民主黨人認為拜登應該讓位。

Obviously, that performance, I think, just reinforcing and maybe even increasing in terms of its potency.

顯然，我認為，這種表現只是在加強，甚至可能會增強其效力。

The main concern or one of the main concerns we've seen over and over when it comes to Biden, and that is his age.

說到拜登，我們反覆看到的主要問題或主要問題之一就是他的年齡。

This is a Gallup poll just before the debate.

這是辯論前的蓋洛普民意調查。

And already going into the debate, 67% of voters said they considered Biden too old to be president.

而在辯論開始前，67% 的選民已經表示，他們認為拜登年紀太大，不適合當總統。

That's 30 points higher than the number for Donald Trump.

這比唐納德-特朗普的數字高出 30 個百分點。

And just take a look at the other oldest nominees in history.

再看看歷史上其他最年長的提名者吧。

John McCain in 2008, Dole in 1996, Reagan in both of his campaigns.

2008 年的約翰-麥凱恩、1996 年的多爾、兩次競選的里根。

The number was somewhere in the 30s, even the 20s for Reagan.

這個數字大約在 30 多歲，里根甚至在 20 多歲。

That Biden number is a number we've never seen for any candidate before.

拜登的這一數字是我們從未見過的。

And I will say, as we wait for definitive polling, we do have one poll that has now asked the horse race question after the debate, asking Biden versus Trump after the debate, who are you for?

我要說的是，在我們等待確切民調的時候，確實有一項民調在辯論後提出了賽馬問題，問拜登和特朗普在辯論後你支持誰？

It's just from one state.

這只是一個州的情況。

It's from New Hampshire.

來自新罕布什爾州。

But in that New Hampshire poll, this is out just a couple of minutes ago.

但在新罕布什爾州的民調中，這是幾分鐘前剛剛出爐的。

Trump leads by two points in the new New Hampshire poll.

在新罕布什爾州的最新民調中，特朗普領先兩個百分點。

If you can read my writing, Trump plus two.

如果你能讀懂我的文字，特朗普加二。

And the critical thing there is in 2020, Biden carried New Hampshire by 7.5 points.

最關鍵的是，在2020年，拜登在新罕布什爾州取得了7.5個百分點的領先優勢。

So we don't have a pre-debate poll from St.

是以，我們沒有聖彼得堡大學的辯論前民意調查。

Anselm was the pollster here.

安塞姆是這裡的民意調查員。

Their last one had been in December.

上一次是在 12 月。

They had Biden up 10 then.

當時他們認為拜登領先 10 分。

This is their first poll since December.

這是自 12 月以來的首次民意調查。

But at least compared to the 2020 result in New Hampshire, their poll just after this debate is a pretty big shift.

但至少與2020年新罕布什爾州的結果相比，他們在辯論後的民調是一個相當大的轉變。

Yeah, that's certainly a warning sign for the Biden campaign.

對拜登競選團隊來說，這無疑是一個警示信號。

So Steve, what about the alternatives?

那麼史蒂夫，替代方案如何？

What do we know about feelings for Vice President Kamala Harris?

我們對副總統卡馬拉-哈里斯的感情瞭解多少？

Yeah.

是啊

And you just heard, you know, Mike taking you through all of the sort of political machinations that are involved there.

你剛才也聽到了，邁克帶你瞭解了那裡所有的政治陰謀。

But here's the dilemma for Democrats.

但民主黨人的困境就在於此。

You could just see it in the numbers.

從數字上就能看出來。

You know, take the basic question.

你知道，就拿最基本的問題來說吧。

You know, it's a good measure of every politician, favorable, unfavorable.

你知道，這是對每個政治家的一個很好的衡量標準，有利的，不利的。

Two recent polls asked it about Joe Biden.

最近的兩次民意調查都問到了喬-拜登。

You could see here he was 39 favorable, 58 favorable.

你可以在這裡看到，他的支持率為 39% 和 58%。

This is about a week ago.

這是大約一週前的事情。

About two weeks ago, 44, 56.

大約兩週前，44，56

And Fox, these are not good numbers.

而福克斯，這些數字並不樂觀。

But they asked the same question in the same polls about Kamala Harris.

但在同樣的民調中，他們對卡馬拉-哈里斯提出了同樣的問題。

These numbers aren't even, you know, aren't better.

這些數字甚至沒有更好。

In fact, they're a little bit worse.

事實上，他們的情況更糟一些。

Her favorable 37 in the same poll where Biden's is 39, 41 in the same poll where it's 44.

在拜登的支持率為 39% 的同一民調中，她的支持率為 37%；在拜登的支持率為 44% 的同一民調中，她的支持率為 41%。

And with what Mike just told you there, that's a huge consideration or it probably is for Democrats, because if you do say Biden is very weak, got to get him out, got to get somebody else in.

麥克剛剛告訴你，這是民主黨人的一個重要考慮因素，因為如果你說拜登非常軟弱，就必須讓他下臺，讓其他人上臺。

If Kamala Harris is likely to be that nominee, Democrats have to ask themselves, is that really going to enhance their political positioning?

如果卡馬拉-哈里斯有可能成為提名人，民主黨人不禁要捫心自問，這真的會提升他們的政治定位嗎？

OK, Steve Kornacki, thanks for breaking it down for us, my friend.

好的，史蒂夫-科納基，謝謝你為我們分析，我的朋友。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Thanks for watching.

感謝觀看。

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