Hannah Love, she researches cities and public safety at the Brookings Institution.

Hannah Love，她在布魯金斯學會研究城市和公共安全。

What we overwhelmingly heard from folks was fear of crime in downtown business districts.

我們從人們那裡聽到的絕大多數是對市中心商業區犯罪的恐懼。

It was two years into the pandemic, and in the middle of what felt like an explosion of American crime.

那是大流行病爆發的兩年後，正值美國犯罪大爆發的時期。

Crime spiking on the streets of cities across the country.

全國各城市街頭犯罪率飆升。

Crime has increased.

犯罪率有所上升。

Nationwide spike in violent crime in the U.S. is rising.

美國全國範圍內的暴力犯罪激增。

Homicides increased by 36 percent.

凶殺案增加了 36%。

But since then, the story has gotten a little more confusing.

但從那時起，故事就變得有點撲朔迷離了。

Sometimes the news says that crime is going down.

有時新聞說犯罪率在下降。

But other times, crime is turning cities into war zones.

但在其他時候，犯罪卻把城市變成了戰場。

FBI is under-reporting random acts of violence.

聯邦調查局對隨機暴力行為的報告不足。

Two-thirds of Americans say crime in the U.S. is a very or extremely serious problem.

三分之二的美國人表示，美國的犯罪問題非常嚴重或極其嚴重。

And more than three-quarters of us say that there's more crime than a year ago.

超過四分之三的人說，犯罪比一年前多了。

So which is it?

那麼是哪個呢？

Crime up or crime down?

犯罪率上升還是下降？

And if it is down, what exactly do most Americans actually think is happening with crime?

如果犯罪率下降了，那麼大多數美國人究竟認為犯罪率在下降什麼呢？

Crime.

犯罪

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犯罪

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犯罪

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犯罪

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犯罪

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犯罪

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犯罪

Crime.

犯罪

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犯罪

Crime.

犯罪

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犯罪

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犯罪

So, my first question was, OK, when the news says that crime has decreased, where's that info coming from?

所以，我的第一個問題是，好吧，當新聞說犯罪率下降時，這些資訊是從哪裡來的？

I asked my colleague Abdullah.

我問我的同事阿卜杜拉。

My name is Abdullah Fayyad.

我叫阿卜杜拉-法耶茲。

I'm a policy correspondent at Vox.

我是 Vox 的政策通訊員。

The two areas that we get our crime statistics from are the FBI crime database.

我們獲取犯罪統計數據的兩個來源是聯邦調查局犯罪數據庫。

Law enforcement agencies around the country voluntarily report their crime data.

全國各地的執法機構自願報告其犯罪數據。

The other is the National Crime Victimization Survey, which is administered by the federal government and asks people directly whether or not they have been victims of a crime.

另一個是全國犯罪受害者調查，該調查由聯邦政府管理，直接詢問人們是否曾是犯罪受害者。

And both of these sources have their own limitations.

而這兩種來源都有各自的侷限性。

The survey usually talks to around a quarter of a million people, which is both a lot of people and only about 0.07 percent of the country.

該調查通常與約 25 萬人進行對話，這既是一個很大的數字，也僅佔全國人口的 0.07%。

And the FBI's data is, by nature, only made up of crimes that get reported to police.

而聯邦調查局的數據從本質上來說，只包括向警方報案的犯罪數據。

That's actually a big reason the FBI's data on homicide is one of the most widely studied and cited crime statistics, because murder is almost always reported.

事實上，這也是聯邦調查局的凶殺案數據成為最廣泛研究和引用的犯罪統計數據之一的重要原因，因為謀殺案几乎都會被報告。

Now, right now, this chart ends in 2019.

現在，這張圖表將在 2019 年結束。

Add 2020, and we see murder spike.

再加上 2020 年，謀殺案就會激增。

There is a reason why people feel like crime is going up, because crime was going up.

人們覺得犯罪率在上升是有原因的，因為犯罪率在上升。

But experts we talked to also recommended putting that spike into context, of the way that things were before this, what sociologists and criminologists refer to as the great crime decline of the 90s.

但我們採訪過的專家也建議將這一飆升與此前的情況聯繫起來，社會學家和犯罪學家將其稱為 90 年代犯罪率的大幅下降。

And if you extend the chart in the other direction, too, all the way to 2023, that 2020 spike starts to look temporary.

如果你把圖表向另一個方向延伸，一直延伸到 2023 年，2020 年的峰值就開始看起來是暫時的了。

It's now falling.

現在正在下降。

Not yet to where it was before the pandemic, but down.

雖然還沒有達到大流行前的水準，但已經有所下降。

So that's homicide, but we can also look at the FBI's broader violent crime rate over that same period of time, which also looks like it's falling.

是以，這是凶殺案，但我們也可以看看聯邦調查局在同一時期更廣泛的暴力犯罪率，看起來也在下降。

The national property crime rate is a similar story.

全國的財產犯罪率也是類似的情況。

This doesn't mean that all crime is going down everywhere, but it does mean it's down in most places.

這並不意味著所有地方的犯罪率都在下降，但確實意味著大多數地方的犯罪率都在下降。

And yet, 77 percent of us say the opposite is true.

然而，77% 的人卻說事實恰恰相反。

So let's look closer at that.

讓我們來仔細看看。

The polling organization Gallup has actually been asking Americans this question for about 35 years.

事實上，蓋洛普民意調查機構向美國人提出這個問題已有 35 年之久。

And their data on how people have answered it over that time gives us a clue on how to interpret it.

而他們關於人們在這段時間內如何回答問題的數據，為我們提供瞭如何解讀的線索。

Because it turns out, with the exception of like two years, a majority of Americans have always said that crime is higher than it was last year.

因為事實證明，除了近兩年，大多數美國人都說犯罪率比去年高。

What we're seeing is a consistent fear about crime, despite the fact that over the same period of time, crime had been steadily on the decline.

我們看到的是人們對犯罪的持續恐懼，儘管在同一時期，犯罪率一直在穩步下降。

And it's also worth taking a similar look at this chart from earlier, where two-thirds of Americans say crime is a very or extremely serious problem in the U.S.

另外，我們還應該看看早些時候的這張圖表，三分之二的美國人認為犯罪是美國一個非常嚴重或極其嚴重的問題。

We can also chart that over time and see that it is also a pretty consistent belief.

我們還可以將其繪製成圖表，並發現這也是一個相當一致的信念。

But Gallup also asked another version of that question.

但蓋洛普還提出了另一個版本的問題。

How serious a problem is crime in your area?

您所在地區的犯罪問題有多嚴重？

And only a small minority of Americans typically say that crime where they live is a very or extremely serious problem.

通常只有少數美國人表示，他們居住地的犯罪問題非常嚴重或極其嚴重。

In other words, the vast majority of Americans feel safe.

換句話說，絕大多數美國人感到安全。

But there's this kind of abstract perception of crime is out of control.

但有一種抽象的看法，認為犯罪已經失控。

Crime is out of control.

犯罪已經失控。

But not where I am.

但我所在的地方不是這樣。

But somewhere.

但在某個地方

That somewhere was partly the subject of Hannah's research interviews, many of which, remember, were about a specific fear in a specific place.

那個地方是漢娜研究訪談的部分主題，記得其中很多訪談都是關於特定地方的特定恐懼。

The fear of random acts of violence downtown.

對市中心隨意發生暴力行為的恐懼。

And crime downtown in the parts of cities where people go to work.

在人們上班的地方，市中心的犯罪率也很高。

Hannah and her team found that interesting because they also did a geographic analysis of where in cities crime was happening.

漢娜和她的團隊認為這很有趣，因為他們還對城市中犯罪發生的地理位置進行了分析。

When we crunched the data, we found that there was a significant mismatch in perception and reality of crime, particularly as it pertains to where crime occurs.

當我們對數據進行分析時，我們發現人們對犯罪的認識與現實情況存在著嚴重的不匹配，尤其是在犯罪發生的地點方面。

In Chicago, for example, they found that most of the increase in gun deaths in 2020 happened in disadvantaged neighborhoods on the west-south and southwest sides, and barely at all in the dense downtown loop area.

例如，在芝加哥，他們發現 2020 年槍支死亡人數的增加大多發生在西南西兩側的貧困社區，而在密集的市中心環路地區幾乎沒有增加。

In New York, they found that in the busiest parts of the city, violent crime only increased about 2% from 2019 to 2022, compared to an 8% increase in the rest of the city.

在紐約，他們發現在城市最繁忙的地區，暴力犯罪從 2019 年到 2022 年只增加了約 2%，而城市其他地區則增加了 8%。

Downtowns were not driving any sort of citywide increases in crime, even though people felt as though they were.

市中心並沒有導致全市範圍內的犯罪率上升，儘管人們覺得是這樣。

So, even when violent crime was higher, it wasn't high where people thought it was high.

是以，即使暴力犯罪高發，也不是人們認為高發的地方高發。

But why did people think that?

但人們為什麼會這麼想呢？

Hold onto that thought, because slight tone change.

抓住這個念頭，因為音調稍有變化。

This video is sponsored by BetterHelp.

本視頻由 BetterHelp 贊助。

The US election is just a few months away, which for a lot of people is stressful.

再過幾個月就是美國大選了，這對很多人來說都是一種壓力。

It is important to stay informed, but it is also important to take care of yourself.

瞭解資訊很重要，但照顧好自己也很重要。

And this month, while the stress of the fall is still kinda in the distance, is a good time to start.

本月，當秋季的壓力還在遠方，正是開始的好時機。

The way that BetterHelp works is that you fill out a brief questionnaire and you get matched with a licensed therapist, although you can also switch therapists at any time for no additional charge.

BetterHelp 的工作方式是，您只需填寫一份簡短的問卷，就會有一位持證治療師為您配對，不過您也可以隨時更換治療師，無需支付額外費用。

Take a moment, visit betterhelp.com slash foxvideo to get 10% off your first month.

請稍等片刻，訪問 betterhelp.com slash foxvideo，即可享受首月九折優惠。

Alright, so we were looking at this data that showed us that while people thought urban downtowns were really dangerous, they actually weren't.

好吧，我們在研究這些數據時發現，雖然人們認為城市中心區非常危險，但實際上並不危險。

One reason people thought that might have been media coverage.

人們之所以這麼想，原因之一可能是媒體的報道。

Crime continues to concentrate within neighborhoods where it's always been bad, but community or everyday gun violence often doesn't make the headlines as much as something that would happen in a wealthier or more tourist-based district.

犯罪仍然集中在治安一直不好的社區，但社區或日常槍支暴力事件往往不會像發生在較富裕或遊客較多的地區那樣成為頭條新聞。

Two violent attacks in Times Square.

時代廣場發生兩起暴力襲擊事件

Two separate stabbings in Center City.

中心城發生兩起持刀傷人案

Four robberies that have happened downtown.

市中心發生了四起搶劫案。

But Hannah found that the people she talked to weren't just seeing stuff on TV.

但漢娜發現，與她交談的人並不只是在電視上看到的東西。

They were also reacting to something they were seeing in person.

他們也在對自己親眼所見的事情做出反應。

When we were doing our interviews, people often conflated crime and unsheltered homelessness within the same breath.

在我們進行採訪時，人們常常把犯罪和無家可歸混為一談。

One thing that has changed a bit since the pandemic is in who you see on the streets in these downtown neighborhoods.

自大流行病發生以來，有一點發生了變化，那就是你在這些市中心街區的街道上看到的人。

Before the pandemic, that would be overwhelmingly office workers, some tourists, but there were also always some number of people on the streets experiencing homelessness, addiction, mental health issues.

在大流行病發生之前，這些人絕大多數是上班族，也有一些是遊客，但也總有一些人流落街頭，無家可歸，染上毒癮，有心理健康問題。

Then the pandemic emptied these places out.

後來，大流行病把這些地方清空了。

And as office workers and tourists slowly returned...

隨著上班族和遊客慢慢返回...

When there's less people crowding the streets, you're more likely to see things like visible homelessness or visible drug use.

當街上的人少了，你就更有可能看到明顯的無家可歸者或明顯的吸毒現象。

Today, more of us are back in offices.

如今，越來越多的人回到了辦公室。

But there are also, by some accounts, simply more vulnerable people on the streets, partly due to the cutting of social services.

但是，從某些方面來看，街頭的弱勢群體也越來越多，部分原因是社會服務的削減。

For example, by 2022, New York State had 20% fewer psychiatric beds for people with severe mental illness than it had in 2014.

例如，到 2022 年，紐約州為嚴重精神疾病患者提供的精神病床位將比 2014 年減少 20%。

And from 2019 to 2023, the number of Americans experiencing unsheltered homelessness went up by more than 20%.

而從 2019 年到 2023 年，無家可歸的美國人數量增加了 20% 以上。

I live in Boston, where over the past few years, there has been a homeless encampment that does create this public perception that there is not just disorder, but chaos in how the city is running itself.

我住在波士頓，在過去的幾年裡，波士頓出現了無家可歸者營地，這確實給公眾造成了這樣的印象，即這座城市的管理方式不僅無序，而且混亂。

Even if, you know, those encampments don't necessarily pose, you know, an imminent threat or danger to the residents that live in those areas.

即使，你知道，這些營地並不一定對居住在這些地區的居民構成迫在眉睫的威脅或危險。

Changes like these can make a city feel different, even less safe.

諸如此類的變化會讓一個城市感覺不同，甚至不那麼安全。

But all the data we have tells us that equating vulnerable people with crime is not correct.

但我們掌握的所有數據都告訴我們，將弱勢人群與犯罪劃等號是不正確的。

And here's the problem with that.

問題就在這裡。

If people don't feel safe, then we're not accomplishing our task.

如果人們沒有安全感，那麼我們就沒有完成任務。

Stats don't matter if people don't believe they are in a safe environment.

如果人們不相信自己身處一個安全的環境，那麼數據並不重要。

What we're currently seeing right now is a lot of politicians and policymakers crafting policy based on perception rather than evidence.

我們現在看到的是，很多政治家和政策制定者在制定政策時都是基於認知而非證據。

The governor of New York sent the National Guard to patrol the New York City subway.

紐約州州長派遣國民警衛隊在紐約地鐵巡邏。

Crime on the subway had already been on the decline.

地鐵上的犯罪率已經在下降。

That's an explicit example right there of having perception-based policy take a lot of municipal resources and taxpayer money without having any results because it's in the wrong place.

這就是一個明顯的例子，基於觀念的政策耗費了大量的市政資源和納稅人的錢，卻沒有產生任何效果，因為它放在了錯誤的地方。

A lot of what we're seeing are counterproductive policy solutions to crime in the long term.

從長遠來看，我們看到的很多解決犯罪問題的政策都是適得其反的。

Harsher penalties for petty crime that include eliminating eligibility for parole and probation.

對輕微犯罪處以更嚴厲的刑罰，包括取消假釋和緩刑資格。

In San Francisco, voters imposed drug test requirements on welfare recipients.

在舊金山，選民對福利領取者提出了藥物測試要求。

Tough on crime bills that we kind of felt like the country was moving away from, you know, over the last 10, 15 years and now are coming back in a very big way.

在過去的 10 年、15 年裡，我們感覺這個國家正在遠離嚴厲打擊犯罪的法案，而現在這些法案又以一種非常大的方式回來了。

In a way, this is an impossible story to tell.

從某種程度上說，這是一個無法講述的故事。

Try telling the victim of an actual crime that crime is down.

試著告訴真正的犯罪受害者，犯罪率下降了。

Try telling it to a country seeing real crimes on TV.

試著告訴那些在電視上看到真實犯罪的國家。

Last time I'll show you this chart and I want you to tell me which of the following two clips fits it better.

最後一次，我給你們看這個圖表，我想讓你們告訴我，下面兩個片段哪個更符合這個圖表。

Last year, the murder rate saw the sharpest decrease in history.

去年，謀殺率出現了歷史上最大幅度的下降。

Crime fell to one of its lowest levels in more than 50 years.

犯罪率降至 50 多年來的最低水平之一。

To fund the police, Democrats have turned our once great cities into cesspools of bloodshed and crime.

為了給警察提供資金，民主黨人把我們曾經偉大的城市變成了血腥和犯罪的淵藪。

In April 2024, an ABC News poll found that voters trust Donald Trump over Joe Biden on crime and safety by a margin of eight percentage points.

2024 年 4 月，美國廣播公司新聞的一項民意調查發現，在犯罪和安全問題上，選民對唐納德-特朗普的信任度比對喬-拜登的信任度高出 8 個百分點。

I was honestly surprised it wasn't more than that.

老實說，我很驚訝沒有比這更多的了。

Imagine that the homicide rate kept falling like this, and that by 2025 or 2026, you saw it get to its lowest in decades.

試想一下，如果凶殺案發生率持續下降，到 2025 年或 2026 年，凶殺案發生率就會降到幾十年來的最低點。

How many people would believe you?

有多少人會相信你？

How many people would believe you?

有多少人會相信你？