Name: 不只台灣，近來美國房價也是貴鬆鬆！2024 年的房價是否會比較合理呢？ (Will houses become more affordable in 2024?)
Uploaded: 2024-01-03T21:01:10.000Z
Duration: 3 min 21 s

情態助動詞 A2

A recent report for the real estate company Redfin shows most Americans can't afford 85% of the homes that are currently for sale here in the US.

房地產公司 Redfin 最近的一份報告顯示，大多數美國人無法負擔目前 85% 在美國出售的房屋。

That is an increase of over 5% from 2022.

過去簡單式

The company defined the average household median around $70,000 each year.

該公司將平均家庭年收入中位數定義為約 7 萬美元。

And joining me now with more on this report is Chen Zhao.

現在與我分享這份報告的更多內容的是 Chen Zhao。

She is the head of the economic research for Redfin.

So I want to start with asking what this report shows as factors that are driving this gap in affordability with the current real estate market the way that it is.

我想先詢問這份報告顯示的哪些因素導致了當前房地產市場的負擔能力差距。

Yes, absolutely. So what we're finding is that about only about 16% of the homes that were available for sale in 2023 were affordable for the typical household and that's down from 21% in 2022.

是的，一點沒錯。 我們發現，2023 年待售房屋中，只有約 16% 是普通家庭可以負擔得起的，這一數字低於 2022 年的 21%。

But importantly, if you look before 2022, that fraction was around 40% or even higher. - Wow.

但重要的是，如果你看看 2022 年之前，這個比例約為 40% 甚至更高。 - 哇。

And what happened these last two years is that one: mortgage rates increased a lot.

過去兩年發生的事情是：抵押貸款利率大幅上升。

So they increased from around 3% to a peak of about 8% in October and this was happening as the Fed was, you know, hiking interest rates to combat inflation.

因此，它們在 10 月從 3% 左右上升到了 8% 左右的峰值，而這種情況發生的時候，聯準會正在升息以對抗通貨膨脹。

And then the second factor is that home prices increased a lot during the pandemic around 40% or so,

第二個因素就是疫情期間房價漲了很多，大概在 40% 左右，

and they actually stayed high even as mortgage rates were increasing a lot, which was unexpected.

即使抵押貸款利率大幅上漲，它們實際上仍然保持在高位，這是出乎意料的。

And the reason for that was because there were so few homes for sale so prices stayed really high.

原因是出售房屋太少，所以價格一直很高。

So Chen, we're expecting rates to drop next year, is that going to be a good sign for the market?

Chen，我們預期明年利率會下降，這對市場來說是個好兆頭嗎？

Oh, yes, absolutely. So we do think that 2023 will probably be the bottom for affordability, and we do see affordability improving in 2024 for two reasons.

哦，是的，絕對是。 我們認為 2023 年可能是負擔買房能力的谷底，並且我們看到有兩個原因使得 2024 年的負擔能力有所改善。

One is that, as you said, mortgage rates are likely to ease a little bit.

一是，正如你所說，抵押貸款利率可能會略有下降。

The FED has made it really clear that they're pivoting from rate heights to rate cuts now.

聯準會已經明確表示，他們現在正在從升息轉向降息。

So we do think that mortgage rates will come down a little bit in 2024 not a time, not down to the pandemic era rates, but a little bit and that'll help.

因此，我們確實認為抵押貸款利率將在 2024 年下降一點，不是一次，也不會下降到疫情時期的利率，但會有所幫助。

And we also think that home prices will come down a little bit, maybe 1% in 2024.

我們也認為房價會略有下降，到 2024 年可能會下降 1%。

And that's because we think that, you know, existing homeowners will be increasingly listing their homes for sale.

這是因為我們認為，現有房主將越來越多地掛牌出售自己的房屋。

So supply will come up a little bit in 2024, and that should help to bring down home prices just a little bit.

因此，2024 年供應量將略有增加，這應該有助於稍微降低房價。

So if you're expecting home prices to go down, does that mean it's better to sell right away, if that's what you're hoping to do?

如果房價預計會下跌，這是否意味著最好立即出售，如果有打算要這樣做的話？

I think that if you are a seller, this is actually a pretty good time to list your home for a couple of reasons.

我認為，如果你是賣家，出於以下幾個原因，現在實際上是出售房屋的好時機。

One, you know, prices might be coming down a little bit nationally, but, you know, I'm talking about a national average and, you know, the real estate market is very much local so, you know, conditions may differ a little bit, depending on where you are.

第一點是，全國各地的價格可能會略有下降，我說的是全國平均價格，而且，房地產市場很大程度上是地方性的，所以情況可能會有所不同一點點，取決於你在哪裡。

But secondly, there's not a lot of homes on the market right now, so if you are putting your home on the market, this is a good opportunity to be, you know, to not face a lot of competition.

但其次，目前市場上的房屋並不多，因此，如果你將房屋投放市場，這是一個避免面臨大量競爭的好機會。

Makes a lot of sense. Chen Zhao, thanks so much for your time. We appreciate this.

很有道理。 Chen Zhao，非常感謝你抽出時間。 我們對此表示感激。

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不只台灣，近來美國房價也是貴鬆鬆！2024 年的房價是否會比較合理呢？ (Will houses become more affordable in 2024?)

absolutely

pandemic

opportunity

improve