dollars. Chinese automakers are going to come here eventually, and they're going to do it regardless of if there's a tariff or not.

美元。中國汽車製造商最終會來到這裡，無論是否徵收關稅，他們都會來。

Forty years ago or so, the Chinese auto industry barely existed.

40 多年前，中國汽車工業幾乎不存在。

Today, the country makes enough cars to supply half the world.

如今，該國生產的汽車足以供應半個世界。

I call it the great Godzilla.

我稱它為偉大的哥斯拉。

The world has never seen an auto industry of this size scale.

世界上從未有過如此大規模的汽車工業。

This is a giant machine just getting ramped up.

這臺巨大的機器正在加速運轉。

And it has its eyes on the United States, which, thanks to China's rise, is now the second largest car market on the planet.

由於中國的崛起，美國現已成為全球第二大汽車市場。

There are no Chinese car brands for sale in the U.S.

沒有中國汽車品牌在美國銷售。

at the moment, although a few other ones like Volvo, Polestar and Lotus are

目前，雖然沃爾沃、Polestar 和蓮花等少數幾家公司

Chinese-owned. But insiders say it's only a matter of time.

中國擁有。但業內人士表示，這只是時間問題。

The country has been ramping up exports to offload over capacity.

該國一直在增加出口，以卸載過剩產能。

Surveys indicate a large share of shoppers, especially younger ones, would be happy to buy a Chinese car, despite concerns over privacy, etc.

調查顯示，儘管存在隱私等方面的顧慮，但很大一部分購物者，尤其是年輕人，還是樂意購買中國汽車。

But not everyone shares the enthusiasm.

但並非所有人都有同樣的熱情。

President Biden slapped Chinese automakers with stiff tariffs, effectively doubling the price of a Chinese export EV, which can otherwise be at least as cheap as $11,500.

拜登總統對中國汽車製造商徵收了嚴厲的關稅，這實際上使中國出口電動汽車的價格翻了一番，而中國出口電動汽車的價格至少可以便宜到 11,500 美元。

Within the auto industry, opinions vary, but many say tariffs might not be that effective in the long run and may do more harm than good.

汽車行業內部意見不一，但許多人認為，從長遠來看，關稅可能並不那麼有效，而且弊大於利。

So what are the alternatives?

那麼，有哪些替代方案呢？

We asked some industry insiders to find out.

我們請教了一些業內人士。

For the Detroit 3, for Toyota, for Hyundai to compete well against these

對於底特律三強、豐田和現代汽車來說，要想在與這些競爭對手的競爭中取得好成績

Chinese brands, it's going to take something more than simply raising the tariff from 25 percent to 100 percent.

對中國品牌來說，這不僅僅是把關稅從 25% 提高到 100% 這麼簡單。

I'm not exaggerating when I say what China, the challenge that China is presenting the world, including the United States, is unprecedented.

我毫不誇張地說，中國給包括美國在內的世界帶來的挑戰是前所未有的。

You know, in the case of the Japanese and Koreans, when they came into the

要知道，就日本人和朝鮮人而言，當他們來到這裡時

United States, we were able to persuade, maybe coerce a little bit.

我們能夠說服美國，也許還能脅迫一下。

Hey, if you want to sell here, you have to build your transplant here.

嘿，如果你想在這裡銷售，就必須在這裡建立你的移植基地。

But they could own it. And they were our allies.

但他們可以擁有它。他們是我們的盟友。

And ultimately, they were more dependent on us than we were on them.

最終，他們對我們的依賴比我們對他們的依賴更大。

They were more. In China's case, we don't have that kind of leverage with them. China has the capacity to make half the world's cars, four times as many as the U.S.

他們更多。就中國而言，我們沒有這樣的籌碼。中國有能力生產全球一半的汽車，是美國的四倍。

typically makes. Annual demand within the country is about 25 million units. That leaves 15 million cars for export, nearly as many as the U.S.

典型製造。美國國內的年需求量約為 2500 萬輛。這就為出口留下了 1,500 萬輛汽車，幾乎與美國的出口量相當。

can sell in a good year.

能在豐收年賣出。

China sent 5 million cars to over 100 countries in 2023, making it one of the largest exporters in the world.

2023 年，中國向 100 多個國家出口了 500 萬輛汽車，成為世界上最大的出口國之一。

You see Chinese cars now in virtually every market except for the United

現在，除了美國，中國汽車幾乎遍佈所有市場。

States and Canada.

美國和加拿大。

And because there's so much capacity at home and the market at home is has a price war, the Chinese automakers themselves are super motivated to get out and push their products into Europe, the United States.

由於國內產能過剩，國內市場又在打價格戰，中國汽車製造商自己也有很大的動力走出國門，將產品推向歐洲和美國。

A mix of favorable policies and a booming economy got them to where they are today. China welcomed foreign automakers into the country beginning in the 1980s and especially after some policy changes in the following decade. Rules were simple.

優惠的政策和蓬勃發展的經濟使它們取得了今天的成就。中國從 20 世紀 80 年代開始歡迎外國汽車製造商進入中國，尤其是在隨後的 10 年裡，政策發生了一些變化。當時的規則很簡單。

Foreign firms could sell cars in the country as long as they partnered with a local Chinese automaker.

外國公司只要與中國本土汽車製造商合作，就可以在中國銷售汽車。

Chinese firms also made some cross-border investments.

中國企業也進行了一些跨國投資。

Chinese automaker Zhili bought Volvo cars from Ford, for example.

例如，中國汽車製造商直立從福特購買了沃爾沃汽車。

And finally, many companies are government owned and even private firms receive generous subsidies.

最後，許多公司都是政府所有，甚至私營公司也能獲得慷慨的補貼。

EV maker BYD received $3.7 billion between 2018 and 2022, for example.

例如，電動汽車製造商比亞迪在 2018 年至 2022 年期間獲得了 37 億美元。

In state capitalism, the objective is we're going to build a world powerhouse auto industry.

在國家資本主義中，我們的目標是打造世界汽車工業強國。

To get there, we need great companies.

要實現這一目標，我們需要偉大的公司。

But by the way, at the local, provincial and federal level, we'll also offer all kinds of help.

順便說一句，在地方、省和聯邦層面，我們也會提供各種幫助。

So the Western automaker look at that and say, how in the world do we compete? But Chinese companies have also built strong products.

是以，西方汽車製造商看到這一點就會說，我們到底該如何競爭？但中國公司也製造出了強大的產品。

When they came to the Detroit Auto Show 15 years ago, their cars were not competitive. You could see the quality issues with those vehicles as you sat in them, as you played around with them.

15 年前，當他們參加底特律車展時，他們的汽車並不具有競爭力。當你坐在車裡，當你把玩這些汽車時，你就會發現它們的品質問題。

Now, the cars are much higher quality.

現在，汽車的品質要高得多。

They are very competitive once they're hit the ground.

它們一落地就非常有競爭力。

And they pay attention to all the configuration of every seat in the car, not just the driver's cockpit.

此外，他們還關注車內每個座位的所有配置，而不僅僅是駕駛員的駕駛艙。

That's what I think obsoletes the traditionally designed and styled vehicle. Bill Russo, a former Chrysler executive, says the Chinese have been extremely successful in developing new business models based around software and services.

我認為，這將淘汰傳統設計和造型的汽車。克萊斯勒前高管比爾-魯索（Bill Russo）說，中國人在圍繞軟件和服務開發新的商業模式方面非常成功。

Many recent entrants have backgrounds in technology, electronics and mobile devices markets.

許多新加入者都有技術、電子和移動設備市場的背景。

When the iPhone came, the Nokia products went away quickly.

iPhone 問世後，諾基亞的產品很快就銷聲匿跡了。

That's what's happening in China now in the car business.

這就是目前中國汽車行業的現狀。

American consumers are also receptive to Chinese cars.

美國消費者也樂於接受中國汽車。

Nearly half of respondents in a recent survey said they are familiar with

在最近的一項調查中，近一半的受訪者表示他們熟悉

Chinese vehicle brands, and 76 percent under the age of 40 said they would consider buying a Chinese car.

76%的 40 歲以下受訪者表示會考慮購買中國品牌汽車。

Consideration then declined significantly among older consumers.

隨後，老年消費者的考慮程度明顯下降。

Grappling with this new reality, tariffs have become a popular political tool, especially with former President Trump beginning in 2018.

面對這一新的現實，關稅已成為一種流行的政治工具，尤其是前總統特朗普從 2018 年開始。

Auto executives at the time, famously Tesla CEO Elon Musk, decried what they considered an imbalance between U.S.

當時的汽車企業高管，尤其是著名的特斯拉首席執行官埃隆-馬斯克（Elon Musk），對他們所認為的美國與美國之間的不平衡表示譴責。

and Chinese trade rules.

和中國的貿易規則。

Lately, it is the Biden administration who is focused on tariffs.

最近，拜登政府把重點放在了關稅上。

First and foremost, EVs.

首先是電動汽車。

Tariffs on them will increase from 25 percent to 100 percent in 2024.

到 2024 年，關稅將從 25% 增加到 100%。

The administration says China's extensive subsidies and non-market practices have led to substantial risks of overcapacity.

美國政府稱，中國的廣泛補貼和非市場做法已導致產能過剩的巨大風險。

Chinese EV exports grew 70 percent from 2022 to 2023.

從 2022 年到 2023 年，中國電動汽車出口增長了 70%。

They're also raising tariffs on an array of materials used in carmaking.

他們還提高了一系列汽車製造材料的關稅。

Lithium ion batteries, graphite, magnets, steel, aluminum and semiconductors. China controls more than 80 percent of certain segments of the EV battery supply chain, the administration said.

鋰離子電池、石墨、磁鐵、鋼、鋁和半導體。政府表示，中國控制著電動汽車電池供應鏈某些環節 80% 以上的份額。

That leaves U.S.

這使得美國

supply chains vulnerable and risks national security and clean energy goals.

供應鏈的脆弱性，並危及國家安全和清潔能源目標。

Some politicians are pushing for even harder restrictions.

一些政客正在推動更嚴厲的限制措施。

The industry's response is mixed.

業界的反應不一。

Labor leaders are in support for obvious reasons.

出於顯而易見的原因，勞工領袖們表示支持。

So is the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, the auto industry's major trade association.

汽車行業的主要貿易協會汽車創新聯盟也是如此。

Tesla CEO Elon Musk criticized the tariffs, but even he had said earlier in 2024 that without trade barriers, most Western automakers would be demolished by Chinese competition.

特斯拉首席執行官埃隆-馬斯克（Elon Musk）對關稅提出了責備，但即便是他也曾在 2024 年早些時候表示，如果沒有貿易壁壘，大多數西方汽車製造商都將被中國的競爭所摧毀。

They can sell EVs cheaper than the cheapest fuel-burning cars and, according to some, are way ahead of competition in software and tech.

它們銷售電動汽車的價格比最便宜的燃油汽車還要便宜，而且據一些人說，它們在軟件和技術方面遠遠領先於競爭對手。

But Russo is skeptical of tariffs.

但魯索對關稅持懷疑態度。

The Trump-era trade war may have been a missile aimed at Beijing, but it landed squarely on Detroit, he once wrote.

他曾寫道，特朗普時代的貿易戰可能是一枚瞄準北京的飛彈，但卻正中底特律的下懷。

Two things happened.

發生了兩件事。

First, the trade war drove up the costs of a lot of parts American automakers sourced from China or elsewhere.

首先，貿易戰推高了美國汽車製造商從中國或其他地方採購的大量零部件的成本。

GM and Ford both reported that the Trump tariffs in 2018 saddled them each with an additional $1 billion in steel and aluminum costs.

通用汽車和福特汽車都報告說，特朗普在 2018 年徵收的關稅使它們各自的鋼鋁成本增加了 10 億美元。

Secondly, it likely accelerated the globalization of Chinese companies looking to circumvent trade rules by making investments beyond their own borders. They're building factories in Mexico, they're building factories all over the world, Africa, Middle East, Eastern Europe, Western Europe,

其次，它很可能加速了中國公司的全球化進程，這些公司希望通過境外投資來規避貿易規則。它們在墨西哥建廠，在非洲、中東、東歐、西歐等世界各地建廠、

Southeast Asia. There's never been a bigger effort by China to de-Chinaize its supply chain than right now.

東南亞。中國從未像現在這樣努力使其供應鏈去中國化。

If elected, Donald Trump pledged to place a 100 percent duty on any car made in Mexico by a Chinese company.

唐納德-特朗普承諾，如果當選，將對中國公司在墨西哥生產的任何汽車徵收 100% 的關稅。

Policy analysts say doing so would violate the terms of the very agreement

政策分析家認為，這樣做將違反協議的條款

Trump made with Mexico.

特朗普與墨西哥達成的協議。

It might also cause further friction with the country, which in 2023 became the U.S.'s largest trading partner.

這也可能導致與該國的進一步摩擦，而該國將在 2023 年成為美國最大的貿易伙伴。

In any event, executives like Russo argue that these measures are delaying the inevitable. American firms need to face up to the fact that Chinese companies have extremely competitive and attractive products and American consumers want them. If you can make aspirational products affordable with configurations that surprise and delight the users of that platform, that's a universal value proposition. And sorry, Americans buy Chinese stuff and have been for decades have been enjoying the benefits of that in terms of affordability forever.

無論如何，魯索等高管認為，這些措施都是在拖延不可避免的結果。美國公司需要正視這樣一個事實：中國公司擁有極具競爭力和吸引力的產品，而美國消費者需要這些產品。如果你能讓人們買得起有追求的產品，並在配置上讓該平臺的用戶感到驚喜和愉悅，這就是一個普遍的價值主張。很抱歉，美國人買中國的東西，而且幾十年來一直享受著這種實惠帶來的好處。

If you shut that off, all you're going to do is make it more expensive.

如果把它關掉，只會讓它變得更貴。

There are alternatives.

還有其他選擇。

Take a page from what China did 30 years ago when it was just starting out and said, hey, you want to come into our market, the United States?

借鏡中國 30 年前剛剛起步時的做法，中國說，嘿，你想進入我們美國的市場嗎？

Welcome. But by the way, in order to sell here, you have to manufacture here.

歡迎光臨。不過順便說一句，要在這裡銷售，就必須在這裡生產。

You have to build plants here.

你必須在這裡建廠。

And when you manufacture here, you have to form a joint venture with an American company that will own half of the business.

在這裡生產時，你必須與一家美國公司組建合資企業，該公司將擁有一半的業務。

Oh, OK. And by the way, we'd like you to export from America, too, so that we get extra benefits of you being here.

哦，好的順便說一句，我們也希望你們從美國出口，這樣我們就能從你們的到來中獲得額外的好處。

We could do the same. That's called flipping the script.

我們也可以這樣做。這就是所謂的翻轉劇本。

The problem isn't that we have to keep them out.

問題不在於我們必須把他們拒之門外。

The problem is we should let them in to give ourselves the benefits of the DNA that they've been able to create.

問題是，我們應該讓他們進來，讓我們自己從他們創造的 DNA 中受益。

And then but do it under a guided process, do it with policies.

然後，但要在有指導的過程中進行，要有政策。

And right now, nobody's writing those policies.

而現在，沒有人在制定這些政策。

Nobody's writing policies that allow some of the benefits of globalization and scale and product configurations and technologies to flow back to the Western world. And that's going to really weaken the it's not going to help the industry. It's going to weaken the industry if we if we don't allow that to happen. And even though there are no Chinese branded cars for sale in the U.S.

沒有人制定政策，讓全球化、規模、產品配置和技術的一些優勢迴流到西方世界。這將真正削弱該行業，對該行業毫無幫助。如果我們不允許這種情況發生，就會削弱這個行業。儘管在美國沒有中國品牌的汽車出售，但美國的汽車業仍在發展。

yet, more than 100 Chinese owned automotive companies have a presence in the

然而，100 多家中資汽車公司已在中國開展業務。

United States already.

美國已經

They are concentrated in Detroit and Silicon Valley.

它們主要集中在底特律和硅谷。

And there are Chinese auto suppliers scattered across 30 U.S.

中國汽車供應商遍佈美國 30 個州。

states. But you'd never know it because we don't see Chinese cars on American roads. So it doesn't occur. No, no.

各州。但你永遠不會知道，因為我們在美國道路上看不到中國汽車。所以不會發生。沒有，沒有。

What? That can't possibly be true.

什麼？這不可能是真的

But it is. They're here.

但事實如此他們來了

They're getting ready for the time when it's right to enter and sell their cars to Americans.

他們正在為進入美國市場並向美國人銷售汽車做好準備。