As the season of November approaches, it's a good time to delve into an intriguing market

隨著十一月季節的臨近，現在是深入研究有趣的市場

phenomenon known as the "Halloween Effect."

現象（稱為“萬聖節效應”）的好時機。

So let's unwrap this concept with PAA

因此，讓我們用 PAA 來解釋這個概念

Before we dive in, it's important to note that the following discussion is for informational

。在深入討論之前，請務必注意以下討論僅供參考

and educational purposes only.

和教育目的。

I don't provide financial advice, nor should this be taken as such.

我不提供財務建議，也不應如此對待。

Always consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

在做出任何投資決定之前，請務必諮詢金融專業人士。

This is simply a discussion about the phenomenon known as the "Halloween Effect."

這只是關於「萬聖節效應」現象的討論。

by a random guy on the internet who knows how to Google.

由網路上一個知道如何谷歌的隨機人提供。

That being said, let's talk about

話雖如此，我們來談談

What is the Halloween Strategy and Halloween Effect?

什麼是萬聖節策略和萬聖節效應？

The Halloween strategy, sometimes referred to as the Halloween effect or Halloween indicator,

萬聖節策略，有時稱為萬聖節效應或萬聖節指標，

is a market timing approach.

是一種市場擇時方法。

Here's the gist:

重點如下：

Stocks tend to perform better from October 31 (Halloween) to May 1 than from May through

從 10 月 31 日（萬聖節）到 5 月 1 日，股票的表現往往比

October's end.

5 月到10 月底的表現好。

Advocates of this strategy propose buying stocks in November, holding them over the

這項策略的倡導者建議在 11 月購買股票，持有它們過冬

winter, and then selling in April.

，然後在 4 月出售。

They often advise reducing stock investments during the summer months or even avoiding

他們經常建議在夏季減少股票投資

them altogether.

甚至完全避免投資。

This approach starkly contrasts the classic 'buy-and-hold' strategy, where investors maintain

這種方法與經典的「買入並長期持有」策略形成鮮明對比，在這種策略中，投資者

their positions for the long term, irrespective of market fluctuations.

無論市場波動如何，都長期維持其頭寸。

And this strategy is by no mean a new thing, so let's talk about:

這個策略絕對不是什麼新鮮事，所以我們來談談：

Historical Roots of the Halloween Strategy

萬聖節策略的歷史根源

Halloween Strategy's lineage traces back to the saying "sell in May and go away."

萬聖節策略的血統可以追溯到「五月賣出」這句話。

There's even a longer version: "Sell in May, go away, come again St. Leger Day."

甚至還有更長的版本：“五月出售，走開，聖萊傑日再來。”

The St. Leger Stakes is a famous horse race held in Doncaster, England, and is one of

聖萊傑錦標賽 (St. Leger Stakes) 是在英國唐卡斯特舉行的一項著名賽馬比賽，也是

the oldest horse races in the world, dating back to 1776.

世界上最古老的賽馬比賽之一，其歷史可以追溯到 1776 年。

St. Leger Day usually falls in mid-September and marks the final leg of the English Triple

聖萊傑日通常在9 月中旬，標誌著賽事的最後一站英國

Crown of thoroughbred horse racing.

純種賽馬三冠王。

The relevance of St. Leger Day to the stock market is primarily symbolic.

聖萊傑日與股市的相關性主要是像徵性的。

The idea is that by St. Leger Day, summer is concluding, and many British elites and

這個想法是，到聖萊傑日，夏天即將結束，許多

financial professionals who might have taken time off or been preoccupied with the social

可能休假或專注於社交季節

season (including horse racing) would return to the city and refocus on business.

（包括賽馬）的英國精英和金融專業人士將返回城市並重新專注於商業。

As a result, market activity might pick up again.

因此，市場活動可能會再次回升。

Historical context provides a fascinating backdrop.

歷史背景提供了迷人的背景。

Many believe this investment pattern originated in the UK, where during summer, the privileged

許多人認為這種投資模式起源於英國，在夏季，特權菁英

elite would migrate from London to their countryside estates.

會從倫敦遷移到他們的鄉村莊園。

This seasonal migration meant they'd often neglect their investment portfolios until

這種季節性遷移意味著他們經常忽視自己的投資組合，直到

their return in September.

九月回來為止。

The modern world offers a parallel with financial professionals taking vacations during the

現代世界與金融專業人士在夏季休假類似

summer, possibly impacting market dynamics.

，這可能會影響市場動態。

Cool as this idea sounds, just going by old patterns can be a bit risky for today's investors.

儘管這個想法聽起來很酷，但對於今天的投資者來說，僅僅遵循舊的模式可能有點冒險。

Just because something happened in the past doesn't mean it'll play out the same way now.

過去發生的事情並不意味著現在也會以同樣的方式發生。

Ok, so

好吧，那麼

Does the Data Support the Halloween Strategy?

數據支持萬聖節策略嗎？

According to a study titled "Halloween Effect in developed stock markets: A historical perspective"

根據2020年發表的題為《發達股市的萬聖節效應：歷史視角》的研究顯示

published in 2020, in the US stock market and other developed markets, the Halloween

，在美國股市和其他已開發市場，萬聖節

effect was only noticeable starting from the middle of the 20th century.

效應從20世紀中葉開始才變得明顯。

So the plot twist is, this isn't some ancient financial magic trick.

所以情節的轉折是，這不是什麼古老的金融魔術。

It's kinda like thinking your grandfather's secret BBQ sauce recipe has been passed down

這有點像你以為你祖父的燒烤醬秘方已經傳承了

for centuries, only to find out he picked it up from a magazine in the '60s.

幾個世紀，卻發現他是在 60 年代從一本雜誌上學到的。

This research, published in International Economics, dives deep into the historical

這項發表在《國際經濟學》上的研究深入探討了

evaluation of the Halloween effect on the US stock market and its counterparts in other

萬聖節效應對美國股市以及

developed markets such as the UK, France, Canada, Germany, and Japan.

英國、法國、加拿大、德國和日本等其他已開發市場的影響的歷史評估。

Utilizing various statistical techniques, including average analysis, Student's t-test,

該研究 利用各種統計技術，包括平均值分析、學生 t 檢定、

ANOVA, and the Mann-Whitney test, alongside a trading simulation approach, the research

變異數分析和曼惠特尼檢驗，以及交易模擬方法，

investigates the evolution of the Halloween Effect.

調查了萬聖節效應的演變。

The findings are quite intriguing.

研究結果非常有趣。

In the US stock market and other developed markets, the Halloween effect was only noticeable

在美國股市和其他已開發市場，萬聖節效應

starting from the middle of the 20th century.

從20世紀中葉才開始明顯。

This means that, for a significant period in history, there was no discernible pattern

這意味著，在歷史上一個重要的時期， 股市趨勢中

linked to Halloween in stock market trends.

沒有與萬聖節相關的明顯模式 。

More recent data, however, suggests that the Halloween effect is still present in the US

然而，最近的數據表明，萬聖節效應仍然存在於美國

stock market as well as in most of the other developed markets.

股市以及大多數其他已開發市場。

This recurrence provides opportunities for savvy investors to construct trading strategies

這種重複為精明的投資者提供了建立

that potentially outperform the market average.

可能超越市場平均水平的

This observation underscores the adaptability of markets and their responsiveness to cultural

交易策略的機會 。 這項觀察強調了市場的適應性及其對文化

and social events.

和社會事件的反應。

In essence, the research supports the Adaptive Market Hypothesis, which suggests that markets

從本質上講，該研究支持適應性市場假說，該假說認為市場的

evolve and adapt based on a combination of rational and irrational behaviors of market

演變和適應是基於市場

participants.

參與者的理性和非理性行為的結合。

In the context of Halloween, this means that while consumers are shelling out billions

在萬聖節的背景下，這意味著雖然消費者在慶祝活動上花費了數十億美元

on festivities, traders and investors are leveraging historical trends linked to the

，但交易者和投資者正在利用與該

season for their strategies.

季節相關的歷史趨勢來制定策略。

So

那

Why Does the Halloween Strategy Work?

為什麼萬聖節策略有效呢？

While there is no definitive explanation for why the Halloween strategy has shown some

雖然沒有明確解釋為什麼萬聖節策略

success historically, several factors may contribute to this phenomenon:

在歷史上取得了一些成功，但有幾個因素可能會導致這種現象：季節性：從歷史上看，

Seasonality: Historically, stock market returns have exhibited a seasonal pattern, with returns

股市回報呈現出季節性模式，回報

typically being stronger in the winter months and weaker in the summer months.

通常在冬季較強，而在冬季較弱。夏季。

This pattern may be due to various factors, such as investor psychology, holiday-related

這種模式可能是由於多種因素造成的，例如投資者心理、假期相關的

trading patterns, or changes in market sentiment.

交易模式或市場情緒的變化。

Summer Vacations: During the summer months, many institutional investors and traders take

暑假：在夏季，許多機構投資者和交易者都會

vacations, which can lead to lower trading volumes and less market activity.

休假，這可能會導致交易量下降和市場活動減少。

This reduced liquidity can make the market more volatile and susceptible to price swings,

流動性的減少可能會使市場更加不穩定，並且容易受到價格波動的影響，

potentially leading to lower returns.

這可能導致回報率降低。

Tax Considerations: In some countries, tax considerations may play a role in the Halloween

稅務考量：在某些國家，稅務考量可能會影響萬聖節

strategy's effectiveness.

策略的有效性。

An example could be Australia, where the fiscal year ends on June 30.

澳洲就是一個例子，該國的財政年度於 6 月 30 日結束。在

In this case, selling stocks in May would allow investors to realize capital gains or

這種情況下，5 月出售股票將允許投資者在

losses just before the end of the tax year, potentially for tax planning purposes such

納稅年度結束前 實現資本收益或 損失，可能用於稅務規劃目的，

as offsetting gains with losses or vice versa.

例如抵消收益造成損失，反之亦然。

Behavioral Factors: Investor behavior and sentiment can also play a role in market movements.

行為因素：投資人的行為和情緒也可以在市場走勢中發揮作用。

During the summer months, investors may be more risk-averse due to factors like vacation

在夏季，由於假期

schedules or concerns about market volatility, leading to a preference for less risky assets.

安排或對市場波動的擔憂等因素，投資者可能會更加規避風險，從而偏好風險較低的資產。

Historical Anomaly: It's important to note that the Halloween strategy's effectiveness

歷史異常：值得注意的是，萬聖節策略的有效性

may be a historical anomaly, and there's no guarantee that it will continue to work in

可能是歷史異常，並且不能保證它在

the future.

未來會繼續發揮作用。

Market conditions can change, and past performance is not always indicative of future results.

市場狀況可能會發生變化，過去的表現並不總是預示未來的結果。

However, all of these theories have their critics.

然而，所有這些理論都受到批評。

For instance, the advent of electronic trading allows investors to trade from anywhere – be

例如，電子交易的出現使投資者可以在任何地方進行交易——無論是

it a beach or a boardroom.

海灘還是董事會會議室。

The truth remains elusive, and the Halloween strategy stands as a captivating mystery.

真相仍然難以捉摸，萬聖節策略仍然是一個迷人的謎團。

So Does Halloween Affect the Economy in General?

那麼萬聖節對整體經濟有影響嗎？

Outside the stock market, Halloween itself has a significant economic impact.

在股市之外，萬聖節本身也具有重大的經濟影響。

In 2021, for example, Americans anticipated spending a whopping $10.14 billion on Halloween

例如，2021 年，美國人預計在萬聖節慶祝

festivities, a figure that has witnessed steady growth over the years.

活動上的支出高達 101.4 億美元，這一數字多年來一直在穩步增長。

Halloween Effect also seems have some influence on the soft commodities market in general.

萬聖節效應似乎也對整個軟商品市場產生了一些影響。

A study done in 2021 published in Agricultural Economics looked at how the Halloween spirit

2021 年發表在《農業經濟學》上的一項研究著眼於萬聖節精神

might affect the markets of certain goods, particularly “soft commodities” like cocoa,

可能如何影響某些商品的市場，特別是可可、

coffee, cotton, and a few others.

咖啡、棉花等「軟商品」。

The research aimed to scrutinize the Halloween effect in the markets of basic soft commodities

該研究旨在審視 1999 年至 2020 年相當長一段時間內

over a substantial period, from 1999 to 2020.

基本軟商品市場的萬聖節效應。

The authors incorporated a variety of statistical tests and methods in their study, including

作者在研究中採用了多種統計檢定和方法，包括

the two-sample t-test, the rank-sum Wilcoxon test, as well as examining the autoregressive

雙樣本 t 檢定、排名-sum Wilcoxon 檢驗，以及檢查自迴歸

conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) effect.

條件異方差 (ARCH) 效應。

In addition to this, they also looked into how the January effect—a phenomenon where

除此之外，他們也研究了一月效應（即一

stock prices tend to increase in the month of January more than in other months—might

月份股價漲幅往往高於其他月份的現象）如何

interact with the Halloween effect on these markets.

與萬聖節效應對這些市場產生交互作用。

The study found a noteworthy Halloween effect on the cotton market, significantly impacted

研究發現萬聖節對棉花市場的影響值得注意，

by the January effect, which is a trend where financial markets, including commodities,

一月效應是一種趨勢，包括大宗商品在內的金融市場

tend to see a boost in prices during the month of January.

在一月份價格往往會上漲。

Conversely, they identified a significant reverse Halloween effect in the sugar market.

相反，他們發現食糖市場有顯著的反向萬聖節效應。

The study underscores the importance of considering seasonal effects when analyzing commodity

該研究強調了在分析商品市場時考慮季節性影響的重要性

markets, as these effects can play a significant role in price movements and market behavior.

，因為這些影響可以在價格變動和市場行為中發揮重要作用。

The Halloween Effect also seems to affect the securitized real estate market too, at

萬聖節效應似乎也影響了證券化房地產市場，至少

least in Hong Kong and the US.

在香港和美國是如此。

Back in 2015, two researchers, Hui and Chan, did a study to find out more about this.

早在 2015 年，兩位研究人員 Hui 和 Chan 就進行了一項研究，以了解更多相關資訊。

They published their findings in a journal called Habitat International.

他們在一份名為《人居國際》的雜誌上發表了他們的研究結果。

They looked at different parts of the world, including five countries in Asia (Hong Kong,

他們從 1996 年到 2013 年

China, Japan, Thailand, and Malaysia), as well as the U.S., Canada, and Germany) from

考察了世界不同地區，包括亞洲五個國家（香港、

1996 to 2013.

中國、日本、泰國和馬來西亞），以及美國、加拿大和德國）。

They used a special tool called the Shiryaev-Zhou index, a statistical method developed by Albert

他們使用了一種名為「 Shiryaev-Zhou指數是Albert Shiryaev和Jiang Zhou開發的統計方法

Shiryaev and Jiang Zhou, used in financial markets to predict drastic changes or trend

，用於預測金融市場的劇烈變化或趨勢

reversals to check if Halloween and the start of the year (January) had any special effects

逆轉，以檢查萬聖節和年初（一月）是否對

on the housing market.

房地產市場有特殊影響。

What they found was pretty interesting.

他們的發現非常有趣。

Halloween Effects seems to make a noticeable difference in the securitized real estate

萬聖節效應似乎 對香港和美國等地的

market in places like Hong Kong and the U.S., but not really in the other countries they

證券化房地產市場產生了顯著影響 ，但在他們

looked at.

研究的其他國家卻沒有真正產生影響。

As for the January effect, it was only a thing in Hong Kong.

至於一月的影響，那隻是香港的事。

They thought maybe these effects weren't as strong during tough economic times, or

他們認為，也許這些影響在經濟困難時期就沒那麼強烈，也

maybe because people started to know about these effects, they changed the way they acted,

可能是因為人們開始了解這些影響，他們改變了自己的行為方式，

making these effects less predictable.

使這些影響更難以預測。

So, in simpler words, Halloween isn't just a time for fun and games; it might also be

因此，簡單地說，萬聖節不僅僅是一個玩樂和遊戲的時刻；更是一個歡樂的時刻。這也可能是

a time when the housing market in certain places gets a bit of a shake-up.

某些地方的房地產市場出現一些動盪的時期。

And this is something that's pretty interesting for people who are into studying markets and

對於那些熱衷於研究市場和金錢的人來說，這是非常有趣的事情

money!

！

The Halloween strategy offers a fascinating perspective on market timing and investment

萬聖節策略為市場時機和投資

approaches.

方法提供了一個令人著迷的視角。

While historical data does validate its merits, the reasons behind its effectiveness remain

雖然歷史數據確實驗證了其優點，但其有效性背後的原因仍然是

a subject of debate.

一個爭論的話題。

As you plan your investment strategies or even just your Halloween celebrations, it's

當您規劃您的投資策略，甚至只是您的萬聖節慶祝活動時，

always wise to be informed and consider all factors.

了解情況並考慮所有因素總是明智的。

Whether you believe in the Halloween strategy or not, it's undeniably a treat to learn about!

無論您是否相信萬聖節策略，這無疑是值得學習的享受！

If you made it to the end of the video, chances are that you enjoy learning what people also

如果您看完了視頻，那麼您很可能喜歡了解人們

ask on Google.

在 Google 上提出的問題。

But let's face it, reading PAA yourself will be a pain.

但讓我們面對現實吧，自己閱讀 PAA 會很痛苦。

So here's the deal, I will do the reading for you and upload a video compiling some

所以協議是這樣的，我會為你閱讀並

fun PAAs once a week, all you have to do is to hit the subscribe button and the bell icon

每週上傳一次 編譯一些有趣的 PAA 的視頻

so you won't miss any PAA report that I compile.

，你所要做的就是點擊訂閱按鈕和響鈴圖標 ，這樣你就不會錯過我發布的任何 PAA 報告。編譯。

So just do it right now.

所以現在就做吧。

Bye!

再見！