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  • Are you familiar with the age-old adage "sell in May and go away"?

    您是否熟悉「五月賣出股票」這句古老的格言?

  • As the season of November approaches, it's a good time to delve into an intriguing market

    隨著十一月季節的臨近,現在是深入研究有趣的市場

  • phenomenon known as the "Halloween Effect."

    現象(稱為“萬聖節效應”)的好時機。

  • So let's unwrap this concept with PAA

    因此,讓我們用 PAA 來解釋這個概念

  • Before we dive in, it's important to note that the following discussion is for informational

    。在深入討論之前,請務必注意以下討論僅供參考

  • and educational purposes only.

    和教育目的。

  • I don't provide financial advice, nor should this be taken as such.

    我不提供財務建議,也不應如此對待。

  • Always consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

    在做出任何投資決定之前,請務必諮詢金融專業人士。

  • This is simply a discussion about the phenomenon known as the "Halloween Effect."

    這只是關於「萬聖節效應」現象的討論。

  • by a random guy on the internet who knows how to Google.

    由網路上一個知道如何谷歌的隨機人提供。

  • That being said, let's talk about

    話雖如此,我們來談談

  • What is the Halloween Strategy and Halloween Effect?

    什麼是萬聖節策略和萬聖節效應?

  • The Halloween strategy, sometimes referred to as the Halloween effect or Halloween indicator,

    萬聖節策略,有時稱為萬聖節效應或萬聖節指標,

  • is a market timing approach.

    是一種市場擇時方法。

  • Here's the gist:

    重點如下:

  • Stocks tend to perform better from October 31 (Halloween) to May 1 than from May through

    從 10 月 31 日(萬聖節)到 5 月 1 日,股票的表現往往比

  • October's end.

    5 月到10 月底的表現好。

  • Advocates of this strategy propose buying stocks in November, holding them over the

    這項策略的倡導者建議在 11 月購買股票,持有它們過冬

  • winter, and then selling in April.

    ,然後在 4 月出售。

  • They often advise reducing stock investments during the summer months or even avoiding

    他們經常建議在夏季減少股票投資

  • them altogether.

    甚至完全避免投資。

  • This approach starkly contrasts the classic 'buy-and-hold' strategy, where investors maintain

    這種方法與經典的「買入並長期持有」策略形成鮮明對比,在這種策略中,投資者

  • their positions for the long term, irrespective of market fluctuations.

    無論市場波動如何,都長期維持其頭寸。

  • And this strategy is by no mean a new thing, so let's talk about:

    這個策略絕對不是什麼新鮮事,所以我們來談談:

  • Historical Roots of the Halloween Strategy

    萬聖節策略的歷史根源

  • Halloween Strategy's lineage traces back to the saying "sell in May and go away."

    萬聖節策略的血統可以追溯到「五月賣出」這句話。

  • There's even a longer version: "Sell in May, go away, come again St. Leger Day."

    甚至還有更長的版本:“五月出售,走開,聖萊傑日再來。”

  • The St. Leger Stakes is a famous horse race held in Doncaster, England, and is one of

    聖萊傑錦標賽 (St. Leger Stakes) 是在英國唐卡斯特舉行的一項著名賽馬比賽,也是

  • the oldest horse races in the world, dating back to 1776.

    世界上最古老的賽馬比賽之一,其歷史可以追溯到 1776 年。

  • St. Leger Day usually falls in mid-September and marks the final leg of the English Triple

    聖萊傑日通常在9 月中旬,標誌著賽事的最後一站英國

  • Crown of thoroughbred horse racing.

    純種賽馬三冠王。

  • The relevance of St. Leger Day to the stock market is primarily symbolic.

    聖萊傑日與股市的相關性主要是像徵性的。

  • The idea is that by St. Leger Day, summer is concluding, and many British elites and

    這個想法是,到聖萊傑日,夏天即將結束,許多

  • financial professionals who might have taken time off or been preoccupied with the social

    可能休假或專注於社交季節

  • season (including horse racing) would return to the city and refocus on business.

    (包括賽馬)的英國精英和金融專業人士將返回城市並重新專注於商業。

  • As a result, market activity might pick up again.

    因此,市場活動可能會再次回升。

  • Historical context provides a fascinating backdrop.

    歷史背景提供了迷人的背景。

  • Many believe this investment pattern originated in the UK, where during summer, the privileged

    許多人認為這種投資模式起源於英國,在夏季,特權菁英

  • elite would migrate from London to their countryside estates.

    會從倫敦遷移到他們的鄉村莊園。

  • This seasonal migration meant they'd often neglect their investment portfolios until

    這種季節性遷移意味著他們經常忽視自己的投資組合,直到

  • their return in September.

    九月回來為止。

  • The modern world offers a parallel with financial professionals taking vacations during the

    現代世界與金融專業人士在夏季休假類似

  • summer, possibly impacting market dynamics.

    ,這可能會影響市場動態。

  • Cool as this idea sounds, just going by old patterns can be a bit risky for today's investors.

    儘管這個想法聽起來很酷,但對於今天的投資者來說,僅僅遵循舊的模式可能有點冒險。

  • Just because something happened in the past doesn't mean it'll play out the same way now.

    過去發生的事情並不意味著現在也會以同樣的方式發生。

  • Ok, so

    好吧,那麼

  • Does the Data Support the Halloween Strategy?

    數據支持萬聖節策略嗎?

  • According to a study titled "Halloween Effect in developed stock markets: A historical perspective"

    根據2020年發表的題為《發達股市的萬聖節效應:歷史視角》的研究顯示

  • published in 2020, in the US stock market and other developed markets, the Halloween

    ,在美國股市和其他已開發市場,萬聖節

  • effect was only noticeable starting from the middle of the 20th century.

    效應從20世紀中葉開始才變得明顯。

  • So the plot twist is, this isn't some ancient financial magic trick.

    所以情節的轉折是,這不是什麼古老的金融魔術。

  • It's kinda like thinking your grandfather's secret BBQ sauce recipe has been passed down

    這有點像你以為你祖父的燒烤醬秘方已經傳承了

  • for centuries, only to find out he picked it up from a magazine in the '60s.

    幾個世紀,卻發現他是在 60 年代從一本雜誌上學到的。

  • This research, published in International Economics, dives deep into the historical

    這項發表在《國際經濟學》上的研究深入探討了

  • evaluation of the Halloween effect on the US stock market and its counterparts in other

    萬聖節效應對美國股市以及

  • developed markets such as the UK, France, Canada, Germany, and Japan.

    英國、法國、加拿大、德國和日本等其他已開發市場的影響的歷史評估。

  • Utilizing various statistical techniques, including average analysis, Student's t-test,

    該研究 利用各種統計技術,包括平均值分析、學生 t 檢定、

  • ANOVA, and the Mann-Whitney test, alongside a trading simulation approach, the research

    變異數分析和曼惠特尼檢驗,以及交易模擬方法,

  • investigates the evolution of the Halloween Effect.

    調查了萬聖節效應的演變。

  • The findings are quite intriguing.

    研究結果非常有趣。

  • In the US stock market and other developed markets, the Halloween effect was only noticeable

    在美國股市和其他已開發市場,萬聖節效應

  • starting from the middle of the 20th century.

    從20世紀中葉才開始明顯。

  • This means that, for a significant period in history, there was no discernible pattern

    這意味著,在歷史上一個重要的時期, 股市趨勢中

  • linked to Halloween in stock market trends.

    沒有與萬聖節相關的明顯模式 。

  • More recent data, however, suggests that the Halloween effect is still present in the US

    然而,最近的數據表明,萬聖節效應仍然存在於美國

  • stock market as well as in most of the other developed markets.

    股市以及大多數其他已開發市場。

  • This recurrence provides opportunities for savvy investors to construct trading strategies

    這種重複為精明的投資者提供了建立

  • that potentially outperform the market average.

    可能超越市場平均水平的

  • This observation underscores the adaptability of markets and their responsiveness to cultural

    交易策略的機會 。 這項觀察強調了市場的適應性及其對文化

  • and social events.

    和社會事件的反應。

  • In essence, the research supports the Adaptive Market Hypothesis, which suggests that markets

    從本質上講,該研究支持適應性市場假說,該假說認為市場的

  • evolve and adapt based on a combination of rational and irrational behaviors of market

    演變和適應是基於市場

  • participants.

    參與者的理性和非理性行為的結合。

  • In the context of Halloween, this means that while consumers are shelling out billions

    在萬聖節的背景下,這意味著雖然消費者在慶祝活動上花費了數十億美元

  • on festivities, traders and investors are leveraging historical trends linked to the

    ,但交易者和投資者正在利用與該

  • season for their strategies.

    季節相關的歷史趨勢來制定策略。

  • So

  • Why Does the Halloween Strategy Work?

    為什麼萬聖節策略有效呢?

  • While there is no definitive explanation for why the Halloween strategy has shown some

    雖然沒有明確解釋為什麼萬聖節策略

  • success historically, several factors may contribute to this phenomenon:

    在歷史上取得了一些成功,但有幾個因素可能會導致這種現象:季節性:從歷史上看,

  • Seasonality: Historically, stock market returns have exhibited a seasonal pattern, with returns

    股市回報呈現出季節性模式,回報

  • typically being stronger in the winter months and weaker in the summer months.

    通常在冬季較強,而在冬季較弱。夏季。

  • This pattern may be due to various factors, such as investor psychology, holiday-related

    這種模式可能是由於多種因素造成的,例如投資者心理、假期相關的

  • trading patterns, or changes in market sentiment.

    交易模式或市場情緒的變化。

  • Summer Vacations: During the summer months, many institutional investors and traders take

    暑假:在夏季,許多機構投資者和交易者都會

  • vacations, which can lead to lower trading volumes and less market activity.

    休假,這可能會導致交易量下降和市場活動減少。

  • This reduced liquidity can make the market more volatile and susceptible to price swings,

    流動性的減少可能會使市場更加不穩定,並且容易受到價格波動的影響,

  • potentially leading to lower returns.

    這可能導致回報率降低。

  • Tax Considerations: In some countries, tax considerations may play a role in the Halloween

    稅務考量:在某些國家,稅務考量可能會影響萬聖節

  • strategy's effectiveness.

    策略的有效性。

  • An example could be Australia, where the fiscal year ends on June 30.

    澳洲就是一個例子,該國的財政年度於 6 月 30 日結束。在

  • In this case, selling stocks in May would allow investors to realize capital gains or

    這種情況下,5 月出售股票將允許投資者在

  • losses just before the end of the tax year, potentially for tax planning purposes such

    納稅年度結束前 實現資本收益或 損失,可能用於稅務規劃目的,

  • as offsetting gains with losses or vice versa.

    例如抵消收益造成損失,反之亦然。

  • Behavioral Factors: Investor behavior and sentiment can also play a role in market movements.

    行為因素:投資人的行為和情緒也可以在市場走勢中發揮作用。

  • During the summer months, investors may be more risk-averse due to factors like vacation

    在夏季,由於假期

  • schedules or concerns about market volatility, leading to a preference for less risky assets.

    安排或對市場波動的擔憂等因素,投資者可能會更加規避風險,從而偏好風險較低的資產。

  • Historical Anomaly: It's important to note that the Halloween strategy's effectiveness

    歷史異常:值得注意的是,萬聖節策略的有效性

  • may be a historical anomaly, and there's no guarantee that it will continue to work in

    可能是歷史異常,並且不能保證它在

  • the future.

    未來會繼續發揮作用。

  • Market conditions can change, and past performance is not always indicative of future results.

    市場狀況可能會發生變化,過去的表現並不總是預示未來的結果。

  • However, all of these theories have their critics.

    然而,所有這些理論都受到批評。

  • For instance, the advent of electronic trading allows investors to trade from anywherebe

    例如,電子交易的出現使投資者可以在任何地方進行交易——無論是

  • it a beach or a boardroom.

    海灘還是董事會會議室。

  • The truth remains elusive, and the Halloween strategy stands as a captivating mystery.

    真相仍然難以捉摸,萬聖節策略仍然是一個迷人的謎團。

  • So Does Halloween Affect the Economy in General?

    那麼萬聖節對整體經濟有影響嗎?

  • Outside the stock market, Halloween itself has a significant economic impact.

    在股市之外,萬聖節本身也具有重大的經濟影響。

  • In 2021, for example, Americans anticipated spending a whopping $10.14 billion on Halloween

    例如,2021 年,美國人預計在萬聖節慶祝

  • festivities, a figure that has witnessed steady growth over the years.

    活動上的支出高達 101.4 億美元,這一數字多年來一直在穩步增長。

  • Halloween Effect also seems have some influence on the soft commodities market in general.

    萬聖節效應似乎也對整個軟商品市場產生了一些影響。

  • A study done in 2021 published in Agricultural Economics looked at how the Halloween spirit

    2021 年發表在《農業經濟學》上的一項研究著眼於萬聖節精神

  • might affect the markets of certain goods, particularlysoft commoditieslike cocoa,

    可能如何影響某些商品的市場,特別是可可、

  • coffee, cotton, and a few others.

    咖啡、棉花等「軟商品」。

  • The research aimed to scrutinize the Halloween effect in the markets of basic soft commodities

    該研究旨在審視 1999 年至 2020 年相當長一段時間內

  • over a substantial period, from 1999 to 2020.

    基本軟商品市場的萬聖節效應。

  • The authors incorporated a variety of statistical tests and methods in their study, including

    作者在研究中採用了多種統計檢定和方法,包括

  • the two-sample t-test, the rank-sum Wilcoxon test, as well as examining the autoregressive

    雙樣本 t 檢定、排名-sum Wilcoxon 檢驗,以及檢查自迴歸

  • conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) effect.

    條件異方差 (ARCH) 效應。

  • In addition to this, they also looked into how the January effect—a phenomenon where

    除此之外,他們也研究了一月效應(即一

  • stock prices tend to increase in the month of January more than in other monthsmight

    月份股價漲幅往往高於其他月份的現象)如何

  • interact with the Halloween effect on these markets.

    與萬聖節效應對這些市場產生交互作用。

  • The study found a noteworthy Halloween effect on the cotton market, significantly impacted

    研究發現萬聖節對棉花市場的影響值得注意,

  • by the January effect, which is a trend where financial markets, including commodities,

    一月效應是一種趨勢,包括大宗商品在內的金融市場

  • tend to see a boost in prices during the month of January.

    在一月份價格往往會上漲。

  • Conversely, they identified a significant reverse Halloween effect in the sugar market.

    相反,他們發現食糖市場有顯著的反向萬聖節效應。

  • The study underscores the importance of considering seasonal effects when analyzing commodity

    該研究強調了在分析商品市場時考慮季節性影響的重要性

  • markets, as these effects can play a significant role in price movements and market behavior.

    ,因為這些影響可以在價格變動和市場行為中發揮重要作用。

  • The Halloween Effect also seems to affect the securitized real estate market too, at

    萬聖節效應似乎也影響了證券化房地產市場,至少

  • least in Hong Kong and the US.

    在香港和美國是如此。

  • Back in 2015, two researchers, Hui and Chan, did a study to find out more about this.

    早在 2015 年,兩位研究人員 Hui 和 Chan 就進行了一項研究,以了解更多相關資訊。

  • They published their findings in a journal called Habitat International.

    他們在一份名為《人居國際》的雜誌上發表了他們的研究結果。

  • They looked at different parts of the world, including five countries in Asia (Hong Kong,

    他們從 1996 年到 2013 年

  • China, Japan, Thailand, and Malaysia), as well as the U.S., Canada, and Germany) from

    考察了世界不同地區,包括亞洲五個國家(香港、

  • 1996 to 2013.

    中國、日本、泰國和馬來西亞),以及美國、加拿大和德國)。

  • They used a special tool called the Shiryaev-Zhou index, a statistical method developed by Albert

    他們使用了一種名為「 Shiryaev-Zhou指數是Albert Shiryaev和Jiang Zhou開發的統計方法

  • Shiryaev and Jiang Zhou, used in financial markets to predict drastic changes or trend

    ,用於預測金融市場的劇烈變化或趨勢

  • reversals to check if Halloween and the start of the year (January) had any special effects

    逆轉,以檢查萬聖節和年初(一月)是否對

  • on the housing market.

    房地產市場有特殊影響。

  • What they found was pretty interesting.

    他們的發現非常有趣。

  • Halloween Effects seems to make a noticeable difference in the securitized real estate

    萬聖節效應似乎 對香港和美國等地的

  • market in places like Hong Kong and the U.S., but not really in the other countries they

    證券化房地產市場產生了顯著影響 ,但在他們

  • looked at.

    研究的其他國家卻沒有真正產生影響。

  • As for the January effect, it was only a thing in Hong Kong.

    至於一月的影響,那隻是香港的事。

  • They thought maybe these effects weren't as strong during tough economic times, or

    他們認為,也許這些影響在經濟困難時期就沒那麼強烈,也

  • maybe because people started to know about these effects, they changed the way they acted,

    可能是因為人們開始了解這些影響,他們改變了自己的行為方式,

  • making these effects less predictable.

    使這些影響更難以預測。

  • So, in simpler words, Halloween isn't just a time for fun and games; it might also be

    因此,簡單地說,萬聖節不僅僅是一個玩樂和遊戲的時刻;更是一個歡樂的時刻。這也可能是

  • a time when the housing market in certain places gets a bit of a shake-up.

    某些地方的房地產市場出現一些動盪的時期。

  • And this is something that's pretty interesting for people who are into studying markets and

    對於那些熱衷於研究市場和金錢的人來說,這是非常有趣的事情

  • money!

  • The Halloween strategy offers a fascinating perspective on market timing and investment

    萬聖節策略為市場時機和投資

  • approaches.

    方法提供了一個令人著迷的視角。

  • While historical data does validate its merits, the reasons behind its effectiveness remain

    雖然歷史數據確實驗證了其優點,但其有效性背後的原因仍然是

  • a subject of debate.

    一個爭論的話題。

  • As you plan your investment strategies or even just your Halloween celebrations, it's

    當您規劃您的投資策略,甚至只是您的萬聖節慶祝活動時,

  • always wise to be informed and consider all factors.

    了解情況並考慮所有因素總是明智的。

  • Whether you believe in the Halloween strategy or not, it's undeniably a treat to learn about!

    無論您是否相信萬聖節策略,這無疑是值得學習的享受!